Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

PLUS 2012 Symposia GLOBAL RISKS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: CAN THE U.S. DEAL WITH DOMESTIC GRIDLOCK & MEET ITS FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES?

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "PLUS 2012 Symposia GLOBAL RISKS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: CAN THE U.S. DEAL WITH DOMESTIC GRIDLOCK & MEET ITS FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES?"— Presentation transcript:

1 PLUS 2012 Symposia GLOBAL RISKS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: CAN THE U.S. DEAL WITH DOMESTIC GRIDLOCK & MEET ITS FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES?

2 SPEAKER: Marvin Zonis, Professor Emeritus, the Graduate School of Business, the University of Chicago.

3 Medical PL Symposium Global Political Challenges in 2012 March 29, 2012 PLUS

4 The New Yorker, March 12, 2012 4

5 Take Aways: How Does the World Work? *Nationalism *Current Account Deficits/Surpluses *Deleveraging The Great Global Challenges of 2012: Global Political Challenges in 2012 *The Global Context*China *The United States*Russia *The Arab World*The Eurozone *Iran*Energy *Pakistan/ Afghanistan*Emerging Markets

6 Global Political Challenges in 2012 Take Aways *Its Not As Bad As It Sounds (Mark Twain) BUT the really good news is 3 to 5 years off *New presidents in 2012 *Globalization disseminates everything – not just goods but ideas, people, drugs, services, revolution, disease, emotions, finance, and supply chains *The Middle East in Turmoil – and the turn to Islam *Pakistan and Afghanistan – not on our planet? *The eurozone, as we know it, is doomed *China-more instability, slower growth, stuck in middle income *Russia living off oil while the Russians strike back *Major oil price shock in 2012? *Major transformations are in the works – booming developing economies and technological marvels. Africa and Mexico big beneficiaries

7 Global Political Challenges in 2012 The Global Context in 2012 Economic Slowdown Global Rebalancing Deleveraging New Presidents

8 International Air Travel: 02/08 – 01/12 (Passenger & Freight) International Air Travel Association

9 Global Rebalancing: Hows Your Current Account? CountryDeficitCountrySurplus Turkey-10.3%Saudi Arabia+24.4% Greece-8.6Singapore+18.4 Poland-4.7Switzerland+13.6 Spain-3.7Malaysia+12.1 Italy-3.6Taiwan+8.2 U.S.A.-3.1Netherlands+7.0 Canada-2.9Germany+5.2 France-2.5China+3.1 India-2.3South Korea+2.6 Great Britain-1.9Japan+2.2

10 Global Deleveraging https://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Working_out_of_debt_2914

11 Global Deleveraging 11 McKinsey Global Institute, Federal Reserve, Bea, Financial Times, March 13, 2012

12 New Presidents in 2012? GDP (Billions Current US$) GDP (PPP Billions US$) China$5,926.6$10,169.5 Dominican Repub.51.892.8 Finland238.7196.6 France2,560.02,194.1 India1,727.14,194.9 Korea1,014.41,417.5 Mexico1,034.81,644.4 Russia1,479.82,812.3 Taiwan430.6821.8 U.S.14,587.7 Venezuela391.8352.7 World Bank, World Development Indicators Total World$63,123.9$76,647.4 Presidents %46.7 %50.2 %

13 Global Political Challenges in 2012 The United States

14 An Election Campaign in This Context http://pewresearch.org/pubs/2167/rich-poor-social-conflict-class 14

15 http://www.gallup.com/poll/151568/americans-prioritize-growing-economy-reducing-wealth-gap.aspx How important Do You Think It Is For The Government In Washington To

16 And U.S. Deleveraging 16 McKinsey Global Institute, Federal Reserve, Bea, Financial Times, March 13, 2012

17 http://www.businessinsider.com/the-war-between-young-people-and-old-people-for-jobs-2011-9?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29

18 Proportion of Output Employers Spend on Labor http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08

19 Whose Incomes Increased? iTulip.com

20 Concentration of Wealth http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-fed-housing-and-stocks-chimera-middle-class-assets

21 Income Inequality Growing The New York Times, March 26, 2011 21

22 Budget Threats http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/11frusg/11guide.pdf 22

23 But Its The Interest Payments http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/11frusg/11guide.pdf 23

24 The Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2011

25 Global Political Challenges in 2012 The Middle East

26 Still Smiling? The priority today is the return of security, which cannot be achieved unless terrorism is hit with an iron fist.

27 Still Smiling? The priority today is the return of security, which cannot be achieved unless terrorism is hit with an iron fist.

28 An Alawite Redoubt? A Turkish Border Refuge Zone? http://geocurrents.info/geopolitics/confusion-about-syrias-alawites

29 Libya Struggles to Create a Government Spiegel Online, March 21 2011

30 Libya in Parts

31 Egypt: 70.49% of Seats to Islam

32 The Winners of 21 Percent of the Vote Even if we cant provide economic renewal, its enough if we can lift the non-believers up and show them monotheism. Said Abdul-Azzim Ali. The leader of Nour in Alexandria Financial Times, November 16, 2011

33 Bad (Economic) Times Ahead http://www.economist.com/node/21546018

34 Iraq - Feb. 22, 12: 26 Attacks, 13 Bombs: 55 Dead, 100s Injured

35 Saudi King Abdullahs Problems

36

37 Saudi Budget Squeeze Water Subsidies: $20 billion Electricity Subsidies: $15 billion Abdullahs New Promises: $130 billion Saudi Gas: $.48 per gallon

38 http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1814/muslim-public-opinion-hamas-hezbollah-al-qaeda-islam-role-in-politics-democracy

39 If Islam is the Answer Is Turkey the Question? http://www.talkturkey.us/images/mrandmrserdogan.gif

40 If Islam is the Answer Is Turkey the Question? http://www.talkturkey.us/images/mrandmrserdogan.gif

41 Global Political Challenges in 2012 Iran

42 Ayatollah Khamenei February 3, 2012 This "truly cancerous tumor, Israel, must disappear from this region, and this undoubtedly will take place." http://www.leader.ir/langs/fa/index.php?p=contentShow&id=9093

43 New Iranian Nuclear Site http://news.cnet.com/8301-30685_3-10362358-264.html?part=rss&subj=news&tag=2547-1_3-0-20

44 44 Iranian Missile Program Irans Developing Nuclear and Missile Program, CSIS, 2-15-07

45 Before: Iranian Missile Development Base http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-showing-damage-from-november-12-2011-blast-at-military-base /

46 Before: Iranian Missile Development Base http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-showing-damage-from-november-12-2011-blast-at-military-base /

47 Before: Iranian Missile Development Base http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-showing-damage-from-november-12-2011-blast-at-military-base /

48 After- Missile Base Outside Bid Khaneh http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/satellite-image-showing-damage-from-november-12-2011-blast-at-military-base/

49 Global Political Challenges in 2012 Pakistan - Afghanistan

50 Pakistan

51 Sirajuddin Haqqani "The Haqqani network... acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency." Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, September 26, 2011.

52 Pakistani Beliefs http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1683/

53 Foreign Policy, May 19, 2011 Men Are Fundamental. Women Are Secondary.

54 Global Political Challenges in 2012 China

55 Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang 55 http://www.zimbio.com/photos/Xi+Jinping/Li+Keqiang/NPC+Seventh+Plenary+Session/5BkdR4EtIcn

56 Bo Xilai Out; Xi Jinping Speaks If you crave to be ostentatious, to play to the crowd, and seek fame and fortune... (it) damages the partys image, lets people down and makes them lose faith in us. The Wall Street Journal, March 17-18, 2012

57 What Are The Delegates Wearing? www.weibo.com/menglikeer Zegna Jacket

58 Chinas Exports 58 http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/frank-talk/?i=2803

59 Shanghai 1990 http://www.businessinsider.com

60 Shanghai 2010 http://www.businessinsider.com

61 Vice President Xi Jinping We must develop the economy mainly by relying on the domestic market and attach great importance to domestic demand, especially consumption demand, in driving economic develop-ment... It is important that we open our markets even wider, firmly oppose and resist protectionism in all forms, and uphold a fair, free and open global trade and investment system... Bloomberg, April 10, 2010

62 Up to $1.9 Trillion of New Consumption?

63 GNI Per Capita and Governance Score (2010) MiddleIncomeCountriesHighIncomeCountries CountryGNI/CapitaGovernance ScoreCountryGNI/CapitaGovernance Score Belarus$6,130107.4Hong Kong$32,780524.1 Russia 9,910158.2U.S.A. 47,240501.3 China 4,260211.1 Argentina 8,500248.7 Colombia 5,510259.0 Turkey 9,890302.5 Brazil 9,390339.8 South Africa 6,090356.1 Malaysia 7,760363.4 Lithuania 11,390435.4 World Bank - http://worldbank.org

64 World Bank Governance World Bank Governance Indicators Voice and Accountability Political Stability Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality Rule of Law Control of Corruption 64

65 Of 101 Middle-income Economies In 1960, Only 13 Became High Income By 2008 65 http://www- wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/02/28/000356161_201202280 01303/Rendered/PDF/671790WP0P127500China020300complete.pdf

66 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1cfa57c4-ed03-11df-9912-00144feab49a.html#axzz15JYJJ7A9 A Healthy Great Power Mentality

67 President Hu on the West "We must clearly see that international hostile forces are intensifying the strategic plot of Westernizing and dividing China, and ideological and cultural fields are the focal areas of their long-term infiltration... We should deeply understand the seriousness and complexity of the ideological struggle, always sound the alarms and remain vigilant, and take forceful measures to be on guard and respond...The overall strength of Chinese culture and its international influence is not commensurate with China's international status...The international culture of West is strong while we are weak. KGSNightWatch@KGSNightWatch.com, January 4, 2012

68 But Repression Is Increasing http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1945/chinese-may-not-be-ready-for-revolution

69 The Chinese Get Richer – And Then What? The Wall Street Journal, November 2, 2011

70 Global Political Challenges in 2012 Russia

71 The President 71 http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/7/2011/12/28292cf2f8be4d6dfe8ec21941e88fa2.jp

72 What Happens with Political Instability 72 Capital Flight 2010: $33.6 billion Capital Flight 2011: $84.2 billion

73 GNI Per Capita and Governance Score (2010) MiddleIncomeCountriesHighIncomeCountries CountryGNI/CapitaGovernance ScoreCountryGNI/CapitaGovernance Score Belarus$6,130107.4Hong Kong$32,780524.1 Russia 9,910158.2U.S.A. 47,240501.3 China 4,260211.1 Argentina 8,500248.7 Colombia 5,510259.0 Turkey 9,890302.5 Brazil 9,390339.8 South Africa 6,090356.1 Malaysia 7,760363.4 Lithuania 11,390435.4 World Bank - http://worldbank.org

74 World Bank Definitions World Bank Governance Indicators Voice and Accountability Political Stability Government Effectiveness Regulatory Quality Rule of Law Control of Corruption Gross National Income (same as GDP) – Atlas Method in Current US $ National Income converted to US $ using a three year average of exchange rates adjusted for inflation 74

75 Global Political Challenges in 2012 The Euro

76 What It Means to be German Chancellor At the BeginningNow

77 77 http://Europehttp://Europe on the Brink, Policy Brief, Peterson Institute for International Economics, July 2011 Principal To Be Paid From July 2011 to July 2012 (light) Plus budget Deficits (dark) For Euro Area Members As % of 2011 Estimated GDP

78 163 % of GDP Declining to 120 by 2020 http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/bild-815097-309872.html

79 Portugal Bond Yield http://www.google.com/imgres?q=portugal&start=0&ndsp=19&ved=1t:429,r:9,s:0

80 How The U.S. Did It! http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/27/US_Public_debt_per_GDP_1791-2006.svg/697px-US_Public_debt_per_GDP_1791-2006.svg.png

81 Global Political Challenges in 2012 The Oil Problem

82 Spending More 82 International Energy Agency, Financial Times, March 24, 2012

83 Global Political Challenges in 2012 The Continued Emergence of the Emerging Markets

84 Global Political Challenges in 2012 Mexico

85 President Calderon and Bombardier Gannett News Service

86 Enrique Pena Nieto, Andrés Manuel López Obrador Josefina Vazquez Mota

87 Mexico The New York Times, July 6, 2011

88 The True Size of Africa

89 African Futures 201020112012 Angola1.6%7.8%10.5% Botswana8.66.06.6 D.R. Congo7.26.56.0 Republic of Congo9.17.84.7 Ethiopia8.08.58.0 Kenya5.05.76.5 Mali4.56.05.4 Mozambique7.07.57.8 Niger7.55.515.4 Nigeria8.46.96.6 Rwanda6.5 7.0 Tanzania6.56.46.6 Uganda5.26.06.5 Zimbabwe9.07.35.7 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/

90 Asian Futures 201020112012 Bangladesh6.0%6.3%6.6% Cambodia6.06.5 China10.39.69.5 India10.48.27.8 Indonesia6.16.26.5 Lao P.D. R.7.77.57.3 Malaysia7.25.55.2 Myanmar5.35.5 Philippines7.35.0 Sri Lanka9.17.06.5 Thailand7.84.04.5 Vietnam6.86.36.8 90 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011

91 Latin America Futures 201020112012 Costa Rica4.7%4.4%4.5% Dominican Republic7.85.5 Panama7.57.47.2 Argentina9.26.04.6 Brazil7.54.13.6 Chile5.26.25.0 Colombia4.34.64.5 Peru8.96.65.9 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/update/02/pdf/0611.pdf

92 Its Up To US The challenges confronting the United States and the world are many. The resources – intellectual, financial, political, military – for confronting, surmounting and ultimately benefitting from those challenges are huge. What are the impediments? As usual – ideology, self-interest, narrow mindedness, lack of political will, fear. What will you do to help this country overcome those impediments. YOU!

93 Medical PL Symposium Global Political Challenges in 2012 March 29, 2012 PLUS

94 PLUS has made Wi-Fi available to all PLUS attendees during the Symposia. The Wi-Fi Code is PLUS-Symp2012 Wi-Fi is only available on Level 4, the Ballroom Level and will not work in other areas of the hotel.


Download ppt "PLUS 2012 Symposia GLOBAL RISKS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: CAN THE U.S. DEAL WITH DOMESTIC GRIDLOCK & MEET ITS FOREIGN POLICY CHALLENGES?"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google