1. Pinnacle Advisory Group
OUTLOOK 2006
Matthew R. Arrants, ISHC
Pinnacle Advisory Group

2. Forecasting Tools Citywide Conventions Hotel Booking Pace
Sales and Marketing Initiatives

3. Citywide Characteristics
More than 2,000 Rooms on Peak Night
Create “Compression”
Associations (5-10 year booking window)
Corporations and Trade Shows (1-4 year booking window)

4. Impact of Citywide Conventions

5. Citywide Impact Measuring the Impact to Market Performance
“Back Bay Six” and Boston Less “Back Bay Six”
Compared RevPAR On Citywide Days to Days When there Was No Citywide the Same Day the Prior Year
Should compare convention days.

6. Citywide Impact
This graph illustrates the change in RevPAR on days in which there were citywide conventions as compared to the same day the prior year when there was no convention for the Back Bay Set. (Marriott, Westin, Sheraton, Hilton, Fairmont, and Park Plaza) and compares that to the overall annual change in RevPAR. The red bars illustrate the change resulting from Citywide conventions. The red line shows the overall change in RevPAR for that year. What’s important here is the variance between the growth on citywide days versus the total growth in RevPAR. As you can see the impact of citywides is significant. For example in 2004 days in which there were citywides experienced RevPAR growth of 39% when the market grew by only 15%. On average RevPAR growth on citywide days outpaced total RevPAR growth by 21 percentage points for the Back Bay Six
RevPAR growth on days that there are citywide conventions is dramatically higher than the annual market average

7. Citywide Impact
Citywide conventions are not only important for the Back Bay Six they benefit the rest of the city as well. Here you can see the impact of citywides on the rest Boston. Again the true measure of the benefit citywides is the variance between the growth experienced on citywide days as compared to the growth for the entire period. Here you can see that in 2004 RevPAR grew by 26 percent as compared to growth of only 15 percent for the entire year. On average RevPAR growth on Citywide days outpaced total growth by an average of 8 percentage points.
Citywide Conventions also benefit non-convention hotels

8. Actual and Projected Citywide Conventions 2005-2007

9. Citywide Conventions
The booking window for Citywides has grown much shorter over recent years. As you’ll see in the next slide we have had significant pick up between July of the previous year and the end of the following year.

10. Citywide Room Nights
The booking window for Citywides has grown much shorter over recent years. As you can see between July 2004 and the end of 2005 we picked up 3 citywide conventions with approximately 33,000 room nights. Between July 2005 and the end of 2006 we picked up 4 citywide conventions with approximately 65,000 room nights.

11. Citywide Outlook 2007
Based on the tentative groups that are currently on the books the CMC expects to pick up three citywides between now and the end of next year with approximately 55,000 room nights. That puts us about three percent or about 14,000 rm nts behind As a point of reference 14,000 room nights is less than one-quarter of one occupancy point. Also, its worth noting that 2006 was a pretty abnormal year. We picked up two citywides as a result of Hurricane Katrina (Oncology and Lions) and one due to the labor dispute in San Fran (Teachers).
While I’ve devoted a lot of time to citywides, they are of less and less importance Given the amount of convention space we now have in the city we can have two non-citywide conventions with just under 2000 rooms on peak that generate considerably more compression than any one citywide. Therefore, the hotel booking pace provides a better indicator of future market performance.

12. Hotel Booking Pace

13. Hotel Booking Pace
Definite Group Room Nights on the Books at a Given Point in Time
Back Bay Six
Sheraton, Marriott Copley, Westin Copley, Hilton Back Bay, Fairmont, Park Plaza
Waterfront Six
Marriott Long Wharf, Westin Waterfront, Hilton Logan, Seaport, Hyatt Harborside, Intercontinental
In August 2005 we began tracking the Waterfront set….

14. Back Bay Six Day by Day Group Rooms
Here is a good example of non-citywide compression. This is taken from the monthly booking pace reports we prepare for the GBCVB. It shows the definite group room nights on the books at the Back Bay Six between Sept 17 and 20 and what percentage of available rooms are committed. Clearly when more than 50% of the total available rooms are already committed to groups during such a strong period for transient demand, you’re likely to get some decent compression…
For information on purchasing Group Booking Pace Reports for the Back Bay and Waterfront sets contact Beth Stehley at

15. Explain how to read the graph
Explain how to read the graph. The only soft months are September and December. For the year we are 14 percent ahead of 2005 pace. While the latter half of the year is not as strong the last six months we are 6 percent of 2005 thanks to a very strong July.

16. Clearly 2007 is not looking as great as 2006 for the Back Bay Six
Clearly 2007 is not looking as great as 2006 for the Back Bay Six.one of the major reasons for this is the increased supply next year. Remember this graph does not just track convention demand but all group demand. This hotel (the Westin) and the Intercontinental have already booked considerable business for next year as you’ll see in a moment.
Getting back to the soft spots for next year, You can see the big holes here are in June and July. Fortunately these are fairly strong months for leisure travel. Obviously January is going to be tough to fill but things are looking better for May, June and July with citywides pending for each of those months. While they wont close the gap, they will improve the situation. Also, I’d point out that things really aren’t that bad. Notice how strong the last four months of the year are. At the end of the day, 2007 is only only down 5% to 2006.

17. 2007 Waterfront And Back Bay Booking Pace by Month

18. When you combine the Back Bay and Waterfront sets you can see that there are still some holes in January, June and July but overall 2007 is approximately 11 percent ahead of 2006.

19. Future Of the Hynes
Commission Recommendation to Keep Facility Open as a Convention Center
Senate President and Speaker of the House are Advocates for the Hynes
Expected to remain open indefinitely

20. Sports Marketing Deutche Bank Championship – September 2007
USA Track and Field Indoor Championships – February 2007
Olympic Running Trials – April 2008
NCAA Men’s Lacrosse Championships – May 2008
Sports Lawyers Association – May 2008
Men’s NCAA Frozen Four Hockey Championships – March 2009
Women’s NCAA Frozen Four Hockey Championships – March 2009
NCAA Men’s Regional Basketball – March 2009
ACC Baseball Championship - May 2009
The Bureau has stepped up its efforts to attract major sporting events with the recent appointment of Stephanie Pappas as Director of International Meetings and Sports Development.

21. Summary
Group Room Nights at the “Back Bay Six” are up 6% for 2H 2006 compared to 2H 2007
2006 will be a record convention year for Boston
Citywide Convention Demand for 2007 is on pace with 2006
Citywides are crucial to the overall health of the Market

22. Pinnacle Advisory Group
OUTLOOK 2006
Matthew R. Arrants, ISHC
Pinnacle Advisory Group