Presentation on theme: "Contributions of WMO Commision of Climatology for improved Humanitarian Planning and Response Rodney Martínez Güingla Co-Chair Open Panel of CCl Experts."— Presentation transcript:
Contributions of WMO Commision of Climatology for improved Humanitarian Planning and Response Rodney Martínez Güingla Co-Chair Open Panel of CCl Experts – 4 Climate Information for Adaptation and Risk Management Geneva, August, 2010
CCl-XV Management Structure 4.3 Task Team on CRM
OPACE 4 Overview: The objective of OPACE 4 is to improve decision-making for planning, operations, risk management and for adaptation to both climate change and variability (covering time scales from seasonal to centennial) and will be achieved through a higher level of climate knowledge, as well as by access to and use of actionable information and products, tailored to meet their needs.
OPACE 4 Overview: Core activities The activities to be undertaken under OPACE-4 should primarily focus on development of tailored climate information, products and services for user application in adaptation and risk management, and on interface with user groups. These activities will provide key contributions to the Climate User Interface Programme (CUIP) component of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The work of OPACE 4 is multidisciplinary, and requires close collaboration with experts from various socio- economic sectors.
Climate Services to improve Early Warning, Preparedness and Response: some positive experiences in South America Rodney Martínez Güingla August, 2010
MISSION MISSION To promote, complement, and start scientific and application research projects, to improve El Niño as well as Climate variability comprehension and early warning at regional scale in order to reduce their social and economical impacts and generate a solid base to promote sustainable development policies to cope with new climate scenarios
GENERATE GOVERNMENTAL AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES RESPONSE GENERATE GOVERNMENTAL AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES RESPONSE OPTIMIZE INFORMATION SYSTEMS OPTIMIZE INFORMATION SYSTEMS CLIMATE HYSTORICAL ANALYSIS- CLIMATE FORECAST Climate Variability Subseasonal (MJO) Seasonal Interannual (ENSO) Decadal Climate Variability Subseasonal (MJO) Seasonal Interannual (ENSO) Decadal CLIMATE EARLY WARNING SECTORAL CLIMATE RISK MAPS SECTORAL CLIMATE RISK MAPS Martínez R., 2004 Communicate to end user is the last mile to build up a real people Centered Climate EW system.. International Research Centre on El Niño Sasakawa Mention of Merit 2009
From Early Warning to Climate Risk Management… From Early Warning to Climate Risk Management… SOCIAL AND ECONOMICAL IMPACTS REDUCTION Public Policies And other Instruments GovernmentsResponseGovernmentsResponse RISK TRANSFERENCE EarlyWarningEarlyWarning SECTORAL PLANNING LAND USE MANAGEMENT DESCENTRALIZATION LOCAL AUTHORITIES Incentives SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT Martínez R., 2004 DISASTERS RISK REDUCTION, PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE, CONTINGENCY FUNDS International Research Centre on El Niño Sasakawa Mention of Merit 2009
RCOF: Opportunity to identify sectoral needs in each country. Mutual learning process between providers and users Identify key partners. Opportunity to review and coordinate further actions.
The evolution of the Seasonal Forecast in WCSA 2010
Other Regional Climate and Ocean Information Products
Tailoring Climate Products: Some best practices
Climate Information as a regional public good From Concept to Action
Application of Regional Public Goods principles for Climate information 1) To improve the existing capabilities on NMHSs through a collective action. 2) To share the knowledge of nation-specific benefits and the experience of NMHSs to improve the understanding and prediction of the regional climate but also providing benefits to each country. 3) To contribute on the reduction of asymmetries among countries. 4) To demonstrate through facts that a regional climate service can only be enhanced as a result of the improvement of the national components. 5) To agree on a regional coordination mechanism, in WCSA region this role has bee assumed by CIIFEN.
First Data integration between NMHS from Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela. Online data display records. 171 meteorological stations with data from 1960 to Formal Protocol signed by the 6 NMHS and CIIFEN WCSA Regional Climate Data Base
OPERATIONAL STATISTCAL DOWNSCALING
OPERATIONAL DYNAMIC DOWNSCALING
Statistical Regional Training Workshop. Maracay-Venezuela, October2007. Dinamic Modeling Regional Training Workshop. Lima-Peru, November Improving Climate Modeling capacities in WCSA Numerical Modeling Regional Training Workshop. Guayaquil- Ecuador, May 2008 More than 150 experts from the region have been trained since 2005.
Climate-Agriculture Risk Mapping System in the Andean Countries ECUADOR CHILEPERÚ COLOMBIA VENEZUELA BOLIVIA CROPS: Venezuela: Rice, Corn, Sorghum and Sesame Colombia: Flowers (Roses), Rice. Ecuador: Corn, soybean and rice. Bolivia: Potato, haba y quinoa. Perú: Potato, corn and artichoke. Chile: citrus(orange, lemon and Mandarin orange), avocato.
Bolivia Colombia Ecuador Perú The Atlas of the dynamics of the Andean territory is an approach for the knowledge integration and cartography in the sub region. A Result of the interaction and cooperation of the statistics, geological, geographical, hidro-meteorological and seismologic services. Financed by the European Commission, SG CAN, CAPRADE in the frame of the project PREDECAN. Coordinated by the OSSO Corporation – Colombia in collaboration with CIIFEN – Ecuador, FUNDEPCO, OXFAM GB, and PREDES–Perú. ATLAS OF THE DYNAMICS OF ANDEAN TERRITORY
The importance of Building dissemination networks For climate products
Wide dissemination by media End User Magazines Newspaper Radio Internet Mobil Phones Modeling Climate Data Base Statistical Analysis Risk maps Bulletins Media articles Movil messages Radio Authorities –Private Sector – Rescue Groups - Community Climate Information system in the Andean countries Information translated into simple language Involving Private sector Technical Information with added value
Community-based Climate Information Network Authorities and Community Local Media Private Sector Working with the Community ….. for Local Risk Reduction
Alliances Signed with Key Stakeholders Mobil Phone Company Private Sector Information Flow with the media Ecuador: Los Ríos mar08 Bolivia: El Alto dic08 Venezuela: Maracay sept/08 Chile: V Región oct/08 Including private sector Perú, aug./08 Improving the Climate information Chain (1)
Installation of radio equipment for 10 locations of intervention area in Ecuador. Divided between the offices of INAMHI and COEs ESMERALDAS CHONE BABAHOYO MACHALA MOVISTAR and MESSAGE PLUS, agreed to assign free messages to a group of 1000 users previously identified in areas prone to flooding. Alliance with Telefónica MOVISTAR INAMHI inform: intense precipitation over central zone of Manabí for the next 6 hours. WARNING. Use of Climate Risk Maps Training Workshops. Ministry of Litoral-Ecuador Applied to: Agriculture, Health, Education, Building, Human settlements and Biodiversity. Installation of HF Radio Equipment for alternate emergency communications BOLIVIA Pachaqamasa radio (El Alto, Bolivia) interview about climate information use in Aymará native language NMS is working on translation and bulletins shipping with Forecast in Aymará through Pachaqamasa radio (Bolivia) Improving the Climate information Chain (2)
Building up an educational Kit of Climate Risk to Local Comunities Learning to communicate and assimilate the climate information in a friendly way. Communicating on the basis of social and cultural profile of end users. Pilot experiences implemented in Ecuador, Bolivia, Peru and Chile.
Chapter I: The Virtual Core of Climatic Applications (NVAC) Chapter II: Implementation of statistical models for climatic prediction Chapter III: Implementation of Numerical Models for climatic prediction Chapter IV: Implementation of Agro-climatic Risk Maps Chapter V: Implementation of local systems of climatic information dissemination Chapter VI: Strengthening building capacity in the in the South America west region Chapter VII: Performance Indicators. Chapter VIII: Learned lessons Chapter IX: future actions Chapter X: Elements of Sustainability ftp://ciifen- int.org/Technical_Guide_of_a_Regional_Climate_I nformation_System.pdf Published December 2009
A proposal to build a prototype where Seasonal Forecasts could be used for Humanitarian Planning and Response
Seasonal Forecast Sectoral climate sensitivity analysis + coping capacity Specific Product (month to season) That allows to activate specific procedures for humanitarian and response planning
Conclusions WMO-CCl has established several activities that could provide effective support to the expected outcomes of this Task Team within the Climate domain during the upcoming years. One of the best ways to start an effective implementation could be through a prototype design in a particular region where conditions allow to obtain results and generate benefits quickly and then replicate it in other parts of the world. (recognize and replicate best practices)
Producto + red de distribución Combinación de información climática sobre la vulnerabilidad del territorio. De la infromación climática a la siniestralidad Convertir un pronóstico estacional en una estimación de condiciones de alistamiento con los NMHSs. Conectar a las DRM institutions dentro del network. Sostenibilidad de las operaciones. Una fuerte componente regional y nacional Ejemplos Índices, ENSO local impacts y análisis de historial de eventos extremos. Privilegiar la red de distribución por encima del portal. Considerar que el hecho de trabajar de arrriba hacia abajo puede dificultar las operaciones si los NMHS y entidades nacionales no están debidamente involucradas. Sedes nacionales de agencias globales no siempre están al tanto de la diversidad de portales. Aproximación similar (estadísticas históricas) puede usarse para temas de producción agrícola y seguridad alimentaria. Para temas hidrológicos se está en proceso con HYDROF en WCSA. Main ideas
It is important to combine climate products with sectoral vulnerability in a geo- Information platform, e.g GIS. This demands to convert the classic climate predictions in some spatual products That can activate specific protocols for contingency planning and prepardeness. Seasonal Forecasts for example can be combined with historical information of hydro-meteorological events which caused damages (sinisters). If we expect above normal precipitation in a specific season and the historical analysis Shows a high ocurrence of events with damages, then, some warning can be given to Activate certain contingency plans. If this combined condition persist, the level of this warning can Be increased
RCOFs could provide good opportunities to learn about the Humanitarian and Emergency needs in a regional context. RCOFs allow a mutual learning process between climate information providers and users. Since, RCOFS involve National institutions of several countries, they also provide the Possibility of improving coordination for humanitarian and emergency operations. In some regions, RCOFs have derived in operational mechanisms for Regional seasonal forecasts, That can be tailored to address the specific needs of Humanitarian and emergency operations.