Presentation on theme: "Bioenergy : managing risks and opportunities"— Presentation transcript:
1Bioenergy : managing risks and opportunities opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and provide development benefits (e.g. access to energy; rural development)risk of the world winding up in a zero sum game where one environmental or social problem substitutes for another; largely due to potential competition for increasingly scarce resources, including land and water with impacts on climate change, biodiversity, long-term food security, land rights, etc.a highly complex issue where choices in terms of location, pathways, business models and end uses matterdelivering on the promise requires careful planning and management, based on solid science, both on the national and project levels
2too much of a good thing? Trends and drivers Life cycle wide environmental impacts of biofuelsLand use change and implicationsOptions for more efficient and sustainable resource useStrategies and measures to enhance resource productivity
3Bioenergy potential has to be assessed in light of global trends: population growth, nutrition, yieldsGlobal population is expected to grow by 36% between 2000 and 2030 (medium projection of UN/FAO).Average crop yields are expected to increase at about the same rate. However, relative yield increases have in general weakend (estimates for global yields in the next decade predict % p.a. growth for cereals).Meat consumption is expected to increase by 22% per capita between , which requires more cropland for feed.Effects of climate change will put further pressure on yield improvements and availability of arable land.Feeding the world population will require the expansion of global cropland. Additional demand for non-food biomass will add on top of this.Development of global population,agriculture land and consumptionper person in the past ( )Between 2000 and 2030 the global population is expected to grow by 36% (medium projection of UN/FAO). Average crop yields are expected to increase at about the same rate.Between meat consumption is expected to increase by ca. 22% per capita, changing the availability and use of cropland. Average crop yields may not compensate for this increasing demand of animal based food.Feeding the world population will require the expansion of global cropland. Additional demand for non-food biomass will add on top of this.Relative yield increases have in general weakend. Estimates for global yields in the next decade predict that increases for cereals are low with 1-1.1% p.a. growth.It is expected that effects of climate change on agriculture is putting further pressure on yield improvements and arable land.Sources: UN population statistics online; FAOSTAT online3
4Biofuels may make a difference – life cycle wide GHG emissions vary Life-cycle assessments (LCA) of biofuels show a wide range of net GHG balances compared to traditional fuels, depending on feedstock, conversion technology, and methodological assumptions.Highest GHG savings are for sugar cane (70 to +100%), biogas from manure, and ethanol from residues.Lowest savings, and sometimes even higher GHG emissions than fossil fuels occur when production takes place on converted natural land.Greenhouse gas savings of biofuels compared to fossil fuels4
5Water - a potentially limiting factor Already water is a scarce resource in many places.Agriculture is already the biggest user of freshwater resources; expanding and intensifying bioenergy production could add to existing pressures.As the integrity of water systems declines, they are less able to provide fundamental ecosystem services such as the provision of clean water, natural filtration services, natural habitat for fisheries etc.Global challenges such as climate change, population growth, change in living standards and energy demand will further impact the world’s water supplies.5
6… there can also be benefits generate investment in efficient water infrastructurecertain feedstocks can help regulate local water cycles and groundwater replenishment levels, especially in arid and semi-arid environmentsbioenergy can help run water pumps and equipment to clean water… and mitigation optionsmatching feedstocks with geo-climatic conditions; consider and research feedstocks that require less water; Integrated Water Resource Managementefficiency in water use in cultivation and conversion, e.g rainwater harvesting, drip irrigation, reclaimed water use, closed systemslimiting fertilizer and pesticide inputs, e.g. nitrogen fixing crops in multi- cropping systems; precision agriculture to limit overall agrochemical use
7Variation in blue water footprint for selected energy crops
8Land - a potentially limiting factor Conservative estimates of projected land use for biofuel crops vary between Mha for 2020.Estimates of long-term potential land requirements for biofuels vary widely and depend on the basic assumptions made - mainly type of feedstock, geographical location and level of input and yield increase.Ravindranath et al (2009) estimated that Mha would be required in 2030 to provide 10% of transport fuel demand with 1st gen biofuels. For comparison, total cropland is about 1,500 ha.Land use change has a range of potential implications, including on GHG balance and biodiversity.The drive to meet the demand for palm oil is resulting in conversion of forested areas into palm oil plantations.These satellite images reveal how a combination of transmigration, logging interests, and palm oil plantation development have transformed an area that was previously tropical lowland rain and swamp forest.In particular habitat loss through land use change might have a large impact on biological diversity.Invasive species as feedstocks, and nutrient pollution through intensive agriculture may further impact on biological diversity.Benefits from mitigated climate change can not compensate losses by habitat conversion for decades.However, utilizing recently abandoned and degraded land could lead to beneficial effects for biodiversity.Source:UNEP Atlas One Planet - Many People8
9Energy TrendsBiofuels provide about 3% of global road transport fuels. In 2011, biodiesel expanded and ethanol production was stable or down slightly compared with in 2010, for the first time in a decade.Gaseous biofuels’ and wood pellets’ quantities are limited but growing; the latter production doubling since 2008.Biofuel mandates open a 220 billion litre market by Ren21 GSR 2012Energy market development.Biofuels - not only for transport!Bioenergy is used in many parts of the world already – but mainly in form of traditional biomass for heating and cooking.This practice comes with impacts on health – indoor air pollution – and deforestation, amongst others.We need to ensure that the 1.4 billion energy poor who are dependent on this practice can move to access to modern energy services. Biofuels can be a stepping stone.Biofuels - only hand in hand with energy efficiency and demand management!WWF Study.2011 record investment in RE.Biofuels – drop in asset finance due to uncertainty over feedstock supplies.R&D for RE on the rise – mostly for solar, followed by advanced biofuels.Global production of fuel ethanol was stable or downslightly in 2011, for the first time since 2000, to anestimated 86.1 billion litres.Biodiesel continued to rise globally.Harvests:2010/11 – Brazil2011/12 – USVulnerability!Policies:Biofuels obligations and mandates in at least 46 countries at national level, and 26 states and provinces.Increasing attention to sustainability standards.Biomass power was the third largest sector for totalrenewable energy investment in 2011, even though itsshare fell 12% to USD 10.6 billion. Asset finance declined. Venture capital, private equity and R&D increased. Ren21 GSR 201Thanks to new technologies by 2050, 32 exajoules of biofuels will be used globally, providing 27% of world transport fuel. IEA Biofuel Roadmap
10FOOD AND AGRICULTURE Price volatility Yield developments Loss of cropland areaDemand increases and changing dietsCompetition with Food Security has been hotly debated.Very complex issue.Two highlights:Yield developments.There is more than availability – accessibility!Food price is a complex issue. Fungibility can help balance.Competition for land – calling for efficiency and combined food-energy systems:Climate changeSources: UN population statistics online; FAOSTAT onlineAccess to marketsDevelopment of global population, agriculture landand consumption , per person ( )Food Waste
11for more efficient and sustainable resource use Optionsfor more efficient and sustainable resource useImproving the production of biomass :Increasing yields and optimizing agricultural productionRestoring formerly degraded landMore efficient use of biomass:Use of waste and production residuesCascading use of biomassStationary use of bioenergyConsidering different pathways:Mineral based solar energy systems11
12project levelapplying sustainability principles, criteria and indicators in: planning, design and implementation (producers) / project appraisal (financiers/investors) /licensing (governments)certification schemesscreening tools / safeguards / scorecardlicensing processesindustry and finance sector interest: good business planning and risk management; enhance reputation; ensuring market access or a competitive edgegovernment interest: management of resourcescertifications faces some limitations / challenges:direct vs. indirect impactsproliferation of schemes (crop-based–biofuels; national–international), and it has already been pointed out that synergies amongst them would be helpful to increase certainty and cost-effectiveness (recent workshops by IDB and UNEP and by IUCN, Packard and Shell)An estimated 67 sustainability certification schemes operational / being developed.Scope - feedstock specific, biofuels, bioenergy, ag and forestryDepth – EU RED compliant to comprehensive schemes following ISEAL guidance, and covering all three pillars of sustainability.The higher the standard, usually the higher the cost of compliance, but the higher also the gains – standards are also a management tool that reduces environmental and social as well as reputational risk.Need for convergence and cooperation between schemes.Standards alone do not solve all the issues – national policy and planning needs to go hand in hand.
13national level process for bioenergy policy context analysisWHY - orwhy not - bioenergyassessment, mapping,scenariosWHERE,WHAT, HOWAssessing andmatching domesticpre-conditions and needs in terms of:energy status quo & needsenergy sourcesDefining baselineand potentialsland suitability/competitiontechnology and crop optionsimplementation optionsmitigation optionsstakeholderengagementWHOrisks / trade offsDesigning policy & strategy based on science:defined policy objectives and trade offsmitigation optionsalternatives tobioenergyBiofuel blending mandates in 46 countries and 26 states/ provinces.Subsidies and tax exemptions used to promote biofuels.Bioenergy emerging as part of low carbon development and Green Economy strategies.Recognition of the need for sustainability standards.Assessing investment projectsto make decisions on whether to support themensure thatinvestment projectsfit with the visiondesigninformed policiesand strategies
14Where? Land use. Land use change. Land use planning. conduct a land suitability assessmentidentify and map areas of special sensitivity, i.e. ‘high risk areas’ in terms of potential damage to vital ecosystem functionsidentify and map existing agricultural production areasoverlay infrastructure information to evaluate market accessibility and the economic feasibility of feedstock productionconduct ‘ground-truthing’ in areas with potential for feedstock production, involving local communities and other relevant stakeholders
15www.bioenergydecisiontool.org a web-based tool and living document developed by FAO and UNEPunder the framework of UN Energyto assist countries to manage risks and challenges,in a process anchored in each country’s specific context:step-wise guidance for strategy formulation and investment decision-making processesrepository of technical resources andlinks to existing tools, guidelines and resourcesguidance on identification and inclusion of stakeholders in the bioenergy decision-making process and on adopting transparent processes for good governance
1624 sustainability indicators Global Bioenergy Partnership24 sustainability indicatorseconomic &energy securityenvironmentalsociallifecycle GHG emissionssoil qualityharvest levels of wood resourcesemissions of non-GHG pollutantswater use and efficiencywater qualitybiological diversity in the landscapeland use and land-use change related to bioenergy feedstock productionallocation and tenure of land for new bioenergy productionprice and supply of a national food basketchange in incomejobs in the bioenergy sectorchange in unpaid time spent by women and children collecting biomassbioenergy to expand access to modern energy serviceschange in mortality and burden of disease attributable to indoor smokeincidence of occupational injury, illness and fatalitiesproductivitynet energy balancegross value addedchange in consumption of fossil fuels and traditional energy use of biomasstraining and re-qualification of the workforceenergy diversityinfrastructure and logistics for distribution of bioenergycapacity and flexibility of use of bioenergyIn the July 2005 Gleneagles Plan of Action, the G8 +5 agreed to"... promote the continued development and commercialisation of renewable energy by: [...] d) launching a Global Bioenergy Partnership to support wider, cost effective, biomass and biofuels deployment, particularly in developing countries where biomass use is prevalent".
17Public perception / outlook Emergence of a more balanced approach to risks and opportunities. Yet, uncertainty in the investor community.Recognition of co-existence of two markets: local use and globally traded commodity.Emergence of integrated systems approach to optimise provisioning services of ecosystems, particularly land and water resources, for food, feed, fuel and fibre.Mandates / targets need to be set based on science and sustainably feasible potentials. They need to be flanked by solid sustainability standards on the project level, and embedded in broader low carbon development strategies.Bioenergy policy planning tools and processes are available and increasingly applied.
18UNEP’s approach to bioenergy Bioenergy is neither good nor bad per se;to avoid unintended consequences in the short and long-term, bioenergy development requires solid planning and management,both on the national policy and strategy and the project levels.Scientific assessments:Tools:International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management: Assessing Biofuels report (2009)The Bioenergy and Water Nexus, UNEP, IEA Bioenergy Task 43, Oeko Institut (2011)Issue Paper series on emerging issues: Land use and land use change ; Bioenergy and Water; Invasive species; Stakeholder consultation; Group Certification; Facilitating Energy Access; REDD+Assessments & Guidelines for Sustainable Liquid Biofuel Production in Developing Countries, funded by GEF, implemented with FAO and UNIDO, providing guidance on environmental, social and economic performance of biofuel projects.Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP):Methodological framework for GHG calculationsSustainability criteria & indicatorsRoundtable on Sustainable Biofuels (RSB):solid multi-stakeholder processall major issues are coveredUN Energy Decision Support Tool for Sustainable Bioenergy (DST), developed by UNEP and FAO to provide stepwise guidance to decision makers in governments to develop sustainable bioenergy policies and strategies, and to assess investment proposals.Finance:Regional and national support:CASCADe: enhancing African expertise to generate carbon credits in the forestry and bioenergy sectors by providing technical assistance, institutional support and training workshops.Jatropha-based PoA: assessing the feasibility of a CDM Programme of Activities for rural energy generation from Jatropha oil in Mali.African Rural Energy Enterprise Development promoting rural energy enterprises, includes a bioenergy component that allows to demonstrate additional environmental and social benefits resulting from ‘local production for local use’ projects.performance of biofuel projects, using a settings approach.Bioenergy Policy Support Facility, providing advisory services to governments developing and implementing bioenergy policies, strategies and measures, mobilizing local and international experts: targeted consultations; science-based information for decision making; advice on legal frameworks, planning and management tools; and guidance on processes to facilitate integrated decision-making.Mapping of land suitable and available for bioenergy development:Methodology refined (GIS and groundtruthing)completed in Kenya, Uganda, Senegal
19Martina OttoHead of Policy Unit, Energy BranchCoordinator Bioenergy