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While you are waiting… a little about todays featured speaker Health economist Ted R. Miller, Ph.D. is a Senior Research Scientist at the Pacific Institute.

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Presentation on theme: "While you are waiting… a little about todays featured speaker Health economist Ted R. Miller, Ph.D. is a Senior Research Scientist at the Pacific Institute."— Presentation transcript:

1 While you are waiting… a little about todays featured speaker Health economist Ted R. Miller, Ph.D. is a Senior Research Scientist at the Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation and the founder of the Childrens Safety Network Economics and Data Analysis Resource Center. He is an internationally acclaimed expert on the incidence, costs, and consequences of injury, violence, and substance abuse with over 200 publications. His cost estimates are used by the U.S. Department of Transportation, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, the Justice Department, and several foreign governments.

2 Injury Prevention Data Basics for Cost-Outcome Analysis Injury Prevention Co-op 2010 Webinar Series Tuesday, December 14, 2010

3 Advisory Group Janet Brooks, Child Advocacy Manager Primary Children's Medical Center (Salt Lake City, UT) Sean Elwell, Injury Prevention Coordinator Alfred I. duPont Hospital for Children (Wilmington, DE) Jim Harisiades, MPH, Director, Office of Child Advocacy Childrens Memorial Hospital (Chicago, IL) Kira McGroarty, MPH, CHES, CARES Project Director Johns Hopkins Childrens Center (Baltimore, MD) Theresa Rapstine, RN, BSN, Director, Injury Prevention The Childrens Hospital (Aurora, CO) Kimberle Searcy, MPH, Coordinator, Injury Prevention & Community Educational Programs Childrens National Medical Center (Washington, DC) Janice Williams, MSeD, Director, Carolinas Center for Injury Prevention Levine Children's Hospital (Charlotte, NC)

4 Biannual Call for Resources 2011 Biannual call for outstanding projects that can be shared with other childrens hospitals Emphasis on data-supported interventions and evaluations

5 Registration is now open. Carolyn Fowler, PhD, MPH of Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health will offer a workshop presentation the morning of Tuesday, March 15 th. The NACHRI 2011 Creating Connections Conference is an educational opportunity for sharing innovative ideas, providing valuable tools and takeaways and networking. Save the Date March 13 – 16, 2011 Creating Connections

6 Webinar Series 2010 Survey Please respond to a short survey later this week to help us determine the topics for our Injury Prevention Webinar Series for 2011.

7 Dollars & Sense of Preventing Injury, Violence and Substance Abuse Ted Miller

8 Age-Adjusted Injury Death Rates Source: Lois Fingerhut, NCHS, based on 2000-2004 data


10 Costs of injury & substance abuse Savings from prevention

11 Why Cost Social Problems? Single Compact Metric Communication Problem size & risk assessment Advocacy Performance comparison Priority setting & resource allocation Program evaluation

12 You are the Governor of PA 12.5 M residents in PA 125K deaths/year Can I convince you to continue my $2M childhood injury prevention program?

13 We did a thorough evaluation. The results are highly significant statistically. Our program reduced deaths and hospital admissions due to injury by

14 1% !!!

15 Our program prevented 76 child deaths and 1820 hospital admissions last year.

16 Our $2 M program saved PA taxpayers $106 M in medical payments and work losses last year. Thats more than $8 per PA resident.

17 PROBLEM SIZE Annual Spending per U.S. Child, 0-19

18 RISK ASSESSMENT: Unintentional Injury Cost $134 B in 2000, Ages 0-14


20 Driver Age, Crashes w/Injured Teen Passengers

21 Annual Poisoning Costs/Child

22 Cost of Injuries, Ages 0-4 $51 B, 2000 $51 B, 2000 Rape 4.5% Unintended 90.5% Assault 5%

23 Cost of Injuries, Ages 5-9 $52 B, 2000 $52 B, 2000 Rape 26% Assault 2.5% Unintended 71.5%

24 Cost of Injuries, Ages 10-14 $79 B, 2000 Rape 30% Suicide 1.7% Unintended 65.6% Assault 2.7%

25 Cost of Injuries, Ages 15-19 $121 B, 2000 Rape 26% Suicide 6.5% Unintended 57% Assault 10.5%

26 Advocacy Underage Drinking Cost $65 B in 2007

27 How can we make $65 B comprehensible?

28 Use A Yardstick

29 Divide by a Sensible Exposure Measure $5100 Per Underage Customer $2280 Per Youth Ages 14-20 $3.30 Per Illegal Drink

30 Per Illegal Underage Drink

31 Performance Comparison: $/Youth

32 Costs of Underage Drinking per Youth Ages 14-20

33 Gunshot Cost Per Resident

34 Gunshot Costs Per Gun

35 BROAD PRIORITY SETTING Medical Spending, Ages 0-19, 2000

36 Resource Allocation RankAge < 1%Age 1 - 4% 1Stairs or steps15Stairs or steps8 2Beds (not cribs)11Beds7 3Floors9 7 4Baby walkers6Tables6 5 5Doors5 6Baby strollers4High chairs & chairs4 7Sofas4Poisoning3 8Car seats3Bicycles3 Leading Consumer products by % of nonfatal injury cost, US, 1995-1996

37 RankAges 5 - 9% 1Bicycles14 2Monkey bars6 3Swings4 4Beds4 5Doors4 6Stairs or steps4 7In-line/rollerskating4 8Floors4 Leading Consumer Products by % of Nonfatal Injury Cost, US, 1995-1996

38 RankAge 10 – 14%Age 15 - 19% 1Bicycles13Basketball15 2Basketball11Football11 3Football9Bicycles (incl. mountain)6 4Baseball & softball6 5 5In-line/ rollerskating5Stairs or steps4 6Soccer3 4 7Stairs or steps3Floors2 8Trampolines2In-line/ rollerskating2 Leading Consumer Products by % of Nonfatal Injury Cost, US, 1995-1996

39 Program Evaluation A Poison Control Center Call

40 Regional Trauma Care Raises Initial Care Costs by $1,850/Admission, Saving $5,100

41 The Average Child Seat Saves $330 in Insurance and Tax Payments

42 Costs are estimated from a perspective Society Government Insurers Employers

43 Incidence-based costs Lifetime consequences of injuries in one year Measure savings from prevention Must be discounted to present value

44 Burden Categories ECONOMIC COSTS Medical & mental health Other resources/ Tangible Emergency services Victim services Legal/court/jail Insur Admin Property damage Work loss (productivity) Wage work Household work QUALITY OF LIFE

45 Costs of Injury, ages 0-19, 2009: $405 B Pain & Suffering 64% Other Resource 1% Work Loss 26% Medical 9%


47 Treatment Harm Reduction Intervention Prevention

48 160 Interventions YouthAdult Youth & AdultTotal Motor Vehicle1002838 Impaired Driver110011 Open Flame/Burn1089 Violence1517234 Other Injury62311 Substance Abuse2241036 Tobacco417021 Total595051160

49 Data Sources US & some international published and unpublished studies from 1987-2010 Medline & Internet search Bibliographic review Contact with Federal agencies Excluded analyses of occupational, air, rail, & water transport safety programs

50 Methods Costs take societys viewpoint (everyones costs count) Costs given in 2009 dollars Savings from demonstration programs reduced by 25% when scaled up

51 Methods Serious study flaws were corrected when possible Studies were subjectively graded based on the rigor of program cost and effectiveness estimates Studies which showed reductions in fatalities, but ignored nonfatal injuries were excluded

52 Definitions: Costs and Savings Cost per Unit: cost of the intervention for a single individual Total Benefits per Unit: the amount the intervention saved by preventing injuries & other problems Aggregate Benefit/Unit = Total Benefits - Cost Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR): savings from preventing injuries divided by cost of the intervention Cost-effective: the BCR > 1.0 Return on investment in the intervention exceeds amount invested

53 Definitions: Costs and Savings Cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year (Cost of intervention – medical & other resource savings)/ QALY: A QALY is a health outcome measure that assigns a value of 1 to a year of perfect health & 0 to death. The QALY measure captures the work loss & quality of life savings Cost-saving: cost/QALY < 0 which means that the cost of the intervention is less than the savings generated in medical and other resource costs

54 Choosing Interventions We recommend interventions with a BCR $100,000 should rarely be implemented Some interventions with low BCRs may address unique component of injury problem Laws generally would have lower costs & higher BCRs from a government perspective

55 Notable Newly Added Interventions BCR 20-Bed Domestic Violence Shelter11 Speed Camera19 Red Light Camera4 Sprinklers in New Ranch House6 Sprinklers in New Colonial or Town House3 Mattress Flammability Standard3 Baby Walker Redesign - Less Falls Down Stairs46 Impact-Absorbing Playground Surfacing2


57 NON-OFFENDER VIOLENCE PREVENTION Cost/ child BCR Nurse-family partnership home visitation to 1 st born $10,7004.8 Parent-teacher training$4,6003.9 Big brothers-big sisters mentoring $4,8001.8 Head start + 12 home visits$20,0004.9

58 Violence often is part of a problem complex Cost of Violence

59 Cost of Youth Crime

60 JUVENILE VIOLENCE MEASURES Other Impact BCR Treatment foster careY65 Multisystemic therapyY39 Functional family therapyY32 Aggression replacement training N90 Adolescent diversionN39 Intensive probation supervision N4.4 Boot CampN0.1 Scared StraightN0


62 A $12 bike helmet for kids 0-4 saves $580 (BCR 48) $60 $210 $310 Medical cost Work loss Quality of life

63 A $12 Bike Helmet for Kids 3-14 Saves Insurers $41

64 A $19 bike helmet for ages 15 & above saves $280 (BCR 16) $40 $80 $160 Medical cost Work loss Quality of life

65 A $52 child seat saves $2,180 (BCR 42) $155 $210 $300 $1,515 Medical cost Other resources Work loss Quality of life

66 Misuse Reduction (Latch System + Installation Checks) Saves $570/seat & Costs $7 (BCR 81) $60 $160 $290 Medical cost Other resources Work loss Quality of life

67 A booster seat with back costs $35 and saves $2,470 (BCR = 71) $355 $200 $570 $1,345 Medical cost Other resources Work loss Quality of life

68 Equipping A Home with Smoke Alarms + Maintenance Costs $44 & Saves $770 (BCR 18) < $1 $110 $650

69 American Academy of Pediatrics TIPP Sheet Counseling for Ages 0-4 Costs $11/Visit & Saves $100/Visit (BCR 9)

70 Harlem Hospital Safe Communities Program $75/Child/Year Saves $3,800


72 Program Selection No one intervention will reduce most problems more than 10%-15% Need a package of complementary interventions

73 DWI Deaths

74 ALL DRIVERS % Redux DWI Deaths BCR Enforce SIP Laws11%71 Admin License Revoc6.5%17.08 Max Driver BAC7%14 Intensive Breath Tests15%7 Server Training17%3.4 YOUTH 0-Tolerance LT 214% (20%)25 Grad License/Curfew2% (5%)8 21 MLDA4% (19%)3.6


76 RECIDIVISTS % Redux DWI Deaths BCR/ ROI Ignition Interlock7%7 Impoundment4%5 Intensively Supervised Treatment 4%4 House Arrest3%3 BROADER IMPACT Child Seat LawLT 1%42 M/C Helmet Law2.5%3 Primary Belt Law10%18

77 BROADER MEASURES% Redux DWI Deaths BCR/ ROI Regional Trauma System14%2.7 Brief ETOH Intervention6%31 20% Tax on ETOH4%9 30% Tax on ETOH6%6


79 Selective/ Educational Universal/ Environ- mental Indicated/ Behavioral Prevention Typology

80 BCRs for School-Based Programs (T=tobacco, V=Violence) PROGRAMCost/ Kid MJ redux Alc redux BCR All Stars T$1706%7%36 Keepin It Real T$1605%11%28 Life Skills Training T$2703% 1%22 Project Northland T$4907% 19 Project Star Midwest Prev Pgm T $4907%3%11 Project Alert$1404%0%4

81 BCRs for Youth Development Programs PROGRAMCost/ Kid MJ redux Alc redux BCR Family Matters T$190?7%32 FamilyStrengtheningT$110015%18%11 AdolescntTransitionsT$1500?14%8 SocialCompetncPromo$430?11%6 SOAR V Dropout$37002%6 Child Development Pjt$2804%4.5%5 Guiding Good Choices (Prep f/Drug-FreeYrs) V $8709% (0%) 8%3

82 Enforce- ment Policies & Laws Public Support - Norms Environmental Prevention Public Private Passive


84 BCRs for Environmental Interventions (costs & benefits computed comparably) BCR 20% Alcohol Tax9 30% Alcohol Tax6 Reduce Outlet Density by 10%9 Restrict Alcohol Sales Hours/Days9 TV Alcohol Advertising Ban9 21-Minimum Drinking Age4 Enforce Serving Intoxicated Patrons Law71 Mandatory Server Training3

85 Program Selection Criteria Return on investment Aggregate benefits Affordability Local priorities & problems Appropriateness for the target population Political feasibility Government savings Immediacy of the impacts (weeks versus years) Intervention overlap Unevaluated spillover effects

86 21 Minimum Drinking Age

87 Reduces % of youth who drink & binge Raises age of initiation which lowers the risk of alcoholism in adulthood Reduces youth DWI deaths by 19% Reduces alcohol-involved youth suicides by 27%

88 Confuses college presidents

89 Retail Alcohol Monopolies (State Stores) Reduce Underage Drinking

90 If Sell Off Retail Spirits Monopolies in VA or WA Spirits consumption rises 21% Total consumption rises 6-7% State loses $200-300M/year in revenue net of taxes on added sales The real price is a crime wave State pays $50 million/year for added harm; 225 residents die/year Industrys slides are bogus; label 6 states w/o retail monopolies as control states

91 $1,800 $10,600 $8,800 PCC Service Costs Other Medical Costs Net Savings 43 human exposure calls from rural areas prevent one hospital admission (Medical ROI 5.9)

92 BCR for State to break even on its investment

93 If target intervention to Medicaid recipients 25%-50% of medical care savings go to the state

94 Laws that interfere with personal freedom would have much higher BCRs if looked at governmental perspective only The job of the State is to protect and enhance the welfare of its citizens Like medical care, preventive health & safety efforts are designed to save lives & increase quality of life The savings to citizens & employers count

95 Who pays the annual $500B crash bill? Families 83% Employers 11% Government 6%

96 Fringe Benefit Payments

97 Crash Injuries/1000 Working Adults/Year (Including Dependents) Main Reason = Exposure: Most Miles Are Driven Outside Work

98 Online Resources ROI fact sheets, costs of child abuse & neglect by state at showPubByTopic.asp?pkTopicID=10 Underage drinking by State (+DC, PR) – Hospitalized injury by cause & age group in 38 states, 2007; impaired driving in 50 + DC – Report on SA prevention ROI -- Crime costs by state, total or alcohol & drug involved : e-mail (also use that address for problems or free technical assistance. Dexter Taylor, PhD, 301-755-2796)

99 References: Injury Costs & Prevention Savings The Cost of Child and Adolescent Injuries and The Savings from Prevention, T Miller, E Finkelstein, E Zaloshnja, D Hendrie. In K Liller (ed.), Injury Prevention for Children and Adolescents: Research, Practice, and Advocacy, Washington DC: American Public Health Association, 15- 64, 2005. Incidence and Economic Burden of Injuries in the United States, 2000, with E Finkelstein, P Corso, T Miller, I Fiebelkorn, E Zaloshnja, B Lawrence. New York City: Oxford University Press, 2006. Cost-Outcome Analysis in Injury Prevention and Control: 84 Estimates for the United States, T Miller, D Levy, Medical Care, 38:6, 562-582, 2000.

100 SUMMARY Injury is the leading child health risk Prevention yields large savings for taxpayers Unrealistic to expect State govt savings unless we target to Medicaid population Laws & enforcement often save the State $ People do not understand big numbers Select costs to suit the audience You cannot spend some savings Put a face with the $

101 Q&A Please hit *6 to un-mute your telephones May also ask questions using the public chat box on the lower left corner of your screen

102 NACHRI Child Advocacy Staff Karen Seaver Hill, Director, (703) 797-6035 Nancy Hanson, Associate Director, (703) 797-6091 Stacy Biddinger, Assistant Director, (703) 797-6191 Anne Barsanti, Associate, (703) 797-6042

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