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Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring & Modeling.

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Presentation on theme: "Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring & Modeling."— Presentation transcript:

1 Office of Research and Development National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Monitoring & Modeling

2 Water Quality Issues in the Gulf of Mexico Reduce coastal nutrient loads Reduce hypoxia in northern Gulf Improve water quality Restore wetlands Preserve habitats Sources:Gulf Alliance, draft report NCCR2, 2005 Hypoxia Action Plan, 2001

3 Office of Wetlands, Oceans & Watersheds MS River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force Office of Science & Technology National Nutrient Criteria 2001 Hypoxia Action called for reassessment in 5 years – assess progress towards goals and revise if needed SAB will conduct assessment of Gulf hypoxia science (beginning in 2006) - SAB will require information update (GED lead for Hypoxia Science Symposium) MS River Basin and Gulf receiving water focus for EcoProtection MYP revision Nutrient criteria recommendations for freshwater systems by ecoregion released in States are working to revise FW criteria OST required to release estuarine nutrient criteria recommendations by 2007 OST required to release nutrient criteria recommendations for wetlands and coastal marine waters by ??? Office of Water Needs

4 Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring and Modeling MED Field Station Grosse Ile, Michigan Russell G. Kreis Jr. Gulf Ecology Division Gulf Breeze, Florida Richard M. Greene Gulf of Mexico Program Office Stennis, Mississippi Western Ecology Division Newport, Oregon Peter M. Eldridge Office of Water Washington DC

5 Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring and Modeling Goal: Develop consensus modeling framework targeting Gulf hypoxia o to reduce uncertainty and enhance credibility of model estimates of nutrient load reductions required to meet Action Plan goals o provide defensible options to guide restoration and decision-making Goal: Develop consensus modeling framework targeting Gulf hypoxia o to reduce uncertainty and enhance credibility of model estimates of nutrient load reductions required to meet Action Plan goals o provide defensible options to guide restoration and decision-making

6 CENR National Hypoxia Assessment Report (1999) oPrimary obstacle to reducing model uncertainties … is lack of a sufficiently comprehensive database oExisting database not designed to quantify load-response relationships – new monitoring approaches needed oComprehensive monitoring programs alone will not be sufficient for developing, calibrating and validating quantitative WQ models – relevant and targeted research needed oFuture modeling should include linkages of WQ/Eutro and hydrodynamics, expansion of spatial domain, and refinement of temporal and spatial resolution – new integrated, multimedia modeling constructs needed

7 ORD Objectives Establish an integrated multimedia, mathematical modeling framework that incorporates monitoring, condition assessment, diagnosis, and research Support the framework with a statistically-based, seasonal field monitoring design and targeted research Integrate physical, chemical, biological components with external and internal nutrient loads Establish stressor-response relationships for nutrient loads & concentrations, Chl a, and DO Develop predictive capability to forecast the benefits of risk reduction options and the time to realize the benefits Examine stressor-response relationships using forecasting to provide bases for biologically-based, nutrient criteria for ambient nutrients, Chl a, and DO Provide managers with defensible methods, tools, and options to aid and guide the environmental decision-making process

8 ORD Gulf Hypoxia Modeling Framework Surface Wave Model Hydrodynamic Model Atmospheric Transport Model Computational Transport Sediment Transport & Diagenesis Model Water Quality Model Eutrophication Model Mass Balance Wave direction, height, period Deposition Fluxes Advective/ Dispersive Transport Dissolved Oxygen Model (water/sediment) Meteorological data Constituent Mass loadings

9 Framework Models Atmospheric Hydrodynamic/ Meteorological Sediment transport, fate, and diagenesis Water Quality/ Eutrophication/ Dissolved Oxygen Model Components ORD/NERL USN, NRL ORD/NHEERL CMAQ, CTM, MM5 IAS NCOM IPX-MT and CE-QUAL-ICM hybrid WASP and CE-QUAL-ICM hybrid Partners

10 U.S. EPA-ORD/NERL

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13 Conceptual Relationship Between Maximum Hypoxic Zone Size and Load Reduction Establish a defensible nutrient loading target necessary to reduce the areal extent of hypoxic bottom waters in the Gulf Develop eco-forecasting capabilities to evaluate nutrient management strategies and timelines to achieve results Hypoxia Recovery Scenarios Under Gradual Nutrient Reductions and Hydrologic Variability

14 Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring Surveys Characterize the spatial and temporal variability in oceanographic state and process variables, including resolution of the seaward and down-plume boundary conditions of the model domain Quantify key processes influencing hypoxia to improve predictive models Develop geo-referenced database to support model development

15 Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring Surveys Surveys Completed Dec 2– March 17– June 9– Nov 5– April 2–72004 March Sept 26 – Oct 9, 2005 Station Sampling Summary CTD CTD+Water Benthic Map shows transect stations and depth contours

16 Dissolved Inorganic – nitrate, nitrite, phosphate, ammonium, silicate X Particulate C, N, P XX Total Dissolved N, P Total N, P X Dissolved organic carbon X Total Suspended solids X Biogenic silica X Chlorophyll a XX PAR, secchi depth, attenuation X Dissolved oxygen X T, S, turbidity, transmissivity X Phytoplankton taxonomy X Grain size, benthic taxonomy X Total organic matter/organic C X Bulk density, porosity, % water X Primary productivity ( 14 C & FRRF) X Bacterial productivity ( 3 H-Leucine) X Respiration rates X Sediment oxygen demand X Sulfate reduction rates X Benthic nutrient flux X Parameter Water Sediment Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring Data – discrete waters samples collected at minimum of 2 and maximum of 6 depths depending on water column structure and depth

17 kg/m 3 June 9 – 19, 2003 Water column stratification and Hypoxic Region µ g/L June 9 – 19, 2003 Surface Chlorophyll a and Hypoxic Region

18 Resolving Seaward Boundary Conditions Salinity distributions along transect D showing oceanic conditions seaward Depth (m) June 2003 Transect Distance (km) March 2003

19 Continuous Surface Mapping Array MS River to Fourchon Surface salinity and PO 4 3- Cruise track Start Stop Mixing zone Not baseline corrected

20 Project Timelines FY 02FY 03 FY 07FY 06 FY 05FY 04 Planning Field Monitoring Sample/Data Analysis Database Development Model Development & Application APM APM APM Cruise WQ Dbase Report Trends FY 08


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