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Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Accenture, its logo, and High Performance Delivered are trademarks of Accenture. At the tipping point: financial services in Africa comes of age An Accenture Point of View on the growth opportunities for Financial Institutions in Africa.
2 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Contents Executive Summary3 The African Opportunity:7 Why Africa? and why now? The Tipping Point Index:12 Which markets are most attractive for financial services growth? Growth Triggers:17 What drives financial services market growth in different African economies? African Expansion:24 How are global FS institutions entering the African market, and African institutions expanding across borders? Business Models:29 What business models are required for success in African environment?
Executive Summary 3 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved.
(1/3) 4 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. The economic growth potential for Africa is huge. Current changes in the underlying business conditions and increasing globalisation create strong tailwinds. While many African nations used to be held back by issues such as political and civil instability, poverty, poor infrastructure or governance – increasing numbers of countries are breaking these barriers. Financial Services companies also have an important role to play in the African growth story, as providers of services and as participants in the development of financial infrastructure. These different growth factors create an attractive environment for Financial Services companies – either in markets where there is already established financial services market depth, or in countries where a tipping point for financial services companies has been reached or soon will be. the tipping point of hyper growth in several countries. The players which will seize the emerging opportunities will build a sustained and lasting competitive advantage in these promising markets Accenture has developed a proprietary Tipping Point Index (TPI) to identify the readiness of financial markets to take off, based on the combination of 29 different criteria grouped in three categories: financial infrastructures such as financial markets sophistication, equity capital market etc. existing depth of consumer markets such as banking penetration, insurance density etc. economic development factors such as regulatory environment, market openness etc. This research paper examines: The macro-environment for African growth and financial services development Our tipping point index to identify which countries are most likely to experience hyper-growth in financial services Different growth trajectories in different countries and business lines The current attraction of African markets to foreign participants and African banks An outline of business models required to succeed in establishing an African presence Accenture believes that the Continent s current pace of change and potential future in the new MultiPolar world is still largely underestimated in most Financial Services analysis. Financial Services markets are either established or near
(2/3) 5 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Based on the first release of the TPI analysis*, beyond South Africa and Mauritius, which have already established and somewhat mature FS markets, Accenture has identified: five markets which are forging ahead to the tipping point of fast development eight markets as next movers additional markets which have hidden potential that can be unlocked quickly through some structural transformations New triggers of FS sector growth exist and point to rapid market development in some countries. Although paths to growth are different in each country, frequent triggers include: Innovation through (very) low cost offerings and distribution in order to radically transform the access to financial services for a large percentage of the consumers local business and regulatory environments pose a challenge to rolling out standardised models Contributing to nation building and the development of local communities is a prerequisite in many countries across the region Emerging strategies include: Using one major local market as a base to expand market presence and roll out model across Africa Following Corporate Clients across Africa Deepen localization through acquisition of local Giant and integrate in Global network For Retail banks, low cost Mobile Banking capabilities and alliances with telecom companies are a must have due the criticality of access, customer experience and scalability to take Banking to the Unbanked FS Infrastructure development through more sophisticated FS regulations, and the development of IT, telephone, internet infrastructures and FS infrastructures Investment in the economy thanks to FDI flows, trade flows and Financial Institutions following their clients into new countries Rise of cities and urban consumers, emergence of new middle class, distributed consumers through low cost mobile in rural areas, rural/agricultural informal business through MFI Replicating old business models will not be enough in Africas fast developing markets. New growth strategies are needed to have a lasting success across Africa. Adapting traditional retail banking models to local cultural needs including traditional uses of money, family and kin relationships, and distributed populations, in addition to significant differences in
(3/3) 6 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Telcos are developing financial services access through low cost mobile payments services, many of which are extending into the provision of simple banking offerings Now is the time for FS companies to consider their positioning in the economic growth story of Africa and their role in developing financial services markets. Which markets to be in, what are the natural connections with their home markets or global strategy, the ambitions of their clients – what is the natural route to entry. The opportunity for financial services players is now. Increasing interest from mature market and emerging market institutions and the rise of large domestic players suggest a new market will be established across the region over the next few years.
The African Opportunity: Why Africa, and why now? 7 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved.
Forecasts predict high growth rates over the next 5 years – although growth paths are diverse 8 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. GDP Growth of Leading African Economies (CAGR) Source: GDP current prices, World Date Bank, IMF, 2010
The Business environment has improved in recent years but is still very diverse; GDP growth will continue to push forward income and living standards in the largest economies The pace of reforms to improve the business environment has accelerated across Africa since 2007 and has not slowed down last year despite the economic uncertainty*. The business environments are still very diverse across the region, and largely independent from the potential size of the markets Economic growth will push more people into income categories where demand for financial services products increases 9 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Leading African Economies: Business Environment and Market potential Source: IMF, 2010; World Bank, Doing Business 2011 NB: no data for Libya.
Trends suggest that the development of FS markets in Africa will not follow the same path as developed markets or other emerging markets 10 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Four forces are likely to drive a new form of financial market development in Africa......While a set of factors may continue to restrict the shape of market development
Why now? Growth opportunities for financial services companies are large, but the window of opportunity to seize them may be small 11 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved.
12 The Tipping Point Index: Which markets are most attractive for financial services growth? Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved.
The Accenture Tipping Point Index, understanding which markets are the most attractive for financial services growth While the overall growth story for the African continent is positive, levels of development, financial depth and market scale and the business environment vary considerably between countries. To develop a comparative lens for analysing different countries, Accenture has developed the Tipping Point Index, which assesses a range of variables for 23 of the largest economies in Africa, across three main categories: –Financial infrastructure – such as the development and sophistication of financial markets –Consumer financial services – looking at the existing depth of and access to consumer financial markets –Economic development factors – such as economic growth, underlying institutions and regulatory environment 13 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Our analysis shows a division between: Established Financial Services Markets that are relatively deep and mature, with an existing diverse and thriving financial sector Forging Ahead economies that tend to be larger, wealthier or more institutionally developed markets that are embarking on reforms that are creating more attractive financial services markets Next Movers are a larger set of economies that have high potential and are in the process of overcoming barriers of low income, financial access, institutional or governance deficiencies Transitional Economies where potential is constrained by barriers such as poverty, lack of financial inclusion, difficult business and civil environments and a lack of financial infrastructure Note: While the availability of data on African economies is more limited than many developed markets, we have looked at leading international institutional data sources to obtain a best available view.
Tipping Point Index - Financial Market Readiness The positioning of different economies will determine expansion strategies 14 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Ranking is based on relative performance across 29 observations Ranking is based on un-weighted performance against underlying variables FS development in SA and Mauritius is well ahead of other countries Next movers and transitional economies are in some cases impacted by the lack of existing markets e.g. no equity capital market – or lack of data availability Some of the transitional or unrated economies may have hidden potential (e.g. Angola, Mozambique, Zimbabwe) that could be released through institutional change or structural reforms RankCountryTPI Score 1South Africa0.73 2Mauritius0.54 3Egypt0.49 4Tunisia0.48 5Morocco0.43 6Nigeria0.41 7Botswana0.39 8Ghana0.33 9Namibia0.31 10=Algeria0.28 10=Libya0.28 10=Zambia0.28 13=Senegal0.27 13=Kenya0.27 15Uganda0.25 16Gabon0.23 17=Angola0.21 17=Tanzania0.21 19Mozambique0.20 20Cote dIvoire0.19 21Ethiopia0.18 22Cameroon0.17 23Sudan0.11 Established FS Markets Forging Ahead Next Movers Tipping Point Transitional Economies
While a number of economies have a sound business environment for FS market development, relatively few also have the existing scale of population and depth of financial market assets to be immediately attractive 15 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Tipping Point Index, 2009 The TPI Dual Factor index examines the underlying variables related to the FS Business Environment and the FS Market Attractiveness to provide a deeper understanding of the market development and potential in leading African economies.
Countries that are forging ahead are implementing measures that are triggering the Tipping Point for hyper growth 16 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Sources: Accenture Research analysis based on World Bank, CGAP, African Development Bank and WEF African Competitiveness Report
17 Growth Triggers: What drives financial services market growth in different African economies? Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved.
The financial market attractiveness of many countries in Africa is changing as strong growth momentum and many traditional barriers are tackled 18 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. A strong set of African economies present a set of attractive growth drivers (numerator) while tackling the fundamental barriers to growth (denominator) that have held back many countries from experiencing hyper-growth in financial services...
New growth triggers are appearing that make many African countries highly attractive to foreign banks and insurers. However the paths to growth are different in each country 19 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Main Triggers of FS sector growth in Africa
Nigeria is becoming a very attractive market for foreign financial institutions as economic growth and financial reform is creating large new retail FS markets; but the opportunity is dependent on ongoing financial reform Strong macro-economic growth scenario. Rapid financial regulatory reform Solid population growth Increasing urbanisation and economic participation Strong banking asset growth forecast Stronger banks are returning to growth Insurance markets are small, but growing 20 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Growth Drivers Through the four pillars of the banking reform program, the Central bank is sponsoring banking sector consolidation and inviting more foreign participation Very large unbanked population. Physical banking distribution is limited Cost of banking services is high – opportunity for low cost provision Mobile banking potential – pending regulatory approval Opportunity to improve operations performance of domestic banks SME banking is under-penetrated and being developed by Government Limited development of Islamic banking to serve c.50% Muslim population Window of opportunity is limited as industry consolidation, increased foreign participation and rapid banking growth are anticipated in short term Nigeria has the scale and potential capital market infrastructure to operate as a regional hub Tapping the market potential Nigeria GDP growth and per capita income 2005 - 2014 Vital Statistics20095yr Historic Growth Rate Population152m2.8% GDP$169bn6.3% GDP per capita PPP$2,2745.1% Total Banking Assets$100bn27% Loans$51bn27% Deposits$49bn21% Insurance Premiums %GDP1%26% Banking Penetration15% Branches per 100k0.26 Mobile Penetration49%
In Uganda, developing low cost mobile payment and innovative banking solutions provide a route to rapid bancarisation in a low income country 21 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Uganda benefits from a strong macro-economic growth outlook Low financial market depth, but strong asset growth Large population with limited financial service access A stable regulatory and business environment and has been successful in developing trade and foreign investment High costs of traditional banking services and limited distribution Govt is promoting increased distribution through commercial banks and MFIs Strong uptake of mobile phones and introduction of mobile payment services by Telcos and banks Growth Drivers Significant potential to increase access to financial services products Opportunity to innovate low cost products and distribution could provide a strong long term growth trajectory Telco mobile payment operators are partnering with local banks to provide basic banking services Alliance opportunities with existing MFI and Postal Savings Bank providers to increase distribution access and entry to market Tapping the market potential Uganda GDP growth and per capita income 2005 - 2014 Vital Statistics20095yr Historic Growth Rate Population32.8m3.4% GDP$15.8bn8.3% GDP per capita PPP$1,2105.3% Total Banking Assets$5.3bnn.a. Loans$1.4bnn.a. Deposits$2.7bnn.a. Insurance Premiums %GDPn.a. Banking Penetration20% Branches per 100k0.47 Mobile Penetration33%7%
Angolas natural resources are driving a wave of inward investment, development and trade creating opportunities for commercial banks, with a mid-size retail market developing in the near future 22 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Having emerged from long civil war, Angola is benefitting from a period of stability and making significant progress sin reconstruction and development. Oil and gas revenues under-pin a very strong macro-economic outlook The government is investing significantly in infrastructure and economic development activities The majority of banking and insurance activities are centred around multi-national companies and small high income population. Traditional banking activity is primarily provided through commercial banks and is expensive for the majority of the population Growth Drivers A number of foreign (primarily Portuguese) and regional banks have established a presence primarily serving MNCs, commercial and trade activities Trade flows and FDI opportunities centre around Oil and Gas, Commodities, Construction and Telecommunications Domestic retail banking markets are small and dominated by domestic commercial banks Domestic banks have significant local public and conglomerate stakes – potential future privatisation and divestment Currently the regulatory framework does not favour development of low-cost banking propositions While mobile penetration is mid-range and growing, mobile payment developments to date have been limited Tapping the market potential Angola GDP growth and per capita income 2005 - 2014 Vital Statistics20095yr Historic Growth Rate Population17.3m2.9% GDP$74.5bn14.4% GDP per capita PPP$6,18112.3% Total Banking Assets$11.7bnn.a. Loans$9bnn.a. Deposits$12.4bnn.a. Insurance Premiums %GDP0.3% Banking Penetration25% Branches per 100k2.63 Mobile Penetration38%
In Egypt, investment in infrastructure is creating a strong growth environment, while longer term reform is boosting the FS market and creating opportunity in a large medium income market 23 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Egypt has one of the most sophisticated and largest financial markets in Africa, Progressive financial services market reforms are improving business conditions and the market is open to foreign participation Economic growth is forecast to be strong but has been restricted due to human capital, business environment and infrastructure issues. Large scale public and private investment in transport, energy & utilities, telecommunications and technology will support growth A large and growing population, highly urbanised with relatively good access to banking distribution will increase FS product uptake Growth Drivers The banking and insurance markets in Egypt remain fragmented, and with significant public ownership Infrastructure investment will create attractive financing opportunities and create additional opportunities in commercial banking The Egyptian Government is continuing financial sector reform Increasing incomes and relatively good access infrastructure will drive bank asset growth The central bank is developing additional regulatory frameworks to facilitate development of mobile payments and banking and micro-finance sector Increasing popularity of Islamic Finance provide opportunities for providers in banking and insurance markets. Tapping the market potential Angola GDP growth and per capita income 2005 - 2014 Vital Statistics20095yr Historic Growth Rate Population76.7m2.3% GDP$188bn6.0% GDP per capita PPP$6,1146.3% Total Banking Assets$209bn13% Loans$79bn12% Deposits$154bn13% Insurance Premiums %GDP0.2% Banking Penetration41% Branches per 100k4.47 Mobile Penetration65%
24 African Expansion: How are global FS institutions entering the African market, and African institutions expanding across borders? Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved.
New entrants from Emerging Markets are challenging European Banks in Sub Sahara Africa 25 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved.
The current transformation of the Nigeria market may change the face of inter-African competition, largely based up to now on traditional regional and business areas of influence 26 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved.
FS Companies expanding and acquiring in Africa are following a number of different approaches complimentary to their existing strengths and strategies 27 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. African FS Expansion Strategies A key consideration
Gold rush: M&A in the African Financial Services industry have strongly increased since 2004 28 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Financial Services Sector M&A Deal Value Domestic and Cross-Border, $m Sources: Accenture Research based on Bloomberg
29 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Business Models: What business models are required for success in African environment?
Innovative growth strategies are needed for Africa. Replicating old business models is not enough 30 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved.
Four business models are likely to dominate African FS company networks – with a number of hybrids 31 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. 1. Standardised Operating Model Operating model typology Multiple countries served by common systems, platforms and operations Shared-services provide specialist support Targeting high efficiency, consistent services and scale economics Key challenge in supporting local market requirements – including different customer service requirements, payments infrastructure and regulation More typical for Corporate and Commercial banking models E.g. Ecobank, Standard Bank (Aspiration) 2. Regional Operating Model Operating model typology African regions served by common systems, platforms and operations Some degree of shared-services provide specialist support Targeting efficiency, consistent services and scale economics tailored to regions Key challenge in supporting local market requirements – little regional harmonisation More typical for retail business models E.g. Absa/Barclays (Aspiration)
Four business models are likely to dominate African FS company networks – with a number of hybrids 32 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. 3. Multi-Local Operating Model Operating model typology Each country supported by local operations, systems and infrastructure Some shared-services provide specialist support in multi-country groups Targeting responsiveness to local market needs Struggle to develop efficiency or offered specialised services in small-scale markets More typical for retail banking models, especially where local regulators require domestic operations and processing E.g. Absa/Barclays (today) 4. International Supported Model Operating model typology Small local presence supported by offshore services, infrastructure and platforms Majority of enterprise and specialist services provided offshore Targeting customer acquisition and front office service, leveraging global servicing for efficiency or specialist services Minimal local customisation Typically focused on providing specialist services to local market, e.g. Trade, Corporate or Capital Market Services E.g. Societe Generale (IT)
Pan-African banks are undertaking a rapid evolution of operating models to scale for growth, geared towards their target business lines 33 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved.
Retail banking in Africa has historically focused on smaller numbers of affluent customers. As the need for financial services grows new low cost distribution strategies will be required While growing numbers of Africans are attaining income levels of a new middle class, traditional banking services remain too expensive for many. The cost of extending banking access through traditional physical channels is prohibitive, and many low income customers provide thin margins for traditional banking models Mobile payment solutions are providing a new low cost way to meet basic financial services needs, however these services are also low margin and for many operators are a way of increasing core revenue streams from selling air-time and reducing customer churn For banks seeking to tap the potential of the emerging customer group, new retail models are required, including –Low cost distribution strategies –Simple, low cost products –Scale and low cost operations through regionalisation, shared services, automation and process outsourcing are required to reduce cost-to-serve Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. 34
Mobile financial services are a growing force across Africa and an important part of the emerging FS ecosystem 35 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Mobile FS is undergoing a rapid growth trajectory 27m Africans are expected to subscribe to mobile financial services at the end of 2010, this is forecast to grow to 78m by 2012 and 238m by 2015 as uptake increases and more providers roll out solutions in more countries The total amount transacted is anticipated to grow to 7.5% of total African GDP in 2015 or $200bn earning mobile operators c$3bn revenue. 1 High mobile penetration, lower cost access to basic financial services and large alternative distribution networks are key drivers for customer uptake Mobile Operators are playing a key role in driving growth – as well as banks The relationships between operators and banks are critical to business models Regulatory issues for money supply, e-cash creation and cash management will shape the inter-relationship of Mobile Operators and Banks As yet – Mobile Operators operating as banks, and 3rd party providers have not made significant impact on the African mobile FS market Serving low income customers profitably is a major challenge – many mobile solutions are relatively low margin, but cross-subsidised by airtime sales; banks will be challenged to serve these customers without reducing margins for their overall business African Mobile Subscribers (m) Source: Pyramid Research, Mobile Financial Services in Africa, October 2010 1 Pyramid Research, Mobile Financial Services in Africa, October 2010
How does your organisation position itself to make the most of growth in African FS? The diversity and complexity of financial services in Africa mean that there is unlikely to be a Pan-Africa Strategy Instead organisations are taking a set of focused actions – including building a presence in select markets 36 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Key Considerations
Financial Services in Africa offer the opportunity for banks and insurers to participate in a growth story that goes beyond profits Growth potential in Africa is now real Governments are proactively reducing barriers to FS growth building key market enablers The Tipping Point Index shows that the African continent can not be treated as a single entity. There is differential attractiveness to foreign banks between African countries But – a new group of fast movers that need to be taken seriously as a serious growth opportunity Many countries are trying to skip a generation of evolution and create a FS environment highly customised to Africa However, foreign banks can bring competitive advantages, know how and innovation 37 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Considerable dexterity from foreign banks (c. 20) to buy an option on the Tipping Point Business models – a large spectrum of entry strategies and scaling approaches to business No single best practice but some early learning and some critical success factors are becoming visible –Establish an Africa Taskforce –Look for partners –Understand the relative attractiveness of different sectors –Define clear competitive advantages to bring to market
Appendix 38 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved.
Understanding the attractiveness of different FS markets in Africa depends on an understanding of economic factors, financial infrastructure and existing depth of consumer FS markets 39 Copyright © 2010 Accenture All Rights Reserved. Tipping Point Index Methodology Financial Market Readiness 1.Are the conditions for growth present? 2.Readiness – which countries are in the take-off zone? 3.What do individual countries have to do to get to the take-off zone?
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