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World Trade Indicators 2008 Gianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam Singapore, July 18 th, 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "World Trade Indicators 2008 Gianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam Singapore, July 18 th, 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 World Trade Indicators 2008 http://www.worldbank.org/wti2008 http://www.worldbank.org/wti2008 Gianni Zanini and Roumeen Islam Singapore, July 18 th, 2008

2 What is the WTI Project?  Comprehensive database of trade-related indicators of policy and performance  Yearly data from 1995-2007 (thanks to ITC for 2005-07))  Information on other trade databases and links  Online Tool  Country rankings (default and customized)  Charts, tables, and maps (default and customized)  Users can choose time periods and country groups  210 Country Trade-at-a-Glance (TAAG) tables  139 Country briefs  Overview report

3 Why?  Provide impetus for trade policy changes by highlighting performance relative to competitors/partners  Support trade negotiations and policy design by facilitating overtime and cross-country comparison of different dimensions of policy affecting trade outcomes  Highlight gaps in the data

4 Has Some New Indicators  Database assembles existing information and provides new indicators  Production weighted tariff averages  Share of tariff lines with a zero MFN tariff rate  MFN zero duty imports and exports  Imports and exports to/from partners in FTA and CUs  Utilization rates and value of EU and US preferences  Extent of services trade liberalization commitments  Index of import concentration from UNCTAD  Export and import destination concentraton indices  Share of top 5 exports in total exports

5 Structure of WTI database: organizing for users TRADE OUTCOME TRADE POLICY EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT BUSINESS/ INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT TRADE FACILITATION

6 WTI Functionalities  Views (see handout)  Country Rankings  Country Snapshots  Country Comparisons  Overtime Comparisons  Map

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15 Ranking by trade policy I: 2006, top 20, MFN TTRI Indicators CategoryTrade Policy TTRI (MFN applied tariff) - All Goods Rank Country 2006-07 latest 1 Hong Kong, China 0 1 Singapore 0 3 Switzerland 0.97689 4 Turkey 1.52125 5 Papua New Guinea 1.68763 6 Mauritius 1.96527 7 Iceland 1.98393 8 Kazakhstan 2.05571 9 Norway 2.09762 10 Israel 2.34899 11 United States 2.42359 12 Moldova 2.94565 13 United Arab Emirates 2.95915 14 Australia 3.08191 15 Canada 3.33259 16 Kyrgyz Republic 3.5005 17 New Zealand 3.5475 18 Brunei 3.74792 19 Taiwan, China 3.75499 20 Malaysia 3.77901

16 Ranking by trade policy II: 2007, top 20, MFN Applied 2007 Tariff Average 2006 import weighted Indicators CategoryTrade Policy MFN applied tariff - Weighted Average - All Goods (%) RankCountry2006-07 latest 1 Hong Kong, China 0 1 Macao, China 0 1 Singapore0 3 United States 1.93262486 4 Mauritius 2.073408871 5 Georgia 2.252786225 6 Norway 2.303373029 7 Taiwan, China 2.35365766 8 Papua New Guinea 2.37186849 9 Japan 2.83779977 10 Haiti 2.868434059 11 Israel 2.883404345 12 Iceland 3.035155241 13 Switzerland 3.035267672 14 EU 3.106663483 15 New Zealand 3.386293157 16 Philippines 3.406404311 17 Canada 3.706849297 18 Moldova 3.780697066 19 Indonesia 3.812031172 20 Kyrgyz Republic 3.923271407

17 Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, top 20, equal weights

18 Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, top 20 developing, equal weights Overall RankCountryTrade Policy External Environment Institutional EnvironmentTrade Facilitation 11 Malaysia20422427 18 Turkey4375734 23 Chile65163332 27 Latvia21732242 33 South Africa62493524 34 Hungary21734535 Slovak Republic21733250 36 Lithuania21732658 39 Papua New Guinea558495 40 Bulgaria64364655 41 Poland21737440 42 Mauritius64427133 43 Mexico10744456 44 Thailand71981531 46 Peru76335859 47 China57598330 48 Oman109264948 50 Romania116234851 Kazakhstan83071134 52 Mongolia492652137

19 Ranking by policy: latest 2006-07, bottom 20 all, equal weights

20 MFN tariff, import weighted Tariffs have been falling, but remain high in low-income countries and SAS, MNA, and SSA. Singapore has close to zero tariffs. MFN tariff, import weighted

21 In agriculture most countries are more protectionist, esp. EAP, SAS, MNA, Hi-OECD. Singapore’s agric. tariffs are among lowest. MFN tariff, import weighted, agriculture

22 Some countries increased their tariffs in recent years ( but not Madagascar)

23 Services trade commitments vary among countries: ECA and Hi-OECD stand out at top. SSA is at bottom.

24 SAS exports face highest tariff barriers; MNA’s, ECA’s, Singapore’s among lowest ROW applied tariff, export weighted

25 A high share of exports is MFN duty free, especially for Singapore

26 Trade agreements are important for many countries, esp. Singapore, but less so for low-income countries Share of Exports to preferential partners, %

27 Value of EU and US preferences vary from almost nil (as for Singapore) to modest, even for most LDCs as a % of bilateral exports

28 Most country groups had substantial real trade growth, but low-income countries’ and Singapore’s slowed down in 2007 Real growth of trade (g+s, %)

29 Searching for global patterns: countries with lower tariffs have higher merchandise trade integration

30 Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate are more integrated Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate are more integrated

31 Searching for global patterns: countries with better business climate have higher manufacturing shares ALB ATG ARG ARM AUS AUT AZE BLR BEL BLZ BEN BOL BIH BRA BGR BDI CAN CPV CHL CHN COL CRI CIV HRV CZE DNK DMA ECU EGY SLV EST FJI FIN FRA GMB GEO DEU GHA GRC GRD GTM GUY HND HKG HUN ISL IND IDN IRL ISR ITA JAM JPN JOR KAZ KOR KGZ LVA LTU LUX MKD MDG MYS MDV MUS MEX MDA MNG MAR MOZ NAM NLD NZL NIC NER NOR OMN PAK PAN PRY PER PHL POL PRT ROM RUS SAU SYC SGP SVN ZAF ESP LKA KNA LCA VCT SDN SWZ SWE CHE SYR TWN TZA THA TGO TTO TUN TUR UGA UKR GBR USA URY VEN VNM YEM ZMB 0 20 40 60 80 Manufacture share in export, 2005-06 050100150200 Doing Business Rank, 2005-06

32 Searching for global patterns: countries with better regulatory quality have stronger export diversification ALB DZA ADO AGO ATG ARG ARM ABW AUS AUT AZE BHS BHR BGD BRB BLR BEL BLZ BEN BMU BTN BOL BIH BWA BRA BRN BGR BFA BDI KHM CMR CAN CPV CAF CHL CHN COL COM ZAR COG CRI CIV HRV CUB CYP CZE DNK DJI DMA DOM ECU EGY SLV GNQ ERI EST ETH FJI FIN FRA GAB GMB GEO DEU GHA GRC GRD GTM GIN GNB GUY HTI HND HKG HUN ISL IND IDN IRN IRQ IRL ISR ITA JAM JPN JOR KAZ KEN KIR PRK KOR KWT KGZ LAO LVA LBN LSO LBY LTU LUX MAC MKD MDG MWI MYS MDV MLI MLT MRT MUS MEX FSM MDA MNG MAR MOZ MMR NAM NPL NLD NCL NZL NIC NER NGA NOR OMN PAK PAN PNG PRY PER PHL POL PRT QAT ROM RUS RWA WSM STP SAU SEN SRB SYC SLE SGP SVK SVN SLB ZAF ESP LKA KNA LCA VCT SDN SUR SWZ SWE CHE SYR TWN TJK TZA THA TMP TGO TON TTO TUN TUR TKM UGA UKR ARE GBR USA URY UZB VUT VEN VNM YEM ZMB ZWE 0 20 40 60 80 100 -3 -2012 WGI-Regulatory Quality, 2005-06 Export Concentration Index, 2005-06

33 Searching for global patterns: countries with more diversified exports have lower export growth volatility (00-06)

34 Trade Policy: MFN TTRI 2006 Singapore’s rank is 1 st of 125

35 External Environment: MA-TTRI (incl. preferences), 2006 Singapore’s rank is 43 rd of 125

36 Institutional Environment: Ease of Doing Business, 2007 Singapore’s rank is 1 st of 178

37 BRIICS’ Trade Facilitation: Logistics Performance Index 2006 Singapore’s rank is 1 st of 151

38 BRIICS’ Trade Outcome: Real Trade Growth, 2007 Singapore’s rank is 80 th of 160

39 Global patterns and trends: summary findings  Tariff protection, with or without the inclusion of preferences, has fallen in all regions and income groups from the mid-1990s to 2007  In low income countries, it fell by over 45%.  High income countries still have lowest averages, but they have higher nontariff barriers, greater tariff escalation and dispersion, and much higher maximum tariffs than low-income countries. These barriers are especially high in areas of export interest to developing countries, esp. agric & garments.  Barriers to services trade are still high, especially in low-income but also in middle income countries.

40 Global patterns and trends: summary findings (cont.)  There is a significant gap in the quality of trade facilitation between high-income and developing countries, but South Africa is 24 th and China 30 th of 150.  Countries whose institutional environments are better tend to have a higher share of manufactures in their goods exports, have lower export concentration, and tend to be more integrated in the world economy.  Over the past decade, countries with lower barriers have tended to have stronger, more consistent trade and export performance

41 Singapore’s TAAG: summary findings  Best overall trade policy regime, thanks to a virtually duty free tariff schedule, but…  substantial tariffs on some agricultural imports  high non-tariff restrictions (at least as of 2001)  weak services trade liberalization commitments  High openness of foreign markets  Best business environment and trade facilitation  Solid trade/export growth in recent years, but…  little change in merch/services export structure  some increase in export product concentration  halving of growth in 2007

42 Next Steps  Improve website functionalities  Online-only update of WTI 2008 database and TAAGs by December 2008  Produce WTI 2009 database, ranking tool, TAAGs, briefs, and overview report by September 2009  http://www.worldbank.org/wti or  http://www.worldbank.org/trade or http://www.worldbank.org/trade  http://worldbank.org/wbi http://worldbank.org/wbi http://worldbank.org/wbi


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