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TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT is…

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Presentation on theme: "TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT is…"— Presentation transcript:

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2 TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT is…
Systematic exploration of the longer-term future of science and technology, and their potential impacts on society, with a view to identifying emerging factors driving change, and the areas of scientific research and technological development likely to influence change and yield the greatest economic, environmental and social benefits over the next years.

3 The Disclaimer The ideas, potential developments and prospective events envisioned in this report have been identified by participants as situations that could occur in the future. They do not purport to be predictive. The approach we are taking relies upon consulting a wide range of expertise, with the expectation that through our collective experience, imaginative abilities and interactive knowledge of technological development pathways, we can begin to construct a coherent view of some of the major developments that can be anticipated within a time horizon. This is the nature of foresight - creating a range of plausible future elements that in their diversity should alert readers to the kinds of issues and perspectives they may not have initially considered in longer term research planning and contingency thinking.  Accordingly, this report reflects the combined views of the participants, and the best wisdom and creative thinking that we could stimulate with the tools of foresight, but it clearly does not represent an official view of the Government of Canada or any of its Departments and or Agencies.

4 STFP Project Background
Pilot project proposed by NRC, endorsed by FINE DMs and ADMs. Pilot project independent of any other S&T funding. Funded by participating agencies. Multi-departmental Working Group identified 2 key technology sectors for study: GEOSTRATEGICS: including geo-spatial data sensing, gathering, artificial intelligence, pattern analysis and knowledge management. BIOSYSTEMICS: including nano to global biotechnology, eco and food systems, emergent and convergent trends in health, genomics & disease mitigation and cognitive science. Project Team led by NRC Office of Technology Foresight composed of seconded staff and consultants This chart represents the work done in defining the TFPP by the initial working group. It is the concept presented to, and approved by, the FINE ADMs.

5 PROJECT OBJECTIVES Create a futures context & discussion framework for the development of policies, agendas & investment strategies for S&T and R&D. Initiate a network to create discussion and emerging consensus on where and how to collaborate among departments, agencies & other stakeholders. Strengthen & focus networks of collaboration among Canadian & international experts in advanced 'geo' and 'bio' S&T. Design and test a collaborative learning methodology and process for the inclusion of S&T input to the policy process. There are 2 defining concepts in the objectives: The first is to take a long term view of S&T, R&D The second is to do it in a collaborative manner The second concept is important because of the fragmented role science advice plays in the overall policy process

6 Communities of Purpose Communities of Practice
Purpose & Practice Society and Politics Economics and Finance Communities of Purpose Environment Resource Management Economic Development Health Security This graphic indicates the interwoven communities of purpose and communities of practice. Science and Technology Communities of Practice

7 Communities of Purpose
Alignment along priority areas Often operate as specialty ‘silos’ Use S&T as a specialty skill set Compete for attention and funding May have conflicting priorities: Environment vs. Resource management Economic development vs. Security Short term efficiency vs Long term effectiveness Opportunities may be missed or problems narrowed to comply with mission boundaries Communities of purpose focus on what must be done. They gravitate into clusters in which a common interest and expertise is shared, be that environmental protectionism or security. Communities of purpose may conflict, strategically and tactically/financially.

8 Communities of Practice
Alignment based on horizontal, affiliated disciplines with traditional ways of working together on broad issues Society and Politics Value-based, distributes authority Operates on political, executive level Economics and Finance Money-based, distributes resource Operates at central bureaucratic level Communities of practice are shown horizontally and reflect the way in which issues are resolved and problems solved. They also drive their own definition of what success looks like. The Society and Politics views the world in terms of values, what is socially or politically important. Decisions in this community are made within Cabinet and executive levels of the government. Economics and Finance view the world in fiscal terms. Treasury Board and the central agencies make allocative decisions, lower levels of the bureaucracy execute them. There is a continuous tension between social priorities and financial ones.

9 Science and Technology
Knowledge-based, distributes capability Fragmented, does not act as a true horizontal policy vector Traditions of inter-disciplinarity only now developing Significant innovation potential Efficiency of existing programs Formulation of new policies Avoidance of problems created by a purely commercial research agenda The S&T community of practice is based on knowledge. Outside the policy space it forms an integrated, well structured body of knowledge (at least compared to other bodies of knowledge). Inside policy space it is used on an ‘as required’ basis, usually in the most rudimentary, technical way. Challenge is to build bridges between areas of S&T expertise in order to get a MUCH greater contribution to overall public sector innovation as well as to public policy.

10 A Range of Prospects Sustainability science;
Remote environmental sensing Metabolomics; Technology convergence/genetics DNA-based early warning; Advanced power systems Microbial ecosystems; Remote diagnosis/diseases Personalized medicine; Biotechnology; Human global health/environment Predictive modelling; Security/Info systems, networks Integrated nanotechnology Regenerative medicine Advanced computational systems Climate change from space Sustainable manufacturing Intelligent robotics systems Space for environmental security Biomass energy Changing northern environment Space-enabling technologies Biodiversity/Invasive species Canada’s sea floor Virtual ocean Proteomics/economy, health Space Surveillance and National Security Intelligent Autonomous Systems. Clean hydrocarbons, H2 Sensors/Activators - health Biodiversity info for KBE Security of Info Infrastructure

11 Geostrategics The future horizons and applications of geo-spatial data and related knowledge management technologies for decision support, including pattern recognition software, wireless communications infrastructure futures, and links to major new capacities in surveillance, ecological monitoring and resource management technologies.

12 The Geostrategics ? How will geo-strategic knowledge, technology and prospective applications likely to be available in 2015 reshape our understanding of Canada, its land, sea and air/space resources, and provide new capabilities for national security, and the stewardship and sustainability of Canada’s resources?

13 Biosystemics The convergence of nanotechnology, ecological science, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences, and their prospective impacts on materials science, the management of complex public systems for bio-health, eco and food system integrity and disease mitigation.

14 The Biosystemics ? How can the federal government better understand the complexities and interdependencies of Canada’s food, health and environmental systems, and develop a 10+ year horizon of actionable intelligence for research and policy in these areas, given new knowledge about emergence, behavior of populations, disease ecology, genomics, etc.?

15 BioSystemics Characteristics
Scale Nano-scale observations at low end Data handling and simulation at high end Convergence Unity at the material level Consilience High level models may result in unity at theoretical level Emergence Seeking to understand rules for networks, tipping points, systems structure, chaos and complexity The bio topic arises as a result of expanding S&T knowledge into both small and large scale. At the nano scale, there is unity at the material level (convergence). At the giga scale, there is unity at the theoretical level (Consilience).

16 Science and Scale SCALE Physics Chemistry Biology Giga scale Increased
Exa Peta Tera Giga Mega Kilo Hecto Deca 1 Deci Centi Milli Micro Nano Pico Femto Atto SCALE Physics Chemistry Biology Giga scale Increased Understanding of systems Dynamics & integration Nanoscale Increased ability To observe & Work with matter At atomic level epidemiology Semiconductor photonics genomics bioinformatics ecology biogeneration Genetic engineering This graphic shows how the ‘normal’ sciences, as defined ar the ‘human scale’ overlap each other.

17 Convergence Computers Biotech Bits Genes Neurons Atoms Networks
At eh nano level, the small components can be analyzed using similar concepts and tools. Neurons Atoms Networks Nanotech

18 Consilience Unity of theory and knowledge
Vertical integration using computational models Hybrid technologies Nano-medecine Quantum computing May well include social sciences At the other end of the scale, powerful computing techniques, data-mining, simulation and artificial intelligence enable us to build ‘bottom-up’ models of very complex systems. Nano Bio Info/Cogno

19 GeoStrategics Value System
This is the value chain. In the middle you have the spatial data, images and databases, standards etc. that make up the Geospatial infrastructure. One step out, you will see the various industry players that help make it work, such as Global Positioning Systems, Geographic Information Systems, Remote Sensing players, just to mention a few. The outer circle represents the sectors that GeoStrategic information and knowledge impacts; such as environment, telecom, cities, energy etc.

20 Focus & Scope We approach Geostrategics from a application perspective, as opposed to the technology areas offered in Biosystemics. 6 Topics Identified by the Scoping workshop: Environment & Resources National Security & Emergency Transportation Sustainable Cities and Urban Development Heath Risks and Hazards Ocean and Inland Water Resources Our technical panels explore the future in these 6 areas and some of these areas are linked quite strongly together, such as sustainable cities and the environment. Under national security, we actually reflect on all sectors of of lives in the new security scenario.

21 Convergence Of Sciences & Advanced Technologies
Geoscience Photonics Increased Scientific Understanding & Improved Models Improved Sensors & Advanced Platforms Climatology Nanotechnology Two week weather prediction Land/ biosphere prediction Prediction of air/water quality Prediction of natural hazards Efficient management of resources Enable: Climate/ environmental prediction Atmospheric Science Meteorology Biology Oceanography Robotics Mapping We see under Geostratgics a broad based convergence of many sciences and technologies to provide a solution for a specific problem. Ecology Knowledge Management Lower Launch Costs High bandwidth Communication Systems Advanced IT Systems Systems, Internet Real-Time Systems Renewable Energy Advanced Materials Urban Studies IT = Information Technology

22 Spectrum of Breakthrough GeoStrategic Technologies Needed
Sensors Sensor Web Information Synthesis Access to Knowledge Science & Architectures Sensors Sensorweb Adaptive Data 3D Detectors Management Non - Linear Optics Automated Calibration Tunable Lidar Reconfigurable Advanced microwave Communications Autonomous Operations Micro Lidar Multi - Functional Warm Focal Planes Structures Large Telescopes and Rad - Tolerant Antennas Microelectronics Here are some of the technologies that we are talking about in about years. Biological Markers Information Synthesis Access to Knowledge Space/Ground Programming Env. . Human - Computer Interface for Reconfiguration Management Geo - Spatial Datasets Open Model Architecture Collaborative Environments Parallel Systems Distributed Visualization Geo - spatial DBMS High Bandwidth Delivery Systems Data Mining/Dynamic Data Fusion Standards & Protocols Geo - reference Standards Source: Dr. Bob Ryerson, NRCan

23 DELIVERABLES & REPORTING
Summaries of results for each stage: scoping workshops; technical panels; synthesis, and scenarios. High priority 'robust' + disruptive or transformative technologies. Potential collaborative R&D strategies. Potential new planning and contingency roles or foci for government, industry and academia. Suggestions for action, including; horizontal S&T/R&D mechanisms and partnerships, capacity requirements, best practices, & improvements to project methodology.

24 Nanotechnology Present Future Convergence Consilience Nanotubes
Nano-coatings Liposomes Lapping compounds Future Quantum dots Catalyst SET Self-org manufacture Convergence Microbivores Photonic crystals Molecular switching Sensors Present: Nanotubes – hardness of diamond plus electrical conductivity Nano-coatings – paint on ships; surface of hard drives Liposomes – small structures to deliver therapeutic agents Lapping compounds – precision manufacturing Future: Quantum dots – tracing and sensing biological functions Catalysts – in powder or surface forms SET – single electron transistor, small sensors & amplifiers Self-organizing manufacture. Building of 3-D structures, micro lithography Convergence Microbivores – 100 hungrier than red blood cells Photonic crystals – for computing and networks Molecular switching – tiny mechanical calculators Sensors – detect biological activity non-invasively Consilience: Reproduce natural processes such as DNA encoding/de-coding Enable creation of large computing networks Consilience Reproduction of natural processes (DNA) Enable macro n/w

25 Info-Cogno Technology
Present Moore’s Law Internet Data Mining Simulation Future AI - Smart Controls Autonomic Pervasive Convergence Bio-interface Asynchronous Low energy chip Gigaflop modeling Consilience Singularity – change so rapid it can only be managed by trans-humans

26 Systemics Present Future Convergence Consilience Top-down models
Epidemiology Model results H. Scale dynamics Future Bottom-up Eco-epidemiology Model basic activity Micro-dynamics Convergence Biological models Replication Adaptation Heuristic Consilience Unified world view will require high level of cross-disciplinary education.

27 Geostrategic Future? Future: Present:
Distributed silos Fragmented data collection Fragmented infrastructure, systems Some Interconnections Data focused Lack of real-time coverage, data, systems Difficult data integration Future: Integrated Geo Utility at system level Open system integrated infrastructure Integrated data collection Seamless to users; “get what you want when you want it” Real-time coverage, data and systems Significantly wireless Integrated, inexpensive sensors AI and pattern recognition & pervasive surveillance Sensor webs with bio, physical, chemical and physical measurements Peer to peer calibration and validation real time Smart maps Smart systems Information and decision support focused for customers This is the value chain. In the middle you have the spatial data, images and databases, standards etc. that make up the Geospatial infrastructure. One step out, you will see the various industry players that help make it work, such as Global Positioning Systems, Geographic Information Systems, Remote Sensing players, just to mention a few. The outer circle represents the sectors that GeoStrategic information and knowledge impacts; such as environment, telecom, cities, energy etc.

28 Geostrategics Wild Cards
Technology acceptance (e.g. privacy vs. security) International conflicts, war Terrorist attacks (chemical, biological, radioactive, nuclear, information, internet) Unexpected natural disasters (floods, droughts, hurricanes etc.) Climate change acceleration Satellite, ground station failures Collapse of the economy, financial system Collapse of the United Nations, change in world order Human made disasters and accidents (e.g. Walkerton, genetic accident) Technology breakthroughs or commercialization of unknown military technologies with significant impact Pandemic Interstellar events

29 Range of Enabling Technologies
Nanotechnology Designer materials Increasing information processing power of semiconductors, photonic, DNA, quantum computing High speed, high bandwidth communications Semantic internet Smart systems and agents Autonomic software (self-repair and automatic code generation) Wireless communications, including peer to peer communications and computing Portable fuel cells and new forms of power generation Real-time information systems Robotics, nanorobotics Organic, bio sensors Integrated, inexpensive, smart sensors (nano, bio, chemical, physical, optical) New human-machine interfaces (e.g. direct link to the brain) Virtual reality based visioning and decision-support tools Telepresence Smart vehicle technologies Geopositioning systems Micro, nano satellite constellations Ocean technologies

30 Scenario Approaches Axes of Uncertainty: boundaries of expectation, quadrants of contrast Themes that Colour: technovectors and societal receptions; social diversity Projective Analytics : projecting the present and adding “spice to the space” Wildcards and Inversions: thinking the unthinkable and the reversals S&T Emergent & Determinant: technology as the dominant driver and critical differentiator

31 Scenario Purposes Tracking emergence & prospective impacts of influential trends & technologies Informing R&D planners, policy makers Engaging, coalescing strategic thinking Elucidation of unseen connections, new insights Evaluating & comparing a range of scenarios to assess robustness of technologies Facilitating long term R&D and strategic investments Imagining future knowledge & skills needs, job shifts

32 e.g. 15 Potential Themes GAIA Strikes Back– technology & systems collapses, pervasive barriers Agility Advantage Can : succeeding, adapting, competing, diversifying Co-Evolu-Innova-tion: Gov’t & communities as co-innovators Insecure Cocoon: terrorism unchecked, ever present Virtual Avatar: cyber-reality Genomic Anomic: biotech transformations & upsets Comfortably Numb: big brother takes care through technology Birkenstock Bicycle: toward assured sustainability Cool is Cruel: cultural fixations for technology, & fast shifts O Say Can You C AmeriCanada?: Canada slow merge into the USA Navigation Net: fully enabled wireless net functionality Techno Freak: reversals of socio-technical potential into problems Other Sides: parallel worlds of values & technology co-existing True North Long & Narrow: life on the fringe Invisible Hand: vibrant 21st century marketplaces

33 VII. Implications for Federal Research & Development


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