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TRENDS IN U.S. HIGHER EDUCATION Fanta Aw Assistant Vice President Campus Life American University Washington D.C.

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Presentation on theme: "TRENDS IN U.S. HIGHER EDUCATION Fanta Aw Assistant Vice President Campus Life American University Washington D.C."— Presentation transcript:

1 TRENDS IN U.S. HIGHER EDUCATION Fanta Aw Assistant Vice President Campus Life American University Washington D.C.

2 Trends Converging Trends will shape U.S. higher education in the future Changing landscape of higher education is a hot topic for colleges and universities Issues are complexfrom the role new technologies to changing demographics, to rising cost, completion rate, assessment, and globalization

3 Trends On the federal and state levels, serious questions are being asked about the role of higher education ( cost, ROI, quality) Graduation rates; Performance measures; Affordability and Access; Mode of educational delivery are being questioned

4 Trends Trends have significant implications for the future of U.S. higher education BUT ALSO Trends have implications for international higher education Globally

5 7 Major Trends Affordability and Access Demography- Changing population Educational Delivery Mode- Distance Education Performance assessment/Learning outcome Economic Downturn/Crisis Privatization of public education Effect of Globalization

6 Overview of Enrollment and Types of Institutions Massification and Diversity of Education Community Colleges and State Schools enroll the largest number of students Private/Liberal Arts Colleges constitute the largest number of institutions yet enroll small number of students Traditional model of college is changing- proliferation of for-profit institutions

7 Number of Institutions and Total Enrollments- Select Years Source: U.S. Department of Education 19932008% Change Number of Institutions 3,6324,339+19.4% Enrollment14,305,00018,248,128+27.5%

8 INSTITUTION TYPE 2007-08 source: U.S. Department of Education PublicPrivate Two-year Community Colleges 24% Junior/Career Colleges 15% Four-year State Colleges 13% Liberal Arts Colleges/University 44% University Research Universities 2% Research Universities 2%

9 Enrollment By Institution Type 2007 S ource: Department of Education PublicPrivate Two-year Community Colleges 35 % (6,324,111) Career Colleges 2% (293,811) Four-year State Colleges 25% (4,676,046) Liberal Arts Colleges 20% (3,604,938) University Research Universities 14% (2,490,615) Research Universities 4%(858,599)

10 Issues of Affordability/Cost Parents and/or students are increasingly responsible for tuition and other fees Higher education has increasingly been seen as a private good largely benefiting individuals Surge in private higher education and the financing models have important implications Increasing gaps in access to education- government attempting to close gap with government aid – PELL Grants and others

11 Federal Support for Higher Education Source: Department of Education19902008 Student Aid$27 billion $83 billion Research$12 billion $28 billion Tax Incentives < $1 billion $10 billion

12 Trends in College Pricing 1997-98 to 2007-08 Percentage increase Average increase per year Public 4 year 54% 4.4 % Public 2 years 17%1.4% Private 4 years 33%2.9%

13 Affordability/Access Borrowing Culture for Education= Investment Tuition cost continue to increase at a rate higher than inflation or consumer price index Consumer not deterred- enrollment continues to be on the rise reflecting a high demand and a willingness to pay due to the perception that price=quality Financial aid system places financially needy students at a great disadvantage Stratification of students- African Americans attending college remain at 20 percentage points lower than whites

14 Affordability Strategies Strategic use of non-need-based institutional aid to attract certain types of students to an institution is on the increase- Bidding war for high profile students to increase ranking Discounting of tuition- averaging 35%- use of institutional grants Pressure/scrutiny by Congress- Elite schools are asked to spend more of endowment on financial aid- proposed 5% Increase recruitment of full-paying international students

15 Affordability Strategies Elite school choosing to boost aid to middle, upper middle class families Harvard, Yale, Stanford, Dartmouth, U Penn boosting financial aid Creation of 3 year degree programs and increased enrollment in distance education

16 Demographic Trends 1996-2016 (in millions) Source: College Board199620062016 UndergradFull-time 7,169,0009,009,00010,330,000 Grad & Professional Full-time 1,046,0001,341,0001,715,000

17 Changing Student Population More Latino, African-American, Veterans and disabled Students Retirement of baby boomers Changing pattern of attendance- more part-time or intermittent participation Community Colleges and for-profit institutions best at capturing the changing demographics Most elite colleges will continue to serve traditional college students ( whites, middle class, women)

18 Online/Distance Education Forefront of providing accessibility to students around the world In response to non-traditional students- Non traditional students expected to be the norm in the future technology as a means to break down geographic, ethnic/racial, economic barriers to education Challenging universities to rewire their way of thinking to begin to meet student needs – digital generation Expected growth of 33% in next decade Over $15 billion industry

19 Online/Distance Education Growth include efforts to expand access to more students, alleviate capacity constraints, capitalize on emerging market opportunities, and serve as a catalyst for institutional transformation Factor influencing growth is competition Universities offering online/distance education are often perceived as modern and [technologically] competent, thus creating a competitive advantage

20 Distance Education Mammoth University of Phoenix has 280,000 students around the world Largest private university in the United States with internet courses 163 campuses and learning centers in 33 states, Puerto Rico, Canada and Mexico

21 Accountability In Performance shift toward accountability- Learning Outcome- skills, knowledge, abilities Shift from theoretical and seat-based time to outcomes-based or employer-based competency With an emphasis on competency, course content will be dictated more by what learners need, [than] by what has been traditionally done Shift from enrollment rate to completion outcome

22 Drivers for Accountability Students and Families as Consumers Government- State and Federal Access and Affordability Return on Investment Funding tied to new metrics Employers certification is becoming more preferable than a degree Diplomas are less meaningful to employers; knowledge, performance, and skills are what count to them integrating applied or on-the-job experience into academic programs as a critical characteristic of universities in the 21st century

23 Economic Downturn Impact of Crisis on notable institutions Cornell, Brown, Darmouth, U Penn, Harvard The case for State Universities UC system- 20% budget cut for AY 2009 Others range from 10-20% Greater funding for community Colleges-Obama Administration Trading Down decision- moving from private to public and from 4 yr to 2yr institution

24 Implications for IHE? Globalization and trends in mobility of students-new players ( Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, etc) Diversity argument may become harder to justify- given demographic shifts Key is integrating multiculturalism and International Education Need to focus on preparing Global citizens for the global economy. Issue is How do we measure success and learning outcome ?

25 Implications for IHE? Cost of U.S. higher education will be an on-going challenge, thus expanding global mobility of students to other parts of the world. U.S. share of global market will continue to decline U.S. Higher Education must continue to successfully argue the value added dimension if it is to compete effectively Growth and opportunity mostly in S&E where supply of U.S. student are limited Research 1 Universities and Community Colleges to continue to experience growth

26 Implications for IHE? Technology capabilities will continue to encourage the rise of global universities There will be an increase in alternative delivery systems, including the creation of foreign campuses Emerging Economies will account for majority of global capacity and significantly define the Global HE profile ( China, India, Brazil, Chile, South Africa, Malaysia, etc)

27 Implications for IHE? HE to become of a globally traded commodity Protectionist barriers may arise due to security, differential pricing Competitiveness will require rapid innovation in subject matter AND pedagogy Private funding for HE will increase significantly

28 Conclusion Learning is not just about covering content, it's about developing competency- Competitive advantage of U.S. Higher Education Instruction is becoming more learner-centered, non- linear, and self-directed Students are consumers with a choice – and HEd must yield to demand Reform of quality and accreditation metrics to be expected ( value for money, employment outcomes) Must align technology with pedagogy

29 Conclusion Lifelong learning is becoming a competitive necessity- career changes on average every 10 years – need for retooling, retraining Traditional campuses are declining, for-profit institutions are growing, and public and private institutions are merging Number of degree-granting institutions will grow By 2025, half of todays existing colleges will be significantly altered in mission

30 Conclusion Higher Ed must look beyond traditional and conventional boundaries so must IHE Universities must be adaptive to a changing environment- demographics How institutions approach changes will determine whether they remain competitive in the future, or if they will cease to exist Price and quality competition is likely to intensify

31 Resources College Board Higher Education Landscape Council for Higher Education Accreditation Chea Department of Education National Center for Education Statistics

32 Contact Information Fanta Aw Assistant Vice President Campus Life American University Butler Room 401B 4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington D.C. 20016 202-885-3357

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