Presentation on theme: "GOLD … Whats Going On? UK Investor Show, April 13, 2012."— Presentation transcript:
GOLD … Whats Going On? UK Investor Show, April 13, 2012
Target 1: Dow : Gold … 2: 1
Target 2: UK House Prices < 100 oz of gold
Target 3: End Of Negative Real Rates CPI = 2.8% RPI = 3.2% Is real inflation higher? Bank Of England Rate 0.5%. Cash loses you c. 3% per year NRR better than last year, but still negative.
Target 4: US gold matches US debt Gold's role "during periods of monetary stress" is to "balance the international balance sheet of the USA". Jim Sinclair
21st January 1980 Sinclair sold his gold, the day it spiked it to $850. The value of US gold ($221bn) exceeded US monetary base ($160bn) by 140%
According to the US Treasury the US has million oz of gold. Fort Knox gold has not been independently audited in 50 years. In his book Good As Gold Chris Weber argues all the gold is not there. Let us assume it is. At $1,500 per oz that gold is worth $392 billion, or $0.392 trillion.
US National Debt is currently almost $16.8 trn US Total Debt is $59trn US Monetary base now = $3 trn
If US gold = 100% US paper, gold price would be $11,494 oz (3trn/261m oz) If US Gold = 140% US paper, gold would be $16,000 oz And rising …
If US were to pay all its $16trn debt with its gold, gold price would be … $17 trn / 261 million =
If US were to pay all its $16trn debt with its gold, gold price would be … $17 trn / 261 million = $65,134 per ounce
In a world awash in unpayable debt … Obsessed with growth Where so-called austerity makes governments unpopular … and unelectable … system that relies on ever-expanding debt to function and grow
Target 5: Fiscal Sanity Returns to Govt. Rates are too low, yet will stay low. Policy-makers always take the path of least resistance, which means they will print. Austerity a sham. Tullett Prebon report shows public spending has hardly been reduced. 1% down on last year. 3.4% UP on Labours last year. Deficit only been cut through tax rises. Do public and media want spending cuts?
Cameron and Osbornes Economic Policy
Target 6 – UK Govt. buys
Can you explain to me why, with currency wars, currency debasement, European turmoil, confiscation in Cyprus, economic and political uncertainty, North Korea etc etc, why gold is behaving like a risk asset ?
Why is gold falling?
Because it is.
In March COT reported Gold short positions reached the highest level in over a decade In early March Gold's Public Opinion reached one of the lowest levels in at least a decade Last week COT reported Silver short positions reached the highest level in almost two decades Last week Silver's Public Opinion reached one of the lowest levels in at least a decade