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Impact of Sequestration on Commercial Airlines and Business Aviation Dr. Tulinda Larsen Vice President Mobile. +1 (443) 510-3566.

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Presentation on theme: "Impact of Sequestration on Commercial Airlines and Business Aviation Dr. Tulinda Larsen Vice President Mobile. +1 (443) 510-3566."— Presentation transcript:

1 Impact of Sequestration on Commercial Airlines and Business Aviation Dr. Tulinda Larsen Vice President tulinda@masflight.com Mobile. +1 (443) 510-3566 Courtney Jones Hrycay Vice President, Business Development courtney@masflight.com Tel: +1 617-283-9668 4833 Rugby Avenue, Suite 301 Bethesda, Maryland 20814 www.masflight.com March 28, 2013

2 Executive Summary This study analyzes three impacts on commercial and business aviation –FAA announced closure of 149 airport towers 55 airports with scheduled service –1,500 scheduled weekly flights (passenger and cargo) 10,600 weekly flights –6,500 Part 91/125 weekly flights –4,100 Part 135/121 weekly flights –CBP proposed reduction of nighttime services to minimize overtime 27 U.S. airports have international arrivals between 10pm and 6am 9,800 international flights into U.S. airports arrived at night in 1Q2013 1.8 million seats @ 80% LF ~ 1.5 million passengers affected quarterly –TSA potential reductions between 10pm-6am 26,000 Passenger flights (based on January 2013) 12,000 Cargo flights 6,000 Business/General Aviation flights EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3 What is Sequestration? Mandatory across-the-board federal spending cuts Called for in 2011 congressional legislation if other deficit-reduction measures not enacted Initial round of automatic budget cuts to federal agencies has begun –8% reduction in 2013 Sequestration will cut defense and non-defense programs by $1 trillion over nine years Unless Congress changes the law passed in 2011, the budget cuts will have a lasting impact over 9 years DEFINITIONS

4 Sequestration Impacts on Aviation AVIATION Many programs not subject to cuts Airport Improvement Program Facilities and Equipment Research Closing 149 control towers Other staff reductions expected Customs & Border Patrol proposes reducing overtime by limiting overnight services TSA hiring freeze Up to an additional 1,000 vacancies by Memorial Day Weekend Up to 2,600 vacancies by the end of the fiscal year Federal Aviation Administration Department of Homeland Security

5 FAA Announced 149 Tower Closures 55 with scheduled passenger airline service –14 EAS 10,600 weekly flights on a filed flight plan (excludes VFR and local traffic) –6,500 Part 91/125 weekly flights –4,100 Part 135/121 weekly flights TOWER CLOSINGS Dots indicate tower closures; Red dots are airports with scheduled service Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysis; gcmap.com Note: Based on scheduled service March 1 – 7, 2013; scheduled service includes scheduled charter flights, cargo flights, and passenger flights FAA Tower Closings

6 The 55 Airports are Served by 15 Airlines TOWER CLOSINGS Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysis Note: Based on schedules for March 1 – March 7, 2013 Other airlines include Aeromexico, Alaska Airlines, Cape Air, Allegiant Air, Great Lakes Airlines, Frontier Airlines, Spirit Airlines, ExecAir

7 Many of the affected airports could have 10+ impacted flights per hour at peak times TOWER CLOSINGS Source: ASDI radar data – Part 91/151 flying and Part 135/121 flying – March 1-7, 2013; masFlight analysis Note: Average daily operations based on 5-day week

8 Impact of Tower Closures What does it mean for a tower to close? –A tower closure does not mean the airport will be closed. –Rather, pilots will face arrival and departure delays, particularly during bad weather conditions, as regional air traffic control facilities (located away from the airport) sequence and meter arrivals and departure clearances to maintain aircraft separation. –masFlight expects that the impact on delays and congestion will be substantial, as some of the impacted airports have as many as 10 flights per hour during peak times. TOWER CLOSINGS

9 CBP Proposed Overtime Reduction Will Impact Overnight Passenger Flights 27 US airports have overnight international passenger flight arrivals CUSTOM & BORDER PATROL Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysis Note: Based on schedules for January 1 – March 31, 2013; overnight defined as 10pm-6am; excludes flights arriving from international airports with pre-clearance facilities Airports with Scheduled Overnight International Passenger Flight Arrivals

10 International Arriving Flights Potentially Will Impact 1.5M Passengers / Quarter 9,800 flights with 1.8M seats @ 80% LF = 1.5M passengers impacted CUSTOM & BORDER PATROL Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysis Note: Based on schedules for January 1 – March 31, 2013; excludes flights arriving from airports with pre-clearance facilities

11 JFK, Miami, Guam and Newark Will Face the Greatest Impact of CBP Cutbacks CUSTOM & BORDER PATROL Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysis Note: Based on schedules for January 1 – March 31, 2013; excludes flights arriving from airports with pre-clearance facilities

12 TSA Cutbacks Would Impact Late Night and Early Morning Flights TSA Source: OAG Schedules; masFlight analysis Note: Based on schedules for January 2013

13 Nearly 18,000 Cargo and Business Aviation Flights Operate Overnight TSA Source: FAA; masFlight analysis Note: Based on FAA data for January 1 – January 31, 2013

14 Conclusions masFlight concludes that sequestration impacts commercial and business aviation on three levels: –149 tower closures will lead to arrival and departure delays –Significant customs wait times and for more than 1.5 million passengers (quarterly) held on aircraft or flights rescheduled until customs agents begin their scheduled morning shifts. –Each month, over 26,000 passenger flights and 18,000 cargo / business aviation flights depart U.S. airports between 10pm to 6am, thus reduced TSA overnight staffing could have a widespread impact on late- night and early morning departures across the country. CONCLUSIONS

15 Reliable gate-to-gate flight records Global data footprint Real-time (within 30 min) and historical (from 2009) analysis Multisource linked data: schedules, gates, delay/cancellation, and weather Designed for operations, planning and research across airports, airlines and alliances Searchable, usable information via web app, database connection, or customized solution What is masFlight? WHAT WE DO Global aviation operations data platform

16 Our Platform OUR PLATFORM Multisource, integrated airline operations data Our platform shows where, when and why problems occur Benchmark competitors and alliance partners Examine diversions, cancellations, delays and determine root causes Deep-dive into airport gates, taxi times, and runway patterns Analyze air space usage and air traffic management Planned Flight Schedules Multisource Flight Status Global Weather Data and Maps Airline Ops Data U.S. Radar Data Airline Fleet Information Airport Gate & Terminal Data Airport Runway Data Key Partners and Suppliers:

17 masFlight Team Deep experience in aviation analytics and software development Joshua Marks CEO Experience in software startups (Virtualis, VelociGen, Fonality) and airlines (MAXjet, American, Delta, Allegiant and Spirit). MBA and BA from Harvard. Licensed pilot. Rodrigo Navarro Chief Technology Officer Systems engineer and cloud data expert with 20 years experience in IT development and ops management. Managed global operations, Sybase. PMM from Stanford GSB, MBA and BS from Universidad del Norte. Edmund Otubuah Director of Aviation Products Operations research and planning at JetBlue, including data collection, analytics and management reporting. Additional experience in marketing metrics and measurements. BS from Embry Riddle. Licensed pilot. TEAM OVERVIEW Tulinda Larsen VP Sales and Marketing 30 years experience developing, selling and marketing aviation data and software solutions. Managing director of airline ops consulting group. Doctorate, UMUC. MA and BA from George Washington. Licensed pilot. Courtney Jones Hrycay VP Business Development Operations research expert with airline management experience. Operations analysis at JetBlue and Southwest. Aviation, aerospace & defense consultant at Oliver Wyman. MBA from MIT Sloan, BSE from Princeton University. Pete West VP Government and Public Affairs Experienced government and public affairs executive for Delta Air Lines, National Business Aviation Association and the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) / Joint Planning Development Office. BA political science from Davidson College.

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