Presentation on theme: "The Art of Fibonacci Trading The Art of Fibonacci Trading Presented by Aditya & Gema."— Presentation transcript:
The Art of Fibonacci Trading The Art of Fibonacci Trading Presented by Aditya & Gema
KKnown as : Leonardo Pisanus Leonardus filius Bonacci Leonardus Bigollus ““Bigollo” – Tuscan dialect – meaning “blockhead” or “traveller” NNever referred to himself as “Fibonacci” MMedieval biographies and portraits rare: All pictures and statues of Leonardo of Pisa are only from artists’ imaginations EExact date of birth and death not known
Background History Leonardo was born 2 centuries after cultural and economic slowdown in Europe known as Dark Ages Commercial Revolution was well underway Both local and international trade occurred Mediterranean Sea linked regions representing different religions, political entities and cultures Three Italian cities dominated imports and exports: Venice, Genoa and Pisa Pisa: population of approx. 10,000 and was a “commune” – independent republic
More History… His father, Giuliemo, held a diplomatic post in Bugia (North Africa) Leonardo travelled extensively with his father: Egypt, Syria, Constantinople, Sicily, France, Greece Leonardo acquired much knowledge of various mathematical systems and texts during his travels Some argue he is not a true mathematician but only an author of a very successful text (Liber Abaci) Yet, he did also compile his own techniques, theorems and facts when he published his findings When we think of Fibonacci, we think of his introduction on the Hindu-Arabic numerals (HAN) to the Western world and the famous Fibonacci sequence
MORE ABOUT FIBONACCI •Fibonacci is one of general revelation from God to mankind that gave amazing contributions to science and a lot of life aspects •More about Fibonacci can be seen at www.goldennumber.net www.goldennumber.net
1. The Miracle 2. The Psychology of Golden Ratio 3. Fibonacci retracement 4. Fibonacci expansion 5. Retracement Vs Expansion 6. The power of 61.8 7. Basic of Elliot Wave Analysis 8. Aplying Elliot Wave Analysis & Fibonacci 9. Entry & Exit Rules 10. Identifying Divergence. 11. Aplying divergence, fibonacci & wave analysis
Special Thanks to: •Mr. Mochammad Yusuf (Chairman Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia) •Mr. Imran S. Dalimi •Mr. Cornelius Luca (Market Technician Association)
Percentage retracements •All trends are subject to price retracements and reversals. •Trend analysis should help you identify trend reversals.
Bullish Trend -Dikatakan Bullish jika harga membentuk pola HH (higher high) dan HL (Higher Low) dimana harga selalu membuat new high. Jika terjadi koreksi/penurunan tidak pernah melampaui harga low dari koreksi sebelumnya
Bullish Trend HH HL
Bullish Reversal Point HH LH LL HL LL Reversal Point Note: Reversal point ketika harga menembus trough sebelumnya
Bearish Trend -Dikatakan Bearish jika harga membentuk pola LH (Lower High) dan LL (Lower low) dimana harga selalu membuat new Low. Jika terjadi koreksi/Kenaikan tidak pernah melampaui harga high dari koreksi sebelumnya
Bearish Trend LH LL
Bearish Reversal Point LL HL LH HH Reversal Point Note: Reversal point ketika harga menembus peak sebelumnya
Sideways HH HL Kondisi sideways biasanya ditandai dengan terbentunknya “Chart Pattern”
Fibonacci Ratio •Angka Fibonacci: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, …. •Didapat dari menjumlahkan 2 bilangan sebelumnya •Golden Ratio (1.618) didapat dengan membagi angka setelah deret ke 13 dengan angka sebelumnya 233/144 = 1,618 377/233 = 1,618 610/377 = 1,618
Golden ratios of multiple moves The retracements of an initial trend remain in effect for as long as the original high and low remain in effect.
Fibonacci retracements (monthly)
Fibonacci retracements (weekly)
Fibonacci retracements (daily)
Fibonacci retracements (hourly)
Multiple Fibonacci retracements
Extensions When a rebound from retracement of a previous trend exceeds the previous high (in an uptrend) or low (in a downtrend), erase the old retracements and apply extensions.
•Retracement ratios are equally valued for targeting prices on extensions. •In the case of the Gann ratios, the extensions will be placed at: 1.125, 1.25, 1.375, 1.5, 1.625, 1.75 and 1.875. •In the case of the Fibonacci ratios, the extensions will be placed at: 1.382, 1.5 and 1.618. Extensions
Extensions – USD/BRL
Fibonacci Multipliers •Fibonacci divisions are divisions of 1. •Fibonacci expansions are Fibonacci ratios, which when multiplied equal 1. –.236 * 4.236 –.382 * 2.618 –.5 * 2 –.618 * 1.618 –.764 * 1.309
Fibonacci Multipliers Application •Assume B-A =.382 •Multiplier of.382 = 2.618 •If B-A = 100 points, then the target becomes 261.8 •Add 261.8 to A •The target is very aggressive B C A
The power of retracement 2/3 (Bearish) Skenario: Sell 1 lot di retracement 66. Sell double cover (2lot) di Retracement 100 1 lot di likuidasi di retracement 66 1 lot di hold sampai retracement 0 (Take profit
Oscillator Indicator •Relative Strength Index (RSI) •Stochastic Oscillator •Williams % R
Oscillator Signal •Overbought / Oversold •Crossover Signal •Convergence & Divergence
Overbought / Oversold
How to Trade Divergences www.babypips.com
Rules For Trading Divergence
Divergence Cheat Sheet
Types of Divergences Divergences, whether bullish or bearish in nature, have been classified according to their levels of strength. The strongest divergences are C CC Class A divergences; The medium are Class B divergences; and The weakest divergences are C CC Class C. The best trading opportunities are indicated by Class A divergences, while Class B and C divergences represent choppy market action and should generally be ignored.
CLASS A DIVERGENCE CLASS A DIVERGENCE •Class A bearish divergences occur when prices rise to a new high but the oscillator can only muster a high that is lower than exhibited on a previous rally. Class A bearish divergences often signal a sharp and significant reversal toward a downtrend. •Class A bullish divergences occur when prices reach a new low but an oscillator reaches a higher bottom than it reached during its previous decline. Class A bullish divergences are often the best signals of an impending sharp rally.
CLASS B DIVERGENCE CLASS B DIVERGENCE •Class B bearish divergences are illustrated by prices making a double top, with an oscillator tracing a lower second top.double top • Class B bullish divergences occur when prices trace a double bottom, with an oscillator tracing a higher second bottom.double bottom
CLASS C DIVERGENCE •Class C bearish divergences occur when prices rise to a new high but an indicator stops at the very same level it reached during the previous rally. •Class C bullish divergences occur when prices fall to a new low while the indicator traces a double bottom. Class C divergences are most indicative of market stagnation - bulls and bears are becoming neither stronger nor weaker.stagnation