Presentation on theme: "New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM www.megaenergy.org April 16, 2010."— Presentation transcript:
New Yorks Energy Challenges 2010 Gordon Boyd, EnergyNext, Inc. For Municipal Electric and Gas AllianceSM April 16, 2010
Energy Priorities 2010 Good News and Bad News 1.Historic low energy prices…today. 2.Regional differentials penalize consumers 3.Cap and Trade: upside for NY. 4.Energy infrastructure agenda. 5.Energy market trends. 6.Consumers have the responsibility to choose.
Energy Priorities 2010 Why are prices low? Demand destruction: The Great Recession (Bad news) Speculators out of market (Good news) Natural gas supplies are up. Unconventional, shale gas. (Good news)
Energy Priorities 2010 Wholesale Power Prices at Historic Low in 2009 (NYISO) LoadAv.Electric Av.NatGas GWh$/MWh$/MMBtu $58.26 $ $51.22 $ $49.90 $ $62.58 $ $62.80 $ $93.83 $ $76.45 $ $80.29 $ $95.31 $ $48.63 $4.87
Energy Priorities 2010 Wholesale Electricity Price Trend (Average, NYS)
Energy Priorities 2010 Wholesale Natural Gas Price Trends (Average, NYS)
Energy Priorities 2010 Total Electric Demand NYS
NYMEX Natural Gas Prices
Energy Priorities 2010 Natural gas storage trend, last 24 months (USEIA) ((CAUSE))
Energy Priorities 2010 Another form of NGas storage ((Cause))
Energy Priorities 2010 Growth of Unconventional NGas ((Cause))
Energy Priorities 2010 US shale activity picks up (www.rigzone.com) Index to 100 Jan08www.rigzone.com
Energy Priorities 2010 Electric fixed price trend 4/15/2010 ((Effect))
Energy Priorities 2010 January 3, 2010, 1 p.m.
Energy Priorities 2010 January 6, 2010, 9 a.m.
Energy Priorities 2010 Upstate NY Pricing Factors Transmission congestion, East-West Supply: Adequacy of nearby generation Demand: Stability, growth or decline
Energy Priorities Congestion Points Projected cost: Leeds-Pleasant Valley Zones F-G: $1,307,000,000 Mohawk Valley Zones E-F $567,000,000 West-Central Zones B-C $230,000,000
Energy Priorities 2010 Historic Cost of Congestion (NYISO) 2004: $833,000, : $2,613,000, (1Q): $233,000,000
Energy Priorities 2010 Recent projects November 2009 Linden transmission, GE developer, 300 MW between PJM and NYISO Dover, 1,000 MW nat gas. Advance Power AG 345KV underwater connection Bayonne, NJ to Gowanus-Brooklyn Stephentown 20MW flywheel, Beacon Power. Smart Grid Tech.
Energy Priorities 2010 Champlain-Hudson Power Express 2,000 Megawatts Under water, underground 355 miles to NYC/NE Hydropower and wind sources Outside existing energy routes
Energy Priorities 2010 Cap and Trade: Impact on New York ratepayers Carbon tax will raise price of coal- fired generation. Other states are more dependent on coal than New York. Electric prices will normalize.
Energy Priorities 2010 New York vs U.S. New York State cents/kwh U.S. average 8.90 cents/kwh
Energy Priorities 2010 Pennsylvania Electric generation fuel mix, Nov. 2009
Energy Priorities 2010 Ohio Electric generation fuel mix Nov. 2009
Energy Priorities 2010 NY State Electric generation by fuel source Nov. 2009
Energy Priorities 2010 New York wind resources
Energy Priorities 2010 Renewables by 2015 (NYS Energy Plan) Wind (1,280MW as of 2009): On shore 7,993 MW Off shore 534 MW Solar PV: 100 MW (14.6MW as of 2006) Total NYS peak electric demand 2008: +/- 38,720 MW (USEIA)
Energy Priorities 2010 Wind Power Challenges Balancing, storage and ramping Need for energy storage technologies Coordination among regional grid operators to manage variable flow
Energy Priorities 2010 Private Investment in renewables Energy price hedge On-site, behind the meter, PPAs Bi-lateral deals between consumers and developers Green marketing Renewable Energy Credits (RECs)
Energy Priorities 2010 …Whats next? NYS Energy Plan encourages 1.New capacity, both Generation and Transmission. 2.Fuel diversity, especially renewables. 3.Clear signals to consumers from energy markets to induce efficiency.
Energy Priorities 2010 Other policy initiatives under way Smart metering – Installations began Net metering – Customer sited generation banking. Article 10 - One-stop permitting expired Is renewed effort in store? Federal ARRA funding, block grants
Energy Priorities 2010 Consumer Choices and Responsibilities Shop for energy supplies, price, rate, tax savings. Pay less. Energy efficiency, SCR, NYSERDA programs. Use less. Federal incentives, tax credits for efficiency and renewables