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World Trade Indicators 2008 Gianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam Singapore, July 18 th, 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "World Trade Indicators 2008 Gianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam Singapore, July 18 th, 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 World Trade Indicators Gianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam Singapore, July 18 th, 2008

2 What is the WTI Project?  Comprehensive database of trade-related indicators of policy and performance  Yearly data from (thanks to ITC for ))  Information on other trade databases and links  Online Tool  Country rankings (default and customized)  Charts, tables, and maps (default and customized)  Users can choose time periods and country groups  210 Country Trade-at-a-Glance (TAAG) tables  139 Country briefs  Overview report

3 Why?  Provide impetus for trade policy changes by highlighting performance relative to competitors/partners  Support trade negotiations and policy design by facilitating overtime and cross-country comparison of different dimensions of policy affecting trade outcomes  Highlight gaps in the data

4 Has Some New Indicators  Database assembles existing information and provides new indicators  Production weighted tariff averages  Share of tariff lines with a zero MFN tariff rate  MFN zero duty imports and exports  Imports and exports to/from partners in FTA and CUs  Utilization rates and value of EU and US preferences  Extent of services trade liberalization commitments  Index of import concentration from UNCTAD  Export and import destination concentraton indices  Share of top 5 exports in total exports

5 Structure of WTI database: organizing for users TRADE OUTCOME TRADE POLICY EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT BUSINESS/ INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT TRADE FACILITATION

6 WTI Functionalities  Views (see handout)  Country Rankings  Country Snapshots  Country Comparisons  Overtime Comparisons  Map

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15 Ranking by trade policy I: 2006, top 20, MFN TTRI Indicators CategoryTrade Policy TTRI (MFN applied tariff) - All Goods Rank Country latest 1 Hong Kong, China 0 1 Singapore 0 3 Switzerland Turkey Papua New Guinea Mauritius Iceland Kazakhstan Norway Israel United States Moldova United Arab Emirates Australia Canada Kyrgyz Republic New Zealand Brunei Taiwan, China Malaysia

16 Ranking by trade policy II: 2007, top 20, MFN Applied 2007 Tariff Average 2006 import weighted Indicators CategoryTrade Policy MFN applied tariff - Weighted Average - All Goods (%) RankCountry latest 1 Hong Kong, China 0 1 Macao, China 0 1 Singapore0 3 United States Mauritius Georgia Norway Taiwan, China Papua New Guinea Japan Haiti Israel Iceland Switzerland EU New Zealand Philippines Canada Moldova Indonesia Kyrgyz Republic

17 Ranking by policy: latest , top 20, equal weights

18 Ranking by policy: latest , top 20 developing, equal weights Overall RankCountryTrade Policy External Environment Institutional EnvironmentTrade Facilitation 11 Malaysia Turkey Chile Latvia South Africa Hungary Slovak Republic Lithuania Papua New Guinea Bulgaria Poland Mauritius Mexico Thailand Peru China Oman Romania Kazakhstan Mongolia

19 Ranking by policy: latest , bottom 20 all, equal weights

20 MFN tariff, import weighted Tariffs have been falling, but remain high in low-income countries and SAS, MNA, and SSA. Singapore has close to zero tariffs. MFN tariff, import weighted

21 In agriculture most countries are more protectionist, esp. EAP, SAS, MNA, Hi-OECD. Singapore’s agric. tariffs are among lowest. MFN tariff, import weighted, agriculture

22 Some countries increased their tariffs in recent years ( but not Madagascar)

23 Services trade commitments vary among countries: ECA and Hi-OECD stand out at top. SSA is at bottom.

24 SAS exports face highest tariff barriers; MNA’s, ECA’s, Singapore’s among lowest ROW applied tariff, export weighted

25 A high share of exports is MFN duty free, especially for Singapore

26 Trade agreements are important for many countries, esp. Singapore, but less so for low-income countries Share of Exports to preferential partners, %

27 Value of EU and US preferences vary from almost nil (as for Singapore) to modest, even for most LDCs as a % of bilateral exports

28 Most country groups had substantial real trade growth, but low-income countries’ and Singapore’s slowed down in 2007 Real growth of trade (g+s, %)

29 Searching for global patterns: countries with lower tariffs have higher merchandise trade integration

30 Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate are more integrated Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate are more integrated

31 Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate have higher manufacturing shares ALB ATG ARG ARM AUS AUT AZE BLR BEL BLZ BEN BOL BIH BRA BGR BDI CAN CPV CHL CHN COL CRI CIV HRV CZE DNK DMA ECU EGY SLV EST FJI FIN FRA GMB GEO DEU GHA GRC GRD GTM GUY HND HKG HUN ISL IND IDN IRL ISR ITA JAM JPN JOR KAZ KOR KGZ LVA LTU LUX MKD MDG MYS MDV MUS MEX MDA MNG MAR MOZ NAM NLD NZL NIC NER NOR OMN PAK PAN PRY PER PHL POL PRT ROM RUS SAU SYC SGP SVN ZAF ESP LKA KNA LCA VCT SDN SWZ SWE CHE SYR TWN TZA THA TGO TTO TUN TUR UGA UKR GBR USA URY VEN VNM YEM ZMB Manufacture share in export, Doing Business Rank,

32 Searching for global patterns: countries with better regulatory quality have stronger export diversification ALB DZA ADO AGO ATG ARG ARM ABW AUS AUT AZE BHS BHR BGD BRB BLR BEL BLZ BEN BMU BTN BOL BIH BWA BRA BRN BGR BFA BDI KHM CMR CAN CPV CAF CHL CHN COL COM ZAR COG CRI CIV HRV CUB CYP CZE DNK DJI DMA DOM ECU EGY SLV GNQ ERI EST ETH FJI FIN FRA GAB GMB GEO DEU GHA GRC GRD GTM GIN GNB GUY HTI HND HKG HUN ISL IND IDN IRN IRQ IRL ISR ITA JAM JPN JOR KAZ KEN KIR PRK KOR KWT KGZ LAO LVA LBN LSO LBY LTU LUX MAC MKD MDG MWI MYS MDV MLI MLT MRT MUS MEX FSM MDA MNG MAR MOZ MMR NAM NPL NLD NCL NZL NIC NER NGA NOR OMN PAK PAN PNG PRY PER PHL POL PRT QAT ROM RUS RWA WSM STP SAU SEN SRB SYC SLE SGP SVK SVN SLB ZAF ESP LKA KNA LCA VCT SDN SUR SWZ SWE CHE SYR TWN TJK TZA THA TMP TGO TON TTO TUN TUR TKM UGA UKR ARE GBR USA URY UZB VUT VEN VNM YEM ZMB ZWE WGI-Regulatory Quality, Export Concentration Index,

33 Searching for global patterns: countries with more diversified exports have lower export growth volatility (00-06)

34 Trade Policy: MFN TTRI 2006 Singapore’s rank is 1 st of 125

35 External Environment: MA-TTRI (incl. preferences), 2006 Singapore’s rank is 43 rd of 125

36 Institutional Environment: Ease of Doing Business, 2007 Singapore’s rank is 1 st of 178

37 BRIICS’ Trade Facilitation: Logistics Performance Index 2006 Singapore’s rank is 1 st of 151

38 BRIICS’ Trade Outcome: Real Trade Growth, 2007 Singapore’s rank is 80 th of 160

39 Global patterns and trends: summary findings  Tariff protection, with or without the inclusion of preferences, has fallen in all regions and income groups from the mid-1990s to 2007  In low income countries, it fell by over 45%.  High income countries still have lowest averages, but they have higher nontariff barriers, greater tariff escalation and dispersion, and much higher maximum tariffs than low-income countries. These barriers are especially high in areas of export interest to developing countries, esp. agric & garments.  Barriers to services trade are still high, especially in low-income but also in middle income countries.

40 Global patterns and trends: summary findings (cont.)  There is a significant gap in the quality of trade facilitation between high-income and developing countries, but South Africa is 24 th and China 30 th of 150.  Countries whose institutional environments are better tend to have a higher share of manufactures in their goods exports, have lower export concentration, and tend to be more integrated in the world economy.  Over the past decade, countries with lower barriers have tended to have stronger, more consistent trade and export performance

41 Singapore’s TAAG: summary findings  Best overall trade policy regime, thanks to a virtually duty free tariff schedule, but…  substantial tariffs on some agricultural imports  high non-tariff restrictions (at least as of 2001)  weak services trade liberalization commitments  High openness of foreign markets  Best business environment and trade facilitation  Solid trade/export growth in recent years, but…  little change in merch/services export structure  some increase in export product concentration  halving of growth in 2007

42 Next Steps  Improve website functionalities  Online-only update of WTI 2008 database and TAAGs by December 2008  Produce WTI 2009 database, ranking tool, TAAGs, briefs, and overview report by September 2009  or  or 


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