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School of Earth and Environment FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT 1 School of Earth and Environment FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Technical Briefing to AWG-KP on including.

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Presentation on theme: "School of Earth and Environment FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT 1 School of Earth and Environment FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Technical Briefing to AWG-KP on including."— Presentation transcript:

1 School of Earth and Environment FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT 1 School of Earth and Environment FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Technical Briefing to AWG-KP on including others gases Tuesday 2 June 2009, UNFCC Bonn Professor Piers Forster, University of Leeds, UK

2 2 June 2009, BonnProf Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP Slide 2 Talk covers GWPs used in the Kyoto Protocol Updates to Kyoto Protocol GWPs GWPs of non-Kyoto Protocol gases GWPs for indirect/short-lived effects Atmospheric measurements Emission inventories

3 2 June 2009, BonnProf Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP Slide 3 100 year GWPs used in Kyoto protocol and updates GasKP (SAR)AR4Changes since SAR CO211Absolute GWP CO2 reduced -> all non CO2 GWPs increased by 27% unless science improved CH42125indirect effects, radiative efficiency N2O310298Iife-time and radiative efficiency HFCs (e.g. HFC134a)1,3001,430radiative efficiency PFCs (e.g. PFC-14)6,5007,390radiative efficiency SF623,90022,800life-time, radiative efficiency Revised Table 2.14 Errata,1 Dec 2008, from IPCC WG1 AR4, Chapter 2, Forster et al., 2007 ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Errata_2008-12-01.pdf

4 2 June 2009, BonnProf Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP Slide 4 GWPs quantified in AR4 that were not in Kyoto Protocol or SAR Table 20 Ozone Depleting Substances - covered by Montréal protocol 6 additional HFCs (152, 161, 227ea, 236cb, 236ea, 245fa,365mfc) 1 PFC (PFC-9-1-18): uncertain lifetime, medical applications, minor? 7 other compounds with short lifetimes (e.g. Halon-1201, Chloroform, DME) 3 Perfluorinated compounds NF3 - electronics industry, see next page SF5CF3 likely related to SF6 emissions, very powerful GHG, long lived c-C3F6, ozone depleting substance replacement 31 Fluorinated ethers: solvents, potential refrigerants, currently expensive 1 Perfluoropolyether (PFPMIE): heat transfer fluid

5 2 June 2009, BonnProf Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP Slide 5 Progress since AR4 Sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2) A fumigant GWP uncertain but may be large Dillon, T., A. Horowitz & J. Crowley, The atmospheric chemistry of sulfuryl fluoride, SO2F2, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1547-1557, 2008 Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), technology industry, flat panel TVs Study finds a reduced lifetime for NF3 of 550 years which would lead to a smaller 100 yr GWP (16,800 rather than 17,200) Emission confirmed by atmospheric measurements to be 620 tons or 16% of production (industry estimate was 2%) Weiss, R. F., J. Mühle, P. K. Salameh, and C. M. Harth (2008), Nitrogen trifluoride in the global atmosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20821, doi:10.1029/2008GL035913. Prather, M. J., and J. Hsu (2008), NF3, the greenhouse gas missing from Kyoto, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12810, doi:10.1029/2008GL034542.

6 2 June 2009, BonnProf Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP Slide 6 Indirect/Short-lived GWPs AR4 quantified indirect GWPs for methane, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, non- methane volatile organic compounds, hydrogen – only methane indirect effects included in main GWP table Generally 100 year GWPs are less than 10, except for maybe nitrogen oxides from aircraft GWPs for short-lived species vary with location and timing of emissions: any metric would be uncertain GWPs not quantified in AR4 for emissions affecting non GHGs (e.g. aerosols, condensation trails from aircraft)

7 2 June 2009, BonnProf Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP Slide 7 Emission estimates Emissions evaluated using a combination of techniques Complexity/methodology varies with country/sector Crudest methods rely on scaling economic indicators Right: atmospheric measurements of year to year changes (100-yr GWP used to infer GtC units) Figure 2.7, IPCC WG1 chapter 2, Forster et al, 2007

8 2 June 2009, BonnProf Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP Slide 8 Summary GWP for many non-KP gases are included in AR4 table - see Errata for complete table Many of these gases not necessarily expected to be important for climate change but some may become important (e.g. NF3) Changes in GWPs since SAR largely related to reduced radiative efficiency of CO2 GWPs well established for major species but uncertainties can be large for minor species Uncertainties and methodological considerations with use of GWPs for short-lived and indirect climate change drivers


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