Presentation on theme: "National Hydrometeorological Services (NHMS): An Assessment of the Philippines Consultation Meeting, 30 April 2012, AIM, Makati, Philippines."— Presentation transcript:
National Hydrometeorological Services (NHMS): An Assessment of the Philippines Consultation Meeting, 30 April 2012, AIM, Makati, Philippines
Tasks undertaken An update and review of the draft report of MMHS under the project Strengthening Meteorological and Hydrological Services in East Asia Mar-Apr 2012; UNISDR AP, Bangkok PAGASAs collaboration Review by staff led by Dr. Susan Espinueva, 19 Apr Interview with DOST/PCIEERD, 23 Apr Review of socio-economic analysis
Analysis according to TOR 1.Review existing capacity and infrastructure issues; 2.Assess services needs of user community 3.Identify the existing meteorological and relevant data collection and exchange procedures 4.Identify relevant data-sharing protocols and requirements, considering, standards for hydrological data exchange within and among states;
Analysis according to TOR 5.Prepare two investment scenarios for the region assuming that: (a) protocols will be established whereby data are fully and freely, and shared among the member states, and (b) data sharing as it occurs today; 6.Prepare data sharing requirements and standards based on their needs and assuming that capacity will be improved; 7.Prepare detailed investment plans for each country program; 8.Identify potential partnerships between national and international weather agencies based on the technical assistance needs identified in the study.
Outline-Draft report (ca 2011) Executive Summary Philippine Context Results of cost benefit analysis User needs assessment Philippine NHMS: PAGASA - Organization/Resources -Current services -Network of monitoring stations
Outline (Contd) Philippines: NHMS (Continuation) Maintenance, calibration and manufacturing of monitoring facilities Numerical weather prediction (NWP) Information, Communication Technology (ICT) National & international cooperation and data sharing Development plans proposed by PAGASA Summary Recommendations to strengthen NHMS services Project proposal
Report: Table of contents Executive Summary Philippines in a Nutshell (description, economic overview, climate, disaster risk profile, institutional and planning context) Socio-economic Benefits of Hydro- Meteorological Services User Needs Assessment of Hydro- meteorological Services & Information The National Meteorological & Hydrological Services in the Philippines Current Services of the NHMS PAGASAs Network for Monitoring Stations (Surface, remote sensing observations) Maintenance, Calibration & Manufacturing of Monitoring Facilities Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Information, Communication Technology (ICT) National & International Cooperation and Data Sharing Development Plans Proposed by PAGASA Summary Recommendations to Strengthen the Meteorological & Hydrological Services Project Proposal Persons Met During the Mission References Appendices
General observations since completion of draft Significant changes in legal and institutional framework in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation/mitigation; mainstreaming Enhanced weather forecasting capacity in terms of hardware Evolving arrangements in the process of fast tracking mitigation measures for flood and hydromet events Heightened socio-political dimensions relative to awareness level and Philippine development planning
Disasters and NHMS All sectors realized the importance of HMS the need to share data and other information to other NMHS in the region. Establishment of mechanism for public- private partnership in disaster reconstruction
Assessment of NHMS in the Philippines Automation program to address need for accurate and frequent updates on severe weather Doppler radar installation Transport, construction, industry Tailor-made forecast Agriculture Upgrading of facilities increase value of forecast products Pursuing commercialization of some specialized products to private companies and others (aviation, shipping, etc.)
PAGASA as NHMS: National set-up Mandate: to provide weather, climate, agro-met and hydrological services in the Philippines for public safety and in support of economic development; to disseminate official time and provide basic astronomical services.
PAGASA as NHMS Operates & maintains 98% of all hydromet observation networks - aviation met service offices in major airports -Weather, climate and hydrology within PAGASA headquarters Official forecasts, warnings, advisories, outlooks, press releases on severe weather & extreme events (tropical cyclone, flood, drought, El Nino/La Nina
PAGASA plans Updated Strategic Plan (SP) in line with WMO Regional Association V SP 2012- 2015 Long-term Plan/PAGASA Onwards 2020 R&D-Operations and Services Framework Investment Portfolio – annual review
Planning context Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2011- 2016 National S&T Plan National Disaster Risk Reduction & Management Plan 2011-2028 National Climate Change Action Plan 2011- 2038 Pres. Aquinos 16-point agenda
Philippine Context-PAGASA input Climate projections using PRECIS/Hadley Centre Second National Communication to IPCCC Weather & climate-dependent economic sectors, 61% of GDP: manufacturing, agriculture, post/telecommunication, construction, fishing forestry, land transport, electricity/gas/water supply, mining/quarrying, hotels/restaurants.
Profile of PAGASA Aging workforce: 873 staff - 82, R&D; 11, education/training - 11, PhD; 50, MSc: 5, Diploma 5 Regional Service Division Modernization program : 14 Doppler radars; > 150 automatic weather stations (AWS); 100 automatic rain gauges (ARGs) 2 Aviation Weather Observing Systems (AWS), 2 marine meteorological buoys, 1 wind profiler, 6 upper air stations, forecast automation Uninterrupted service 24/7/365 basis Annual budget: Php817 million (2011) __% increase from 2010
Current Services of PAGASA Weather services Early warning System Climatological and agrometeorological services Hydrological services Marine services Environmental services R&D based Expert services Information services Library services Training services Internet Partnerships with other agencies to expand observing network & data sharing
PAGASAs modernization Development of a 3-year modernization plan Additional state-of-the-art equipment, instruments, machines, computers & other facilities Manpower training & human resource dev. Strengthening Regional Weather Service Centers Greater public awareness through education projects/programs
PAGASAs Collaboration Designated WMO Regional Training Center for South Pacific Member of Typhoon Committee UNO: WMO, ICAO, UNESCO, UNDP, UNESCAP Links with UNEP, IPCC, APCN, ICTP, IOC, COST< APCC, RIMES Data sharing/Research/Training MOU with NHMCs of Korea, Viet Nam, Mongola JAMSTEC, DWD
User needs assessment: Sectors Status, government measures Agriculture, environmental protection/forest management, water resources, energy production & distribution, transport, construction, land use & planning, recreation/tourism, health, insurance, disaster reduction, military, climate change, media
PAGASA Gaps/Limitations Manual production/dissemination of hydromet forecasting & warning services needing data integration & processing Online hydromet obervations very limited in Visayas & Mindanao Quality of information is fair because of limited automatic editing and production system No nowcasts due to lack of appropriate equipment & inadequate skills of technical staff.
Institutional capacities: gaps & needs (Table 12.1) IssueGaps and needs Data products - Data rescue of historical climate data is urgently needed -High performance Data Quality Management system to support NWP system -Integrated database system for NWP data assimilation -Replacement and timely calibration schedule of met. and climate Instruments in some remote stations -Reliable and low-cost observation data communication system needed for efficiency Hazard analysis -Sufficient number of expert in disaster mitigation and risk assessment -Applied R&D products for domestic weather and climate forecasting still relatively limited
Institutional capacities: gaps & needs (Table 12.1) IssueGaps and needs Forecasts & warnings - High performance NWP assimilation system in place and operational - Radar and satellite data assimilation and remote sensing-based observation product development - Development of human resources in weather and climate modeling (NWP and climate models) - Flood forecasts showing height and limits of inundation areas - Extended hydrological forecasts - Tailor made forecasts for various sectors EWS expertise & advisory service Continuous upgrading the skills of PAGASAs operational staffs to utilize and manage the latest technology instruments and systems
Institutional capacities No gaps/needs articulated for Cooperation with other technical agencies International National Dissemination mechanisms Communication and media
Cooperation with other technical agencies National level Various Departments: Disaster Risk Reduction and Management, Public Works, Energy, Agriculture, Health, Transport, National Mapping, Mines &Geoscience, Civil Defense, etc. Local/provincial governments Universities: University of the Philippines, Ateneo de Manila International level ASEANs SCMG JAMSTEC Japan KOICA Korea KMA Korea JICA Japan JMA Japan CMA China DMHCC Vietnam TECO Taiwan Norad Norway UNDP AusAID USTDA USAID ADPC RIMES
PAGASAs Skill Level: Distribution of Rating per Level 36 parameters, 5 levels of rating
PAGASAs Skill Level
PAGASAs Skills: Level rating Level 1 (Very bad): 2/36 Lightning detection; environmental observation Level 2 (Poor): 6/36 Networking to regional hydromet organizations Automated processing & visualization R&D Radar data Communication system Data management
PAGASAs Skill Level Rating -Disaster reduction -Weather forecast -No. of WF products -NWP -Hydrological forecast -Agrometeorological services -Support of R&D to main lines -Surface synop network -Hydrological obs. Network -Maintenance & calibration Human resources Level of staff education Training programme Competitiveness on labour market Management Organization Public appreciation Customer orientation Market position Level 3 (Moderate): 19/36
PAGASAs Skill Level Data sharing/GTS International cooperation Climate change Upper-air data Webpage Competitiveness Public visibility Cooperation with media Foreseen possibility for sustainable devt Level 4 (Good)
PAGASA Vision Leading role in hydromet EWS Provide public access to quality products Strong advocacy in climate change adaptation Excellence in tropical cycle forecasting (SEA) A strong & dynamic organization with inspired & dedicated workforce Well-managed resources
Project Proposal 5-year investment plan To improve PAGASAs services for the benefit of the various socio-economic sectors Reflects the large increase in operational cost to the government as a results of its modernization DRR that emphasizes coordination and integrated system of information User-centered
Integration of forecasts, warnings and related information
PAGASAs Commitment Enhancement of weather forecasting capabilities HRDP- Improving capacities of PAGASA forecasting personnel Strengthening flood monitoring, forecasting & warning system R&D: Strengthening support to climate change adaptation related measures DRR related S&T program/awareness promotion (incl. establishing a National Meteorological & Climate Center)
PAGASAs Commitment: Enhancement of Weather Forecasting Capabilities Automated Data Integration, Analysis and Display System for Timely and Reliable Weather Information for Disaster Mitigation and Decision Support Doppler Weather Radar Program Rolling-out of Automated Weather Stations, Rain gauges, and Water level sensors Warning system for Marine Navigation and Transport Redundant Communication System
Doppler radar network showing existing and under implementation Source: Engineering Technical Services Division, PAGASA.
Components International cooperation of experts Modernization of on-going projects (flood forecasting, radar, wind profiler, marine buoy, AWOS, AWS, high-speed PC cluster computing system, upgrading of tecommunication system, acquisition of equipment Specialized training involving strengthening of cooperation in SEA for data sharing, information exchange and research collaboration
Socio-economic value For a 20% reduction in damages, improvements from 2010-2020 yield discounted benefits = USD173.70 million OptionCosts (USD million)Cost/benefit ratio Stand alone32.701:6.3 With regional cooperation 27.141:6.4 Note: (1) C/B ratios are inferior to the 1:7 ratio set by WMO. (2) Regional system is more desirable. (3) C/B ratios would improve if indirect benefits and benefits beyond 2029 are included.
Financing National government & foreign donors Government counterpart funds & technical personnel in project implementation Government budget allocation for O&M costs
Concluding remarks The positive direction taken by PAGASA and other stakeholders to reduce disaster risk through hydromet services is proper in the context of WMO. It shall need further tweaking in terms of two major streams: (1) Philippine governments overall development, and (2) regional demands as evidenced by weather extremes and climate variability. There is need for a constructive regular dialogue among the major stakeholders from S&T community and users.
Next Steps A regional system to enhance early warning and disaster risk reduction is mainly beneficial to the Philippines in terms of human resource development. The Philippines can contribute to data/information sharing in the region needing further dialogue among relevant stakeholders.