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Consultation Meeting, 30 April 2012, AIM, Makati, Philippines

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Presentation on theme: "Consultation Meeting, 30 April 2012, AIM, Makati, Philippines"— Presentation transcript:

1 Consultation Meeting, 30 April 2012, AIM, Makati, Philippines
National Hydrometeorological Services (NHMS): An Assessment of the Philippines

2 Tasks undertaken An update and review of the draft report of MMHS under the project “Strengthening Meteorological and Hydrological Services in East Asia” Mar-Apr 2012; UNISDR AP, Bangkok PAGASA’s collaboration <Dr. Nathaniel Servando/Nancy Lance, Planning> Review by staff led by Dr. Susan Espinueva, 19 Apr Interview with DOST/PCIEERD <Raul Sabularse>, 23 Apr Review of socio-economic analysis <Danilo Israel>

3 Analysis according to TOR
Review existing capacity and infrastructure issues; Assess services needs of user community Identify the existing meteorological and relevant data collection and exchange procedures Identify relevant data-sharing protocols and requirements, considering, standards for hydrological data exchange within and among states;

4 Analysis according to TOR
Prepare two investment scenarios for the region assuming that: (a) protocols will be established whereby data are fully and freely, and shared among the member states, and (b) data sharing as it occurs today; Prepare data sharing requirements and standards based on their needs and assuming that capacity will be improved; Prepare detailed investment plans for each country program; Identify potential partnerships between national and international weather agencies based on the technical assistance needs identified in the study.

5 Outline-Draft report (ca 2011)
Executive Summary Philippine Context Results of cost benefit analysis User needs assessment Philippine NHMS: PAGASA - Organization/Resources Current services Network of monitoring stations

6 Outline (Cont’d) Philippines: NHMS (Continuation)
Maintenance, calibration and manufacturing of monitoring facilities Numerical weather prediction (NWP) Information, Communication Technology (ICT) National & international cooperation and data sharing Development plans proposed by PAGASA Summary Recommendations to strengthen NHMS services Project proposal

7 Report: Table of contents
Executive Summary Philippines in a Nutshell (description, economic overview, climate , disaster risk profile, institutional and planning context) Socio-economic Benefits of Hydro-Meteorological Services User Needs Assessment of Hydro-meteorological Services & Information The National Meteorological & Hydrological Services in the Philippines Current Services of the NHMS PAGASAs Network for Monitoring Stations (Surface, remote sensing observations)  Maintenance, Calibration & Manufacturing of Monitoring Facilities Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Information , Communication Technology (ICT) National & International Cooperation and Data Sharing Development Plans Proposed by PAGASA Summary Recommendations to Strengthen the Meteorological & Hydrological Services Project Proposal  Persons Met During the Mission References Appendices

8 General observations since completion of draft
Significant changes in legal and institutional framework in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation/mitigation; mainstreaming Enhanced weather forecasting capacity in terms of hardware Evolving arrangements in the process of fast tracking mitigation measures for flood and hydromet events Heightened socio-political dimensions relative to awareness level and Philippine development planning

9 Disasters and NHMS All sectors realized the importance of HMS
the need to share data and other information to other NMHS’ in the region. Establishment of mechanism for public-private partnership in disaster reconstruction

10 Assessment of NHMS in the Philippines
Automation program to address need for accurate and frequent updates on severe weather Doppler radar installation  Transport, construction, industry Tailor-made forecast  Agriculture Upgrading of facilities  increase value of forecast products Pursuing commercialization of some specialized products to private companies and others (aviation, shipping, etc.)

11 PAGASA as NHMS: National set-up
Mandate: to provide weather, climate, agro-met and hydrological services in the Philippines for public safety and in support of economic development; to disseminate official time and provide basic astronomical services.

12 PAGASA as NHMS Operates & maintains 98% of all hydromet observation networks - aviation met service offices in major airports Weather, climate and hydrology within PAGASA headquarters Official forecasts, warnings, advisories, outlooks, press releases on severe weather & extreme events (tropical cyclone, flood, drought, El Nino/La Nina

13 PAGASA plans Updated Strategic Plan (SP) in line with WMO Regional Association V SP <SP  Output of 2011 SP workshop> Long-term Plan/PAGASA Onwards 2020 R&D-Operations and Services Framework Investment Portfolio – annual review

14 Planning context Philippine Development Plan (PDP) 2011-2016
National S&T Plan National Disaster Risk Reduction & Management Plan National Climate Change Action Plan Pres. Aquino’s 16-point agenda

15 Philippine Context-PAGASA input
Climate projections using PRECIS/Hadley Centre Second National Communication to IPCCC Weather & climate-dependent economic sectors, 61% of GDP: manufacturing <23%>, agriculture <14%>, post/telecommunication <5%>, construction <4.5%>, fishing <4.3%> forestry, land transport, electricity/gas/water supply, mining/quarrying, hotels/restaurants.

16 Profile of PAGASA “Aging” workforce: 873 staff
- 82, R&D; 11, education/training - 11, PhD; 50, MSc: 5, Diploma 5 Regional Service Division Modernization program <3-year plan>: 14 Doppler radars; > 150 automatic weather stations (AWS); 100 automatic rain gauges (ARGs) 2 Aviation Weather Observing Systems (AWS), 2 marine meteorological buoys, 1 wind profiler, 6 upper air stations, forecast automation Uninterrupted service 24/7/365 basis Annual budget: Php817 million (2011) __% increase from 2010

17 Current Services of PAGASA
Weather services Early warning System Climatological and agrometeorological services Hydrological services Marine services Environmental services R&D based Expert services Information services Library services Training services Internet Partnerships with other agencies to expand observing network & data sharing

18 PAGASA’s modernization
Development of a 3-year modernization plan Additional state-of-the-art equipment, instruments, machines, computers & other facilities Manpower training & human resource dev. Strengthening Regional Weather Service Centers Greater public awareness through education projects/programs

19 PAGASA’s Collaboration
Designated WMO Regional Training Center for South Pacific Member of Typhoon Committee UNO: WMO, ICAO, UNESCO, UNDP, UNESCAP Links with UNEP, IPCC, APCN, ICTP, IOC, COST< APCC, RIMES Data sharing/Research/Training MOU with NHMCs of Korea, Viet Nam, Mongola JAMSTEC, DWD

20 User needs assessment: Sectors
Status, government measures Agriculture, environmental protection/forest management, water resources, energy production & distribution, transport, construction, land use & planning, recreation/tourism, health, insurance, disaster reduction, military, climate change, media

21 PAGASA Gaps/Limitations
Manual production/dissemination of hydromet forecasting & warning services needing data integration & processing Online hydromet obervations very limited in Visayas & Mindanao Quality of information is fair because of limited automatic editing and production system No nowcasts due to lack of appropriate equipment & inadequate skills of technical staff.

22 Institutional capacities: gaps & needs (Table 12.1)
Issue Gaps and needs Data products - Data rescue of historical climate data is urgently needed -High performance Data Quality Management system to support NWP system -Integrated database system for NWP data assimilation -Replacement and timely calibration schedule of met. and climate Instruments in some remote stations -Reliable and low-cost observation data communication system needed for efficiency Hazard analysis -Sufficient number of expert in disaster mitigation and risk assessment -Applied R&D products for domestic weather and climate forecasting still relatively limited

23 Institutional capacities: gaps & needs (Table 12.1)
Issue Gaps and needs Forecasts & warnings - High performance NWP assimilation system in place and operational - Radar and satellite data assimilation and remote sensing-based observation product development - Development of human resources in weather and climate modeling (NWP and climate models) - Flood forecasts showing height and limits of inundation areas - Extended hydrological forecasts - Tailor made forecasts for various sectors EWS expertise & advisory service Continuous upgrading the skills of PAGASA’s operational staffs to utilize and manage the latest technology instruments and systems

24 Institutional capacities
No gaps/needs articulated for Cooperation with other technical agencies International National Dissemination mechanisms Communication and media

25 Cooperation with other technical agencies
National level International level Various Departments: Disaster Risk Reduction and Management, Public Works, Energy, Agriculture, Health, Transport, National Mapping, Mines &Geoscience, Civil Defense, etc. Local/provincial governments Universities: University of the Philippines, Ateneo de Manila ASEAN’s SCMG JAMSTEC Japan KOICA Korea KMA Korea JICA Japan JMA Japan CMA China DMHCC Vietnam TECO Taiwan Norad Norway UNDP AusAID USTDA USAID ADPC RIMES

26 PAGASA’s Skill Level: Distribution of Rating per Level
36 parameters, 5 levels of rating

27 PAGASA’s Skill Level

28 PAGASA’s Skills: Level rating
Level 1 (Very bad): 2/36 Lightning detection; environmental observation Level 2 (Poor): 6/36 Networking to regional hydromet organizations Automated processing & visualization R&D Radar data Communication system Data management

29 PAGASA’s Skill Level Rating
Level 3 (Moderate): 19/36 Human resources Level of staff education Training programme Competitiveness on labour market Management Organization Public appreciation Customer orientation Market position Disaster reduction Weather forecast No. of WF products NWP Hydrological forecast Agrometeorological services Support of R&D to main lines Surface synop network Hydrological obs. Network Maintenance & calibration

30 PAGASA’s Skill Level Data sharing/GTS International cooperation
Level 4 (Good) Data sharing/GTS International cooperation Climate change Upper-air data Webpage Competitiveness Public visibility Cooperation with media Foreseen possibility for sustainable devt

31 PAGASA Vision Leading role in hydromet EWS
Provide public access to quality products Strong advocacy in climate change adaptation Excellence in tropical cycle forecasting (SEA) A strong & dynamic organization with inspired & dedicated workforce Well-managed resources

32 Project Proposal 5-year investment plan
To improve PAGASA’s services for the benefit of the various socio-economic sectors Reflects the large increase in operational cost to the government as a results of its modernization DRR that emphasizes coordination and integrated system of information User-centered

33 Integration of forecasts, warnings and related information

34 PAGASA’s Commitment Enhancement of weather forecasting capabilities
HRDP- Improving capacities of PAGASA forecasting personnel Strengthening flood monitoring, forecasting & warning system R&D: Strengthening support to climate change adaptation related measures DRR related S&T program/awareness promotion (incl. establishing a National Meteorological & Climate Center)

35 PAGASA’s Commitment: Enhancement of Weather Forecasting Capabilities
Automated Data Integration, Analysis and Display System for Timely and Reliable Weather Information for Disaster Mitigation and Decision Support Doppler Weather Radar Program Rolling-out of Automated Weather Stations, Rain gauges, and Water level sensors Warning system for Marine Navigation and Transport Redundant Communication System

36 Doppler radar network showing existing and under implementation
Source: Engineering Technical Services Division, PAGASA.

37 Components International cooperation of experts
Modernization of on-going projects (flood forecasting, radar, wind profiler, marine buoy, AWOS, AWS, high-speed PC cluster computing system, upgrading of tecommunication system, acquisition of equipment Specialized training involving strengthening of cooperation in SEA for data sharing, information exchange and research collaboration

38 Socio-economic value For a 20% reduction in damages, improvements from yield discounted benefits = USD million Option Costs (USD million) Cost/benefit ratio Stand alone 32.70 1:6.3 With regional cooperation 27.14 1:6.4 Note: (1) C/B ratios are inferior to the 1:7 ratio set by WMO. (2) Regional system is more desirable. (3) C/B ratios would improve if indirect benefits and benefits beyond 2029 are included.

39 Financing National government & foreign donors
Government counterpart funds & technical personnel in project implementation Government budget allocation for O&M costs

40 Concluding remarks The positive direction taken by PAGASA and other stakeholders to reduce disaster risk through hydromet services is proper in the context of WMO. It shall need further tweaking in terms of two major streams: (1) Philippine government’s overall development, and (2) regional demands as evidenced by weather extremes and climate variability. There is need for a constructive regular dialogue among the major stakeholders from S&T community and users.

41 Next Steps A regional system to enhance early warning and disaster risk reduction is mainly beneficial to the Philippines in terms of human resource development. The Philippines can contribute to data/information sharing in the region needing further dialogue among relevant stakeholders.

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