2TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT is… Systematic exploration of the longer-term future of science and technology, and their potential impacts on society, with a view to identifying emerging factors driving change, and the areas of scientific research and technological development likely to influence change and yield the greatest economic, environmental and social benefits over the next years.
3The DisclaimerThe ideas, potential developments and prospective events envisioned in this report have been identified by participants as situations that could occur in the future. They do not purport to be predictive. The approach we are taking relies upon consulting a wide range of expertise, with the expectation that through our collective experience, imaginative abilities and interactive knowledge of technological development pathways, we can begin to construct a coherent view of some of the major developments that can be anticipated within a time horizon.This is the nature of foresight - creating a range of plausible future elements that in their diversity should alert readers to the kinds of issues and perspectives they may not have initially considered in longer term research planning and contingency thinking. Accordingly, this report reflects the combined views of the participants, and the best wisdom and creative thinking that we could stimulate with the tools of foresight, but it clearly does not represent an official view of the Government of Canada or any of its Departments and or Agencies.
4STFP Project Background Pilot project proposed by NRC, endorsed by FINE DMs and ADMs.Pilot project independent of any other S&T funding.Funded by participating agencies.Multi-departmental Working Group identified 2 key technology sectors for study:GEOSTRATEGICS: including geo-spatial data sensing, gathering, artificial intelligence, pattern analysis and knowledge management.BIOSYSTEMICS: including nano to global biotechnology, eco and food systems, emergent and convergent trends in health, genomics & disease mitigation and cognitive science.Project Team led by NRC Office of Technology Foresight composed of seconded staff and consultantsThis chart represents the work done in defining the TFPP by the initial working group.It is the concept presented to, and approved by, the FINE ADMs.
5PROJECT OBJECTIVESCreate a futures context & discussion framework for the development of policies, agendas & investment strategies for S&T and R&D.Initiate a network to create discussion and emerging consensus on where and how to collaborate among departments, agencies & other stakeholders.Strengthen & focus networks of collaboration among Canadian & international experts in advanced 'geo' and 'bio' S&T.Design and test a collaborative learning methodology and process for the inclusion of S&T input to the policy process.There are 2 defining concepts in the objectives:The first is to take a long term view of S&T, R&DThe second is to do it in a collaborative mannerThe second concept is important because of the fragmented role science advice plays in the overall policy process
6Communities of Purpose Communities of Practice Purpose & PracticeSociety and PoliticsEconomics and FinanceCommunities of PurposeEnvironmentResource ManagementEconomic DevelopmentHealthSecurityThis graphic indicates the interwoven communities of purpose and communities of practice.Science and TechnologyCommunities of Practice
7Communities of Purpose Alignment along priority areasOften operate as specialty ‘silos’Use S&T as a specialty skill setCompete for attention and fundingMay have conflicting priorities:Environment vs. Resource managementEconomic development vs. SecurityShort term efficiency vs Long term effectivenessOpportunities may be missed or problems narrowed to comply with mission boundariesCommunities of purpose focus on what must be done.They gravitate into clusters in which a common interest and expertise is shared, be that environmental protectionism or security.Communities of purpose may conflict, strategically and tactically/financially.
8Communities of Practice Alignment based on horizontal, affiliated disciplines with traditional ways of working together on broad issuesSociety and PoliticsValue-based, distributes authorityOperates on political, executive levelEconomics and FinanceMoney-based, distributes resourceOperates at central bureaucratic levelCommunities of practice are shown horizontally and reflect the way in which issues are resolved and problems solved.They also drive their own definition of what success looks like.The Society and Politics views the world in terms of values, what is socially or politically important. Decisions in this community are made within Cabinet and executive levels of the government.Economics and Finance view the world in fiscal terms. Treasury Board and the central agencies make allocative decisions, lower levels of the bureaucracy execute them.There is a continuous tension between social priorities and financial ones.
9Science and Technology Knowledge-based, distributes capabilityFragmented, does not act as a true horizontal policy vectorTraditions of inter-disciplinarity only now developingSignificant innovation potentialEfficiency of existing programsFormulation of new policiesAvoidance of problems created by a purely commercial research agendaThe S&T community of practice is based on knowledge.Outside the policy space it forms an integrated, well structured body of knowledge (at least compared to other bodies of knowledge).Inside policy space it is used on an ‘as required’ basis, usually in the most rudimentary, technical way.Challenge is to build bridges between areas of S&T expertise in order to get a MUCH greater contribution to overall public sector innovation as well as to public policy.
10A Range of Prospects Sustainability science; Remote environmental sensingMetabolomics;Technology convergence/geneticsDNA-based early warning;Advanced power systemsMicrobial ecosystems;Remote diagnosis/diseasesPersonalized medicine;Biotechnology;Human global health/environmentPredictive modelling;Security/Info systems, networksIntegrated nanotechnologyRegenerative medicineAdvanced computational systemsClimate change from spaceSustainable manufacturingIntelligent robotics systemsSpace for environmental securityBiomass energyChanging northern environmentSpace-enabling technologiesBiodiversity/Invasive speciesCanada’s sea floorVirtual oceanProteomics/economy, healthSpace Surveillance and National SecurityIntelligent Autonomous Systems.Clean hydrocarbons, H2Sensors/Activators - healthBiodiversity info for KBESecurity of Info Infrastructure
11GeostrategicsThe future horizons and applications of geo-spatial data and related knowledge management technologies for decision support, including pattern recognition software, wireless communications infrastructure futures, and links to major new capacities in surveillance, ecological monitoring and resource management technologies.
12The Geostrategics ?How will geo-strategic knowledge, technology and prospective applications likely to be available in 2015 reshape our understanding of Canada, its land, sea and air/space resources, and provide new capabilities for national security, and the stewardship and sustainability of Canada’s resources?
13BiosystemicsThe convergence of nanotechnology, ecological science, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences, and their prospective impacts on materials science, the management of complex public systems for bio-health, eco and food system integrity and disease mitigation.
14The Biosystemics ?How can the federal government better understand the complexities and interdependencies of Canada’s food, health and environmental systems, and develop a 10+ year horizon of actionable intelligence for research and policy in these areas, given new knowledge about emergence, behavior of populations, disease ecology, genomics, etc.?
15BioSystemics Characteristics ScaleNano-scale observations at low endData handling and simulation at high endConvergenceUnity at the material levelConsilienceHigh level models may result in unity at theoretical levelEmergenceSeeking to understand rules for networks, tipping points, systems structure, chaos and complexityThe bio topic arises as a result of expanding S&T knowledge into both small and large scale.At the nano scale, there is unity at the material level (convergence).At the giga scale, there is unity at the theoretical level (Consilience).
16Science and Scale SCALE Physics Chemistry Biology Giga scale Increased ExaPetaTeraGigaMegaKiloHectoDeca1DeciCentiMilliMicroNanoPicoFemtoAttoSCALEPhysicsChemistryBiologyGiga scaleIncreasedUnderstandingof systemsDynamics &integrationNanoscaleIncreased abilityTo observe &Work with matterAt atomic levelepidemiologySemiconductorphotonicsgenomicsbioinformaticsecologybiogenerationGenetic engineeringThis graphic shows how the ‘normal’ sciences, as defined ar the ‘human scale’ overlap each other.
17Convergence Computers Biotech Bits Genes Neurons Atoms Networks At eh nano level, the small components can be analyzed using similar concepts and tools.NeuronsAtomsNetworksNanotech
18Consilience Unity of theory and knowledge Vertical integration using computational modelsHybrid technologiesNano-medecineQuantum computingMay well include social sciencesAt the other end of the scale, powerful computing techniques, data-mining, simulation and artificial intelligence enable us to build ‘bottom-up’ models of very complex systems.Nano Bio Info/Cogno
19GeoStrategics Value System This is the value chain. In the middle you have the spatial data, images and databases, standards etc. that make up the Geospatial infrastructure. One step out, you will see the various industry players that help make it work, such as Global Positioning Systems, Geographic Information Systems, Remote Sensing players, just to mention a few. The outer circle represents the sectors that GeoStrategic information and knowledge impacts; such as environment, telecom, cities, energy etc.
20Focus & ScopeWe approach Geostrategics from a application perspective, as opposed to the technology areas offered in Biosystemics.6 Topics Identified by the Scoping workshop:Environment & ResourcesNational Security & EmergencyTransportationSustainable Cities and Urban DevelopmentHeath Risks and HazardsOcean and Inland Water ResourcesOur technical panels explore the future in these 6 areas and some of these areas are linked quite strongly together, such as sustainable cities and the environment. Under national security, we actually reflect on all sectors of of lives in the new security scenario.
21Convergence Of Sciences & Advanced Technologies GeosciencePhotonicsIncreased ScientificUnderstanding &Improved ModelsImproved Sensors &AdvancedPlatformsClimatologyNanotechnologyTwo week weather predictionLand/ biosphere predictionPrediction of air/water qualityPrediction of natural hazardsEfficient management of resourcesEnable:Climate/ environmental predictionAtmospheric ScienceMeteorology•BiologyOceanography••RoboticsMapping•We see under Geostratgics a broad based convergence of many sciences and technologies to provide a solution for a specific problem.•EcologyKnowledge Management•Lower LaunchCostsHigh bandwidthCommunication SystemsAdvanced ITSystemsSystems, InternetReal-Time SystemsRenewable EnergyAdvanced MaterialsUrban StudiesIT = Information Technology
22Spectrum of Breakthrough GeoStrategic Technologies Needed SensorsSensor WebInformation SynthesisAccess to KnowledgeScience & ArchitecturesSensorsSensorweb••Adaptive Data3D DetectorsManagement•Non-Linear Optics•Automated Calibration•TunableLidar•Reconfigurable•Advanced microwaveCommunications•Autonomous Operations•MicroLidar•Multi-Functional•Warm Focal PlanesStructures•Large Telescopes and•Rad-TolerantAntennasMicroelectronicsHere are some of the technologies that we are talking about in about years.•Biological MarkersInformation SynthesisAccess to Knowledge•Space/Ground ProgrammingEnv..•Human-Computer Interface for•Reconfiguration ManagementGeo-Spatial Datasets•Open Model Architecture•Collaborative Environments•Parallel Systems•Distributed Visualization•Geo-spatial DBMS•High Bandwidth Delivery Systems••Data Mining/Dynamic Data FusionStandards & Protocols•Geo-reference StandardsSource: Dr. Bob Ryerson, NRCan
23DELIVERABLES & REPORTING Summaries of results for each stage: scoping workshops; technical panels; synthesis, and scenarios.High priority 'robust' + disruptive or transformative technologies.Potential collaborative R&D strategies.Potential new planning and contingency roles or foci for government, industry and academia.Suggestions for action, including; horizontal S&T/R&D mechanisms and partnerships, capacity requirements, best practices, & improvements to project methodology.
24Nanotechnology Present Future Convergence Consilience Nanotubes Nano-coatingsLiposomesLapping compoundsFutureQuantum dotsCatalystSETSelf-org manufactureConvergenceMicrobivoresPhotonic crystalsMolecular switchingSensorsPresent:Nanotubes – hardness of diamond plus electrical conductivityNano-coatings – paint on ships; surface of hard drivesLiposomes – small structures to deliver therapeutic agentsLapping compounds – precision manufacturingFuture:Quantum dots – tracing and sensing biological functionsCatalysts – in powder or surface formsSET – single electron transistor, small sensors & amplifiersSelf-organizing manufacture. Building of 3-D structures, micro lithographyConvergenceMicrobivores – 100 hungrier than red blood cellsPhotonic crystals – for computing and networksMolecular switching – tiny mechanical calculatorsSensors – detect biological activity non-invasivelyConsilience:Reproduce natural processes such as DNA encoding/de-codingEnable creation of large computing networksConsilienceReproduction of natural processes (DNA)Enable macro n/w
25Info-Cogno Technology PresentMoore’s LawInternetData MiningSimulationFutureAI - SmartControlsAutonomicPervasiveConvergenceBio-interfaceAsynchronousLow energy chipGigaflop modelingConsilienceSingularity – change so rapid it can only be managed by trans-humans
26Systemics Present Future Convergence Consilience Top-down models EpidemiologyModel resultsH. Scale dynamicsFutureBottom-upEco-epidemiologyModel basic activityMicro-dynamicsConvergenceBiological modelsReplicationAdaptationHeuristicConsilienceUnified world view will require high level of cross-disciplinary education.
27Geostrategic Future? Future: Present: Distributed silosFragmented data collectionFragmented infrastructure, systemsSome InterconnectionsData focusedLack of real-time coverage, data, systemsDifficult data integrationFuture:Integrated Geo Utility at system levelOpen system integrated infrastructureIntegrated data collectionSeamless to users; “get what you want when you want it”Real-time coverage, data and systemsSignificantly wirelessIntegrated, inexpensive sensorsAI and pattern recognition & pervasive surveillanceSensor webs with bio, physical, chemical and physical measurementsPeer to peer calibration and validation real timeSmart mapsSmart systemsInformation and decision support focused for customersThis is the value chain. In the middle you have the spatial data, images and databases, standards etc. that make up the Geospatial infrastructure. One step out, you will see the various industry players that help make it work, such as Global Positioning Systems, Geographic Information Systems, Remote Sensing players, just to mention a few. The outer circle represents the sectors that GeoStrategic information and knowledge impacts; such as environment, telecom, cities, energy etc.
28Geostrategics Wild Cards Technology acceptance (e.g. privacy vs. security)International conflicts, warTerrorist attacks (chemical, biological, radioactive, nuclear, information, internet)Unexpected natural disasters (floods, droughts, hurricanes etc.)Climate change accelerationSatellite, ground station failuresCollapse of the economy, financial systemCollapse of the United Nations, change in world orderHuman made disasters and accidents (e.g. Walkerton, genetic accident)Technology breakthroughs or commercialization of unknown military technologies with significant impactPandemicInterstellar events
29Range of Enabling Technologies NanotechnologyDesigner materialsIncreasing information processing power of semiconductors, photonic, DNA, quantum computingHigh speed, high bandwidth communicationsSemantic internetSmart systems and agentsAutonomic software (self-repair and automatic code generation)Wireless communications, including peer to peer communications and computingPortable fuel cells and new forms of power generationReal-time information systemsRobotics, nanoroboticsOrganic, bio sensorsIntegrated, inexpensive, smart sensors (nano, bio, chemical, physical, optical)New human-machine interfaces (e.g. direct link to the brain)Virtual reality based visioning and decision-support toolsTelepresenceSmart vehicle technologiesGeopositioning systemsMicro, nano satellite constellationsOcean technologies
30Scenario ApproachesAxes of Uncertainty: boundaries of expectation, quadrants of contrastThemes that Colour: technovectors and societal receptions; social diversityProjective Analytics : projecting the present and adding “spice to the space”Wildcards and Inversions: thinking the unthinkable and the reversalsS&T Emergent & Determinant: technology as the dominant driver and critical differentiator
31Scenario PurposesTracking emergence & prospective impacts of influential trends & technologiesInforming R&D planners, policy makersEngaging, coalescing strategic thinkingElucidation of unseen connections, new insightsEvaluating & comparing a range of scenarios to assess robustness of technologiesFacilitating long term R&D and strategic investmentsImagining future knowledge & skills needs, job shifts
32e.g. 15 Potential ThemesGAIA Strikes Back– technology & systems collapses, pervasive barriersAgility Advantage Can : succeeding, adapting, competing, diversifyingCo-Evolu-Innova-tion: Gov’t & communities as co-innovatorsInsecure Cocoon: terrorism unchecked, ever presentVirtual Avatar: cyber-realityGenomic Anomic: biotech transformations & upsetsComfortably Numb: big brother takes care through technologyBirkenstock Bicycle: toward assured sustainabilityCool is Cruel: cultural fixations for technology, & fast shiftsO Say Can You C AmeriCanada?: Canada slow merge into the USANavigation Net: fully enabled wireless net functionalityTechno Freak: reversals of socio-technical potential into problemsOther Sides: parallel worlds of values & technology co-existingTrue North Long & Narrow: life on the fringeInvisible Hand: vibrant 21st century marketplaces
33VII. Implications for Federal Research & Development