Presentation on theme: "Consultation Meeting, 30 April 2012, AIM, Makati, Philippines"— Presentation transcript:
1 Consultation Meeting, 30 April 2012, AIM, Makati, Philippines National Hydrometeorological Services (NHMS): An Assessment of the Philippines
2 Tasks undertakenAn update and review of the draft report of MMHS under the project “Strengthening Meteorological and Hydrological Services in East Asia”Mar-Apr 2012; UNISDR AP, BangkokPAGASA’s collaboration <Dr. Nathaniel Servando/Nancy Lance, Planning>Review by staff led by Dr. Susan Espinueva, 19 AprInterview with DOST/PCIEERD <Raul Sabularse>, 23 AprReview of socio-economic analysis <Danilo Israel>
3 Analysis according to TOR Review existing capacity and infrastructure issues;Assess services needs of user communityIdentify the existing meteorological and relevant data collection and exchange proceduresIdentify relevant data-sharing protocols and requirements, considering, standards for hydrological data exchange within and among states;
4 Analysis according to TOR Prepare two investment scenarios for the region assuming that: (a) protocols will be established whereby data are fully and freely, and shared among the member states, and (b) data sharing as it occurs today;Prepare data sharing requirements and standards based on their needs and assuming that capacity will be improved;Prepare detailed investment plans for each country program;Identify potential partnerships between national and international weather agencies based on the technical assistance needs identified in the study.
5 Outline-Draft report (ca 2011) Executive SummaryPhilippine ContextResults of cost benefit analysisUser needs assessmentPhilippine NHMS: PAGASA- Organization/ResourcesCurrent servicesNetwork of monitoring stations
6 Outline (Cont’d) Philippines: NHMS (Continuation) Maintenance, calibration and manufacturing of monitoring facilitiesNumerical weather prediction (NWP)Information, Communication Technology (ICT)National & international cooperation and data sharingDevelopment plans proposed by PAGASASummaryRecommendations to strengthen NHMS servicesProject proposal
7 Report: Table of contents Executive SummaryPhilippines in a Nutshell (description, economic overview, climate , disaster risk profile, institutional and planning context)Socio-economic Benefits of Hydro-Meteorological ServicesUser Needs Assessment of Hydro-meteorological Services & InformationThe National Meteorological & Hydrological Services in the PhilippinesCurrent Services of the NHMSPAGASAs Network for Monitoring Stations (Surface, remote sensing observations) Maintenance, Calibration & Manufacturing of Monitoring FacilitiesNumerical Weather Prediction (NWP)Information , Communication Technology (ICT)National & International Cooperation and Data SharingDevelopment Plans Proposed by PAGASASummaryRecommendations to Strengthen the Meteorological & Hydrological ServicesProject Proposal Persons Met During the MissionReferencesAppendices
8 General observations since completion of draft Significant changes in legal and institutional framework in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation/mitigation; mainstreamingEnhanced weather forecasting capacity in terms of hardwareEvolving arrangements in the process of fast tracking mitigation measures for flood and hydromet eventsHeightened socio-political dimensions relative to awareness level and Philippine development planning
9 Disasters and NHMS All sectors realized the importance of HMS the need to share data and other information to other NMHS’ in the region.Establishment of mechanism for public-private partnership in disaster reconstruction
10 Assessment of NHMS in the Philippines Automation program to address need for accurate and frequent updates on severe weatherDoppler radar installation Transport, construction, industryTailor-made forecast AgricultureUpgrading of facilities increase value of forecast productsPursuing commercialization of some specialized products to private companies and others (aviation, shipping, etc.)
11 PAGASA as NHMS: National set-up Mandate: to provide weather, climate, agro-met and hydrological services in the Philippines for public safety and in support of economic development; to disseminate official time and provide basic astronomical services.
12 PAGASA as NHMSOperates & maintains 98% of all hydromet observation networks- aviation met service offices in major airportsWeather, climate and hydrology within PAGASA headquartersOfficial forecasts, warnings, advisories, outlooks, press releases on severe weather & extreme events (tropical cyclone, flood, drought, El Nino/La Nina
13 PAGASA plansUpdated Strategic Plan (SP) in line with WMO Regional Association V SP <SP Output of 2011 SP workshop>Long-term Plan/PAGASA Onwards 2020R&D-Operations and Services FrameworkInvestment Portfolio – annual review
14 Planning context Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2011-2016 National S&T PlanNational Disaster Risk Reduction & Management PlanNational Climate Change Action PlanPres. Aquino’s 16-point agenda
15 Philippine Context-PAGASA input Climate projections using PRECIS/Hadley CentreSecond National Communication to IPCCCWeather & climate-dependent economic sectors, 61% of GDP: manufacturing <23%>, agriculture <14%>, post/telecommunication <5%>, construction <4.5%>, fishing <4.3%> forestry, land transport, electricity/gas/water supply, mining/quarrying, hotels/restaurants.
16 Profile of PAGASA “Aging” workforce: 873 staff - 82, R&D; 11, education/training- 11, PhD; 50, MSc: 5, Diploma5 Regional Service DivisionModernization program <3-year plan>:14 Doppler radars; > 150 automatic weather stations (AWS); 100 automatic rain gauges (ARGs)2 Aviation Weather Observing Systems (AWS), 2 marine meteorological buoys, 1 wind profiler, 6 upper air stations, forecast automationUninterrupted service 24/7/365 basisAnnual budget: Php817 million (2011) __% increase from 2010
17 Current Services of PAGASA Weather servicesEarly warning SystemClimatological and agrometeorological servicesHydrological servicesMarine servicesEnvironmental servicesR&D based Expert servicesInformation servicesLibrary servicesTraining servicesInternetPartnerships with other agencies to expand observing network & data sharing
18 PAGASA’s modernization Development of a 3-year modernization planAdditional state-of-the-art equipment, instruments, machines, computers & other facilitiesManpower training & human resource dev.Strengthening Regional Weather Service CentersGreater public awareness through education projects/programs
19 PAGASA’s Collaboration Designated WMO Regional Training Center for South PacificMember of Typhoon CommitteeUNO: WMO, ICAO, UNESCO, UNDP, UNESCAPLinks with UNEP, IPCC, APCN, ICTP, IOC, COST< APCC, RIMESData sharing/Research/Training MOU with NHMCs of Korea, Viet Nam, MongolaJAMSTEC, DWD
20 User needs assessment: Sectors Status, government measuresAgriculture, environmental protection/forest management, water resources, energy production & distribution, transport, construction, land use & planning, recreation/tourism, health, insurance, disaster reduction, military, climate change, media
21 PAGASA Gaps/Limitations Manual production/dissemination of hydromet forecasting & warning services needing data integration & processingOnline hydromet obervations very limited in Visayas & MindanaoQuality of information is fair because of limited automatic editing and production systemNo nowcasts due to lack of appropriate equipment & inadequate skills of technical staff.
22 Institutional capacities: gaps & needs (Table 12.1) IssueGaps and needsData products- Data rescue of historical climate data is urgently needed-High performance Data Quality Management system to support NWP system-Integrated database system for NWP data assimilation-Replacement and timely calibration schedule of met. and climate Instruments in some remote stations-Reliable and low-cost observation data communication system needed for efficiencyHazard analysis-Sufficient number of expert in disaster mitigation and risk assessment-Applied R&D products for domestic weather and climate forecasting still relatively limited
23 Institutional capacities: gaps & needs (Table 12.1) IssueGaps and needsForecasts & warnings- High performance NWP assimilation system in place and operational- Radar and satellite data assimilation and remote sensing-based observation product development- Development of human resources in weather and climate modeling (NWP and climate models)- Flood forecasts showing height and limits of inundation areas- Extended hydrological forecasts- Tailor made forecasts for various sectorsEWS expertise & advisory serviceContinuous upgrading the skills of PAGASA’s operational staffs to utilize and manage the latest technology instruments and systems
24 Institutional capacities No gaps/needs articulated forCooperation with other technical agenciesInternationalNationalDissemination mechanismsCommunication and media
25 Cooperation with other technical agencies National levelInternational levelVarious Departments: Disaster Risk Reduction and Management, Public Works, Energy,Agriculture, Health,Transport,National Mapping,Mines &Geoscience,Civil Defense, etc.Local/provincial governmentsUniversities: University of the Philippines, Ateneo de ManilaASEAN’s SCMGJAMSTEC JapanKOICA KoreaKMA KoreaJICA JapanJMA JapanCMA ChinaDMHCC VietnamTECO TaiwanNorad NorwayUNDPAusAIDUSTDAUSAIDADPCRIMES
26 PAGASA’s Skill Level: Distribution of Rating per Level 36 parameters, 5 levels of rating
29 PAGASA’s Skill Level Rating Level 3 (Moderate): 19/36Human resourcesLevel of staff education Training programme Competitiveness on labour marketManagementOrganizationPublic appreciationCustomer orientationMarket positionDisaster reductionWeather forecastNo. of WF productsNWPHydrological forecastAgrometeorological servicesSupport of R&D to main linesSurface synop networkHydrological obs. NetworkMaintenance & calibration
30 PAGASA’s Skill Level Data sharing/GTS International cooperation Level 4 (Good)Data sharing/GTSInternational cooperationClimate changeUpper-air dataWebpageCompetitivenessPublic visibilityCooperation with mediaForeseen possibility for sustainable devt
31 PAGASA Vision Leading role in hydromet EWS Provide public access to quality productsStrong advocacy in climate change adaptationExcellence in tropical cycle forecasting (SEA)A strong & dynamic organization with inspired & dedicated workforceWell-managed resources
32 Project Proposal 5-year investment plan To improve PAGASA’s services for the benefit of the various socio-economic sectorsReflects the large increase in operational cost to the government as a results of its modernizationDRR that emphasizes coordination and integrated system of informationUser-centered
33 Integration of forecasts, warnings and related information
34 PAGASA’s Commitment Enhancement of weather forecasting capabilities HRDP- Improving capacities of PAGASA forecasting personnelStrengthening flood monitoring, forecasting & warning systemR&D: Strengthening support to climate change adaptation related measuresDRR related S&T program/awareness promotion (incl. establishing a National Meteorological & Climate Center)
35 PAGASA’s Commitment: Enhancement of Weather Forecasting Capabilities Automated Data Integration, Analysis and Display System for Timely and Reliable Weather Information for Disaster Mitigation and Decision SupportDoppler Weather Radar ProgramRolling-out of Automated Weather Stations, Rain gauges, and Water level sensorsWarning system for Marine Navigation and TransportRedundant Communication System
36 Doppler radar network showing existing and under implementation Source: Engineering Technical Services Division, PAGASA.
37 Components International cooperation of experts Modernization of on-going projects (flood forecasting, radar, wind profiler, marine buoy, AWOS, AWS, high-speed PC cluster computing system, upgrading of tecommunication system, acquisition of equipmentSpecialized training involving strengthening of cooperation in SEA for data sharing, information exchange and research collaboration
38 Socio-economic valueFor a 20% reduction in damages, improvements from yield discounted benefits = USD millionOptionCosts (USD million)Cost/benefit ratioStand alone32.701:6.3With regional cooperation27.141:6.4Note: (1) C/B ratios are inferior to the 1:7 ratio set by WMO.(2) Regional system is more desirable.(3) C/B ratios would improve if indirect benefits and benefits beyond 2029 are included.
39 Financing National government & foreign donors Government counterpart funds & technical personnel in project implementationGovernment budget allocation for O&M costs
40 Concluding remarksThe positive direction taken by PAGASA and other stakeholders to reduce disaster risk through hydromet services is proper in the context of WMO. It shall need further tweaking in terms of two major streams: (1) Philippine government’s overall development, and (2) regional demands as evidenced by weather extremes and climate variability.There is need for a constructive regular dialogue among the major stakeholders from S&T community and users.
41 Next StepsA regional system to enhance early warning and disaster risk reduction is mainly beneficial to the Philippines in terms of human resource development.The Philippines can contribute to data/information sharing in the region needing further dialogue among relevant stakeholders.