1. Load Forecast and Basecase Development

2. 2 Balancing Authority Area Load Forecast - w/DSM Peak MWAnnual Energy WinterSummeravg MW Actual 00-0115362000149020001107 01-0213162001137020011017 02-0314042002146720021034 03-0415472003153320031064 04-0515662004150220041140 05-0616142005158020051211 06-0716072006164420061165 07-0816542007172420071186 08-0918052008167820081222 09-1017662009168520091216 10-1117042010161020101201 Forecast 11-1216202011166720111201 12-1316272012159620121211 13-1416342013160520131222 14-1516422014161420141232 15-1616492015162320151243 16-1716572016163320161254 17-1816652017164220171264 18-1916732018165120181275 19-2016812019166120191286 20-2116892020167020201297 21-2216982021168020211309 22-2317132022169020221321 23-2417332023170320231332 24-2517542024172020241344 25-2617762025173820251356 2026175620261369 BAAGR0.7% 0.9% Per Yr11.1 11.5 11.2

3. Load Forecast and Basecase Development 3

4. 4

5. 5

6. 6 Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program Substation Transformer Loading (STL) Program » Data repository » Monthly actual peaks/energy » Load projections » Growth rates

7. 7 Load Forecast and Basecase Development Populating the database Populating the database » STL » Non-coincident values Forecast data Forecast data Fitting the load Fitting the load » Conforming vs. Non-conforming » Scrunch factor

8. Load Forecast and Basecase Development Load level assumptions Load level assumptions » Historical 1-in-2(2012 = 1467 MW) 1-in-2(2012 = 1467 MW) » Proposed 1-in-10(2012 = 1499 MW) 1-in-10(2012 = 1499 MW) » Scenarios: 1-in-20(2012 = 1507 MW) 1-in-20(2012 = 1507 MW) 1-in-50(2012 = 1517 MW) 1-in-50(2012 = 1517 MW) 8