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Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply/Demand Outlook October 25 - 27, 2010 San Diego Convention Center, San Diego,

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Presentation on theme: "Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply/Demand Outlook October 25 - 27, 2010 San Diego Convention Center, San Diego,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply/Demand Outlook October , 2010 San Diego Convention Center, San Diego, CA, US Pira Intertech

2 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 2 Outline State of LED Supply –Regional –LED Manufacturer –LED Tool Maker LED Demand –Small/Medium Displays –Large Area Displays –Lighting –Automotive/Signaling –Others Supply/Demand – Reactor Forecast Forecast Deviations

3 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply

4 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 4 Supply Model Methodology –Survey Tool Makers and LED Producers by: –Tool Model Capacity Install Dates Bookings –Model the production based on: Average Die Size/application Yields/Application –Epi –Binning Calculate Runs/day Apply –Fab Utilization –Packaging Yield Results –Fab/Wafer Capacity –Epi Yield –Binned Die Capability –Production by Tool Maker LED Producer Region Wafer Application

5 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 5 MOCVD Installed Base MOCVD tool count will grow by 50% from 2009 to Q1'09Q2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10Q4'10 Installed Reactors 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Growth Reactors Y/Y Growth Q/Q Growth Source: YMR

6 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 6 MOCVD Installed Base by Region Chinese government supporting tool purchases: –13 regional industrial bases –Land/Tax Abatements –US$1.1m to US$1.8M tool subsidies Source: YMR

7 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 7 MOCVD Supplier Installs New tool shipments and capacity growing exponentially in 2010 CompanyQ2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10e Aixtron Veeco Nippon Sanso Other Total Q/Q Growth31%24%98%12% Y/Y Growth1914%259% Source: YMR

8 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 8 Wafer Capacity (000) Wafer size shifting from 2 and 3 to 4 6 wafers increase market share in terms of capacity Growth2009 Share2010 Share 2" %73%63% 3" %8%5% 4" %18%31% 6" %1%2% Total %100% Wafer (000) 2009 Area2010 AreaGrowth2009 Share2010 Share 2" %43%29% 3" %11%5% 4" %43%58% 6"631380%3%7% Total %100% sq. m (000) Wafer Size Source: YMR

9 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 9 Die Capacity(m) and Growth Q1'09Q2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10Q4'10 Die(m) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Growth Total Q/Q Growth Y/Y Growth Source: YMR

10 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 10 Binned Die(m)and Growth Q1'09Q2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10Q4'10 Binned Die (m) -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Growth Total Y/Y Growth Q/Q Growth Source: YMR Includes epi and binned die yields Includes utilization and packaging yields

11 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 11 Binned Die – Regional Share 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% Q1'09Q2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10 Share TaiwanKorea JapanChina USAEurope Source: YMR

12 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 12 Leading Manufacturers of LED Die (m) Binned Die Production Rank CompanyQ1'09Q2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10 1Nichia LG Group Epistar HUGA Tekcore Samsung LED Epivalley Seoul Opto Forepi Genesis Photonics Others Total Die (m) Source: YMR

13 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 13 Taiwan LED Revenues (TWD) Taiwan LED m/m revenues down in Oct/Sept due to LED (LCD) TV inventories Source: Company Reports

14 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Demand

15 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 15 Demand Model Demand Sources –Backlights LCD TVs Notebooks Monitors Small/Medium Displays –Camera Flashes –Illumination Products Residential Commercial Industrial Outdoor –Automotive/Display/Others

16 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 16 Small/Medium Display Demand Panels (m)/LED (m) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Growth Panel Shipments LED Shipments Shipment Growth LED Growth Source: YMR

17 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 17 Large Area Displays Panels (m) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 LEDs (m) NotebookMonitors CRTLCD (CCFL) LCD (LED)PDP OtherLED Source: YMR/IMS

18 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 18 LED Backlit L/A Panels & LED Growth L/A LED Displays L/A LED Display Growth LED Growth Panels (m) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Growth Source: YMR/IMS

19 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 19 Converting from Traditional to SSL Output (lm) Power (W)1.0 Electrical Efficiency90%91%92%93%94%95% Thermal Efficiency90%91%92%93%94%95% Optical Efficiency90%91%92%93%94%95% LED Degradation6% Luminaire Efficiency69%71%73%76%78%81% Cost per LED$1.50$1.35$1.22$1.09$0.98$0.89 Source: YMR $- $50.00 $ $ $ $ IncandescentCFLFluorescentHID Price Differential

20 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 20 Lighting Shipments(m) by Application Outdoor Industrial Commercial Residential Outdoor Industrial Commercial Residential LuminairesLamps Source: YMR

21 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 21 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IncandescentCFL FluorescentHigh Intensity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IncandescentCFL FluorescentHigh Intensity Lighting Shipment Share by Technology LuminairesLamps Source: YMR

22 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 22 Conversion from Traditional to SSL ResidentialCommercial IndustrialOutdoor ResidentialCommercial IndustrialOutdoor Luminaires (m)Lamps (m) Source: YMR

23 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 23 LED Shipments (m) and Share ResidentialCommercial IndustrialOutdoors 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% ResidentialCommercial IndustrialOutdoors Shipments (m) Share Source: YMR

24 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 24 LED/Traditional Lamp – Annual Shipments % 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Trad. LampsSSL Lamps SSL Share Source: YMR

25 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 25 LED Demand – Automotive/Signals/Other % -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Other Signals/Automotive Growth Source: YMR

26 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply/Demand

27 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 27 LED Demand and Growth 0 50, , , , , LED Demand (m) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Growth Other Lighting Small/Medium Backlights Large Area LCD Backlight Growth Source: YMR/IMS

28 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 28 LED Supply/Demand -150, , , , , , , Binned Die (M) Binned Die (m) Supply Binned Die (m) Die Glut of demand Supply Fixed at 2010 Levels Source: YMR

29 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 29 Reactor Demand Forecast Reactors Base 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Base) Source: YMR

30 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential Forecast Deviations

31 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 31 CNT Based Backlight Replacement Replacement Characteristics Catalyst -- metallic nanoparticles are embedded in a matrix Thin –.5 mm glass –<1 mm spacers Eliminates – color filter Provides local dimming Redundant Emitters Progressive scan capability No gate requirement Cost issues using HFCVD equipment, potential for printing High Voltage Anode (~10-15 kV) High Luminance Forecast Penetration5%10%15% TVs CNT LEDs (m) Source: YMR/Motorola

32 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 32 AMOLED TVs Samsung (SMD) expected to announce 8 th Gen Fab dedicated to OLED TVs –Timeframe – installation –18 40 panels/substrate –Target Capacity Year k substrates/month Year k substrates/month Year k substrates/month –LG Display, AUO, Panasonic, Chinese likely to follow Forecast (40 panels/year) OLED Fab Fab Fab Total (000) LEDs (m) Source: YMR

33 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 33 OLED Lighting Current Status –>15 companies developing prototypes and pilot lines, including Philips – Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Osram Opto -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent GE – Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R Panasonic -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Konica Minolta -- Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R Lumiotec -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Zumtobel/Thorne Lighting/Ledon/Fraunhofer – Polymer Based Mitsubishi/Pioneer -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent, 2 nd Gen Fab Moser Baer -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent Samsung -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent, 2 nd Gen Fab LG -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent ModisTech – Polymer, R-T-R NEC Lighting -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent –Target Size Substrate 2 nd Gen th Gen 2012

34 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 34 OLED Lighting Primary Market Currently, OLED lighting is limited to demonstration programs and decorative/architectural lighting. Future – 3 to 5 years away –Fluorescent Luminaire Replacements –Integrated into acoustic ceiling tiles –Compete with LEDs Source: Osram OptoSource: Lumiotec Source: Acuity BrandsSource: General Electric Source: Lumiotec Source: Philips

35 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 35 OLED Lighting Assumptions –Production Capacity –Performance –LED/OLED Replacement x250 mm16 Substrates (000) Utilization70%80%85% Yields50%75%85% Production (m) x920sq. mcd/m2lumensLm/WW$/klm 10" " " LEDs per Luminaire Luminaires (m)9911 Lamps (m) Total (m) Total LEDs (m) OLED Share (m) Total LEDs (m) OLED Fabs459 Source: YMR

36 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 36 Impact of CNT & OLEDs on MOCVD Installs PlanDeviation Difference% Change ,000 1, Reactors -200% -150% -100% -50% Change Source: YMR

37 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential Questions YMR Produces: Quarterly High Brightness LED Supply and Supply/Demand Report Available from IMS Research Quarterly Model for Solid State Lighting (SSL) Adoption LED Material Report (under construction) OLED Lighting & Display Report (under construction)


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