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1 Ageing populations: a real challenge for Europe. Frank Lierman, Chief Economist Dexia Bank SRI Roadshow May 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Ageing populations: a real challenge for Europe. Frank Lierman, Chief Economist Dexia Bank SRI Roadshow May 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Ageing populations: a real challenge for Europe. Frank Lierman, Chief Economist Dexia Bank SRI Roadshow May 2011

2 2 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Ageing populations: a real challenge for Europe Ageing: a real world problem! Total cost of ageing Pensions in danger? Health care costs are increasing faster Risk of poverty Which solutions? Annexes

3 3 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Overview of the 2009 projection of age-related expenditure Total age-related spending GDP production function Population EUROPOP2008 Convergence scenario Labour Productivity Production function Labour force Cohort method Unemployment Convergence to ECFIN estimate of NAIRU Real interest rate (constant) Pensions National models Education Long-term care Health care Unemployment benefits Source: Commission services, EPC Ageing: a real world problem!

4 4 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Dependency ratio of older people (65+ / 15-64) AfricaAsiaEuropeLatin America North America OceaniaWorld Ageing: a real world problem! Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, 2007.

5 5 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Turnaround in the air? Ageing: a real world problem! Number of live births in EU-27, Number of deaths in EU-27, Source: European Commission, Demography Report 2010, Eurostat

6 6 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Total fertility rate and mean age of women at childbirth, Ageing: a real world problem! Source: European Commission, Demography Report 2010, Eurostat

7 7 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Population pyramid EU-27 Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report Ageing: a real world problem!

8 8 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Dependency ratio of elder people (65+ / 15-64) Ageing: a real world problem! Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report EUBelgiumGermanyFranceNetherlands

9 9 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Relative share of the age in 2008 (in % of total population) Ageing: a real world problem! Source Eurostat:

10 10 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Ageing: a real world problem! Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report Employment rates and Lisbon targets in the EU-27 (in %)

11 11 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Employment projections, composition of employment by age groups (Euro area) YoungOlderPrime Age Ageing: a real world problem! Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report

12 12 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Population change by component, EU-27, 1961 – 2009 Ageing: a real world problem! Source: European Commission, Demography Report 2010, Eurostat

13 13 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Age structure could change Ageing: a real world problem! Source: European Commission, Demography Report 2010 Age structure of the population on 1 January 2009 and of immigrants in 2008, EU-27 Age structure of immigrants by basic citizenship groups, EU-27, 2008

14 14 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Change in overall population: natural change and net migration, EU-27 (in thousands) Ageing: a real world problem! Source: European Commission, Demography Report 2010 BEDEFRNLEU27 Population , , , , ,3 Live births 127,3 665,1 825,6 184, ,9 Deaths 104,5 854,5 548,7 134, ,8 Natural change 22, ,4 276,9 50,7 523,1 Net migration 64,0 - 10,7 70,2 38,5 877,1 Total change 86, ,1 374,1 89, ,1 Population , , , , ,4 P P P P P P P P P: provisional data

15 15 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Change in overall population: natural change and net migration, EU-27 (in thousands) Ageing: a real world problem! Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report

16 16 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Population of main geographic areas and selected countries as percentage of the population, 1950, 2000, 2050 Ageing: a real world problem! Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report

17 17 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Effective economic old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 15-64). Ageing: a real world problem! Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report

18 18 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Ageing: a real world problem! Total cost of ageing Pensions in danger? Health care costs are increasing faster Risk of poverty Which solutions? Annexes Ageing populations: a real challenge for Europe.

19 19 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Cost of ageing in EU 27 (% point change of GDP) Total cost of ageing Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report

20 20 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Member States with low ageing costs (% of GDP) Total cost of ageing Source: Commission services EPC Unemployment benefits PensionsHealth careEducation Long-term care EA FR EU27 DE NL BE

21 21 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Ageing: a real world problem! Total cost of ageing Pensions in danger? Health care costs are increasing faster Risk of poverty Which solutions? Annexes Ageing populations: a real challenge for Europe

22 22 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Pension schemes in some EU Member States BEDEFRNL Public pensions Minimum pension/social allowance Minimum pension/social allowance Old-age pensions Old-age pensions Early retirement pensions Early retirement pensions Disability pensions Disability pensions Survivors pensions Survivors pensions MT – SA ER ER (wage earner); FR (self employed) ER MT – SA* ER MT ER ER – HC ER SA* FR - ER FR Occupational pension scheme V* VM Private pension scheme Mandatory private scheme Mandatory private scheme Voluntary pension scheme Voluntary pension scheme X V* X V* - V* X V* Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report Pensions in danger? MT: means testedV: voluntary participationER: earnings related SA: social allowancesX: does not existFR: flat rate M: mandatory participation*: not covered by projectionHC: partly covered by healthcare

23 23 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Legal indexation rules in some EU Member States BEDEFRNL Public pensions Minimum pension/social allowance Minimum pension/social allowance Old-age pensions Old-age pensions Early retirement pensions Early retirement pensions Disability pensions Disability pensions Survivors pensions Survivors pensions CPI + LSA In line with pensions & re-exam (5) NI + sust CPI NI Occupational pension scheme % NI & 30% CPI Private pension scheme Mandatory private scheme Mandatory private scheme Voluntary pension scheme Voluntary pension scheme Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report CPI: consumer price inflationNI: nominal income growth LSA: living standard adjustmentsust: additional adjustment Pensions in danger?

24 24 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Statutory retirement age and average exit age BEDEFRNLEU27EA Exit age Male ,8 61,6 60,9 62,6 58,2 59,5 61,1 64,2 60,4 61,9 60,2 61,6 Exit age Female ,9 61,9 60,4 61,5 58,0 59,4 60,8 63,6 59,4 60,5 59,6 60,9 Total ,861,660,662,058,159,460,963,959,961,259,961,3 Statutory retirement age 2008 Male Female Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report Pensions in danger?

25 25 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Pensions in danger? Decomposition of the public pension spending to GDP ratio over 2007 – 2060 (% of GDP) BEDEFRNLEU27EA 2007 level10,010,413,0 6,610,111,1 Dependency ratio contribution 7,4 7,9 8,4 6,6 8,7 8,8 Coverage ratio contribution- 0,9-1,9- 2,2- 1,5- 2,6- 1,9 Employment effect contribution- 0,5- 0,8- 0,5- 0,2- 0,7 Benefit ratio contribution- 1,0- 2,2- 4,0- 0,6- 2,5- 2,9 Interaction effect- 0,3- 0,8- 0,7- 0,4- 0,6- 0, level14,712,814,010,512,513,8 Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report

26 26 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Pension expenditure and benefit ratio Pensions in danger? Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report

27 27 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Change in the public pension/GDP over (in percentage points) Source: Commission services, EPC Pensions in danger?

28 28 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Privately managed funded pension coverage and contributions in the EU, 2008 Source: OECD Pensions in danger?

29 29 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Ageing: a real world problem! Total cost of ageing Pensions in danger? Health care costs are increasing faster. Risk of poverty Which solutions? Annexes Ageing populations: a real challenge for Europe

30 30 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Ageing report – Economic and budgetary projections for the EU-27 Member States ( ) Health care costs are increasing faster Source: Commission services, EPC

31 31 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Total expenditure on healthcare and life expectancy in the EU member states Source: Eurostat and OECD Health care costs are increasing faster

32 32 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Public spending on health care (% of GDP) (*) BEDEFRNLEU27EA Level 20077,67,48,14,86,7 Change 2007 – 2060 % of GDP % 1,2 16 1,8 24 1,2 15 1,0 20 1,5 22 1,4 21 Level 20608,89,29,45,88,28,1 Difference to pure demographic scenario - 0,2 - 0,1- 0,2 Health care costs are increasing faster Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report (*) AWG reference scenario

33 33 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Factors pushing up healtcare costs Health care costs are increasing faster Demand side Demografic structure of the population Developments in health status Individual and national income Supply side Technology Legal and institutional setting Human and physical capital

34 34 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Public expenditure on long-term care (% of GPD) (*) BEDEFRNLEU27EA Level 20071,50,91,43,41,21,3 Change 2007 – 2060 % of GDP % 1,4 93 1, ,8 58 4, ,1 94 1,4 105 Level 20602,92,42,28,12,42,7 Difference to pure demographic scenario - 0,2- 0,1 - 0,5- 0,1 Health care costs are increasing faster Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report (*) AWG reference scenario

35 35 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Ageing: a real world problem! Total cost of ageing Pensions in danger? Health care costs are increasing faster Risk of poverty Which solutions? Annexes Ageing populations: a real challenge for Europe.

36 36 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Expenditure on social protection benefits (gross, by function, in % of GDP – 2007) Source: Eurostat – ESSPROS 2007 Risk of poverty EU BEDEFRNL Housing and social exclusion n.e.c. Unemployment Family / Children Sickness / Health care Old age and survivors Disability

37 37 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 At-risk-of-poverty rate and illustrative value of the at-risk-of-poverty thresholds (single adult households); Source: EU-SILC (2008), dk*: values including imputed rent² Risk of poverty

38 38 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 At-risk-of-poverty rate by age group, 2008 Source: EU-SILC (2008), dk*: values including imputed rent² Risk of poverty EU BEDEFRNL Children (aged 0 -17). Working population (aged 18 – 64) Elderly (aged 65+)

39 39 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Ageing: a real world problem! Total cost of ageing Pensions in danger? Health care costs are increasing faster Risk of poverty Which solutions? Annexes Ageing populations: a real challenge for Europe.

40 40 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Structural reforms Which solutions? From a pay as you go regime towards a capitalisation regime From a defined benefit regime towards a defined contribution regime The goal of each reform is to set up an equilibrium between adequacy and sustainablilty

41 41 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Parametrical reforms Which solutions? Source: BNB, Les réforms des régimes de pension dans les pays de lUE 15 Fiscal sustainability Social sustainability Receipts Actual retirement age Benefits Tax-like advantages Minimum guarantees 2 nd and 3 rd pillar pensions Indexations and adaptations to well being Legal retirement age Early retirement options Penalties for early retirement and incentives to stay Benchmark career Least favourable period (Portion of) salary considered Salary raises Reference salary Objectives that are contradictory in the short term

42 42 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Reform of public sector employees Which solutions? Source: BNB, Les réforms des régimes de pension dans les pays de lUE 15 BEDEFRNL Longer life spans or raising of the minimum retirement age XXX Obstacles to early retirement and promotion of later retirement XXXX Lengthening contribution timesXXX Reduction in retirement benefitsXXX

43 43 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Swedish first-pillar reform Which solutions? Source: Sunden, The Swedish experience wtih pension reform, 2006 Before the reform After the reform Basic systems (other than those based on salaries) universal basic allowance when there is no sufficient working income, right to an additional pension and a housing allowance Minimum guaranteed (residual) pension and housing allowance funded by general fiscal resources Salary-based systems Supplemental allocation based on defined benefit covering salaries up to a certain ceiling: 15 best salaries price indexation (also for the ceiling) 30 years of contributions 18.5% contribution rate normal retirement age: 65 years, but early retirement possible at 60 Allowance based on defined contributions covering salaries up to a certain ceiling: benefits based on paid contributions yield and indexation linked to salaries (also for the ceiling) 18.5% contribution rate: - 16% for notional accounts - 2.5% capitalisation flexible retirement age beginning with 61 years Survival pensions Funded by Social Security contributions Separate system funded by general fiscal resources

44 44 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Ageing: a real world problem! Total cost of ageing Pensions in danger? Health care costs are increasing faster Risk of poverty Which solutions? Annexes Ageing populations: a real challenge for Europe

45 45 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Annexes United Nations ageing index (= number 60+ per years) AfricaAsiaEuropeLatin America North America OceaniaWorld Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, 2007

46 46 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Number 60+ in % of population AfricaAsiaEuropeLatin America North America OceaniaWorld Annexes Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, 2007

47 47 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Averge age (in years) AfricaAsiaEuropeLatin America North America OceaniaWorld Annexes Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, 2007

48 48 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Lack of children (number of births per woman) 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3, EUBelgiumGermanyFranceNetherlands Annexes Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report

49 49 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Age-related government expenditure, (percentage of GDP) BEDEFRNLEU27EA Pension ,0 4,4 10,4 1,4 13,0 1,4 6,6 1,9 10,2 1,7 11,1 2,1 Healthcare ,6 1,0 7,4 1,4 8,1 1,0 4,8 0,9 6,7 1,0 6,7 1,0 LT care ,5 0,7 0,9 0,7 1,4 0,5 3,4 2,8 1,2 0,6 1,2 0,6 Unemployment benefits ,9 - 0,4 0,9 - 0,3 1,2 - 0,3 1,1 - 0,4 0,8 - 0,2 1,0 - 0,2 Education ,5 - 0,1 3,9 - 0,5 4,7 0,0 4,6 - 0,2 4,3 - 0,3 4,2 - 0,3 Total ,5 5,6 5,623,6 3,6 3,628,4 2,7 2,720,5 6,9 6,923,1 2,7 2,724,3 3,2 3,2 Annexes Source: European Commission, The 2009 Ageing Report

50 50 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Average gross public pension expenditure in 2000 and 2007 (% of GDP) Source: Commission services, EPC Annexes BEDENLFR Old age pension Other pensions

51 51 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Total expenditure on health per capita vs GDP per capita, 2007 Source: Eurostat and OECD Health data Annexes

52 52 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 At-risk-of-poverty rate by age group, 2008 Source: EU-SILC (2008), dk*: values including imputed rent² Annexes

53 53 AAA Blanc R: 255 G: 255 B: 255 AAA Reflex Bleu R: 0 G: 37 B: 150 AAA Vert pré R: 141 G: 192 B: 47 AAA Pantone 2603 R: 109 G: 30 B: 126 Pantone 213 R: 228 G: 22 B: 106 AAA Pantone 151 R: 255 G: 121 B: 0 AAA Pantone 7406 R: 253 G: 200 B: 47 AAA Ciel R: 128 G: 215 B: 239 Azur R: 0 G: 167 B: 219 Bleu saphir R: 0 G: 111 B: 175 Bleu foncé R: 0 G: 85 B: 166 AAA Gris moyen R: 178 G: 178 B: 178 Gris foncé R: 64 G: 64 B: 64 AAA Gris sombre R: 128 G: 128 B: 128 AAA Rouge R: 175 G: 0 B: 62 AAA Menthe R: 114 G: 179 B: 79 AAA Vert foncé R: 67 G: 141 B: 45 AAA Vert amande R: 145 G: 215 B: 175 Total, public and private expenditure on health as % of GDP, 2007 Source: Eurostat Annexes (RHS)


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