Presentation on theme: "Trends in U.S. Higher Education"— Presentation transcript:
1Trends in U.S. Higher Education Fanta AwAssistant Vice PresidentCampus LifeAmerican UniversityWashington D.C.
2TrendsConverging Trends will shape U.S. higher education in the futureChanging landscape of higher education is a hot topic for colleges and universitiesIssues are complex—from the role new technologies to changing demographics, to rising cost, completion rate, assessment , and globalization
3TrendsOn the federal and state levels, serious questions are being asked about the role of higher education ( cost, ROI, quality)Graduation rates; Performance measures; Affordability and Access; Mode of educational delivery are being questioned
4TrendsTrends have significant implications for the future of U.S. higher educationBUT ALSOTrends have implications for international higher education Globally
57 Major Trends Affordability and Access Demography- Changing populationEducational Delivery Mode- Distance EducationPerformance assessment/Learning outcomeEconomic Downturn/CrisisPrivatization of public educationEffect of Globalization
6Overview of Enrollment and Types of Institutions Massification and Diversity of EducationCommunity Colleges and State Schools enroll the largest number of studentsPrivate/Liberal Arts Colleges constitute the largest number of institutions yet enroll small number of studentsTraditional model of college is changing- proliferation of for-profit institutions
7Number of Institutions and Total Enrollments- Select Years Source: U.S. Department of Education 19932008% ChangeNumber of Institutions3,6324,339+19.4%Enrollment14,305,00018,248,128+27.5%
8INSTITUTION TYPE 2007-08 source: U.S. Department of Education PublicPrivateTwo-yearCommunity Colleges24%Junior/Career Colleges15%Four-yearState Colleges13%Liberal Arts Colleges/University44%UniversityResearch Universities2%DIVERSITY OF INSTITUTIONS OF HIGHER EDUCATION by type and by program; resisting homogenizationLiberal Arts Colleges constitute 44% percent of all institutions, followed by community colleges 24%, junior colleges 15%, and state colleges making up 2%.However if one looks at enrollment, community colleges enroll the largest number of students pointing to a continued trend on workforce preparation demand, followed by State colleges, liberal arts colleges, and research universities.The majority of students enroll in public institutions, community colleges, states colleges and research universities ( doctoral institutions). Yet there is a perception of private institution having dominance when in fact enrollment due not point to such dominance.
9Enrollment By Institution Type 2007 Source: Department of Education PublicPrivateTwo-yearCommunity Colleges35 % (6,324,111)Career Colleges2% (293,811)Four-yearState Colleges25% (4,676,046)Liberal Arts Colleges20% (3,604,938)UniversityResearch Universities14% (2,490,615)4%(858,599)Strong emphasis on public education. Public institutions enroll close to 75% of all students. Private school only make up only 24% percent of enrollment, yet receive much attention because of the number and types of private institutions.Number of liberal arts college is high yet enroll only a small percentage of students. Research universities enrollment number are sizable.
10Issues of Affordability/Cost Parents and/or students are increasingly responsible for tuition and other feesHigher education has increasingly been seen as a private good largely benefiting individualsSurge in private higher education and the financing models have important implicationsIncreasing gaps in access to education- government attempting to close gap with government aid – PELL Grants and others
11Federal Support for Higher Education Source: Department of Education 19902008Student Aid$27 billion$83 billionResearch$12 billion$28 billionTax Incentives< $1 billion$10 billionThe notion that the government does not invest much in U.S. higher education is a myth, as the table indicates, federal support for higher education continues to be quite substantial and continues to expand. Student aid in the form of loan and grants has almost tripled in 17 years.FUNDS FOR RESEARCH HAS MORE THAN DOUBLED- however it has been a slow growth. The shift to student aid has somewhat changed the landscape of higher education quite a bit. With more money going to students and less “direct investment in higher education” has led many institutions to explore other sources of revenue (tuition, auxiliary services, endowment income).
12Trends in College Pricing 1997-98 to 2007-08 Percentage increaseAverage increase per yearPublic 4 year54%4.4 %Public 2 years17%1.4%Private 4 years33%2.9%Affordability/AccessPublic Four-Year InstitutionsOver the past decade, from to , published tuition and fees for full-time in-state students at public four-year colleges and universities rose 54 percent in inflation-adjusted dollars — an average of 4.4 percent per year. This increase compares to 49 percent for the preceding decade and 21 percent from toPublic Two-Year InstitutionsOver the past decade, from to , published tuition and fees for full-time students at public two-year colleges and universities rose 17 percent in inflation-adjusted dollars — an average of 1.5 percent per year. This increase compares to 51 percent for the preceding decade and 29 percent from toPrivate Four-Year InstitutionsOver the past decade, from to , published tuition and fees for full-time students at private four-year colleges and universities rose 33 percent in inflation-adjusted dollars — an average of 2.9 percent per year. This increase compares to 39 percent for the preceding decade and 40 percent from toA thirty-year look at college pricing reveals that rapidly rising prices are not a new development, and in fact point to somewhat of a minimal slow down in rising prices.Pricing reflect increased operational cost to higher education along with a supply/demand relationship.It is expected that with the economic downturn, pricing for public may increase at a higher rate.For the academic year, private, nonprofit colleges are keeping tuition increases to the lowest average rate in 37 years--4.3%--while increasing institutionally provided aid more than twice as fast--9%. This is nothing new. In the past 10 years, institutional grant aid at private colleges has increased more than twice the rate of tuition. Colleges, however, can not do it alone. Falling endowments, declining fundraising and growing student need have pressed many college budgets to the breaking point. Salary freezes and cuts, staff layoffs, and postponed or canceled campus construction and renovation projects have hit institutions nationwide.Over the last three years, Congress has begun to address the problem, making important investments in Pell grants, federal work study and student loans. And this year, the Obama administration is proposing to transfer some of the government's savings from reforms in the federal loan programs to further increasing Pell grants and Perkins loans.contrary to popular myth, federal student aid does not feed tuition increases at private colleges and universities. Two U.S. Department of Education studies have shown that there are "no associations between federal grants, state grants, and student loans and changes in tuition," and "there is little evidence that federal student aid increases have contributed to tuition inflation."
13Affordability/Access Borrowing Culture for Education= InvestmentTuition cost continue to increase at a rate higher than inflation or consumer price indexConsumer not deterred- enrollment continues to be on the rise reflecting a high demand and a willingness to pay due to the perception that price=qualityFinancial aid system places financially needy students at a great disadvantageStratification of students- African Americans attending college remain at 20 percentage points lower than whitesA survey conducted by the CIRP in indicate that 52 percent of students indicated some concerns in affording post-secondary education.36 percent indicated major concerns in affording higher education.The practice of tuition discounting or price discrimination—charging different students different prices forthe same educational opportunities—is a long-standing feature of private higher education institutions.
14Affordability Strategies Strategic use of non-need-based institutional aid to attract certain types of students to an institution is on the increase- “Bidding war for high profile students to increase ranking”Discounting of tuition- averaging 35%- use of institutional grantsPressure/scrutiny by Congress- Elite schools are asked to spend more of endowment on financial aid- proposed 5%Increase recruitment of full-paying international students
15Affordability Strategies Elite school choosing to boost aid to middle, upper middle class familiesHarvard, Yale, Stanford, Dartmouth, U Penn boosting financial aidCreation of 3 year degree programs and increased enrollment in distance education
16Demographic Trends 1996-2016 (in millions) Source: College Board 20062016UndergradFull-time7,169,0009,009,00010,330,000Grad & Professional1,046,0001,341,0001,715,000Enrollment is expected to increase in both public and private degree-granting institutions. the US Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics predicts that college enrollment will grow 16% over the next ten years. Children of the baby boomers are coming of age in larger number and enrolling in college.Factors affecting the projectionsChanges in age-specific enrollment rates and college-age populations will affect enrollment levels The most important factor is the expected increase in the traditional college-age population of 18- to 24-year-olds. Total enrollment is expected to increase between percent. Approximately “42 percent of all students at both private and public institutions are age 25 or older” (Aslanian, 2001, p. 4). Not only are they numerous, adult learners are the fastest-growing population in higher education. While the number of year-old students increased only 41% between 1970 and 2000, the number of adult students increased 170% (Aslanian, 2001; “Lifelong,” 2002). Some factors that might influence this phenomenon include “the growth of continuing education programs, economic necessity, the rapidly changing job market, changes in the economy, and the simple aging of student populations” (Bishop, 2003, p. 374).Like growth in adult learners, the percentage of women and minority learners is increasing. More women than men now enroll in college (57% of students are women), a trend supported by the fact that more women are entering the workforce (“Lifelong,” 2002). Among minorities, the proportion of women is even higher: “60% of Hispanic and two-thirds of African-American college students are women” (Cetron, 2003, p. 10). If enrollment follows population projections, higher education can expect this trend to continue—the Hispanic population in the U.S. is expected to increase 63% by 2020, reaching 55 million people
17Changing Student Population More Latino, African-American, Veterans and disabled StudentsRetirement of baby boomersChanging pattern of attendance- more part-time or intermittent participationCommunity Colleges and for-profit institutions best at capturing the changing demographicsMost elite colleges will continue to serve traditional college students ( whites , middle class, women)
18Online/Distance Education Forefront of providing accessibility to students around the worldIn response to non-traditional students- Non traditional students expected to be the norm in the futuretechnology as a means to break down geographic, ethnic/racial, economic barriers to educationChallenging universities to rewire their way of thinking to begin to meet student needs – digital generationExpected growth of 33% in next decadeOver $15 billion industryKey factors for growth includeThe current higher education infrastructure cannot accommodate the growing college-aged population and enrollments, making more distance education programs necessary.2. Students are shopping for courses that meet their schedules and circumstances because of work and cost.3. Higher-education learner profiles, including online, information-age, and adult learners, are changing.Online students are becoming an entirely new subpopulation of higher-education learners. They are “generally older, have completed more college credit hours and more degree programs, and have a higher all-college GPA than their traditional counterparts”Today’s adult learners differ still from traditional college-age students. They tend to be practical problem solvers. Their life experiences make them autonomous, self-directed, and goal- and relevancy-oriented.4. The percentage of adult, female, and minority learners is increasing.Approximately “42 percent of all students at both private and public institutions are age 25 or older” (Aslanian, 2001, p. 4). Not only are they numerous, adult learners are the fastest-growing population in higher education. While the number of year-old students increased only 41% between 1970 and 2000, the number of adult students increased 170% (Aslanian, 2001; “Lifelong,” 2002). Some factors that might influence this phenomenon include “the growth of continuing education programs, economic necessity, the rapidly changing job market, changes in the economy, and the simple aging of student populations.5. The institutional landscape of higher education is changing: traditional campuses are declining, for-profit institutions are growing, and public and private institutions are merging.“The number of degree-granting institutions will continue to grow, while the number of traditional campuses will decline. By 2025, half of today’s existing independent colleges will be closed, merged, or significantly altered in mission” (p. 37). Another aspect changing in higher education is the blurring line between public and private universities, especially in the financial arena. Dunn also predicted that “the distinctions between and among public and private, for-profit and nonprofit institutions of higher education will largely disappear”6. Instruction is becoming more learner-centered, non-linear, and self-directed.7. Lifelong learning is becoming a competitive necessity.Some have estimated that people change careers, on average, every 10 years (Cetron, 2003). Labor Department officials estimate that approximately 40% of the workforce change jobs every year (De Alva, 2000). Undoubtedly, “the changing nature of the workforce in the Information Age … [will require] a continuous cycle of retraining and retooling” . To add to the demands for a dynamic workforce, retirement will be delayed until late in life. In such circumstances, “the opportunity for training is becoming one of the most desirable benefits any job can offer,”
19Online/Distance Education Growth include efforts to expand access to more students, alleviate capacity constraints, capitalize on emerging market opportunities, and serve as a catalyst for institutional transformationFactor influencing growth is competitionUniversities offering online/distance education are often perceived as modern and [technologically] competent, thus creating a competitive advantage
20Distance Education Mammoth University of Phoenix has 280,000 students around the worldLargest private university in the United States with internet courses163 campuses and learning centers in 33 states, Puerto Rico, Canada and Mexico
21Accountability In Performance shift toward accountability- Learning Outcome- skills, knowledge, abilitiesShift from “theoretical” and “seat-based time” to “outcomes-based” or “employer-based” competencyWith an emphasis on competency, course content will be dictated more “by what learners need, [than] by what has been traditionally done”Shift from enrollment rate to completion outcomeWhat is a “Student Learning Outcome?” Student learning outcomes are properly defined in terms of the knowledge,skills, and abilities that a student has attained at the end (or as a result) of his or her engagement in a particular set of higher education experiences.Evidence of student learning outcomes can take many forms, but should involve direct examination of studentperformance-either for individual students or for representative samples of students. Examples of the types of evidencethat might be used appropriately in accreditation settings include (but are not limited to):• Faculty-designed comprehensive or capstone examinations and assignments.• Performance on licensing or other external examinations.• Professionally judged performances or demonstrations of abilities in context.• Portfolios of student work compiled over time.• Samples of representative student work generated in response to typical course assignments.
22Drivers for Accountability Students and Families as ConsumersGovernment- State and FederalAccess and AffordabilityReturn on InvestmentFunding tied to new metricsEmployerscertification is becoming more preferable than a degreeDiplomas are less meaningful to employers; knowledge, performance, and skills are what count to themintegrating applied or on-the-job experience into academic programs” as a critical characteristic of universities in the 21st century
23Economic Downturn Impact of Crisis on notable institutions Cornell, Brown, Darmouth, U Penn, HarvardThe case for State UniversitiesUC system- 20% budget cut for AY 2009Others range from 10-20%Greater funding for community Colleges-Obama Administration“Trading Down” decision- moving from private to public and from 4 yr to 2yr institution
24Implications for IHE?Globalization and trends in mobility of students-new players ( Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, etc)Diversity argument may become harder to justify- given demographic shiftsKey is integrating “multiculturalism” and “International Education”Need to focus on preparing “Global citizens” for the “global economy.”Issue is “How do we measure success and learning outcome ?
25Implications for IHE?Cost of U.S. higher education will be an on-going challenge, thus expanding global mobility of students to other parts of the world.U.S. share of global market will continue to declineU.S. Higher Education must continue to successfully argue the “value added” dimension if it is to compete effectivelyGrowth and opportunity mostly in S&E where supply of U.S. student are limitedResearch 1 Universities and Community Colleges to continue to experience growth
26Implications for IHE?Technology capabilities will continue to encourage the rise of global universitiesThere will be an increase in alternative delivery systems, including the creation of foreign campusesEmerging Economies will account for majority of global capacity and significantly define the Global HE profile ( China, India, Brazil, Chile, South Africa, Malaysia, etc)
27Implications for IHE? HE to become of a globally traded commodity Protectionist barriers may arise due to security, differential pricingCompetitiveness will require rapid innovation in subject matter AND pedagogyPrivate funding for HE will increase significantly
28ConclusionLearning is not just about covering content, it's about developing competency- Competitive advantage of U.S. Higher EducationInstruction is becoming more learner-centered, non- linear, and self-directedStudents are consumers with a choice – and HEd must yield to demandReform of quality and accreditation metrics to be expected ( value for money, employment outcomes)Must align technology with pedagogy
29ConclusionLifelong learning is becoming a competitive necessity- career changes on average every 10 years – need for retooling, retrainingTraditional campuses are declining, for-profit institutions are growing, and public and private institutions are mergingNumber of degree-granting institutions will growBy 2025, half of today’s existing colleges will be significantly altered in mission
30ConclusionHigher Ed must look beyond traditional and conventional boundaries so must IHEUniversities must be adaptive to a changing environment- demographicsHow institutions approach changes will determine whether they remain competitive in the future, or if they will cease to existPrice and quality competition is likely to intensifyThe social, technological, ecological, economic, and information challenges of our time require a whole new approach to education." (Dickinson)
31Resources Department of Education College Board Higher Education LandscapeCouncil for Higher Education AccreditationChea :www.chea.orgDepartment of EducationNational Center for Education Statistics