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Session 91 Comparative Emergency Management Session 9 Slide Deck.

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Presentation on theme: "Session 91 Comparative Emergency Management Session 9 Slide Deck."— Presentation transcript:

1 Session 91 Comparative Emergency Management Session 9 Slide Deck

2 Session 92 Session Objectives 1.Provide a Detailed Definition and Description of Risk in the Context of the Emergency Management Profession. 2.Provide a background on the various forms of consequences considered in a hazard risk assessment and analysis. 3.Explain how Likelihood and Consequence may both be represented as either qualitative or quantitative values. 4.Describe the Process by which Hazard Likelihood and Consequence are Analyzed. 5.Explain how Individual Risks are Evaluated in a Standardized Format. 6.Explore Examples of Risk Management in Practice

3 Session 93 Risk Affects all people and all communities without exception, irrespective of geographic or socioeconomic limits Every economic, social, policy, or political action or choice made by government and its constituents, and the businesses that operate in those communities, involves specific, often unknown, factors of risk Risk is Individual and Collective

4 Session 94 Risk Equation RISK = LIKELIHOOD X CONSEQUENCE

5 Session 95 Consequence Factors Deaths / Fatalities (Human) Injuries (Human) Damages (cost, reported in currency, generally US dollars for international comparison)

6 Session 96 Direct Losses those first order consequences which occur immediately after an event, such as the deaths and damage caused by the throwing down of buildings in an earthquake (Smith, 1992) Examples: Fatalities, Injuries, Relocation Costs, Cleanup/Repair Costs

7 Session 97 Indirect Losses May emerge much later and may be much less easy to attribute directly to the event. Examples: Income Loss, Mental Illness, Loss of Institutional Knowledge

8 Session 98 Tangible Losses Those for which a dollar value can be assigned. Examples: Response Costs, Repair Costs, Inventory Loss

9 Session 99 Intangible Losses Cannot be expressed in universally accepted financial terms. Examples: Cultural Loss, Stress, Mental Illness, Aesthetic Loss

10 Session 910 Quantitative Analysis of Risk Uses mathematical and/or statistical data to derive numerical descriptions of risk. Gives a specific data point (dollars, probability, frequency, or number of injuries/fatalities, for example)

11 Session 911 Qualitative Analysis of Risk Uses defined terms (words) to describe and categorize the likelihood and consequences of risk. Allows each qualifier (word) to represent a range of possibilities.

12 Session 912 Additional Consequence Measures Complexity or Difficulty Associated With Emergency Operations Disruptions to Lives and Livelihoods (Social Disruption) Disruption to economy Environmental impact

13 Session 913 Depth of Analysis The amount of time and money available The seriousness of the risk The complexity of the risk

14 Session 914 Full Damage Consequence Analysis Losses to Structures Losses to Contents Losses to Structure Use and Function and Cost of Displacement

15 Session 915 Qualitative Example 1

16 Session 916 Qualitative Example 2

17 Session 917 Qualitative Example 3

18 Session 918 Risk Matrix

19 Session 919 FEMA Risk Matrix Values Class A. High-risk condition with highest priority for mitigation and contingency planning (immediate action) Class B. Moderate to high risk condition with risk addressed by mitigation and contingency planning (prompt action) Class C. Risk condition sufficiently high to give consideration for further mitigation and planning (planned action) Class D. Low-risk condition with additional mitigation contingency planning (advisory in nature)

20 Session 920 Risk Registers Name of Risk Qualitative Likelihood Value Qualitative Consequence Value Level of risk Priority Rating Additional Information as needed

21 Session 921 SMAUG Methodology Seriousness Manageability Acceptability Urgency Growth

22 Session 922 Australia / New Zealand Establish the Context Objectives Stakeholders Criteria Define key elements Identify the Risks Hazards analysis Vulnerability analysis Analyze the Risks Review controls Likelihoods Consequences Level of risk Evaluate the Risks Evaluate risks Rank Risks Treat the Risks Identify options Select the best responses Develop risk treatment plan Implement Communicate and Consult Monitor and Review

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