Presentation on theme: "Money and Inflation real variables vs. nominal variables? (different from real and nominal value) Classical Dichotomy? Recall: the definition of Inflation."— Presentation transcript:
1 Money and Inflationreal variables vs. nominal variables? (different from real and nominal value)Classical Dichotomy?Recall: the definition of InflationLong run vs short run?
2 The Money MarketQty of money demanded: is the amount of money that households and firms choose to hold.n.b: the price of money is the nominal interest rate and represents the opportunity cost of holding Money.recall the diff. b/t nominal and real interest rateConceptual ex.Suppose you have $100 in pocket, what would you do if the nominal interest rate is 2% vs. 25%.Would that decision change if that change is due to inflation versus the real interest rate?The demand for money curve is unlike any other demand curve the students have met before.It is a demand curve for a stock to hold, not a demand curve for a flow to use.The interest rate on the next best alternative asset is the opportunity cost of holding money, which means that it is the relevant price against which we draw the demand for money curve.Student’s find these ideas difficult and they need to be explained carefully.
3 Changes in the Demand for Money (shifters) 1) Change the in the general price level (+)2) Change in real GDP (+)3) Change in Financial technology (Could go in either direction)Ex) Debit cards vs. credit cards:
4 Money SupplyThe money supply is perfectly inelastic. (what does this mean?)It is fixed and determined by FED policy.Question:1) List and describe the three policy tools used by the FED to control the money supply.2) What is the money multiplier? What factors influence the size of the multiplier and how?ex. If the current nominal interest rate is 6%, and the money market equilibrium int. rate is 4%. Analyze what happens in the money market. In your responsei)state whether persons buy or sell bonds. Explain the logic.We are careful to maintain the hard-learned distinction between supply and quantity supplied. We use the term “supply of money” to mean the supply schedule or curve and not the “quantity of money.”
5 ExamplesEx. Analyze the money market after a monetary injection by the FED. In your response describei) how the FED may conduct a monetary injection.ii) what happens to the money supplyiii) what persons decide to do with commercial paperiv) The equilibrium nominal interest rate and quantity of money.Ex. Suppose a change in bank regulation increased the availability of credit cards (ex Delaware Act 1981) .i) Analyze how the money market is impacted?ii) Identify two tools of the FED to stabilize interest rates.?
6 The Money Market in the Long Run Idea is that money market determines prices in the long run. How?Point- Nominal interest rate is fixed in the long run.Scenario: The Fed conducts policy and lowers the bank reserve requirement . Evaluate the impact in the money market in the short run and long run.Steps- short runWhich curve shifts and in what direction?What decision do persons make at the original interest rate?Describe the new equilibrium interest rate and quantity of money.Long run4) How does the lower interest rate impact spending and prices?5) What is the final equilibrium interest rate and quantity of money?The Fed can influence short term interest rates in the short run. But in the long run, the Fed must come into line with more fundamental market forces. In the market loanable funds, long-term interest rates balance supply and demand at a nominal interest rate that incorporates the expected long-term inflation rate. Other (short term) interest rates align with the long term rate because long term and short term bonds are close substitutes. Given the equilibrium interest rate, if the quantity of money exceeds the quantity that people want to hold, they spend the excess and the price level rises.
8 The Quantity Theory of Money Quantity theory of money: when real GDP equals potential GDP, an increase in the quantity of money brings an equal percentage increase in the price level (other things remaining the same).The velocity of circulation = V -- the number of times a $ circulatesThe quantity of money = MThe price level = PReal GDP = Ythe equation of exchange isM V = P Y (1)We can derive an equation for Price, and the inflation rate.P=( M x V)/YInfl.= growth rate of money+ velocity growth rate – growth rate RGDP
9 Lets see this in actionEx) if an economy sells pizza for $10, the quantity of money in the economy is $50, and a dollar passes hands an average of 20 times in a year.1)How many pizzas are produced output if all resources are used?2)What is the value of nominal GDP?Ques: If the real interest rate is fixed what does this mean for the nominal interest rate, and the quantity of money demanded?
10 Practice questions.How is the price of a financial asset, such as government bonds, related to the nominal interest rate?Suppose the quantity of money is greater than the quantity of money demanded. With words and in diagrams describe the adjustment in the money market in the long run and short run?3) A government policymaker suggests “Double the money supply and U.S. citizens’ realincomes will double.” In the long run, is this policy advice correct? Which variable is changed in the long run?5) What is the best explanation for differences in nominal interest rates between countries? (Hint recall how the global market determines the real interest rate) 6) Suppose the Fed sells government bonds. Use a graph of the money market to show what this does to the value of money. How does your response relate to the change in the price level which occurs?
11 THE COST OF INFLATIONEx. If an economy remains at full employment. What is the inflation rate if velocity growth is 1% and the FED increases money by 1% each year?Defn: Hyperinflation- An inflation rate that exceeds 50 percent a month.Ques: Why is inflation bad?For the macro-economy is rising cost of living necessarily bad? (Hint- imagine a country with only one family.)CostsTax costsShoe-leather costsConfusion costsUncertainty costsThe cost of inflation depends on its rate and its predictability