Presentation on theme: "Importance of monthly statistics on Natural Gas"— Presentation transcript:
1Importance of monthly statistics on Natural Gas Seminar Compilation of Natural Gas Statistics27 February 2012 United Nations, New YorkMieke ReeceOil and Gas StatisticsIEA Energy Data Centre
2Overview What is natural gas The importance and use of natural gas in the worldThe outlook for Natural GasThe need for monthly dataIEA’s monthly gas data collection system
3What is natural gas?Natural gas comprises several gases, but consists mainly of methane.It can be in gaseous form or in liquid state (LNG)LNG is liquefied natural gas that has been converted temporarily to liquid form for ease of storage or transport. It is condensed into a liquid at close to atmospheric pressure by cooling it to −162 °C (−260 °F).
4Overview What is natural gas The importance and use of natural gas in the worldThe outlook for Natural GasThe need for monthly dataIEA’s monthly gas data collection system
5World - Share of natural gas in the energy mix Increase in the share of natural gas in the world
6World – Use of natural gas Natural gas use mainly for power generationIn the other category, gas is used mainly for residential consumption
10Overview What is natural gas The importance and use of natural gas in the worldThe outlook for Natural GasThe need for monthly dataIEA’s monthly gas data collection system
11The future of gas ? – A growing market Global gas demand is expected to grow by 2% per year(*)(*) WEO - current policies scenario
12Natural gas – why is it an attractive fuel? Reserves – plenty available, about 60 years R/PProduction techniques – new production methods, more efficient and less expensiveTransport (LNG)Energy security: several aspects :Diversify away from oilIncrease security if indigenous production of gasShale gasClean fuel – CO2 emissions lower than for coal and oil
13Overview What is natural gas The importance and use of natural gas in the worldThe outlook for Natural GasThe need for monthly dataIEA’s monthly gas data collection system
14What data are collected on an annual basis? Natural gas - supply and consumptionPipe lineLNGTransformationExportsStock BuildEnergyDistribution LossesMarketed ProductionInland ConsumptionTransportImportsStock DrawLNGPipe lineResidential Commercial AgricultureIndustry
15Why are annual data not enough? Natural gas is very seasonal - swings in monthly consumption are enormousNatural gas market changing from a regional market to a global market (mainly because of LNG)Energy security reasons: timely data is essential if there is an international gas crisisGas market transparency: the gas market needs more transparency as production, trade flows and consumption are not available for the world on a monthly basis.
17Natural gas is becoming a global market Trade of natural gas is expandingParticularly LNG market: more than doubled in 10 yearsMore sources of LNG (e.g. Norway, Russia)More importers of LNG ( e.g. Brazil, Chile)LNG can be transported all over the worldSpot markets and hubs are developingMany future projects in the pipeline: liquefaction terminals,regasification units etc
19Monthly data essential for energy security Countries need to know how dependent they are from certain import sourcesIn the past: long term contracts with a few suppliersNow : some long term gas, but peak demand is often met by spot purchases of LNG.Gas storage and stock levels important to deal with seasonal demandAnnual data is not timely enough to monitor the gas markets.
20A few recent examplesFebruary 2012 Extreme cold weather spell in Europe:Supplies from Russia were reduced by 10% for a few days, before returning to normal levels. Several countries had historic high consumption and needed to compensate Russian gas from other sources. Crisis measures had to be taken in several European countries: Poland, Italy, Romania, Greece etc.Ukraine – Russia dispute in January 2009A 3-week disruption, the largest gas crisis in Europe’s history with a total loss of more than 5 bcm for Europe and some 2 bcm for Ukraine.To be able to monitor these types of crises annual data are not sufficient – more timely monthly data are essential
21Monthly data for investment planning Monthly gas demand highly sensitive to weather and temperatureThere is a need to balance supply and demand at any point of time during the year.Decisions on gas storage and investments in infrastructure are based on monthly data.
22Monthly data for gas market transparency OECD countries report monthly natural gas data to IEAGrowing share of gas demand is from non-OECD countries (in 2010 – 51% and by 2035 expected to be 61%)There is a large gap in monthly gas market information for the non-OECD countriesThere is therefore a need to fill this data gap which can be accomplished by the 7 international organisations collecting
23IEA’s monthly gas data collection Monthly Gas Statisticscollected since January 1984Data on Production, trade, stock changes and consumptionTrade by origin and destinationCollected for M-2Gas trade flowsObjective: to monitor physical gas trade flows in EuropeLaunched to solve problems with traditional trade reportingGas JodiStarted in October 2010Data for M-1
24Natural gas – monthly versus annual Pipe lineLNGTransformationExportsStock BuildEnergyDistribution LossesMarketed ProductionInland ConsumptionTransportImportsStock DrawLNGPipe lineResidential Commercial AgricultureIndustryAnnual dataMonthly data
25Monthly Gas Trade Flows Project EntryExitMonthly Data
26Monthly Gas Data - GTF 3. The Monthly Gas Trade Flows To improve transparency in the European gas market, the IEA has been collecting monthly gas flow data on an entry and exit point basis (physical flows) for winter and has made it available on an interactive map.Clicking on border points and countries will show additional gas information. You can also explore other options as provided by the software, for example the full screen mode by clicking at the bottom of the map on3. The Monthly Gas Trade Flows