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FORWARD STUDIES UNIT to the Latvian Union of Scientists June 2003 KS Information Seri es I: Foresight for an Enlarged Europe.

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Presentation on theme: "FORWARD STUDIES UNIT to the Latvian Union of Scientists June 2003 KS Information Seri es I: Foresight for an Enlarged Europe."— Presentation transcript:


2 FORWARD STUDIES UNIT to the Latvian Union of Scientists June 2003 KS Information Seri es I: Foresight for an Enlarged Europe

3 Rethinking and Foresighting Knowledge and Society Presentation by Dr. Arturs Puga, Head of Un it

4 The societal value of Foresight is both in the process and the products generated. Science Governance Society Governance Society Science Society Science Governance

5 FORWARD STUDIES UNIT to the Latvian Union of Scientists System in the making: researchers and practitioners, partners involved in future studies and foresight. Founded in February 2003, Riga

6 FORWARD STUDIES UNIT to the Latvian Union of Scientists Functions are related to activities at organizational, national and European levels aimed at: creating of learning space coordination of foresight activities information production monitoring dissemination

7 Address: Akademijas laukums 1- 611a, Riga, LV-1524, Latvia Address: Akademijas laukums 1- 611a, Riga, LV-1524, Latvia Latvian Union of Scientists (LUS) Dr.hab. Janis Strauchmanis, Chairman Tel (371) 9486283 Dr.Arturs Puga, Head of Forward Studies Unit Tel / fax (371) 7589623,


9 THE FORESIGHT DIMENSION OF THE EUROPEAN RESEARCH AREA During the past Community Framework Programmes, many collaborative actions have been initiated at European level, but now is the time to bring our endeavours together, and to build a space for research and innovation equivalent of the common market for goods and services....our policy proposal for the European Research Area, when we made it early 2000, had itself some of the key features of an exercise in foresight; Mr. Philippe Busquin, European Commissioner for Research. 'The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities''The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities'

10 Foresighting Europe, Issue 1, March 2003 Newsletter of he Science and Technology Foresight Unit, Directorate K, DG Research, European Commission there are specific European policies (the Lisbon Strategy, the development of the ERA, the reform of European Governance) that call for a greater and more co-ordinated attention to Foresight thinking


12 Foresight contributes positively to strategic intelligence: Aimed at producing orientations rather than predictions.It provides scenarios to decision makers thus opening their readiness for change; Includes multiple perspectives, multiple actors and multiple disciplines; Focused on opportunities and risks alike; Emphasizes the interrelations between the technological, economic, social and cultural sectors of society.

13 Why Foresight ? Due to accelerated social and technological change, a new culture of future-oriented thinking in society is needed. Decision makers need to acquire new skills in the face of declining role of traditional value systems and the erosion of traditional interest groups combined with calls for more accountability and accelareted technological change.

14 Thinking, debating and shaping the future: Foresight for Europe Report by HLEG for the European Commission, 25 April, 2002 This new culture should focus on producing a strategic framework for better-informed policies, based upon transparent, participatory and flexible decision-making in face of complex challenges.

15 Foresight has an impact on all policy fields Starting from a science & technology perspective, and then integrating horizontal science-society questions, Foresight activities contribute to the development of European knowledge-base and propose visions for the future of European society. They thus offer a framework for policy development, allowing a coherent development of these policies in all fields.

16 HLEG on Developing foresight to strengthen the strategic basis of the ERA Chair, Prof. Luk Van Langenhove Science and technology foresight in Europe: A prospective view... The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities'

17 Towards 2010 EC, Employment and Social Affairs DG, Knowledge Society

18 Rise of Knowledge Society Knowledge Society is a post-industrial society based on production and dissemination of information that increases individuals and companies knowledge. Foresight for the deveoplmentForesight for the deveoplment of higher education/research relations in the perspective of the European Research Area (ERA). By Prof. Etienne Bourgeois, Rapporteur. EC, DG Research, Unit RTD-K.2. October 2002. p. 10

19 Governing in time: long-termism and the role of futures thinking in the UK Government ( Conference The role of foresight...)The role of foresight By Prof. Geoff Mulgan, Director Prime Ministers Strategy UnitStrategy Unit (UK Prime Ministers Office) European Knowledge Society Foresight – a Handbook of Methodology

20 European Knowledge Society Foresight - a Handbook of Methodology November 2002 PREST and FFRC for the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions

21 Foresight as a Process Renewal Pre- Foresight Recruitment Generation Action

22 Experts Panels Intelligence Gathering Knowledge Fusing Visioning Targeting Synthesis Dissemination Implementation Stakeholders Scoping Foresight as a Process: methods Renewal PreForesight RecruitmentGeneration Action Monitoring Management Evaluation

23 Foresight Informing and legitimising action, establishing preparedness Sharing visions. Exchanging knowledge, mutual understanding... Identifying indicators and determining goals, evaluation processes and mechanisms Foresights triple base Strategic action plans Planning tools and techniques, priority setting, etc. Futures reports, scenarios, forecasts and visions Futures methods, forecasting techniques, modelling & visionary approaches, etc. Broadening participation, establishing and reinforcing networks Networking tools and techniques, groupwork and facilitation, survey approaches, etc. Fore- sight Futures Plan- ning Network- ing


25 FORESIGHT SYSTEM FORESIGHT SYSTEM Foresight constitutes a systematic attempt to observe the long-term future of science, technology, society, the economy and their mutual interactions in order to generate knowledge with which to effect social, economic and environmental improvements based on well founded projections.

26 FORESIGHT SYSTEM FORESIGHT SYSTEM However, it is not enough to establish a clear and efficient technology to conduct foresight. It is also vitally important to ensure that foresight outcomes are taken into consideration in policy debates and decision making. Only in this way can its maximum benefits be obtained. Ramon Marimon. Spanish Secretary of State for Science and Technology. Conference The role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities.

27 Prospective and Foresight: towards a convergence ? Fabienne GOUX-BAUDIMENT proGective / euroProspective France 4/presentation goux baudiment.ppt

28 AB C Sometimes the shortest way from A to B is not the direct one The Japanese Vision will be C, even 9 x C ! The long road from technology to society The shortest one from territory to society… The Easiest Way to Face The Confrontation

29 Vision as Origin of Foresight 1963, the Japanese Vision : – A public administration technology for shaping the future – The future to be shaped brings together expected, possible and preferred futures – A concrete blueprint in a close interaction with general [industrial] policy – Policy implementation in which contributors to the Vision are given broad participation.

30 Vision as Origin of Foresight 1960s-1980s, the key factors of success : – Formulated from a total comprehensive system perspective – Given further consideration by experts of related fields – Are joint products between government and representatives from a broad spectrum – Prompt policy reaction implemented in response – Contributors can participate in consortia and conduct what they proposed (here: R&D)

31 Vision as Origin of Foresight 1990s, a Turning Point and a new Vision: – Government and industry no longer shared the same expectations and preferences: dissensus – Immediate result shows: a real quality of listening to each other (change of strategy, from creation to consolidation) the need of an integrated and interdisciplinary approach, with interministerial implementation, to face crisis and complex issues the implementation of large discussions (single forum for advisory councils, Competitiveness Council of Ministers and Chairmen of leading firms) A strong top-down initiative by the Prime Minister, challenging the autonomy of the Visions concept.

32 The Heritage of Visions Comprehensive Concrete Consensus Commitment Credibility Communication Concentration Coordination Consortia

33 First Convergence… The Japanese Vision is anchored into the R&D in the S&T field in conjunction with economy; v. technological forecast: normative process, interdisciplinary and integrated approach, broad participation, open future Foresight is the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the LT future of T S,, the economy and society to identify the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Benjamin R. MARTIN, 1995

34 Foresight: The Long Road a comparison between German and Japanese approach for technology foresight shows the impacts of the cultural factors (1994) The point of the world paradigm shift (1990s) is human being (society & values) Foresight is moving from technology to society (Australia, UK) Foresight pushes the boundaries of perception forward by assessing the implications of present actions, detecting and avoiding problems before they occur, considering the present implications of possible future events, and envisioning aspects of desired futures. Richard A. SLAUGHTER, 1996.

35 The Short Road: The French Prospective From the Government (1970s): prospective as a tool for planning (CGP & DATAR) To Regions (1980s): regional prospective as a strategic tool To sub-regions (counties, cities, metropolitan area) (1990s): territorial prospective as a tool for planning and local governance A long tradition : 85 exercises of regional and territorial prospective identified from 1988 to 2000

36 Key Words For Territorial Prospective Human being as the centre of any meaning Future to be built Problem-solving, concrete Interdisciplinary Long term view Systemic thinking Responsibility: involve relevant actors (stakeholders) Project based on a shared vision Large participation Introduce and accompany change Rigorous methodology

37 Territorial Prospective: Still A Step Forward S&T / economy Government / firms MT: 10 years Immediate response S&T / economy / society Government / experts MT: 10 years ? territory / economy / society Local actors / stakeholders LT: 15-20 years Self-made project / planning MT LT actionsprogrammesgeneral framework

38 Differences foresight/prospective The bottom/up – top/down process government Regions, Cities… foresight prospective Autonomy of Territories

39 Differences foresight/prospective sectoral – comprehensive field foresight prospective S & T societyeconomy territory

40 Differences foresight/prospective A future to anticipate or a future to build? foresight territorial prospective exploratory classical methodology normative advanced methodology

41 Differences foresight/prospective A future to anticipate or a future to build? foresight prospective exploratory processresults normative

42 Spaces For Convergence Participation: – Who: authorities, experts, stakeholders, population ? Collective intelligence – How: consultation, concertation, ongoing process ? Knowledge base – Outcomes: consortia, networks, projects, planning ? (from bottom-up to top-down ?) – Why? As a tool for governance (cf. the French law Voynet)

43 Spaces For Convergence Sustainability issues – No global solution without local drastic change – The principle of subsidiarity – The new legitimacy: the initiative of action – Quality of life and environment as a new competitive advantage in the territorial competition – S&T, economy, society and environment as a comprehensive challenge for tomorrow morning

44 FORESIGHT PHILOSOPHY Prof. Ortwinn Renn EU-ConferenceEU-Conference Foresight: Challenges for Europes Regions Future ir product of human activities and random events. Foresight explores the space for human activities and interventions to shape the future (contingencies). Foresight provides options rather than predictions. Foresight provides guidance to all actors and reduces uncertainty and ambiquity.


46 Ioannina Conference Manifesto for Foresight Cooperation in an Enlarged European Research and Innovation Area Foresight refers to the 'basis' and its success depends on the 'basis'. The overall aim of foresight cooperation should be outlined in a single phrase: "increase democracy in governance and in building a more powerful Europe". Foresight cooperation, nevertheless, should not be a goal in itself. It should serve the need for national/regional systems to open up and allow for coordination and collaboration, and should also serve the aim to inform, sensitise, encourage and support people in getting actively involved in shaping the future they desire in the world they live in.


48 Current issues and challenges Visions from Forward Studies Unit A.Puga, J.Štrauhmanis. Latvijas Zinātnieku savienībā. Aicinājums uz diskusiju par nākotnes studijām Latvijā. ( A Call for the discussion on the development of future studies in Latvia, by Forward Studies Unit to the Latvian Union of Scientists). Zinātnes Vēstnesis ( Science Herald), # 7 (257), 14. 04. 2003. (in Latvian)

49 Current issues and challenges Visions from Forward Studies Unit A.Puga. Nākotnes studijas Eiropā ( Future studies and foresight in Europe ). Zinātnes Vēstnesis (Science Herald), # 10 (260), 26. 05. 2003. (in Latvian)

50 Current issues and challenges Visions from Forward Studies Unit Epistemology and man Knowledge and science is the assimilation of the message of freedom placed by Christ in the heart of man Science and the Future of Mankind: Science for Man and Man for Science.The proceedings of the Preparatory Session 12-14 November 1999 and the Jubilee Plenary Session 10-13 November 2000, Pontificia Academia Scientiarym. p.14

51 Current issues and challenges Dr. Luk Van Langenhove Rethinking the social sciences: initiatives from multilateral organizations First, there is a need to re-invent the infrastuctural needs. Living in a globalised world means that national infrastructures will have to be framed into international structures.... the ITC revolution is changing the way in which the social sciences research is performed and communicated. Unity and diversity: the contribution of the social sciences and the humanities to the European Research Area. Proceedings of the Belgian EU Presidency research conference, 29-30 October, 2001, Bruges. p. 22 - 27

52 Current issues and challenges Secondly, the public legitimisation of the social sciences need to be reinvented...legitimisation depends upon the claim of making the world more inteligeble and upon the contribution to the problem-solving and policy-making in society.

53 Current issues and challenges Dealing with complexity is possible the most challenging task before us. It means that the social sciences will have to be able to investigate the complex social reality at its different temporal, spatial and aggregation levels.

54 Current issues and challenges Dr. Luk Van Langenhove Rethinking the social sciences: initiatives from multilateral organizations Fourthly, a re-invention of the disciplinary structures seems a pressing task. While most research is still done from the vantage point of single disciplines, social problems are multidisciplinary. Together these four challenges can be interpreted as a plea for change.

55 Current issues and challenges Visions from Forward Studies Unit Rethinking Talcott Parsons for methodology and constructive approach globalization system of modern societies theory of action

56 Forward Studies Unit Research orientation Future Latvia in European knowledge society European scenarios System theory and comparative research on post-communist capitalism in Europe ( system aspects, driving forces, trends, challenges, interrelations, options)

57 Forward Studies Unit Research orientation Transnational foresight collaboration in the development of the ERA Social foresight Foresight information dissemination

58 A European approach implies that the foresight topics to be chosen should fulfil criteria such as: a.Targeted b.Particularly complex c.Concerning a missing field d.Right timing e.Effect on European dimension or in need of European dimension (Foresight for Europe...)

59 STRENGTHENING THE DIMENSION OF FORESIGHT IN THE EUROPEAN RESEARCH AREA, An outline GuideAn outline Guide to opportunities offered by the 6th European Community Research Framework Programme for supporting co-operation in the field of foresight in Europe, EC, DG Research, Unit RTD-K.2. 2002 FP 6. Find a partner FP 6. Citizens and Governance in knowledge-based society Find a partner/ project

60 Forward Studies Unit in Riga would highly appreciate all comments, improvements and proposals in the context of the development of future studies and foresight in Latvia returning Europe.

61 The end of presentation

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