4The International Monetary System Chapter 11The International Monetary System
5International Monetary System VIDEO:Tough Job: A Look at the IMF (local) :00Tough Job: A Look at the IMF....(B) :00
6What Is The International Monetary System? The international monetary system refers to the institutional arrangements that countries adopt to govern exchange ratesA floating exchange rate system exists when a country allows the foreign exchange market to determine the relative value of a currencythe U.S. dollar, the EU euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound all float freely against each othertheir values are determined by market forces and fluctuate day to dayThe world’s four major currencies – dollar, euro, yen, and pound – are all free to float against each other.
7What Is The International Monetary System? A pegged exchange rate system exists when a country fixes the value of its currency relative to a reference currencymany Gulf states peg their currencies to the U.S. dollarA dirty float exists when a country tries to hold the value of its currency within some range of a reference currency such as the U.S. dollarChina pegs the yuan to a basket of other currenciesPegged exchange rates, dirty floats and fixed exchange rates all require some degree of government intervention.
8What Is The International Monetary System? A fixed exchange rate system exists when countries fix their currencies against each other at some mutually agreed on exchange rateEuropean Monetary System (EMS) prior to 1999
9What Was The Gold Standard? The gold standard refers to a system in which countries peg currencies to gold and guarantee their convertibilitythe gold standard dates back to ancient times when gold coins were a medium of exchange, unit of account, and store of valuepayment for imports was made in gold or silverLO1: Describe the historical development of the modern global monetary system.
10What Was The Gold Standard? later, payment was made in paper currency which was linked to gold at a fixed ratein the 1880s, most nations followed the gold standard$1 = grains of “fine” (pure) goldthe gold par value refers to the amount of a currency needed to purchase one ounce of gold
11Why Did The Gold Standard Make Sense? The great strength of the gold standard was that it contained a powerful mechanism for achieving balance-of-trade equilibrium by all countrieswhen the income a country’s residents earn from its exports is equal to the money its residents pay for importsIt is this feature that continues to prompt calls to return to a gold standard
12Why Did The Gold Standard Make Sense? The gold standard worked well from the 1870s until 1914but, many governments financed their World War I expenditures by printing money and so, created inflationPeople lost confidence in the systemdemanded gold for their currency putting pressure on countries' gold reserves, and forcing them to suspend gold convertibilityBy 1939, the gold standard was deadPost WWI, war heavy expenditures affected the value of dollars against gold.U.S. raised dollars to gold from $20.67 to $35 per ounce.Other countries followed suit and devalued their currencies.
13What Was The Bretton Woods System? In 1944, representatives from 44 countries met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to design a new international monetary system that would facilitate postwar economic growthUnder the new agreementa fixed exchange rate system was establishedall currencies were fixed to gold, but only the U.S. dollar was directly convertible to golddevaluations could not to be used for competitive purposesa country could not devalue its currency by more than 10% without IMF approvalLO1: Describe the historical development of the modern global monetary system.A key problem with the gold standard was that there was no multinational institution that could stop countries from engaging in competitive devaluations.
14What Institutions Were Established At Bretton Woods? The Bretton Woods agreement also established two multinational institutionsThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) to maintain order in the international monetary system through a combination of discipline and flexibilityThe World Bank to promote general economic developmentalso called the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)LO2: Explain the role played by the World Bank and the IMF in the international monetary system.
15What Institutions Were Established At Bretton Woods? The International Monetary Fund (IMF)fixed exchange rates stopped competitive devaluations and brought stability to the world trade environmentfixed exchange rates imposed monetary discipline on countries, limiting price inflationin cases of fundamental disequilibrium, devaluations were permittedthe IMF lent foreign currencies to members during short periods of balance-of-payments deficit, when a rapid tightening of monetary or fiscal policy would hurt domestic employmentThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) Articles of Agreement were heavily influenced by the worldwide financial collapse, competitive devaluations, trade wars, high unemployment, hyperinflation in Germany and elsewhere, and general economic disintegration that occurred between the two world wars.The aim of the IMF was to try to avoid a repetition of that chaos through a combination of discipline and flexibility.
16What Institutions Were Established At Bretton Woods? The World BankCountries can borrow from the World Bank in two waysUnder the IBRD scheme, money is raised through bond sales in the international capital marketborrowers pay a market rate of interest - the bank's cost of funds plus a margin for expenses.Through the International Development Agency, an arm of the bank created in 1960IDA loans go only to the poorest countries
17Why Did The Fixed Exchange Rate System Collapse? Bretton Woods worked well until the late 1960sIt collapsed when huge increases in welfare programs and the Vietnam War were financed by increasing the money supply and causing significant inflationother countries increased the value of their currencies relative to the U.S. dollar in response to speculation the dollar would be devaluedHowever, because the system relied on an economically well managed U.S., when the U.S. began to print money, run high trade deficits, and experience high inflation, the system was strained to the breaking pointthe U.S. dollar came under speculative attackLO1: Describe the historical development of the modern global monetary system.The system of fixed exchange rates established at Bretton Woods worked well until the late 1960’s.The U.S. dollar was the only currency that could be converted into goldThe U.S. dollar served as the reference point for all other currenciesAny pressure to devalue the dollar would cause problems through out the worldFactors that led to the collapse of the fixed exchange system include:President Johnson financed both the Great Society and Vietnam by printing moneyHigh inflation and high spending on importsOn August 8, 1971, President Nixon announced the dollar was no longer convertible to goldCountries agreed to revalue their currencies against the dollarOn March 19, 1972, Japan and most of Europe floated their currenciesIn 1973, Bretton Woods failed because the key currency (dollar) was under speculative attack
18What Was The Jamaica Agreement? A new exchange rate system was established in 1976 at a meeting in JamaicaThe rules that were agreed on then are still in place todayUnder the Jamaican agreementfloating rates were declared acceptablegold was abandoned as a reserve assettotal annual IMF quotas - the amount member countries contribute to the IMF - were increased to $41 billion – today they are about $300 billionLO1: Describe the historical development of the modern global monetary system.
19What Has Happened To Exchange Rates Since 1973? Since 1973, exchange rates have been more volatile and less predictable than they were between 1945 and 1973 because ofthe 1971 and 1979 oil crisesthe loss of confidence in the dollar after U.S. inflation inthe rise in the dollar between 1980 and 1985the partial collapse of the EMS in 1992the 1997 Asian currency crisisthe decline in the dollar from 2001 to 2009LO1: Describe the historical development of the modern global monetary system.
20What Has Happened To Exchange Rates Since 1973? Major Currencies Dollar Index,LO1: Describe the historical development of the modern global monetary system.Country Focus: The U.S. Dollar, Oil Prices, and Recycling Petrodollars explores what oil producing nations are likely to do with the dollars they have earned. Recently, oil prices have surged as a result of higher than expected demand, tight supplies, and perceived geopolitical risks. Since oil is priced in dollars, oil producers have seen their dollar reserves increase.
21Which Is Better – Fixed Rates Or Floating Rates? Floating exchange rates provideMonetary policy autonomyremoving the obligation to maintain exchange rate parity restores monetary control to a governmentAutomatic trade balance adjustmentsunder Bretton Woods, if a country developed a permanent deficit in its balance of trade that could not be corrected by domestic policy, the IMF would have to agree to a currency devaluationLO3: Compare and contrast the differences between a fixed and floating exchange rate system.
22Which Is Better – Fixed Rates Or Floating Rates? But, a fixed exchange rate systemProvides monetary disciplineensures that governments do not expand their money supplies at inflationary ratesMinimizes speculationcauses uncertaintyReduces uncertaintypromotes growth of international trade and investment
23Who Is Right? There is no real agreement as to which system is better We know that a Bretton Woods-style fixed exchange rate regime will not workBut a different kind of fixed exchange rate system might be more enduringcould encourage stability that would facilitate more rapid growth in international trade and investment
24What Type of Exchange Rate System Is In Practice Today? Various exchange rate regimes are followed today14% of IMF members follow a free float policy26% of IMF members follow a managed float system22% of IMF members have no legal tender of their ownex. Euro Zone countriesthe remaining countries use less flexible systems such as pegged arrangements, or adjustable pegsLO4: Identify exchange rate regimes that are used in the world today and why countries adopt different exchange rate regimes.
25What Type of Exchange Rate System Is In Practice Today? Exchange Rate Policies of IMF Members
26What Is A Pegged Rate System? A country following a pegged exchange rate system pegs the value of its currency to that of another major currencypopular among the world’s smaller nationsimposes monetary discipline and leads to low inflationadopting a pegged exchange rate regime can moderate inflationary pressures in a countryLO4: Identify exchange rate regimes that are used in the world today and why countries adopt different exchange rate regimes.
27What Is A Currency Board? Countries using a currency board commit to converting their domestic currency on demand into another currency at a fixed exchange ratethe currency board holds reserves of foreign currency equal at the fixed exchange rate to at least 100% of the domestic currency issuedthe currency board can issue additional domestic notes and coins only when there are foreign exchange reserves to back themLO4: Identify exchange rate regimes that are used in the world today and why countries adopt different exchange rate regimes.
28What Is The Role Of The IMF Today? Today, the IMF focuses on lending money to countries in financial crisisThere are three main types of financial crises:Currency crisisBanking crisisForeign debt crisisLO5: Understand the debate surrounding the role of the IMF in the management of financial crises.
29What Is The Role Of The IMF Today? A currency crisisoccurs when a speculative attack on the exchange value of a currency results in a sharp depreciation in the value of the currency, or forces authorities to expend large volumes of international currency reserves and sharply increase interest rates in order to defend prevailing exchange ratesBrazil 2002
30What Is The Role Of The IMF Today? A banking crisis refers to a situation in which a loss of confidence in the banking system leads to a run on the banks, as individuals and companies withdraw their depositsA foreign debt crisis is a situation in which a country cannot service its foreign debt obligations, whether private sector or government debtGreece and Ireland 2010The Opening Case: Ireland’s Debt Crisis explores the recent debt crisis in Ireland. In 2010, the country found itself unable to meet its obligations, and was forced to accept bailout assistance from the IMF.
31What Was The Mexican Currency Crisis Of 1995? The Mexican currency crisis of 1995 was a result ofhigh Mexican debtsa pegged exchange rate that did not allow for a natural adjustment of pricesTo keep Mexico from defaulting on its debt, the IMF created a $50 billion aid packagerequired tight monetary policy and cuts in public spendingLO5: Understand the debate surrounding the role of the IMF in the management of financial crises.
32What Was The Asian Currency Crisis? The 1997 Southeast Asian financial crisis was caused by events that took place in the previous decade includingAn investment boom - fueled by huge increases in exportsExcess capacity - investments were based on projections of future demand conditionsHigh debt - investments were supported by dollar-based debtsExpanding imports – caused current account deficitsLO5: Understand the debate surrounding the role of the IMF in the management of financial crises.
33What Was The Asian Currency Crisis? By mid-1997, several key Thai financial institutions were on the verge of defaultspeculation against the bahtThailand abandoned the baht peg and allowed the currency to floatThe IMF provided a $17 billion bailout loan packagerequired higher taxes, public spending cuts, privatization of state-owned businesses, and higher interest rates
34What Was The Asian Currency Crisis? Speculation caused other Asian currencies including the Malaysian Ringgit, the Indonesian Rupaih and the Singapore Dollar to fallThese devaluations were mainly driven byexcess investment and high borrowings, much of it in dollar denominated debta deteriorating balance of payments position
35What Was The Asian Currency Crisis? The IMF provided a $37 billion aid package for Indonesiarequired public spending cuts, closure of troubled banks, a balanced budget, and an end to crony capitalismThe IMF provided a $55 billion aid package to South Korearequired a more open banking system and economy, and restraint by chaebol
36How Has The IMF Done?By 2010, the IMF was committing loans to 68 countries in economic and currency crisisAll IMF loan packages require tight macroeconomic and monetary policyHowever, critics worrythe “one-size-fits-all” approach to macroeconomic policy is inappropriate for many countriesthe IMF is exacerbating moral hazard - when people behave recklessly because they know they will be saved if things go wrongthe IMF has become too powerful for an institution without any real mechanism for accountabilityLO5: Understand the debate surrounding the role of the IMF in the management of financial crises.
37How Has The IMF Done?But, as with many debates about international economics, it is not clear who is rightHowever, in recent years, the IMF has started to change its policies and be more flexibleurged countries to adopt fiscal stimulus and monetary easing policies in response to the global financial crisisCountry Focus: Turkey’s and the IMF explores Turkey’s 18th IMF program. In May 2001, the IMF agreed to lend $8 billion to Turkey to help stabilize its economy and halt a sharp slide in the value of its currency. While initially the Turkish government resisted IMF mandates on economic policy, in 2003, the government passed an austerity budget. By 2005, significant progress had been made and today, the country appears to be on track for recovery, with lower inflation rates, an increase in privatization, and a budget surplus.
38What Does The Monetary System Mean For Managers? Managers need to understand how the international monetary system affectsCurrency management - the current system is a managed float - government intervention can influence exchange ratesspeculation can also create volatile movements in exchange ratesLO6: Explain the implications of the global monetary system for currency management and business strategy.
39What Does The Monetary System Mean For Managers? Business strategy - exchange rate movements can have a major impact on the competitive position of businessesneed strategic flexibilityCorporate-government relations - businesses can influence government policy towards the international monetary systemcompanies should promote a system that facilitates international growth and developmentManagement Focus: Airbus and the Euro describes how Airbus is protecting itself from exchange rate fluctuations. French aircraft maker Airbus prices its planes in dollars. However, because over half the company’s costs are in euros, the company has the potential to see significant fluctuations in its earnings if it does not hedge its foreign exchange exposure.