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Gold and silver – the ultimate FX trades by David Morrison CD08UK.025.051111.

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Presentation on theme: "Gold and silver – the ultimate FX trades by David Morrison CD08UK.025.051111."— Presentation transcript:

1 Gold and silver – the ultimate FX trades by David Morrison CD08UK

2 Disclaimer This presentation should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this for your general information. The views of this author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by this author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments as a result of any information contained in this presentation. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Products and services offered by GFT are provided for general purposes only. Any information provided through use of these products and services should be independently evaluated before any trades are placed. Trading forex, CFDs, and spread bets is risky and not suitable for everyone. All of these products (excluding Binary CFDs and Binary Spread Bets) are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Dont trade more than you can afford to lose. GFT Global Markets UK Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) for forex, CFDs, and Spread Bets. The FSA does not regulate Binary CFDs and Binary Spread Bets. © 2012 Global Futures and Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved.

3 Agenda Golds ascent against individual currencies Gold – bulls versus bears Silver – poised to outperform? The role of central banks

4 Gold in USD The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: Bloomberg

5 Gold in euros The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: Bloomberg

6 Gold in Japanese yen The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: Bloomberg

7 Gold in British pounds The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: Bloomberg

8 Gold in Brazilian reals The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: Bloomberg

9 Gold in Australian dollars The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: Bloomberg

10 Gold in Indian rupees The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: Bloomberg

11 In percentage terms: The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: DealBook® 360 Over the last 12 years, gold has risen: 217% versus AUD 319% versus EUR 334% versus JPY 415% versus GBP 513% versus BRL 560% versus USD 650% versus IDR

12 Gold The case against: A Barbarous Relic Doesnt earn interest Doesnt pay a dividend Storage cost It is hoarded Rally has lasted over 10 years The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate.

13 Gold The bull argument: Safe haven Store of value Medium of exchange Alternative to fiat currencies No one elses liability Still under-owned Inflation-adjusted – to match 1980s highs: $2,500 for gold; $140 for silver The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate.

14 Safe asset shortage? In the future, there will be rising demand for safe assets, but fewer of them will be available, increasing the price for safety in global markets IMF Global Financial Stability Report April 2012 The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate.

15 Safe asset shortage? The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate.

16 Gold – weekly chart The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: DealBook® 360

17 Gold – Daily chart The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: DealBook® 360

18 Silver The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: DealBook® 360 More volatile than gold Industrial metal with inelastic demand Consumed – low recycling rates Investment metal with elastic demand -dependent on economic environment Like gold - a tangible asset without counterparty risk

19 Silver – weekly chart The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: DealBook® 360

20 Silver – Daily chart The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: DealBook® 360

21 Gold:silver ratio The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: DealBook® 360 Natural abundance roughly 1:10 - the ratio apparent in antiquity Current production: around 6 times more silver than gold produced annually Unlike gold, above-ground silver stocks drawn down and used up 1:100 in 1990s – precious metals bear market Currently 1:50/55 Historical average 1:16

22 Chart of Gold : Silver Ratio (Source goldprice.org) The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Source: DealBook® 360

23 Central banks In 2011, central banks net buyers for second successive year Prior to 2009 – CBs net sellers for over 20 years Purchased tonnes in 2011 (up from 77 tonnes in WGC) Largest amount since end of Bretton Woods in 1971 India/China/Russia and other emerging economies Hong Kong exports to China in February up 20% month-on- month The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate.

24 Central banks - Intervention US Federal Reserve - QE1, QE lite, QE2, Operation Twist Nov 2011 – Fed-backed dollar swaps; Bank of Japan intervention Dec 2011 – ECB 489 billion LTRO – 523 banks Feb 2012 – Bank of England – APF raised by £50 billion to £325 billion Feb 2012 – BoJ $129 billion QE. Running total: $825 billion Feb 2012 – FOMC – rates on hold 2014? Feb billion LTRO – 800 banks QE3, LTRO3, BoE, BoJ? Currency debasement The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate.

25 Central bank balance sheets

26 Global money supply The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. This presentation does not constitute a recommendation to follow a particular trading strategy. All trades should be considered carefully with your personal trading strategy, including risk tolerance. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate.

27 Disclaimer This presentation should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this for your general information. The views of this author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by this author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments as a result of any information contained in this presentation. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. Products and services offered by GFT are provided for general purposes only. Any information provided through use of these products and services should be independently evaluated before any trades are placed. Trading forex, CFDs, and spread bets is risky and not suitable for everyone. All of these products (excluding Binary CFDs and Binary Spread Bets) are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Dont trade more than you can afford to lose. GFT Global Markets UK Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) for forex, CFDs, and Spread Bets. The FSA does not regulate Binary CFDs and Binary Spread Bets. © 2012 Global Futures and Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved.


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