Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

The Strategic Case for Gold Amsterdam 11 October 2009

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "The Strategic Case for Gold Amsterdam 11 October 2009"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Strategic Case for Gold Amsterdam 11 October 2009

2 Disclaimer The information and opinions contained in this presentation have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. This presentation does not purport to make any recommendation or provide investment advice to the effect that any gold related transaction is appropriate for all investment objectives, financial situations or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decisions investors should seek advice from their advisers on whether any part of this presentation is appropriate to their specific circumstances. This presentation is not, and should not be construed as, an offer or solicitation to buy or sell gold or any gold related products. Expressions of opinion are those of the World Gold Council only and are subject to change without notice.

3 Introducing World Gold Council
Funded by the world’s leading gold mining companies We promote the use of gold in all its forms through marketing activities in major international markets. Offices in key consuming countries: India China Middle East United States MEMBERS Agnico Eagle AngloGold Ashanti Barrick Gold Corporation Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation Compania de Minas Buenaventura Eldorado Gold Goldcorp Gold Fields Limited Harmony IAM Gold Kinross Gold Corporation Newmont Mining Corporation Peter Hambro Mining Yamana Gold ASSOCIATES Cedimin China National Gold Corporation The Hutti Gold Mines Company Kahama Mining Minera Yanacocha S.R.L. Mitsubishi Materials Corporation Royal Gold Inc.

4 Outline Demand and supply fundamentals – resilient demand and constrained supply The outlook Key investment attributes A hedge against inflation A hedge against dollar movements A safe haven and insurance policy A diversifier

5 Demand and Supply Fundamentals

6 Q2 tonnage down 9% on Q2 2008

7 Price volatility a constraint on jewellery demand

8 China the lone positive jewellery story

9 A breakdown of investment demand
Tonnes, Q2’08 Tonnes, Q2’09 % change Identifiable investment 151.9 222.4 46 Net retail investment 147.9 165.7 12 ETFs and similar 4.0 56.7 1315 “Inferred investment” 10.2 195.1 1657 “Total” investment 162.1 417.4 157 Source: GFMS

10 European flows remain very buoyant

11 ETF flows generally long term in nature

12 Share of identifiable demand
Source: GFMS

13 Total Q2 supply down 23% on Q1 2009

14 Net central bank sales have continued to reduce

15 The Strategic Investment Case for Gold

16 Why gold? A safe haven and form of insurance
A simple asset No default risk No counterparty risk Liquid Gold’s history As a means of exchange As the centre of the global monetary system

17 Gold is a hedge against inflation uncertainty
Inflation or deflation? Gold is a long run hedge against inflation Yet, a period of deflation suggests ongoing economic uncertainty, so safe haven flows would remain underpinned Medium to longer term, inflation is a significant risk

18 Gold is a long run hedge against the US dollar

19 Correlations, weekly returns 3 years ending June 2009
Gold is a diversifier Correlations, weekly returns 3 years ending June 2009 Gold 1.00 FTSE 100 -0.22 DAX 30 -0.20 S&P500 -0.10 MSCI World Ex UK -0.28 LB /BarCap Global Treasuries Index , TR, GBP 0.02 LB/BarCap Global Treasuries Index, TR, Euro -0.01 Euribor, 3 month 0.01 UK Lending Rate, 3 month 0.03 Red text denotes that correlation coefficient is not significantly different from zero. Violet text denotes that correlation coefficient is negative (5% level of significance). Data: Global Insight, Lehman Bros., WGC

20 Gold is not particularly volatile
Average 22 Day Volatility, 1 August 2007 – 31 October 2009(%) Oil 50.1 Silver 41.2 Palladium 36.1 GSCI Index 32.8 Nikkei 31.7 Platinum 31.2 FTSE 27.4 Gold 23.8 Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index 20.3

21 where does gold fit into a portfolio?

22 Results with gold added

23 Over and above a commodity basket
Optimal Portfolios Composition Map 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% 5.4% 6.0% 6.7% 7.3% 8.0% 8.8% 9.6% 10.5% 11.4% volatility allocation UK Gilts Short UK Gilts Medium UK Gilts Long Global Bonds UK Equities Europe Ex UK Equities North American Equities Pacific Equities Gold Commodities

24 Summary The demand for gold has shown considerable resilience across the economic cycle The three sectors provide a source of balance The outlook for supply remains constrained High levels of uncertainty – economic, inflation, currency – are supportive for gold Gold’s biggest strength is its diversification properties - the focus on diversification and risk management are expected to continue

25 Questions?

Download ppt "The Strategic Case for Gold Amsterdam 11 October 2009"

Similar presentations

Ads by Google