Presentation on theme: "Chapter 21 International Financial Management Chapter 2 The history of money and finance Michael Connolly School of Business Administration, University."— Presentation transcript:
Chapter 2Page 2 Summary The role of money Money and exchange rates The history of monies Foreign exchange history Banks and banking The international monetary institutions History of stock exchanges
Chapter 2Page 3 The role of money Money serves three important roles in an economy: It is a unit of account – a yardstick by which to measure the value of goods and assets. A medium of exchange to facilitate transactions, avoiding barter. A store of value in which to temporarily hold liquid wealth.
Chapter 2Page 4 Money and exchange rates The Bank of England and the Banque de France, had gold windows where they bought and sold gold at a fixed currency price in the 19th century. In doing so, their currency rates were fixed. For example, if the Bank of England sets ten pounds per ounce of gold as the buy/sell rate and the Banque of France 100 francs, the equilibrium exchange rate is set at 100 francs per 10 pounds or 10 francs a pound. Arbitrage in gold kept the exchange rates within a narrow band of gold points. Lets say the exchange rate falls to 9.5 francs a pound. A gold arbitrageur purchases 10 pounds for 95 francs, presents the 10 pounds to the Bank of England gold window in exchange for an ounce of gold. The arbitrageur then insures and ships the gold to the Banque de France, selling it for 100 francs, pocketing 5 francs less insurance and shipping as profit.
Chapter 2Page 5 Money and exchange rates With floating exchange rates, the exchange rate moves roughly according to the relative purchasing power of monies. This is known as purchasing power parity. Countries with high money growth experience higher rates of inflation and consequently, Greater depreciations in their exchange rate. A fixed exchange rate serves as a monetary anchor, while a floating exchange rate permits independent money growth.
Chapter 2Page 6 The history of monies Ancient Chinese monies: Circa BC
Chapter 2Page 7 The history of monies Ancient Chinese monies: copper coins used before 221 BC Coin issued in 221 BC by the Qin Dynasty, the first feudal dynasty to unify China and its coins.
Chapter 2Page 8 The history of monies The Lydian Lions Head: circa BC is thought by many to be the worlds first coin. It was made of electrum, a precious alloy of gold and silver that consisting of about 54 percent gold, 44 percent silver, and 2 percent copper.
Chapter 2Page 9 The history of monies Ancient Chinese monies: The Yibi Circa 500BC Made of copper and known as the creeping ant-nose coin.
Chapter 2Page 10 The history of monies Ancient Chinese monies: The Guinian (Ghost face) copper coin circa B.C 400 to 300 Both the Yibi and the Guinian coin have the shape of shells, the earliest currency in China.
Chapter 2Page 11 The history of monies Ancient Chinese monies: Issued in 621 AD under the Tang Dynasty.
Chapter 2Page 12 The history of monies Ancient Chinese monies: The first uniform paper money in the world, the Jiaozi, issued in 1023 under the Song Dynasty.
Chapter 2Page 13 The history of monies The first world money, the Spanish silver dollar or pieces of eight minted in Spain, Mexico and Peru. The Spanish peso contained troy ounce ( grams) pure silver and was also used as domestic money in Asia, Latin America, America and Europe.
Chapter 2Page 14 The history of monies The last paper monies of the feudal dynasties: 1875 to1908
Chapter 2Page 15 Seigniorage The early definitions of seigniorage referred to the difference in the value of a money, and its mint costs. For example, say a silver coin has value $10 and its silver content and cost of manufacture is only 50 cents, then seigniorage is $9.50. Seigniorage on paper money is generally greater due to the higher nominal values as money and the lower costs of printing in terms of paper, ink, anti-counterfeit measures such as filaments, water marks, color changing ink and the like.
Chapter 2Page 16 Seigniorage For example the US $100 bill costs about 12 cents to manufacture. Consequently seigniorage is $ These profits to the Treasury can be spent, just as with any other tax receipt. The issue of money is usually the right of the sovereign government (i.e. the seigneur), so that the right to strike money has historically been used to finance wars and emergency expenditures by the printing press.
Chapter 2Page 17 Seigniorage More formally, seigniorage is the residual finance of any fiscal deficit that is not completely covered by new borrowing. That is: Where dM/dt is new seigniorage, (G-T) the fiscal and quasi-fiscal deficit, dB/dt new domestic borrowing, and dB*/dt new foreign borrowing.
Chapter 2Page 18 Seigniorage It is often instructive to express new seigniorage as a percentage of GDP, that is: When deficits become large as a percent of GDP, say above 5 or 6%, it may become difficult to finance it by new borrowing, so resort to the printing press may take place, causing high inflation.
Chapter 2Page 19 Seigniorage There are, however, limits as to the amount of seigniorage finance may take place. This is because the demand for money collapses when inflation is high, so that real seigniorage collections, ΔM/P, decline after a certain point, yielding what is known as a Laffer curve in seigniorage.
Chapter 2Page 20 Seigniorage 100 Real seigniorage revenue as a percent of real money balances Seigniorage tax rate (%) % 13.8% Between 1952 and 1995, China has issued new seigniorage at a 14.6% rate, collecting 13.8% in new real seigniorage revenue. Note: Technically speaking, the seigniorage tax rate is so that in the limit it approaches 1 or 100% when money growth approaches infinity. CHINA
Chapter 2Page 21 Seigniorage 100 Real seigniorage revenue per annum as a percent of real money balances Seigniorage tax rate (%) 0 6.7% 3.1% USA , averages.
Chapter 2Page 22 Seigniorage 100 Real seigniorage revenue as a percent of income Seigniorage tax rate (%) % 1.2% As a percent of GDP (Y), this represents an annual collections rate of 1.2% of GDP in China from 1952 to CHINA
Chapter 2Page 23 Seigniorage 100 Real seigniorage revenue as a percent of annual income Seigniorage tax rate (%) 0 6.7% 0.36% As a percent of GDP (Y), this represents an annual collections rate of 0.36% of GDP in the United States from 1960 to USA
Chapter 2Page 24 The revenue maximizing rate of seigniorage In equilibrium, money demand, L, equals money supply, M. The demand for money, however, is inversely related to its rate of seigniorage issue (and inflation), so that we may write real revenue as determined by the rate of seigniorage issue times real money balances. For simplicity, define so that the real revenue collected from seigniorage is: Which is the money demand equation according to Philip Cagan, The Monetary Dynamics of Inflation, in Milton Friedman, editor Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, Chicago: University of Chicago Press k is a constantη is the income elasticity of demand for money y is real GDP α is the semi-elasticity of the demand for money with respect to the rate of seigniorage issue
Chapter 2Page 25 The revenue maximizing rate of seigniorage The rate of seigniorage issue that maximizes real revenue from seigniorage is given by: Or Which yields the revenue maximizing issue of seigniorage equal to: The greater the semi-elasticity of demand for money, the lower is the revenue maximizing rate of inflation, as illustrated graphically.
Chapter 2Page 26 Seigniorage The reason why a relatively high percent of seigniorage can be collected in China is due firstly, to the high real rate of growth in income, leading to increased demand for money, and secondly to a high income elasticity of demand for money. Thus, virtually no inflation has resulted.
Chapter 2Page 27 Foreign exchange history Bills of exchange were used primarily in international trade, and is a written order by one person to pay another a specific sum on a specific date sometime in the future. Since carrying large amounts of coins was risky, bills of exchange were used in order to facilitate currency and trade transactions. The bill of exchange allowed trade to take place without the use of coinage, a precursor of the modern letter of credit (L/C).
Chapter 2Page 28 Foreign exchange history Furthermore, the bills were traded as financial instruments in trade fairs. They were discounted and converted into foreign exchange. The trade fairs were the precursors of modern stock and foreign exchanges. An important feature of the foreign exchange market was an interest-bearing loan disguised as a foreign exchange transaction. Merchants and financiers were able to make loans evading usury laws using a sequence of two bill transactions – a precursor of todays foreign exchange swap.
Chapter 2Page 29 Foreign exchange history An important 16th century development was the appearance of a system of betting on future exchange rates: a non-deliverable forward market. The betters made forecasts on future exchange rates. The difference between the realized rate and the forecasted rate determined who won the bet and how much the loser would pay the winner. This form of forward exchange still exists today in the form of non-deliverable futures (NDFs) in the Chinese yuan (formally Renminbi, the Peoples Currency) in Singapore and Hong Kong.
Chapter 2Page 30 Foreign exchange history The 1944 Bretton Woods sytem of pegged but adjustable exchange rates triggered foreign exchange intervention in spot markets to maintain exchange rates near their par values. Floating exchange rates began in the early 1970s, and global markets were being integrated. The resulting need of multinational businesses to hedge their currency exposures caused the rapid growth of foreign exchange trading in the 1980s and 1990s.
Chapter 2Page 31 Foreign exchange history London is still by far the largest FOREX market today in terms of daily foreign exchange turnover. In 2004, daily turnover net of double-counting on the London foreign exchange market was a staggering $753 billion in currency spots, swaps, forwards and options. This represents 31% of daily foreign exchange transactions, compared to 19% in the United States, and 8% in Japan.
Chapter 2Page 32 Banks and banking The first modern bank was the Bank of Amsterdam, founded in The Amsterdam bank was quickly followed by other major cities. The Bank of Hamburg was formed in 1619 and the Bank of Sweden in Sweden issued the first European paper bank notes in 1661.
Chapter 2Page 33 Banks and banking The Bank of England was founded in 1694 as a commercial bank by William Paterson with the right to issue notes up to the amount of its capital, initially £1.2 million. It was nationalized by Parliament in The shareholders received compensation and the Bank of England thereafter ceased its private business, becoming the banker of government
Chapter 2Page 34 Banks and banking Since 1977, The Bank of England has the responsibility for setting monetary policy. Prudential oversight of the British commercial banking system was simultaneously transferred to the Securities and Investments Board.
Chapter 2Page 35 Banks and banking In the United States, the Federal Reserve Act established the Federal Reserve System (the FED) in 1913 with 12 districts. The Federal Reserve Banks provide liquidity, clear transactions, and control the money supply. The FED was established primarily as a reserve institution, a lender of last resort to prevent bank runs and liquidity crises. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insuring deposits was begun in March 1933.
Chapter 2Page 36 The international monetary institutions The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was established in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference in New Hampshire. Its purpose was to establish orderly exchange rate arrangements based on a par value system, to eliminate exchange controls, and to provide temporary short term balance of payments assistance via conditional loans to member countries that are short of foreign exchange reserves.
Chapter 2Page 37 The international monetary institutions The World Bank, a sister institution of the IMF created in 1944 at the Bretton Woods Conference initially made long term development loans for projects such as dams, airports, rubber and concrete production, water systems, and the like. It got involved in Structural Adjustment Loans (SALs) in the 1990s in tandem with the IMF requiring structural adjustments to economic policy. This could mean privatization of state enterprises, lifting price and exchange controls, and improving monetary and fiscal policies, for instance.
Chapter 2Page 38 The international monetary institutions The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is often referred to as the bank of central banks. Located in Basel, Switzerland, It was established May 17, 1930 at the Hague convention. As such, it is the oldest international monetary organization. It does not do business with private individuals or corporations; only with central banks and international institutions.
Chapter 2Page 39 The history of the stock exchanges The New York Stock Exchange established May 17, 1792 on Wall Street. Traders met at the old wooden wall, no longer in existence, but giving its name to the street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) started out with 12 stocks in October Only General Electric remains of the original twelve. The S&P 500 Index covers the 500 most widely held companies.
Chapter 2Page 40 The history of the stock exchanges The London Stock Exchange was established in 1773, formerly Jonathans Coffee House where trades met. Trading has since moved off the floor with the introduction of the Stock Exchange Automated Quotations (SEAQ) system. The Footsie 100 Index is the Financial Times Stock Exchange Index of the 100 largest companies listed on the London Stock Exchange.
Chapter 2Page 41 The history of the stock exchanges The Tokyo Stock Exchange was established on May 15, Japan's Nikkei 225 Index is an average of stock market prices similar to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Paris Bourse was established in Paris by the order of the Royal council in In 1986, the futures exchange – Le MATIF - was established. The CAC 40 Index is the acronym for Compagnie des Agents de Change 40 Index, 40 French companies listed on the Paris Stock Exchange.
Chapter 2Page 42 The history of the stock exchanges The Frankfurt Stock Exchange dates from the 9th century when trade fairs were authorized. In 1585 it was organized as a bourse to fix exchange rates and by 1894 had became a formal stock exchange. Its main index, the DAX consists of the 30 largest issues traded on the exchange.
Chapter 2Page 43 The history of the stock exchanges The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) was founded in 1904, mainly dealing in rubber shares. The Japanese occupation brought an end to its operations. The modern Shanghai Stock Exchange was founded in 1990 but suffers from transparency, disclosure and monitoring issues that have put it into a serious slump from which it is just now recovering. The Shanghai Composite Index is a composite of hard-currency B shares sold to foreigners and yuan-denominated A shares sold to Chinese.
Chapter 2Page 44 The history of the stock exchanges The performances of the international stock markets indices are related. In fact, this is one aspect of the increased globalization of international trade and finance. The following table reports the correlation between the monthly real rates of return on major world stock indices
Chapter 2Page 45 The history of the stock exchanges Correlations between the monthly real rates of return of major stock indices: ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). * Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).
Chapter 2Page 46 Conclusion Money serves as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Different monies must be converted into the same unit of account by the exchange rate in order to compare prices and rates of return. This currency conversion gives rise to foreign exchange risk in investing and operating internationally. The foreign exchange markets have arisen to deal with spot and forward transactions in different monies, as well as currency options to either hedge or speculate.
Chapter 2Page 47 Conclusion The largest FOREX market remains London. accounting for 31% of daily turnover in the foreign exchanges. The exchange costs on the FOREX market are mainly the difference between the ask and the bid price of foreign currency – the bid- ask spread – as well as any commission associated with the conversion. These costs are not insignificant, amounting to approximately a billion USD daily.
Chapter 2Page 48 Conclusion There is increasing financial integration in the world financial markets, making for a more efficient distribution of worldwide finance. The adoption of the euro by twelve countries as the same currency has removed exchange rate risk and conversion costs from the financial landscape of Europe.
Chapter 2Page 49 Conclusion The issue of seigniorage has been the root of all evils in many emerging markets, especially developing countries in Latin America and Africa. Money has become worthless, so that currency reforms – a change of the monetary unit – have been necessary in Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Mexico and Ecuador (which has officially dollarized) It is often the finance of last resort when a government runs a high fiscal deficit it cannot finance by borrowing at home and abroad. Its last resort is to print money – the printing press. China and the United States have since the 1950s restrained the issue of seigniorage and consequently have had low inflation. At the same time, Chinas high income elasticity of demand for money and its high growth rate have allowed 1.2% of GDP to be collected as seigniorage revenues.