Presentation on theme: "Requirement Estimation"— Presentation transcript:
1Requirement Estimation Presented By:Tina M. Underhill, BABOK ContributorVP Marketing & Communication NomineeIIBA Greater Boston Chapter
2Agenda About the Speaker Housekeeping Session Overview BABOK 2.0 DefinitionsThe BA RoleBA TasksBA ActivitiesBABOK 3.0 ConceptsWrap UpQ & A
3About the SpeakerTina M. Underhill is a senior-level Business Analyst Consultant with over 25 years of business operations experience within the finance, insurance, and retail industries at such companies as: AT&T, Key Bank, Humana Health Insurance, [FPIC] The Doctors, Bank of America, GM Financial, Express Scripts, Commerce/Mapfre, and TJX.As an active member of the International Institute of Business Analysis (IIBA) she is contributing to the BABOK version 3.0 under Solution Assessment & Validation. As an active member of the IIBA Greater Boston Chapter she is a nominee for the VP of Marketing & Communication.In 2012, she served as a panelist at Project Summit & Business Analyst World in Burlington on Agile Requirements and will be presenting this year about Agile Requirements.Currently, she is serving as a Principal Business Analysis Consultant with Content Raven, a cloud-based content control solution software company [Agile], as well as serving as a Business Analysis Consultant at Staples’ corporate headquarters in Framingham on the dotcom team [Waterfall/Agile].She holds multiple AS Degrees from Florida State College in Business and IT disciplines.
4Housekeeping Respect the conversation – keep your phones on MUTE. Realize that we won’t solve everything in the session.Feel free to politely “interrupt” the speaker – if you have a question, make sure it gets captured in the question space. We may not answer it now (parking lot), but it is best to capture thoughts and questions in the moment they are relevant.The Parking Lot will be used for questions that cannot be answered, issues or unrelated topics – we will post directives within 48 business hours after the session.
5Session Overview This session is intended to: Provide definitions and glossary terms from the BABOK disciplines that are intended to guide the Business Analyst down the right pathHelp BAs understand what the process is, what the many tasks and activities that are performed inside the process and what the differences are within a Waterfall and Agile methodologies.Showcase the Business Analyst’s positive contribution in Requirement Estimation within both the Waterfall and Agile methodologies in both large and small organizations.How to use real ingenuity to get the right estimation plan into place.
6Definitions: Business Analysis Body of Knowledge BABOK version 2.0 defines Requirement Estimation in the following area:Knowledge Area – Chapter 9: Techniques Estimation (p.70)This technique is assigned to the following Knowledge Areas in the BOK (v.2):Knowledge Area – Chapter 2: Business Analysis Planning & MonitoringKnowledge Area – Chapter 5: Enterprise AnalysisThere is a GAP: The BOK does not address how to plan for “construction”.
7Chapter 9 – TechniquesSection Estimation: Estimating techniques forecast the cost and effort involved in pursuing a course of action.Good ForecastingChanges the budgetPOSITIVELYEstimates can help stakeholders make better decisions; but can also have stakeholders “assuming” estimates are commitments!Prevent a RISK: Ensure the stakeholders know the difference!
8What is the Business Analyst’s role? SMALLOrLARGEInsuranceRetailFinanceEnterprise:SizeCultureIndustryLocationITOrBusinessOnsiteVsOffsiteIn a small Enterprise: resource pool dictates role. While in a larger Enterprise, tasks can vary dependent on the set of responsibilities assigned including: facilitation, documentation tasks, identifying gaps, presenting alternatives, negotiating, directing groups, presenting plans, improving processes, dictating solution plans, ensuring strategic imperatives are aligned and that the culture is prepared.If the BA is IT Focused tasks are done “systematically” to implement change while in a Business focused culture, the BA “dives” into the details of how a requirement might actually be implemented in the enterprise.Focus is on compliance.The Insurance BA has focus on compliance and they must tie “most” changes to regulations and ensure those regulations are not impacted negatively by change. The Retail BA has focus on sales and they must tie “most” changes to buying opportunities. The Finance BA has focus is on the “bottom line”.The BA must tie “most” changes to stocks, rates, etc.
10Who is in the Process?Update to add the OTHERs and change the Circle to Estimation
11Estimation Methods – the How DefinitionWhen to UseAnalogousAgileA “top-down” approach performed at the beginning of a project/phase with more estimates performed when more is known.When there is little known.ParametricWaterfallParameters are used along with how many there will be. For example:one use case = 20 hours,10 cases x 20 hours = 200 hours.When there is enough history available to be used as a basis of comparison.Bottom-upIncludes deliverables, activities, tasks, and estimates from stakeholders. These are then rolled up to get a total for all activities and tasks. It is more granular.When you want to produce the most accurate and defensible estimates.Rolling waveThis involves refining of the initial estimates for all the activities so the estimates for the next iteration can be made.When the end of an iteration approaches.Three-pointUses scenarios in these three stages: most optimistic, most pessimistic, and most likely estimates.When Use Cases are used versus granular requirements.HistoricUses “history” as the basis. Similar to analogous but not used for just top-down estimation.When there are detailed tasks and there are prior project records.Expert JudgmentRelies on the expertise of those who have done the work in the past.When the same resources are available or the resource has a principal level of knowledge.DelphiUses a combination of expert judgment and history estimation techniques. They include: individual estimates, sharing the estimates with experts, and having several rounds until consensus is reached and then using the average.When an average can be derived by taking the optimistic, pessimistic and 4x the most likely, then dividing by 6.
12Analogous vs Parametric Business Case: Annual 5k road race, that has three primary components: marketing, registration, and race-day coordination. Marketing: flyers are needed to be printed up at a cost $0.20 each. Details: It took two weeks for the flyers to be printed for last year Registration: Design an on-line registration form and the cost to host on the website.Details: Last year it took one week to design and the cost to host the registration website was $ Coordination: There are four people used to coordinate the race.Details: Each resource will be paid $25 per hour and they will be working an estimated seven hours, based on the race last year. AnalogousParametricHow long will this take for the Marketing materials?How much will the Marketing cost?How much will the Coordination cost?How much will the Registration cost to host?How long will the Registration take?How long will this take to Coordinate?Summary: Both of these methods can be used for duration and cost because of historical info and expert judgment. The difference is that analogous is less accurate.
13Bottom-Up Task 1: Determine actual cost of flyers Business Case: Annual 5k road race, that has three primary components: marketing, registration, and race-day coordination. Marketing: flyers are needed to be printed up at a cost $0.20 each. Details: It took two weeks for the flyers to be printed for last year Registration: Design an on-line registration form and the cost to host on the website.Details: Last year it took one week to design and the cost to host the registration website was $ Coordination: There are four people used to coordinate the race.Details: Each resource will be paid $25 per hour and they will be working an estimated seven hours, based on the race last year. Task 1: Determine actual cost of flyersTask 2: Get estimates from three printersTask 3: Get actual costsWhat other tasks would we perform for this granular estimate?Summary: This is a detailed assessment of the resources, capabilities, and amounts are used to determine an accurate duration or cost estimate.
14Three-Point Task 1: Determine the best-case estimate Project: Introduction of a three-tiered Customer Service Resolution CenterDetails: Three-tiers include: Routine Questions; Medium Questions, Complex/Supervisory QuestionsResolution Times: Routine Questions take 1-3 minutes, Medium Questions take 4-6 minutes, Complex Questions take 6+ minutesStaff Allocation: 50 Routine CSRs, 20 Medium CRSs, 10 Complex CSRsCall Volume: routine calls per rep per day with call transfers to the Medium and Complex areas Task 1: Determine the best-case estimateTask 2: Determine the most likely estimateTask 3: Determine the worst-case estimateEstimate = (T1 + 4[T2] + T3) / 6Summary: This is a statistical formula with a weighted average to base your estimation of phone coverage.
15Rolling Wave WHAT IS YOUR PLAN? Project: 10-day Vacation at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, FLStakeholders: You and your family , including 3 kids (6-boy), (11-girl) (16-girl) have never been to the “World”.I ternary: Flight from Worcester Airport to Orlando International Airport on Aug 3 – Aug 12Details: There are (4) Theme Parks, (2) Water Parks, Downtown Disney Marketplace, and many other activities including fishing excursions, horse back riding, golf, guided toursWhat is needed: Theme Park tickets, Water Park tickets, meals, daily guide plansDecision 1: Tickets: One park per day, park hopper, waterpark and moreDecision 2: Meals: Sit-down dinners, quick service meals, dinner shows, ala carte, grocery storeDecision 3: What is important?DAY 4Meal PlaceMenuParkAll ridesEvening detailsDAY 3Meal PlaceParkMust have ridesDAY 2Meal PlaceParkDAY 13 DetailsWHAT IS YOUR PLAN?
16Rolling WaveProject: 10-day Vacation at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, FLStakeholders: You and your family , including 3 kids (6-boy), (11-girl) (16-girl) have never been to the “World”.I ternary: Flight from Worcester Airport to Orlando International Airport on Aug 3 – Aug 12Details: There are (4) Theme Parks, (2) Water Parks, Downtown Disney Marketplace, and many other activities including fishing excursions, horse back riding, golf, guided toursWhat is needed: Theme Park tickets, Water Park tickets, meals, daily guide plansDecision 1: 5-day Ticket with Park Hopper and Water Park Fun & More OptionsDecision 2: Meals will include 3 sit-down dinners, Mickey’s backyard BBQ, and the famous Hoop Dee Doo Musical Revue, and then some quick service meal options.DAY 4Breakfast at ResortBlizzard BeachChair LiftSummit PlummetMelt-Away BayLunch at AvalunchPulled Pork Slaw DogMac and Cheese DogHead back to ResortHoop Dee Doo Musical RevueDecision 3: Planning in some resort time for actual rest is a must!DAY 3AK – Breakfast at Tusker HouseExpedition EverestKali River RapidsLunch at PizzafariKilimanjaro SafarisMaharajah Jungle TrekDAY 2Breakfast at ResortMKLunch at Crystal PalaceDay break at ResortMickey’s Backyard BBQDAY 1Arrive on Magical ExpressCheck InHit the Parks!Summary: Rolling wave is planning from one time period to the next with each additional time period being more detailed.
17Historic – Expert - Delphi Project: Convert legacy customer service platform to new environmentDetails: The claims system was converted from January 2011 – April 2013 and included over work hours across all areas.Phases will included: Define, Estimate, Construct, Test, ImplementDetermine Fact 1: How long did it take for the claim system conversion?January 2011 – January 2012 = 12 monthsJanuary 2012 – January 2013 = 12 monthsJanuary 2013 – April 2013 = months(27 months x 4 weeks = 108 weeks) x 40 hours = 4320 hoursDetermine Fact 2: How many man hours were allocated?# of resources on project = 5History is the basis for this estimate
18Historic – Expert - Delphi Project: Convert legacy customer service platform to new environmentDetails: The claims system was converted from January 2011 – April 2013 and included over work hours across all areas.Phases will included: Define, Estimate, Construct, Test, ImplementDetermine Fact 1: How long did it take for the claim system conversion?Determine Fact 2: How many man hours were allocated?Hx DataInterviewsBrainstormingWhat kind of questions could we come up with?Whose expert judgment would we rely on?Summary: Historic estimates take statistical history, Expert Judgment takes addition factors into consideration, Delphi is a combination of the two.
19BA Tasks: Waterfall Technique Methodology BA Role Analogous Waterfall BA starts from scratch on a very high level.ParametricBA draws from similar projects and parameters of similar size, scale and functionality. [Can also be done in Agile]Bottom-upBA defines the estimate by specific requirement details.Three PointBA draws from Use Cases/Scenarios in Easy, Medium, and Complex states.
20BA Tasks: Agile Technique Methodology BA Role Rolling Wave Agile BA uses one iteration estimate to form the next one.HistoricBA draws a strong analogy to projects and tasks of similar size, scale and functionality.ExpertBA draws from the expertise of the developers and their past experiences.DelphiBA draws from history and expertise.
21Definitions: Business Analysis Body of Knowledge BABOK version 3.0 defines Requirement Estimation in the following area:Knowledge Area – Techniques - Estimation:Specific content is in the DRAFT stage but it does change the definition to be aligned with agreement, WBS, constraints, and includes assumptions.The following methods are being considered to be changed: analogous, three-point, historic, expert. Some new methods may enter, for example, ROM – rough order of magnitude.Some things also being considered are: accuracy of the estimate, sources, precision/reliability, contributors, and usage considerations (strengths/limitations).