1. 1 Education, Careers and Migration Aspirations of Rural Youth Anastasia R. Snyder Associate Professor of HDFS The Ohio State University Snyder.893@osu.edu

2. Acknowledgements and Funding Sources Diane K. McLaughlin, Professor of Rural Sociology and Demography at Penn State University, is a Co-PI on this project. Mary Ann Demi, doctoral candidate at Penn State University in Rural Sociology and Demography, is a graduate student who has been involved in nearly all aspects of the project. Funded by National Research Initiative grant from USDA/CSREES (#2007-35401-1773) The primary data collection part of the project (RYE) is also funded by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania

3. Motivation for Research Rural youth have lower educational aspirations and attainment (Elder et al., 1996; Haller & Virkler, 1993; McLaughlin & Blackwell, 2000) Rural youth out-migration is a problem that could be linked to unique future aspirations of rural youth (Fuguitt et al., 1989; Gibbs, 2005; Johnson, 2003) No studies of how aspirations change over time, or what influences aspirations Combines theoretical perspectives related to status attainment, achievement of human capital and adolescent identity development

4. Figure 1. Educational Attainment of Population Age 25 and Older, 2006-2009 Source: 2006-2009 American Community Survey

5. Figure 2. Percent with BA or Higher by Residence, ACS 2006-2008

6. Figure 3. Future Expectations in 2000 n=6,831 youth aged 15-19 in 2000 who were 20-24 in 2005 Source: Snyder, McLaughlin & Coleman-Jensen, 2009

7. Figure 4. Migration between 2000 and 2005 among NLSY97 Youth n=6,831 youth aged 15-19 in 2000 who were 20-24 in 2005 Source: Snyder, McLaughlin & Coleman-Jensen, 2009

8. Figure 5. Educational Attainment in 2005 Source: Snyder, McLaughlin & Coleman-Jensen, 2009; n=6,831 youth age 15-19 in 2000, 20-24 in 2005

9. Figure 6. Combining School and Work in 2005

10. Table 1. Cox Proportional Hazard Model Predicting a First Birth, NLSY97 Time Varying VariableHazard Ratio Nonmetro Residence1.25* Central City Residence.96 High School Degree.65* College Degree.28* First Cohabitation2.67* First Marriage3.00* Paeudo LL=15232.12 N=51,107 Note: Model controls for sex, race/ethnicity, family background characteristics; data from NLSY97 panel sample waves 1-11; Source: Snyder & Demi, 2009

11. Main Research Questions What are the future aspirations of rural youth regarding education, careers and migration? What factors influence these aspirations? How do aspirations change over time and what influences these changes (RYE primary data)? How do early aspirations and expectations, and migration patterns, shape future outcomes during emerging adulthood (Wave 4)?

12. Research Design Rural Youth Education (RYE) Study – Stratified random sample of rural PA school districts in 2005 – Primary longitudinal data collection effort Wave 1 n=1,516 Wave 2 n=1,475 (946 panel) Wave 3 n=1,287 (658 panel) Analysis of secondary data for met/nonmet comparisons and additional information NLSY97 panel data Add-Health 1990, 2000 Census; ACS PUMS 2005-2007

13. 7 th grade at W1younger cohort 11 th grade at W1older cohort W1 W2 W3 W4 Figure 7. Cohort Sequential Design for RYE Data Collection Data Collection Time Points: W1=Spring 2005 W2=Winter-Spring 2007 W3=Winter-Spring-2009 W4=Winter-Spring-2011 11 th HS+1 HS+3 HS+5 7 th 9 th 11 th HS+1

14. Data Collection Challenges Difficult to track the panel sample, especially the older cohort – Lots of residential mobility, changing numbers and emails Final wave 4 data collection will use mixed-method survey collection design – Mail combined with web survey design (Dilman, 2009)

15. Table 2. RYE Panel Sample at W1 (N=513) VariablePercent Female54.4 Two parent family70.0 Family relatively low income18.7 Mother more than HS education62.0 Father more than HS education58.5 Likes school a lot71.4 I can stay here and get the education I want75.1 I can stay here and get the job I want when Im an adult64.7 Low Pov/High Education Low Poverty/Low Education High Poverty/High Education High Poverty/Low Education 38.4 23.4 24.8 13.4

16. 16 Figure 8. Change in Educational Aspirations W1-W3 N=513, RYE younger cohort

17. 17 Figure 9. Change in Occupational Aspirations W1-W3 N=513, RYE younger cohort

18. 18 Figure 10. Change in Residential Aspirations W1-W3 N=513, RYE younger cohort

19. Table 3. Logistic Regression Predicting Stability in Educational Aspirations Variable β e β Stable Residential Aspirations.14 1.15 Stable Work Aspirations.81 2.24 Female.48 1.61 Two parent household.53 1.71 Mother has higher than HS education.62 1.85 Father has higher than HS educaiton.50 1.65 Student likes school a lot or very much.62 1.88 Constant-2.07 -- -2(LL) DF Pseudo R2 N 599.668 13.14 513 Model controls for attitudes, community typology, family SES

20. Conclusions Stability in school aspirations, less so for work and residence – More stability among those with higher aspirations – Forming by 7 th grade, possibly earlier Stability in work aspirations is associated with stability in educational aspirations, but not with stability in residential aspirations Importance of school and family contexts in educational aspirations

21. Future Directions Wave 4 data collection Spring 2011 Use restricted NLSY97 data to examine within and between county moves (migration and residential mobility) – Emphasize work, school and migration transitions – Also include county-level variables – Use NLSY79 to examine return migration to rural areas