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Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Looking for extreme events in Switzerland: What role for risk analysis in critical infrastructure protection?

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Presentation on theme: "Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Looking for extreme events in Switzerland: What role for risk analysis in critical infrastructure protection?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Looking for extreme events in Switzerland: What role for risk analysis in critical infrastructure protection? Dr. Stefan Brem stefan.brem[at]babs.admin.ch Head Risk Analysis and Research Coordination Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Fed. Department of Defence, Civil Protection and Sport ETH Risk Center Workshop Swiss Re, October 26, 2012

2 2 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Katarisk, 2003 Looking for extreme events in … Basel, 1356 Chile, 2010

3 3 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Risk valuation Monetary terms of statistical damage values (marginal costs) Weighting by consideration of aversion against large- scale incidents Risk analysis Statistics of incidents Description of scenarios Calculation of statistical damage values Check of plausibility using statistics Plotting of cumulative frequency curves Comparative overview Katarisk: Methodology

4 4 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Agenda Concept of Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) in Switzerland Swiss CIP Programme National CIP Strategy Identification of CI Objects Risk Assessment and CIP Conclusion and Discussion

5 5 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP CIP concept in Switzerland RISK NATURAL HAZARDS TECHNICAL HAZARDS SOCIETAL HAZARDS PREVENTION PREPARATION INTERVENTION RECONDITION RECON- STRUCTION Public Administration Industry Energy Waste Disposal Financial Services Health ICT Water and Food Public Safety Transport Preventing breakdowns Reducing damages

6 6 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Mandate by the Federal Council Implementation of the national CIP strategy 2012 Role of the Federal Office for Civil Protection Chairing the CIP Working Group Coordination of the activities based on the national strategy Aim and purpose of the CIP Programme Development of uniform approach Creation of joint basic documents Facilitation of dialogue and collaboration Protection of the population and its livelihood (Art. 2, CPCD Law) CIP Programme in Switzerland

7 7 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP National CIP Strategy 2012 Strategic Goal Basic Principles Comprehensive risk-based approach Proportionality Responsibility of the actors Public-private partnership The national CP strategy aims at improving the resiliency of critical infrastructures in Switzerland. It ensures a coordinated and unified approach of all actors involved.

8 8 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Measures of the National CIP Strategy Improve the general framework of the cross-sectoral collaboration Improve the CIs resiliency Key points of the strategy Identification and compilation of CI objects (CI-Inventory) Establishment of cross-sectoral platforms Improving information exchange (incl. early warning) Handling of CI failures (federal support) CIP as a permanent process (inventory, comprehensive protection concepts, risk dialogue, etc.)

9 9 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Failure of a national critical infrastructure Failure of a regional critical infrastructure Inventory of Critical Infrastructure Objects Aim: Inventory of Swiss Critical Infrastructure objects Contribution to the provision of important goods and services and / or hazard potential Purpose: Basis for planning and prioritisation in risk and disaster management Confederation, Cantons, CI operators CI Inventory replaces Catalogue to Ensure Basic Needs (previously operated by the military) Extension in terms of CI sectors, operators, threat and measure spectrum Identification of CI objects uses standardised process Method elaborated and approved by CIP WG Committees of relevant actors on national level

10 10 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Prioritisation process 1)Creation of a function structure 2)Determination of relevant object groups 3)Definition of threshold levels 4)Compilation and evaluation of CI objects a) Output potential b) Hazard potential 5)Completion with cantonal objects Swiss approach is similar / compatible with the EU approach Focus lies on national importance rather than on cross-border effects CIP Inventory considers international aspects In every CI subsector

11 11 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Database CI Inventory and Object Files Dummy version

12 12 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Risk Assessment and CIP Objectives and purpose Multi- (integrated) risk analysis to prioritise hazards (country risk assessment) Integrate know-how to increase risk awareness (e.g. dependencies/cascades) Elaborate foundations for further analyses, (preparedness) planning, training and information

13 13 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Methodology to assess the hazards Risk = Impact x Frequency/Probability Impact (damage) is described by 13 indicators Assessment based on the scenario of the risk files Expert-Delphi (workshops) Impact Freq/Probab Expert groups Assessment Aggregation of Impact Indicators of the damageMarginal costs

14 14 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Workshops Proof of concept, December 2011 Validation of methodology with a sample of risk files (inter alia earthquake, drought, power blackout, animal disease) Participants primarily with methodological expertise (academia, insurance, federal, cantonal and communal authorities, etc.) Assessment workshops of the scenarios 13 workshops between May and August 2012 Participants depending on the hazard from federal, cantonal and communal authorities (intel, police, health, etc.), academia, CI operators (energy, transportation, IT, finance, etc.), etc. Validation by (re)insurance representatives In total, some 70 experts involved in assessment

15 15 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Risk files and scenario Risk files Systematic structure of the risk files Definition / general info Similar incidents Driving factors Dependencies Scenario Description Impacts Legal foundation and references Scenario as reference for the assessment of impact and likelihood. Scenario in risk file is one of many possible scenarios (serious / major / extreme). Scenario is no prediction / forecast. Scenarios help to anticipate possible impacts to get better prepared.

16 16 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Selected hazards for assessment in 2012 Attack with dirty bomb Attack with sarin Accident in a chemical plant Drought Mass migration of refugees (Kosovo 1999) Cyber attack Power blackout Animal disease Road accident with dangerous goods Storm, inland flooding, earthquake Pandemic Additional 6 workshops in the context of the revision of the national CBRN and natural hazard reference scenarios

17 17 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP To assess the damage: 13 indicators Description of consequences is based on the Swiss Federal Constitution: Area of damage Sub-areaIndicator Population Life and Health B1 – Casualty B2 – Person injured or sick Help in emergencyB3 – Person in need of support EnvironmentAgricultural area + forestU1 – Damaged area Economy WealthW1 – Damage on property and assets Economic productivity W2 – Reduction of economic productivity Society Provision of vital goods and services G1 – Disruption of provision Basic rightsG2 – Restrictions on basic rights Law and orderG3 – Limitations of law and order Image of and trust in institutions G4 – Reduction of good image G5 – Reduction of trust Territorial controlG6 – Loss of territorial control Cultural goodsG7 – Damage or loss of cultural goods

18 18 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP F- Class Likelihood (in 10 years) 1 x in... years Frequency (1/year) F 8 > 30 %< 30> 3*10 -2 F 7 10 - 30 %30 - 100 3*10 -2 - 10 -2 F 6 3 - 10 %100 - 30010 -2 - 3*10 -3 F 5 1 - 3 %300 - 1'0003*10 -3 - 10 -3 F 4 0.3 - 1 %1'000 - 3'00010 -3 - 3*10 -4 F 3F 3 0.1 - 0.3 %3'000 - 10'0003*10 -4 - 10 -4 F 2 0.03 - 0.1 %10000 - 30'00010 -4 - 3*10 -5 F 1 < 0.03%> 30'000< 3*10 -5 Estimation of Likelihood / Probability / Frequency

19 19 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Selection of first results: Natural hazards Earthquake Inland Flooding

20 20 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Selection of first results: technical and societal hazards Pandemic Power blackout

21 21 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Figure: Exemplary Riskmatrix Comparative Analysis

22 22 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Available products (so far in German only...)

23 23 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Conclusion and outlook Increasing importance of CIP The aim is not absolute security, but optimized security However, extreme events should be considered in the preparedness and continuity planning Value added of comprehensive approach Resources are increasingly scarce Prioritisation necessary Consideration of residual risk (extreme events!) Cross-sector cooperation and coordination become more and more important Cross-country cooperation and coordination as well

24 24 Federal Office for Civil Protection FOCP Contact information Dr. Stefan Brem Head of Risk Analysis and Research Coordination Federal Office for Civil Protection Monbijoustrasse 51A, 3003 Bern Tel +41 31 322 51 37 Fax +41 31 324 87 89 stefan.brem[at]babs.admin.ch www.civilprotection.ch Risks Switzerland: www.risk-ch.ch KATAPLAN: www.kataplan.ch CIP: www.infraprotection.ch


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