Presentation on theme: "Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply."— Presentation transcript:
Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Presented by Michael McGowan JD, CFP ® Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. Usual Disclaimers Apply. These are FFs Opinions. GOLD AND SILVER SHARES, ACT II AAII MEETING, L.A., April 16, 2011
HEADLINE MESSAGE TODAY SAVINGSINS. ESTATE PLAN RESIDENCE RET. PLAN STOCKS BONDS BONDS REAL ESTATE COMMODITIES GOLD, SILVER 20% CASH WINERY, RACING CARS, HORSES... WINERY, RACING CARS, HORSES... " June, 2010 "Buy Low, Sell High" Means Buy Weakness, Sell Strength.
COMMODITIES Ibbotson Commodities Cycles Report. [BRIC] Until 2006, Miners Still Forward Selling Cu! Ore = "Minerals Mineable Profitably." Feasibility Study Needed for Bank Loans. Major Miners Hunt Jrs. 10 Years to Production. Then 10 Year Life…
FOGHORN ON GOLD INVESTING Investing is About Probabilities, About "Animal Spirits, And Change! M.P.T. - 80% of Returns Come From Secular Trend (Bull/Bear). A Secular Bull Market Trend Runs On Supply/Demand Imbalance Anticipation. Study Portfolio Managers Who've Made Money. To Participate: Broker/Funds, Newsletters, Self.
"GOLD IS MONEY," JP MORGAN Is Sturdy/Inert Chemically. Doesn't Oxidize. Is Alloyable. Animals, Vegetables Arent. Is Divisible. Retains Properties. Is Ductile. Can be Stretched. Is Portable. Travels; No Ones Obligation. Is Recognizable. Assayable,Weighable. Is Scarce. High Unit Value. (BUT, Inconvenient.) Its a SADD PRS Without Gold. Memory Tip: Its a SADD PRS Without Gold.
EVERYDAY REFERENCES TO GOLD California: Golden State A Golden Age Gold Rush Heart of Gold Midas Golden Touch The Golden Rule Jason & Golden Fleece A Gold Credit Card Golden Parachute Gold Coast Golden Boy Gold-Digger Olympcs,Oscar,Tony GGlobes, Emmy State House Roof A Gold Record Alka Seltzer Gold Amstel Gold Beer Hyatt Gold Passport Gold Medal Flour Honda Gold Wing Cent.-21, Gold Std. McD Golden Arches Goldmember Song+ Movies: Die Hard 3+
DOLLAR DOWN GOLD UP DOLLAR DOWN GOLD UP
REASONS FOR PM BULL MARKET BOnd Market Peak. [Real Rates - Negative] COmmodities in Bull Market. DOllar Sinking/ Euros? Yen? COnfidence in Equities Down. Trade Deficit: $700 Billion, Rising. Deficit (Federal)-Monetary Inflation. Debts: Govts, Banks, Individuals=Enormous. Demand/Supply Gap of PMs Expanding. Derivatives - $1Q, Unfunded, Overvalued. Global Issues: Wars, RE, Etc...Au=Insurance.
HOW NOT TO BUY GOLD Numismatic Coins: Expertise. Numismatic Coins: Expertise. TV, EBay Gold: Big Mark-Ups. TV, EBay Gold: Big Mark-Ups. Jewelry: 10% Gold? Jewelry: 10% Gold? (No Envelope Sales Either.) (No Envelope Sales Either.) Bars: Real or Tungsten? Bars: Real or Tungsten? Paper: GLD, SLV, Wts-No! Paper: GLD, SLV, Wts-No! Futures: 80% Investors Lose. Futures: 80% Investors Lose. ?
GOLD DEFENSE: PHYSICAL PMs COINS Are Free From Counterparty Risk. Any Recent Date, Bullion Coins; 5%. Eagles, Dimes Maples, Libertads. No Commemoratives,"Storage." No Commemoratives,"Storage." Not GLD, SLV (ETFs) Avoid! Not GLD, SLV (ETFs) Avoid! Coins Are Like Wine Cellar; Dont Trade Em! Visit: Long Beach Coin Show,
GOLD OFFENSE: PM SHARES Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism, Grow on Skepticism, Mature on Optimism, And Die on Euphoria. Sir John Templeton Secular Bull = P/E's Up. Relative Perf. Ok. Secular Bear=P/E's Down. Need Absolute Perf Market: 2nd of 3 Acts; Rise to $3k+/Oz. Buy, Hold Bricks; Trade Specs. Mr. Darcy £10k.
BULL MARKETS RUN IN 3 ACTS
PRECIOUS METAL RESOURCES FREE: NOT FREE: hardrockanalyst.com Precious Metal Investing for Dummies, '08 Mining Explained, N.M. FFs Guide to Gold, 08
GSA 10 YEAR TRACK RECORD See: Sample Letter Top Ten, of April See: Sample Letter Top Ten, of April 2009.
PM GEOLOGY TERMINOLOGY Reserves: Defined by Ni /JORC. OP/Heap Leaching: Cheapest. Oxides: Cheapest Ore (Weathered). Strip Ratio of 1.5 to 1 = 1.5 Tons of Overburden Removed Above Ore. High Grading: When Ore Prices Low, Miners Dig High Grade Ore Only. Profits = Cash Flow, Au Price, Buyout.
JUNIOR MINING STOCKS - FULP 1. Politically Safe, Flagship Project.[200k Oz/Y.] 2. [Usually Au & Ag-OP, Oxides, HL, High Grade] 3. Experienced, Honest People. 4. Tight Share Structure.(<100M Shr) 5. Cashed Up & Access to Financing. 6. Professional Website, Board. 7. "Undervalued" [& 3rd Party Eval.] of: Aug.25,08, Dec.15,08, Feb.23,09, Dec.6,'10. Mr. DYODD
"MINING STOCKS ARE BURNING MATCHES." DOUG CASEY
GOLD MINING SPECULATIONS GoldCorp (GG) $43, 12 Mines, GoldCorp (GG) $43, 12 Mines, 2.7M Oz. Prod. in '11. Yamana (AUY) $12, 3 Mines, Yamana (AUY) $12, 3 Mines, 1 M+ Oz. Brazil Production. New Gold (NGD) $10, 350k Oz, New Gold (NGD) $10, 350k Oz, 3 Mines, Growing, Low Cost. Gold Resource (GORO) $25, 50k Oz, Mex. Producer, Div. Gold Resource (GORO) $25, 50k Oz, Mex. Producer, Div. Premier Gold (PIRGF.PK) $7, Premier Gold (PIRGF.PK) $7, Ewan Downie, Red Lake. Crocodile Mining (CROCF.PK) Crocodile Mining (CROCF.PK) $1, Aus, 100k+ Production.
PMs ARE ACTIVELY MANAGED Gold Anti-Trust Action Comm., John Embry, Sprott.com, James Turk, goldmoney.com, Doug Casey, caseyresearch.com, Harry Schultz, Consultant, Richard Russell, Dow Theory, Paul Volcker Interview, Gulf Cooperation Council, Vice Chair, Russian Central Bank, Credit Agricole Report, Citicorp Equities Report, Don Coxe, Global Strategist, BMO, ETC. (Strong Dollar Policy)
"ONLY A FOOL DISBELIEVES IN GOLD" "ONLY A FOOL DISBELIEVES IN GOLD" Secular Gold Bull Market, 10 Years Old, Growing. You Will Not Get Happy! You Will Get Happy. (Every Fiat Currency- exc. dollar- Has Died. Every PM Coin Ever Minted is Still Really Valuable.)
UNDERSTANDING SILVER Industrial & Monetary Metal. Highest Electrical Conductivity. Highest Solar Reflectiveness. 2/3 Ag Comes from Gold, Cu, Zn, Pb Mines. US Strategic Stockpile Depleted 11/27/ M Oz. Mined 2008, Demand 800M Oz. Little Brother Trading Pattern With Gold. Seasonality: Runs Up From Sept. to May...
SUGGESTED PM SPECULATION "You Cant Kiss Em All," But Kiss At Least 5 Names. 1. Coins; Then Bullion Funds: CEF, PHYS Share ETF: GDX, GDXJ, GLDX, SIL Income: GGN (Yield: 14 Cents a Month) 2. Royalty: RGLD, SLW, FNNVF Majors: GG, PAAS, AUY, [Tier 2, 3-GSA Top Ten, Exc. PAAS, GPL.] 3. Producers: GORO, NGD, MFN, GPL 4. Dev/Explorers: TC, PIRGF, AUNFF (Start at Bottom of Pyramid; Work Your Way Up.)