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Existing & Future Earthquake Information Systems Ken Hudnut USGS, Pasadena LA Financial Services Sector Regional Recovery Coalition Meeting 17 November.

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Presentation on theme: "Existing & Future Earthquake Information Systems Ken Hudnut USGS, Pasadena LA Financial Services Sector Regional Recovery Coalition Meeting 17 November."— Presentation transcript:

1 Existing & Future Earthquake Information Systems Ken Hudnut USGS, Pasadena LA Financial Services Sector Regional Recovery Coalition Meeting 17 November 2005, Los Angeles

2 Southern California is the nations most dangerous place for earthquakes - why? Since Northridge weve built state-of-the-art earthquake monitoring Arrays. Crucible for technology and earthquake research within SoCals natural laboratory

3 San Andreas fault 35 mm/yr slip rate; >70% of plate motion 1685, 1857 eqs SoCal is now well wired Likely source of most future Big Ones Fault physics experiment GPS/INS in near-field ALSM & DG scan net Great place to test EEW Build zipper arrays Cholame - Simmler Coachella Valley

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6 Statewide Monitoring Urban Strong Motion2260 Broadband + Strong Motion480 Short Period + Strong Motion286 Analog Short Period2913 Borehole110 Geotechnical Arrays60 Buildings221 Bridges70 Dams26 Others13

7 The CISN Founding Members –OES –USGS –CGS –UC Berkeley –Caltech Contributing Members –Other Universities –Regional Utilities –Other Gov. Agencies ANSS Member –CA Component of Nationwide Initiative

8 Products since the 1930s: Magnitude & Location Seismograms Epicenter

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10 ShakeMap available for every California earthquake over M3.5 within 10 minutes What are the effects of the earthquake? Should we respond? What level of response? Loss estimation?

11 CISN Display – Web-based Products URLs it provides –Waveform GIFs –Focal Mechanisms/ Moment Tensors –CIIM pages (Felt Reports) –ShakeMap –Station Lists –Tsunami Alerts –Aftershock Forecasts –HAZUS Input files –Engineering Internet Quick Reports*

12 Warning of imminent earthquake shaking Strong shaking travels at 2 miles/sec. Future - Earthquake Early Warning

13 GPS network infra- structure forms a foundation for real-time structural damage detection and response Telemetry upgrades Algorithm develop- ment and testing Implementation

14 San Andreas - place two bets both ~120 km from Los Angeles (LA) Coachella Valley segment is ~60 km to San Bernardino

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16 Lone Juniper Ranch and Frazier Park High School Prototype GPS fault slip sensor; up to 10 Hz Spans the San Andreas fault near Gorman, California

17 San Andreas - instrument major lifeline infrastructure crossings

18 M 7.9 San Andreas - Krishnan et al. (Caltech)

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20 Courtesy of Erdal Safak (USGS)

21 Factor Building at UCLA Prototype for DamageMap PIs Erdal Safak, Monical Kohler and Paul Davis

22 Initial GPS Data from Factor Building

23 Summary Slip sensor concept is to augment regional seismic coverage - one part of an overall EEW system that is primarily using a very different approach Measure slip directly - dont need to know anything else - quick & easy High risk deployment strategy tuned to rare pay-off in extreme events Robust earthquake early warning system design obtain more accurate displacement observations new instrumentation for dynamic and static displacement address deficiencies due to double-integration of accelerometer records Same R&D effort as for DamageMap instrumentation - now under way with USGS Venture Capital and ANSS start-up funds, but major funding and long-term support for implementation has not yet been identified

24 Ken Hudnut Dept. of the Interior - U. S. Geological Survey 525 South Wilson Ave. Pasadena, CA


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