Presentation on theme: "Further Alterations to the London Plan 2014 Consultation draft."— Presentation transcript:
Further Alterations to the London Plan 2014 Consultation draft
Purpose of the Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP) Develop concept of the Plan as the London expression of the National Planning Policy Framework; Provide robust, interim planning framework to address the key housing and employment issues arising from a substantial increase in population and to support recession recovery, until the long term implications of these are clear Minor changes in terms of fact; changes in national policy; support for the Mayors Housing and other strategies and where relevant address other advice to the Mayor eg from the Outer London Commission.
Londons demographic challenge London population 2001 (revised):7.34 mil London population 2011 (Census):8.17 mil = 83,000 pa increase BUT London Plan 2011 – 2031 assumes 51,000pa AND new GLA trend projection 2011 – 2036 suggests 76,000 pa, and over 100k in earlier years….
Londons demographic challenge Population growth
Londons demographic challenge Age structure change
Londons demographic challenge Distribution of population growth
Londons employment growth
Distribution of employment growth
The office policy review process Trends and emerging market issues NB recession: structural cf cyclical changes Quantum of growth Nature of growth Distribution of growth Key issue: CAZ and competing land uses Key issue: Outer London - managing consolidation and PD rights Other policy issues eg mega-schemes Market testing Plan, monitor and manage
Market data: supply and demand Office starts, Central London,
Market data: supply and demand Availability and take-up, Central London,
Market data: supply and demand Central London office rents, 1980–2011 (2011 prices)
Market data: benchmark 1 Ratio: permissions to average previous three years starts
Market data: benchmark 2 City availability ratio versus headline rent,
Employment and floorspace forecasts Borough floorspace (Sq m NIA) floorspace (Sq m GIA) London5,098,4056,454,862 City734,203929,541 Westminster616,291780,258 Camden537,161680,075 Tower Hamlets412,616522,394 Southwark358,685454,116 Islington335,401424,637 Hackney109,941139,191 London needs an additional five million sq m by 2031
Prospects for non-CAZ office centres London office stock change, Concentration of growth in Tower Hamlets and the City is clear. Fringe boroughs of Camden, Southwark and Islington increased by c 200,000 sq m. Relatively low growth in Westminster. Outer Londons demise is clear. Croydon and Harrow each experienced a loss of over 100,000 sq m.
Prospects for non-CAZ office centres Office floorspace completions in Outer London, In 2008, no new office buildings were built in nine of 20 Outer London boroughs. In any of the five years leading up to 2008, between 10 and 13 Outer London boroughs delivered no new office construction. The picture was particularly acute in the East London boroughs.
Workstyles and occupation densities 2.5 million sq m; 381 properties; 1,331 floors Mean: 10.9 sq m Occupancy densities, BCO research 2013 Sector Density sq m NIA Corporate13.1 Professional12.3 Public12.1 TMT10.5 Financial 9.7
Londons mega schemes: first generation
Londons mega schemes: second generation
Office to residential Stage Number of sites B1 floorspace losses (sq m) Residential units Completed ,80011,400 Started ,10013,200 Not started1, ,70014,400 Total2,165-1,675,60039,000 London floorspace losses
Office to residential Borough % of B1 floorspace losses Total (sq m) CompletedStartedNot started Westminster ,500 Tower Hamlets ,200 Croydon ,600 City229-82,700 Lambeth483-77,700 Kensington & Chelsea ,200 Camden554-76,600 Islington346-73,000 Southwark237-69,500 Hammersmith & Fulham316-62,500 London (sq m)-505, , ,700-1,675,600 Loss of B1 to residential - % of total London losses
Hybrid office/industrial activity Audio-visual equipment installationMaintenance contractor Cash and carryManufacturer of sweets Design and manufacture of applied artsOriental food supplier E-tradingRecording equipment repair Event cateringShort-run digital printing Freight forwardingSpecialist provider of gift wrapping Graphic designWine importer ProductionSupport AssemblyManagement and administration CraftworkGoods dispatch/receipt CustomisationCustomer support (call centre) DesignCustomer consultation EngineeringDemonstration Food preparationRetail & wholesale sales Graphic designSales & marketing MaintenanceTechnology PackingTraining PrintingSoftware development RepairShowroom Storage & consolidationEntertainment and hospitality
Conclusions from LOPR 12 Occupiers Structural slowdown in office economy = lower demand growth. Changes to business process + workstyles = spaceless growth. Public sector rationalisation. Business geography Looser business geography, with shifting and emerging clusters. Further concentration of business activity in mega schemes. Less demand in Outer London? Less demand in West London? Workplace Working practices: flexible working styles; utilisation. Diversity of stock (quality, size, location) for a diverse occupier base. Loose fit buildings: economic, lower spec, flexible space.
Conclusions from LOPR 12 Property market Implications of the mega scheme pipeline: plenty of capacity. Outer London: further decline? 1960s/1970s stock a lost cause? More refurb and less new build? Spatial planning policy Capacity is not the issue: issue is more sensitive spatial policy. TMT: you cant plan creativity! Mixed use space and how to integrate office space. The known unknowns Employment forecasts and economic change? Hub airport strategy: potentially huge impact on west London offices? The impact of resi values on marginalising commercial activity?
Retail policy review process Trends and emerging market issues NB austerity, population, multi channel Quantum and nature of growth: independent assessment Distribution of growth Key issue: town centres first – London approach Key issue: retail and resi - integrated action Other policy issues eg out of centre, PD rights Market testing Plan, monitor and manage
The drivers of change: assessing the balance between retail supply and shopping demand Existing demand population and spend Existing Retail supply Pipeline of Retail developments Improved Retail space efficiency Population growth Economic growth Major Retail development nodes Loss to Internet DEMAND SUPPLY
Special forms of trading assumptions – projected share of non-store retail sales
Demand - residential spend by centre 2011
Demand - tourist spend by centre 2011
Demand - commuter spend by centre 2011
Supply - current floorspace provision
Supply - current vacancy
Supply - current pipeline
….and also in the wider city region (nb Duty to Cooperate)
Experian scenarios = what if?
…. and, for example, adding in 4 (or 8) major development nodes Stratford +40% Croydon+ 25% Westfield +25% Brent Cross+ 40% Kingston+ 25% Uxbridge +40% Bromley +25% Romford +25%
…gives, at LB level, for the Pipeline, a net balance of…
…or for the 8 Nodes scenario, a net balance of …..
… or for the Quality Adjustment scenario, a net balance of…
…. also available at centre level eg if all pipeline constructed and 4 nodes …. Brent Cross, Westfield, Westfield Stratford & Croydon Base spend 2036 top shopping centres Croydon gains It impacts Kingston, Bromley, Sutton and Bexleyheath Westfield Stratford It impacts Stratford and Ilford
The 2011 Plan town centre network: is a network based approach still the best to achieve the Mayors objectives?
How should the town centre network respond to changing levels and patterns of consumer expenditure Do these scenarios reflect what might actually happen? Alternatives? Retain existing town centre first policy How far can we go with existing policies/SPG in addressing these challenges? Are the challenges so great that we need to change existing policy through FALP? If so, how and over what timescale?
How can the housing potential of town centres be realised? Existing policy… Accommodating residential development in town centres Housing from surplus offices (redevelopment / conversions) Implementation of mixed use and housing Housing density
…and average household size increasing from 2.3 to 2.5… London Plan assumed household size would decline from 2.34 to 2.19 persons to 2031 approximated to 34,000 extra (and generally small) households pa BUT 2011 Census shows 2.47 average across London with a lot of local variation GLA projection suggests c40,000 pa more households 2011 – 2026 …and housing requirement could be k pa General housing implications: higher overall requirement with more small households in some places, more big (over crowded?) ones elsewhere?
….what role can town centres have in addressing this need? Great uncertainty over long term future pop and hhld growth Must plan responsibly/sustainably: considerable capacity already therefore not GB development/new town Emerging SHLAA suggests conventional approach may find capacity for +32k pa BUT how to fill the gap between this and need: key roles for town centres and Opportunity/ Intensification Areas
…..possible policy approaches and mechanisms for town centre intensification Link with response to reconfiguration of town centre economic/social roles Retail and office floorspace contraction; social, service and civic expansion? Varies by centre type - and local circs …. and with PTAL Flexibility to go to the top of the density range (and above in some circs?) How to reconcile with local character objectives How to enhance quality of the centres themselves – for C21st What partnership/funding arrangements required?
The policy response…. Consultation draft Further Alterations to the London Plan
The office policy response: Further Alterations to the London Plan where justified by local and strategic office demand and supply assessments and in areas identified in the LDF as having a particular need for local office provision, provide protection for small scale offices (under 500sqm) within the CAZ. where justified by local and strategic office demand assessments and in areas identified in LDF as having a particular need for local office provision, require residential proposals within the CAZ which would otherwise result in the loss of office space to make a proportionate contribution to provision of new office space within, or nearby, the development.
The retail/ town centres policy response: Further Alterations to the London Plan Update retail need figures taking account of changes in consumer expenditure behaviour Net comparison need 0.4 – 1.6 mll sq m cf 1.3 – 2.2 mll sq in 2011 Plan Strong cross ref to Policy 2.15 on different approaches to development in small, medium sized and larger centres Links London Plan policy to proposed retail PD rights criteria Planning criteria to help manage negative clusters eg of betting shops, takeaways
Town centre network
Potential future changes to the town centre network
12 week public consultation from 15 January to 10 April 2014 FALP launch event at City Hall on 31 st January 2014 at 2pm Series of consultation events with voluntary sector, business sector, POS event, the wider South East, 5 London sub region. EIP late summer 2014 Final publication spring 2015 FALP Timetable