UVM ERES 2010 (residential) 9 Overview of the past (repeating itself?)
UVM ERES 2010 A market going crazy…. 10 Source: data processing by Reddys Group spa on data Censis, Agenzia del Territorio - Servizio Statistiche Giudiziarie The Honeycomb cycle (Residential property in Lombardy)
UVM ERES The PRESENT
UVM ERES after 3 years 12 Overview of some current indicators N° sales from 200 to 2007 province 67 to 72% / capitals 33 to 28%) The shift towards deurbanization was due to Moving out to buy a better, cheaper home New stock available outside, + gardens ! 2009: there had been 600k sales: - 15,6% national level (I sem 2009 on I sem 2008) … of which – 12% on capital cities / -17% in province The back to town shift province to capitals due to Difficulties in commuting Lower periphery prices Vs province prices
UVM ERES after 3 years 13 Overview of some current indicators - prices from 2000 to 2007 prices increasing, then decreasing: National level: – 6,3% (2009/2008) End 2008 on I sem 2008: -3,6% I sem 2009 on II sem 2008: -2,7% (decline reducing?) Focus on cities: Milan and Florence better than average lower prices in cities due to inelasticity of new built (province) Peripheries versus city centers peripheries loosing more in value: lower quality homes Less immigrants demand for old homes (in peripher.)
UVM ERES The FUTURE
UVM ERES 2010 Overlook, a correlation 15 Italian GDP and constructons. Euroconstruct onCresme et Al. - Dec 2008
UVM ERES 2010 Real Estate and the Economy 16
UVM ERES 2010 The Italian market (residential) 17 Overview In general, Demand wise we can have three scenarios. The refer to the economic forecasts : if UPSIDE, then ALL TARGETS (residential) will recover in 2010 if BASE scenario: in 2010 we will have only the NEED TO BUY NEED TO RENT ones active in the market, and in 2011 ALL TARGETS if DOWNTURN, we will have NEED TO BUY in 2011 and ALL TARGETS active in (NEED TO BUY= have savings and need more space, more rooms (consolidated families whose children are growing) NO BUY: those who can only rent (young couples, no children), professionals singles, senior couples (still using their old home, empty nesters)
UVM ERES 2010 The market cycle in the current setting : forecasts 18 Fonte: nostra elaborazione su fonti varie tra cui Scenari Immobiliari, Banca dItalia.
UVM ERES Table 1, Rents : popular (ERP, 1 e 2), sustainable (ERS, in the box, 3 -4), and free market Source: our calculatios on : ACER, Fondazione Cariplo, Co-Housing Venture, Scenari Immobiliari Whare are we now?
UVM ERES THE FUTURE 2 What next? Sustainable homes (social housing – Edilizia Privata Sociale) in Italy
UVM ERES 2010 A shift in the residential mindset 21 From 100 B.C. to 1800 Brick and mortars (the roman insula to the condo.) In 1900 the first revolution Electricity – hydraulics 2006 – 2020 the second revolution Energy saving and sustainability In 2011 the third revolution The ethic side, management and common services. Institutional investors
UVM ERES 2010 S.H.- What is it? Some cases 22 Social Housing 360° - arch. LAURA ROCCA Fonte: RoccAtelier (www.roccatelier.it)www.roccatelier.it E.R.S. a Crema, Fondazione Cariplo, Fondo Abitare Sociale - architetti D2U Fonte: Jacopo della Fontana (
UVM ERES Social Main Street – Bicocca, Milano- arch. DANTE BENINI Fonte: studio Urbam – C.d.O. Concorso Figino (Fond Cariplo) arch. CINO ZUCCHI e Avventura Urbana Fonte: S.H.- What is it? Some cases
UVM ERES Some models to learn from : Social Housing in the Netherlands
UVM ERES 2010 Social Housing in the Netherlands 25
UVM ERES 2010 Social Housing in the Netherlands 26
UVM ERES 2010 Social Housing in the Netherlands 27
UVM ERES 2010 CONCLUSIONS 28
Uberto Visconti di Massino Milano Corso Italia, Milano Tel Fax Roma Via XX Settembre, Roma Tel Fax GRAZIE - THANK YOU !