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Introduction Economics is about both flows and prices – Flow models convey balance and unbalance through time – Price models convey unbalance converging.

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Presentation on theme: "Introduction Economics is about both flows and prices – Flow models convey balance and unbalance through time – Price models convey unbalance converging."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Introduction Economics is about both flows and prices – Flow models convey balance and unbalance through time – Price models convey unbalance converging into balance in time Circular flow models are under-done in both education and analysis – Initial inspiration goes back to William Harvey (and others) who demonstrated the circular flow of blood from the body's centre to its sectors (nodes), and its return Harvey analogy dates to Thomas Hobbes (1650s) Harvey analogy dates to Thomas Hobbes (1650s) – "Hydraulic Keynesianism" has become a pejorative term (Laidler)[ref. AWH Phillips]

3 Global Economy in 'Normal' State Abstract "normal" Abstract "normal" (a kind of template) – just as perfect competition is an abstract 'normal' real-world phenomena can only approximate 'normal' real-world phenomena can only approximate 'normal' Three Sectors – Saving Class ( S ); analogous to the head S capitalist and other 'middle-class' households capitalist and other 'middle-class' households includes business 'companies' and financial system includes business 'companies' and financial system – Low Income Class ( L ); analogous to left-hand, labour – Governments ( G ); analogous to right-hand Production Centre (P) – analogous to heart, lungs, stomach

4 'Normal' State 'Normal' State (continued) Sectors run balanced budgets – saving is confined to S, balanced by investing within S Factors of production are owned by S, L, G; reside in P – materials (oxygen, food, water) combine with all available factor inputs to produce goods and services ('nutrients') – nutrients are conveyed via the monetary arteries to the consuming sectors; information conveyed with return flow money [currency] is the circulating medium money [currency] is the circulating medium nutrients represent output (outflow) and income nutrients represent output (outflow) and income 'economic cake' divided into three sectoral portions 'economic cake' divided into three sectoral portions – the division of income is based on market and government rules

5 Figure 3

6 Circular Flow in 'Normal' state L and C consume their incomes nutrients L and C consume their incomes (nutrients) – G demands collective consumer and investment goods – L demands wage goods – S demands wage and non-wage consumer goods ; plus, through their companies, investment goods investment equals saving through interest rate investment equals saving through interest rate income-maximising sector income-maximising sector Textbook 2-sector circular flow – contained within S (Figure 4)Figure 4 – most saving goes to other households (Life-Cycle) – remaining income (nutrients) is Capital capital is invested: company purchases (equity / debt) capital is invested: company purchases (equity / debt)

7 Imbalance ; departure from 'normal' state if S cannot fully allocate its capital, internally – private sector surpluses may be endemic (Figure 2)Figure 2 especially but not only when paying down debt – unemployment results from unallocated capital S may allocate its capital externally – inter-sectoral intertemporal exchange (inter-nodal arteries)inter-nodal arteries S markets unallocated nutrients (capital) to L, as debt S markets unallocated nutrients (capital) to L, as debt L contracts to send nutrients to S in the future L contracts to send nutrients to S in the future enables L to maintain/grow purchases of wage goods enables L to maintain/grow purchases of wage goods – wage goods are central to industrial capitalism – if S-L intertemporal 'return journey' falters [eg sub-prime] S sends unallocated capital to G; accommodating G-deficits S sends unallocated capital to G; accommodating G-deficits

8 Figure 5 ++ ––

9 Inter-sectoral Mercantilism ? Mercantilism: pursuit of indefinite surpluses – consider S=Switzerland; G=Greece; L=LithuaniaSwitzerland – S builds up credits indefinitely; L, G enjoy 'free' nutrients When nutrients flow from S, as debt – S accumulates claims on L and/or G financial wealth including non-circulating money financial wealth including non-circulating money – such claims are widely understood as wealth – postulate that S is a wealth-maximising sector (in this sense of 'wealth') as well as income-maximising – S is uninterested in consuming return nutrients from L,G – S actors need to ensure their "investments" not defaulted

10 Conclusion If S is wealth-maximising in this mercantilist sense – financial and economic crisis becomes chronic Solutions ? – negative real interest rates; (need not require inflation?) – system of government bankruptcy; debt forgiveness – philanthropy (more than charity) – changing the income distribution rules public equity approach public equity approach public equity benefits payable to L and S equally public equity benefits payable to L and S equally – use average L incomes as measure of systemic success a successful economy raises living standards; not unsustainable accumulation of financial credits a successful economy raises living standards; not unsustainable accumulation of financial credits

11 End

12 Figure 5 ++ ––

13 Figure 4

14 Figure 1: Google NGram use in books of expressions: – "saving class" (blue) – "saving classes" (red)

15 Figure 2 UK & France

16 UK Balances

17 UK Corporate Balances From "Splashing Out" The Economist 19 May 2011

18 France Balances Japan

19 Japan Balances

20 Switzerland Balances


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