Presentation on theme: "U.S., W. European and World Wide Market and Trends for Laser and Inkjet Supplies John Shane Director, Communication Supplies Consulting Service September."— Presentation transcript:
1 U.S., W. European and World Wide Market and Trends for Laser and Inkjet Supplies John ShaneDirector, Communication Supplies Consulting Service September 2010
2 Focused Credible Responsive Visionary Industry analyst firm focused on the consumer imaging, office document technology and production printing & publishing industries.UKBostonBeijingTokyoFocused Credible Responsive Visionary
4 U.S. Print Volume (B) “Print” volume withstood previous recessions Explosion of devices, analog to digitalHint of some impact from recessionsPrint volume declines in ‘08 and ‘09Market is matureRecession is be deeperOffice market is most vulnerableFewer people and less activityFocus on costs, electronic workflowProduction is more resistantAnalog to digitalHigher value pages (color)Home may be the most resistant –but for photos?
5 Recession’s current impact on the supplies market Overall print volumes are down in ‘09, 9% from the peak in 2007Reduced headcount and activityEmerging MPS impactGreat incentive to save money on office supplies3rd Party Product gains share but not enough to offset overall decline35% share for B/W printer, 23% share for B/W MFPS, 6% share for Color devicesDuplex ratesRestricted color useGrowing interest in Managed Print ServicesPrint volume reductions come with MPS
6 Recession’s longer term impact on the supplies market Slower growth than previously forecastedSlow return of white collar employmentResidual reluctance to increase costsSlower decline for B/W printingSlower shift to color, on-going controlsSome aftermarket share gains to stay?MPS gains share and impacts suppliesPrint volume reductions within an organizationShift to less-paper processesIncreased use of 3rd partyDuplex printingShift to higher volume machines with lower CPP?InfoTrends believe that the recession will have a long term impact on print
8 U.S. & Western Europe Installed Base Forecast Units (000)
9 U.S. & Western Europe Total Print Volume Forecast (B)
10 World Total Print Volume (B) Electrophotography and Desktop Inkjet
11 World Total Print Volume (B) Electrophotography and Desktop Inkjet
12 U.S. & Western Europe Electrophographic Marking Supplies $M at Final POS Electrophotographic Copier and Printer and MFPTotal Value=Toner, Developer, photoreceptor and Residual CartridgeUSWestern Europe
13 U.S. & Western Europe Electrophotographic Marking Supplies $M at Final POS Electrophotographic Copier and Printer and MFPUSWestern Europe
14 U.S. Serial Inkjet Cartridge Units (M) Serial Inkjet Printers/MFPs Small growth in cartridge volumes….Cartridges increase despite stable print volumes as OEMs introduce smaller yield cartridges to lower the basket/entry price of their consumables.US larger again – Photo printing less of a home activity in Europe, office printing more likely to be black.USWestern Europe
15 U.S. Serial Inkjet Cartridge $M at Final POS Serial Inkjet Printers/MFPs Revenues flat due to OEMs trying to lower their consumables entry price. Inkjet unlikely to decline due to maturity of the market…..Product evolution (i.e. Wi-Fi etc) may cause shift in overall IB levels, but print volume expected to remain stable.USWestern Europe
16 U.S. Facsimile Marking Supplies $M at Final POS Revenue declines inline with IBUSWestern Europe
17 U.S. Total Marking Supplies $M at Final POS Western Europe
18 World Total Marking Supplies Value at Final POS $M Electrophotography and Desktop Inkjet
19 World Total Marking Supplies $M at Final POS Electrophotography and Desktop Inkjet
20 WW Marking Supplies Value at Final Point of Sale $M
22 U.S. Aftermarket Share of Total Marking Supplies $M Electrophotography WE
23 U.S. Total Aftermarket Supplies Revenue at Final POS $M Electrophotography WE
24 U.S B/W Laser Cartridge Channels 2009 Share of Units
25 U.S Color Laser Cartridge Channels 2009 Share of Units
26 U.S. Color Aftermarket Issues Aftermarket penetration about 7%Higher for separates and for non-Chemically produced tonerLower for AIOsDeveloperAIOs very difficult . Barriers are:TonerMatching toner to drumProcess problems/reliabilityReseller concerns?Users are ready to try aftermarket colorResellers may not be ready to offer them
27 Leading laser cartridge manufactures supplying to the US market Remanufactured CartridgesNew BuildClover (US, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam)Ninestar / G&G (China)(Clover) West Point Products (US)Print-rite (China)Nukote (Mexico)Uninet (China)MSE (US)Media Sciences (production in China)PTI (US)GPI (Taiwan)Print-Rite (China)GCC (Hong Kong)Turbon (US/Europe/Asia)Hana (Korea)AFEX (China)MMC (China)Mipo (Hong Kong)Others
28 Q47: Toner Cartridges Typically Purchased for Laser PRINT Devices Which type of toner cartridges does your company typically buy for your laser printers or multi-function devices?N =
29 Q53: Whether Toner Cartridges are Refilled For the non-OEM, refilled, remanufactured, compatible toner cartridges that you use.N =
30 U.S Inkjet Cartridge Unit Demand (M) Integrated cartridges remain the majority in the US, due to the dominance of HP. Decline in lexmark has been offset by growth of Dell.
31 Western Europe Inkjet Cartridge Unit Demand (M) Tank based cartridges are much larger in Europe due to the strength of Epson and Canon. In addition, the emerging brands (Brother, Kodak) both use tank based systems, and even newer Lexmark models are switching to tanks. As a result, tank based cartridges are expected to increase their share over the coming years.
32 U.S. Aftermarket Share of Inkjet Cartridge Units Some significant shifts were seen in 2007 when Epson suceeded in getting the ITC injunction. Around the same time HP’s agreement with Staples also saw their AM share impacted, and Canon’s shift to integrated cartridges and use of encrypted chip technology also had a visible impact on their loss to AM.
33 Western Europe Aftermarket Share of Inkjet Cartridge Units Less volatility in Europe – Canon has succeeded most due to their introduction of integrated carts and encrypted cartridges…..Brother have seen an increased loss over time as their installed base has increased, and they now present a more sizeable opportunity. Lexmark’s loss to AM has also increased over time as their installed base has aged as they have reduced the number of new printers they are bringing to market.
34 U.S. Aftermarket Share of Inkjet Cartridge Units Here we clearly see the effect that the Epson ITC……
35 U.S. Inkjet Aftermarket Product Types Integrated CartridgesWhile you wait cannibalising other AM solutions rather than impacting on the OEM share
36 U.S. Inkjet Aftermarket Product Types Ink tanksGrowth in Reman driven by transition of Epson product away from new build……again while you wait impacting upon other AM rather than OEM
37 Western Europe Aftermarket Share of inkjet Cartridge Units In Europe the aftermarket share of tanks has declined but is expected to recover slightly over time. On integrated cartridges the AM share is likely to decline slightly as Lexmark becomes a less important player, and the average moves more in favour of HP
38 U.S Inkjet Cartridge Channels 2009 Share of Units Aftermarket in US heavily reliant on Internet channel……Retail channel only stocking most popular SKUs/brands to maximise shelf space
39 Q48: Inkjet Cartridges Typically Purchased for Inkjet PRINT Devices Which type of inkjet cartridges does your company typically buy for your inkjet printers or multi-function devices?N =
40 Q54: Whether Inkjet Cartridges are Refilled For the non-OEM, refilled, remanufactured, compatible inkjet cartridges that you use.N =
41 MPS Impact on Supplies and our evolving need to print
42 Reasons for Office Printing EmergingRapidGrowthPeakingDecliningFadingRead and DiscardTemporary ReferencePrinting GrowthTransactionsCollaboration/Editing?Archival/StorageTime
43 Document Printing Migration and Losses Short run colorVariable dataConventionalPrintPhoto BooksOn demandMarketingMobilitySocial MediaPromotionalProductionDigitalNewspapersFormsMagazinesInvoicesOfficePrintStatementsReports/Memos
46 U.S. MPS Share of Supplies Market $M at Final point of Sale – Supplies in Office Environment (Excludes Home and Production)
47 Percentage of Money Initially Saved by Assessment U.K. France, GermanyN =Respondents who are currently engaged in MPS
48 MPS disrupting the supplies market Less print in the workflowMore duplex printingLower cost per pageMigration to more cost effective devicesCost pressure across all classes of office devicesIncreased use of 3rd party suppliesControls on colorCost per coverage pricing model?Disruptions in the distribution channel
49 Distribution Issues MPS impact on the channels? Who will lose who will win the business as it shifts under an MPS planAll suppliers need to position for MPSWhat is the role of the contract stationer in MPS?What is the role of the internet specialist?Distributors?How does MPS change supplies buying and delivery?
50 U.S. MPS Impact on Supplies 2010 Level of MS ServiceChannel Legacy of MPS ProviderEnd User Organization Size
51 Mean Importance of Criteria in Choosing to Engage in Managed Print Services – Total (Q.26) (1) Q.26: Rate the importance to each of the following criteria to why you chose to engage in Managed Print Services? (1 to not important to 5 extremely important)Extremely ImportantNot ImportantN = 439U.K. France, Germany
52 Importance of Criteria for Engaging in Managed Print Services (1) Rate the importance to each of the following criteria to why you chose to engage in Managed Print Services?U.S MPS StudyNot ImportantVery ImportantN = 343Source: Professional & Managed Print Services Multi Client Study
53 Current Types of Supplies Companies Are Getting Through MPS Services (Q.88) Q.88: What types of supplies are you currently getting through your MPS services?U.K. France, GermanyN = 208Respondents who are currently engaged in MPS
54 Type of Supplies Received Through MPS Services What types of supplies are you currently getting through your MPS services?N = 157 Respondents involved or familiar with Managed Print Services who are currently using Managed Print Services for their companyU.S MPS StudySource: Professional & Managed Print Services Multi Client Study
55 General Category of Supplies Company Opt to Use More of What general category of supplies did your company opt to use more of as a result of its document assessment?N = 76 Respondents that have used/is using document assessment software or has engaged in some sort of consulting servicesU.S MPS StudySource: Professional & Managed Print Services Multi Client Study
56 Marking Supplies Distribution Channel Share 100%90%Other Channels80%Internet SpecialistOther Consumer Retailer70%Which channels willmake way for MPS?Paper MerchantHardware Vendor DirectForms MFR/Dist.60%Direct Mail CatalogsWarehouse Clubs50%Computer SuperstoreMPSOffice Superstores40%Printer DealersBTA30%IP SpecialistSmall BPIA20%Contract Stationer10%0%200620072008200920102011
58 Importance of Environmental Features When Making the Decision to Purchase Printer Products How important are the following environmental features when making the decision to purchase printer products for your business?N = 319
59 USA: OEM Toner Cartridge Return Programs CompanyProgram NameYear BeganCanonCanon’s Toner Cartridge Return Program Recently expanded1990DellUse and Return Program2003EpsonEpson Toner Recycle Program2005HPPlanet Partners1991IBMIBM Printer Supplies Return Program2001LexmarkLexmark Cartridge Collection Program1996RicohUsed Toner Cartridge Collection Program1995SamsungSTAR (Samsung Take Back and Recycling Progam)2008ToshibaClose the Loop’s “Zero waste to Landfill” recycling programXeroxGreen World Alliance1960s
61 Environmentally Responsible Printer Brands Please indicate which of the following printer/printing brands are best described by the following statements: 'is environmentally responsible'N = 319
62 USA and W. Europe Remanufacturer Laser Cartridge Flows 20% are Collected again~74% Good*Remanufactured= Recollectonly 15% ofcartridgesneeded85% fall outof the loop~26% Bad*Recycle or Landfill80%Land Fill
63 USA and Europe Remanufacturer Inkjet Cartridge Flows 14% are Collected again~70% Good*Remanufactured= Recollectonly 10% ofcartridgesneeded90% fall outof the loop~30% Bad*Recycle or Landfill86%Land Fill
64 U.S. What happens to Cartridges/components that remanufacturers collect but can’t use or sell?
66 Patents and Intellectual Property OEMs are increasing their vigilance to protect their intellectual propertyIncreasing pace of lawsuits and actions through the US Government International Trade Commission to receive damages, court injunctions or exclusion orders to protect against product that infringes intellectual propertyWe expect that US based vendors and resellers will develop a heightened concern about new-build supplies especially those made in China.
67 Companies Involved in Recent Suits with Lexmark, HP, Canon or Epson Ninestar Technology Company, Ltd.●Ninestar Image Co. Ltd. (a/k/a Ninestar Technology Co., Ltd.)Ninestar Image Int’l Ltd.Acecom Inc.-San Antonio d/b/a Inksell.comACM Technologies, Inc.Copy Technologies, Inc.Direct Billing International Incorporated d/b/a Office Supply Outfitters and d/b/a The Ribbon ConnectionPrint-Rite Holdings Ltd.Nano Pacific CorporationNectron International, Inc.Mipo International Ltd.Comptree Ink d/b/a Meritline ABCInk, EZPrinter Essentials.com, Inc.Mextec d/b/a Mipo America Ltd.Seine Image International Co., Ltd.Town Sky Inc.Zhuhai Gree Magneto-Electric Co. Ltd.Ziprint Image Corporation
68 Companies Involved in Recent Suits with Lexmark, HP, Canon or Epson 123 Inkjets.com●Jahwa Electronics Co., Ltd.123 Refills, Inc.John Does 1-20Abacus 24-7 LLCL2 Commerce, Inc. d/b/a PrintMicro.comABCCo.net, Inc.Laser Toner Technology, Inc.AcuJetLD Products, Inc.All Amedia Outlet Corp. d/b/a Inkandbeyond.comLinkyo Corp. d/b/a Supermediastore.comAlpha Image TechMaster Ink Co., Ltd.Apex Distributing Inc.Media Street Inc. d/b/a mediastreet.comArtech GmbHMicroJet Technology Co., LTd.Asia Pacific Microsystems, Inc.Mipo Science & Technology Co., Ltd.Aurora Eshop, Inc. d/b/a butterlyinkjet.comMipo Technology LimitedButterfly Print Image Corp. Ltd.MMC Consumables Inc.C&R Services, Incorporated d/b/a C&R Distributors and C&R DistributingNinestar Japan Co.Cartridge Hut and Paperwork PlusNinestar Management Co., Ltd.Cartridges R Us, Inc.OHM Electric Inc.Chung Pal ShinOurway Image Co., Ltd.Clickinks.com, LLCPolek & Polek Inc.Color Creation Inc.Price-Less Inkjet Cartridge Co.Compu-Imaging, Inc.PTC Holdings LimitedCopylite Products Corp.Quality Cartridges, Inc.Dataproducts USA LLCR & L Imaging Group, Inc. formerly known as IEM Consumables, Inc.Eforcity Corporation d/b/a Eforcity.comRed Powers, Inc.EIS Office Solutions, Inc.REV CorporationE-Toner Mart, Inc.Ribbon Tree (USA) Inc., dba Cana-Pacific Ribbons Inc.Futurewell Holding LimitedRibbonTree (Macao) Trading Co., Ltd.Gerald Chamales Corp., d/b/a Rhinotek Computer ProductsShanghai Angel Printer Supplies Co. Ltd.Global Business Support Systems, Inc. d/b/a Printcountry.comShenzhen Print Media Co., Ltd.Glory South Software Manufacturing Inc.SinoTime Technologies, Inc. d/b/a All ColorsHuizhou Jahwa Electronics Co., Ltd.SmartOne Services LLC d/b/a InkForSale.netIJSS Inc., d/b/a TonerZone.com Inc. and d/b/a Inkjet SuperstoreTatrix InternationalInk Lab (H.K.) Co. Ltd.Tully Imaging Supplies Ltd.Ink Tec America CorporationUnion Technology Int’l (M.C.O.) Co. Ltd.Ink Tec Co. Ltd.Virtual Imaging Prouducts Inc.Ink Technologies Printer Supplies, LLC d/b/a Ink Technologies LLCWellink Trading Co., LTd.Inkjetmadness.com d/b/a inkgrabber.comXP Solutions Properties, LLC d/b/a Clickinks.comInkjetwarehouse.com Inc.XSE Group, Inc.InkPlusToner.comZhuhai National Resources & Jingjie ImagingIowaInk, LLC d/a/b iowaink.comZhuhai Seine Technology Co., Ltd.
69 Q55: Opinion on Counterfeit Cartridges Do you believe that there is a lot of counterfeit toner and inkjet cartridges in the market?N =
70 Q56: Counterfeit Cartridges Causing Problems Do you believe that counterfeit toner and ink cartridges present a problem for your company?N =
71 Summary US and WE are flat with potential for slight revenue growth MPS is a threat to the supplies market growthMPS likely increases aftermarket share and disrupts the channelsGreen is of growing importance but may have the PR edgeLegal is moving into high gear