Presentation on theme: "AAFC CFIA CSA CRC DND EC FOC HC IC NRC NRCan NSERC Science and Technology Foresight Pilot Project : Progress Report on Synthesis of Technical Panels and."— Presentation transcript:
AAFC CFIA CSA CRC DND EC FOC HC IC NRC NRCan NSERC Science and Technology Foresight Pilot Project : Progress Report on Synthesis of Technical Panels and Preliminary Scenarios Development
2 TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT is… Systematic exploration of the longer-term future of science and technology, and their potential impacts on society, with a view to identifying emerging factors driving change, and the areas of scientific research and technological development likely to influence change and yield the greatest economic, environmental and social benefits over the next years.
3 The Disclaimer The ideas, potential developments and prospective events envisioned in this report have been identified by participants as situations that could occur in the future. They do not purport to be predictive. The approach we are taking relies upon consulting a wide range of expertise, with the expectation that through our collective experience, imaginative abilities and interactive knowledge of technological development pathways, we can begin to construct a coherent view of some of the major developments that can be anticipated within a time horizon. This is the nature of foresight - creating a range of plausible future elements that in their diversity should alert readers to the kinds of issues and perspectives they may not have initially considered in longer term research planning and contingency thinking. Accordingly, this report reflects the combined views of the participants, and the best wisdom and creative thinking that we could stimulate with the tools of foresight, but it clearly does not represent an official view of the Government of Canada or any of its Departments and or Agencies.
4 STFP Project Background Pilot project proposed by NRC, endorsed by FINE DMs and ADMs. Pilot project independent of any other S&T funding. Funded by participating agencies. Multi-departmental Working Group identified 2 key technology sectors for study: –GEOSTRATEGICS: including geo-spatial data sensing, gathering, artificial intelligence, pattern analysis and knowledge management. –BIOSYSTEMICS: including nano to global biotechnology, eco and food systems, emergent and convergent trends in health, genomics & disease mitigation and cognitive science. Project Team led by NRC Office of Technology Foresight composed of seconded staff and consultants
5 PROJECT OBJECTIVES Create a futures context & discussion framework for the development of policies, agendas & investment strategies for S&T and R&D. Initiate a network to create discussion and emerging consensus on where and how to collaborate among departments, agencies & other stakeholders. Strengthen & focus networks of collaboration among Canadian & international experts in advanced 'geo' and 'bio' S&T. Design and test a collaborative learning methodology and process for the inclusion of S&T input to the policy process.
6 Science and Technology Society and Politics Economics and Finance Purpose & Practice EnvironmentResource ManagementEconomic DevelopmentHealthSecurity Communities of Purpose Communities of Practice
7 Communities of Purpose Alignment along priority areas Often operate as specialty silos Use S&T as a specialty skill set Compete for attention and funding May have conflicting priorities: –Environment vs. Resource management –Economic development vs. Security –Short term efficiency vs Long term effectiveness –Opportunities may be missed or problems narrowed to comply with mission boundaries
8 Communities of Practice Alignment based on horizontal, affiliated disciplines with traditional ways of working together on broad issues Society and Politics –Value-based, distributes authority –Operates on political, executive level Economics and Finance –Money-based, distributes resource –Operates at central bureaucratic level
9 Science and Technology Knowledge-based, distributes capability Fragmented, does not act as a true horizontal policy vector Traditions of inter-disciplinarity only now developing Significant innovation potential –Efficiency of existing programs –Formulation of new policies –Avoidance of problems created by a purely commercial research agenda
10 A Range of Prospects Sustainability science; Remote environmental sensing Metabolomics; Technology convergence/genetics DNA-based early warning; Advanced power systems Microbial ecosystems; Remote diagnosis/diseases Personalized medicine; Biotechnology; Human global health/environment Predictive modelling; Security/Info systems, networks Integrated nanotechnology Regenerative medicine Advanced computational systems Climate change from space Sustainable manufacturing Intelligent robotics systems Space for environmental security Biomass energy Changing northern environment Space-enabling technologies Biodiversity/Invasive species Canadas sea floor Virtual ocean Proteomics/economy, health Space Surveillance and National Security Intelligent Autonomous Systems. Clean hydrocarbons, H 2 Sensors/Activators - health Biodiversity info for KBE Security of Info Infrastructure
11 Geostrategics The future horizons and applications of geo-spatial data and related knowledge management technologies for decision support, including pattern recognition software, wireless communications infrastructure futures, and links to major new capacities in surveillance, ecological monitoring and resource management technologies.
12 The Geostrategics ? How will geo-strategic knowledge, technology and prospective applications likely to be available in 2015 reshape our understanding of Canada, its land, sea and air/space resources, and provide new capabilities for national security, and the stewardship and sustainability of Canadas resources?
13 Biosystemics The convergence of nanotechnology, ecological science, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences, and their prospective impacts on materials science, the management of complex public systems for bio-health, eco and food system integrity and disease mitigation.
14 The Biosystemics ? How can the federal government better understand the complexities and interdependencies of Canadas food, health and environmental systems, and develop a 10+ year horizon of actionable intelligence for research and policy in these areas, given new knowledge about emergence, behavior of populations, disease ecology, genomics, etc.?
15 BioSystemics Characteristics Scale –Nano-scale observations at low end –Data handling and simulation at high end Convergence –Unity at the material level Consilience –High level models may result in unity at theoretical level Emergence –Seeking to understand rules for networks, tipping points, systems structure, chaos and complexity
16 Science and Scale Exa Peta Tera Giga Mega Kilo Hecto Deca 1 Deci Centi Milli Micro Nano Pico Femto Atto SCALE PhysicsChemistryBiology Giga scale Increased Understanding of systems Dynamics & integration Nanoscale Increased ability To observe & Work with matter At atomic level epidemiology Semiconductor photonics genomics bioinformatics ecology biogeneration Genetic engineering
18 Consilience Unity of theory and knowledge Vertical integration using computational models Hybrid technologies –Nano-medecine –Quantum computing May well include social sciences Nano Bio Info/Cogno
19 GeoStrategics Value System
20 Focus & Scope We approach Geostrategics from a application perspective, as opposed to the technology areas offered in Biosystemics. 6 Topics Identified by the Scoping workshop: 1.Environment & Resources 2.National Security & Emergency 3.Transportation 4.Sustainable Cities and Urban Development 5.Heath Risks and Hazards 6.Ocean and Inland Water Resources
21 Convergence Of Sciences & Advanced Technologies Two week weather prediction Land/ biosphere prediction Prediction of air/water quality Prediction of natural hazards Efficient management of resources Enable: Climate/ environmental prediction Advanced IT Systems Advanced IT Systems Systems, Internet Real-Time Systems Lower Launch Costs High bandwidth Communication Systems Improved Sensors & Advanced Platforms Improved Sensors & Advanced Platforms Improved Sensors & Advanced Platforms Increased Scientific Understanding & Improved Models Increased Scientific Understanding & Improved Models IT = Information Technology Geoscience Atmospheric Science Nanotechnology Meteorology Oceanography Ecology Biology Photonics Climatology MappingRobotics Renewable Energy Knowledge Management Urban Studies Advanced Materials
22 Spectrum of Breakthrough GeoStrategic Technologies Needed Sensors 3D Detectors Non-Linear Optics TunableLidar Advanced microwave MicroLidar Warm Focal Planes Large Telescopes and Antennas Biological Markers Sensorweb Adaptive Data Management Automated Calibration Reconfigurable Communications Autonomous Operations Multi-Functional Structures Rad-Tolerant Microelectronics Access to Knowledge Human-Computer Interface for Geo-Spatial Datasets Collaborative Environments Distributed Visualization High Bandwidth Delivery Systems Data Mining/Dynamic Data Fusion Geo-reference Standards Information Synthesis Space/Ground Programming Env.. Reconfiguration Management Open Model Architecture Parallel Systems Geo-spatial DBMS Standards & Protocols Sensors Sensor Web Information Synthesis Access to Knowledge Science & Architectures Source: Dr. Bob Ryerson, NRCan
23 DELIVERABLES & REPORTING Summaries of results for each stage: scoping workshops; technical panels; synthesis, and scenarios. High priority 'robust' + disruptive or transformative technologies. Potential collaborative R&D strategies. Potential new planning and contingency roles or foci for government, industry and academia. Suggestions for action, including; horizontal S&T/R&D mechanisms and partnerships, capacity requirements, best practices, & improvements to project methodology.
25 Info-Cogno Technology Present Moores Law Internet Data Mining Simulation Convergence Bio-interface Asynchronous Low energy chip Gigaflop modeling Future AI - Smart Controls Autonomic Pervasive Consilience Singularity – change so rapid it can only be managed by trans- humans
26 Systemics Present Top-down models Epidemiology Model results H. Scale dynamics Convergence Biological models Replication Adaptation Heuristic Future Bottom-up Eco-epidemiology Model basic activity Micro-dynamics Consilience Unified world view will require high level of cross-disciplinary education.
27 Geostrategic Future? Present: Distributed silos Fragmented data collection Fragmented infrastructure, systems Some Interconnections Data focused Lack of real-time coverage, data, systems Difficult data integration Future: Integrated Geo Utility at system level Open system integrated infrastructure Integrated data collection Seamless to users; get what you want when you want it Real-time coverage, data and systems Significantly wireless Integrated, inexpensive sensors AI and pattern recognition & pervasive surveillance Sensor webs with bio, physical, chemical and physical measurements Peer to peer calibration and validation real time Smart maps Smart systems Information and decision support focused for customers
28 Geostrategics Wild Cards Technology acceptance (e.g. privacy vs. security) International conflicts, war Terrorist attacks (chemical, biological, radioactive, nuclear, information, internet) Unexpected natural disasters (floods, droughts, hurricanes etc.) Climate change acceleration Satellite, ground station failures Collapse of the economy, financial system Collapse of the United Nations, change in world order Human made disasters and accidents (e.g. Walkerton, genetic accident) Technology breakthroughs or commercialization of unknown military technologies with significant impact Pandemic Interstellar events
29 Range of Enabling Technologies Nanotechnology Designer materials Increasing information processing power of semiconductors, photonic, DNA, quantum computing High speed, high bandwidth communications Semantic internet Smart systems and agents Autonomic software (self-repair and automatic code generation) Wireless communications, including peer to peer communications and computing Portable fuel cells and new forms of power generation Real-time information systems Robotics, nanorobotics Organic, bio sensors Integrated, inexpensive, smart sensors (nano, bio, chemical, physical, optical) New human-machine interfaces (e.g. direct link to the brain) Virtual reality based visioning and decision-support tools Telepresence Smart vehicle technologies Geopositioning systems Micro, nano satellite constellations Ocean technologies
30 Scenario Approaches Axes of Uncertainty: boundaries of expectation, quadrants of contrast Themes that Colour: technovectors and societal receptions; social diversity Projective Analytics : projecting the present and adding spice to the space Wildcards and Inversions: thinking the unthinkable and the reversals S&T Emergent & Determinant: technology as the dominant driver and critical differentiator
31 Scenario Purposes Tracking emergence & prospective impacts of influential trends & technologies Informing R&D planners, policy makers Engaging, coalescing strategic thinking Elucidation of unseen connections, new insights Evaluating & comparing a range of scenarios to assess robustness of technologies Facilitating long term R&D and strategic investments Imagining future knowledge & skills needs, job shifts
32 e.g. 15 Potential Themes GAIA Strikes Back– technology & systems collapses, pervasive barriers Agility Advantage Can : succeeding, adapting, competing, diversifying Co-Evolu-Innova-tion: Govt & communities as co-innovators Insecure Cocoon: terrorism unchecked, ever present Virtual Avatar: cyber-reality Genomic Anomic: biotech transformations & upsets Comfortably Numb: big brother takes care through technology Birkenstock Bicycle: toward assured sustainability Cool is Cruel: cultural fixations for technology, & fast shifts O Say Can You C AmeriCanada?: Canada slow merge into the USA Navigation Net: fully enabled wireless net functionality Techno Freak: reversals of socio- technical potential into problems Other Sides: parallel worlds of values & technology co-existing True North Long & Narrow: life on the fringe Invisible Hand: vibrant 21 st century marketplaces
33 VII. Implications for Federal Research & Development