Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply/Demand Outlook October 25 - 27, 2010 San Diego Convention Center, San Diego,

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply/Demand Outlook October 25 - 27, 2010 San Diego Convention Center, San Diego,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply/Demand Outlook October 25 - 27, 2010 San Diego Convention Center, San Diego, CA, US Pira Intertech

2 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 2 Outline State of LED Supply –Regional –LED Manufacturer –LED Tool Maker LED Demand –Small/Medium Displays –Large Area Displays –Lighting –Automotive/Signaling –Others Supply/Demand – Reactor Forecast Forecast Deviations

3 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply

4 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 4 Supply Model Methodology –Survey Tool Makers and LED Producers by: –Tool Model Capacity Install Dates Bookings –Model the production based on: Average Die Size/application Yields/Application –Epi –Binning Calculate Runs/day Apply –Fab Utilization –Packaging Yield Results –Fab/Wafer Capacity –Epi Yield –Binned Die Capability –Production by Tool Maker LED Producer Region Wafer Application

5 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 5 MOCVD Installed Base MOCVD tool count will grow by 50% from 2009 to 2010 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Q1'09Q2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10Q4'10 Installed Reactors 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Growth Reactors Y/Y Growth Q/Q Growth Source: YMR

6 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 6 MOCVD Installed Base by Region Chinese government supporting tool purchases: –13 regional industrial bases –Land/Tax Abatements –US$1.1m to US$1.8M tool subsidies Source: YMR

7 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 7 MOCVD Supplier Installs New tool shipments and capacity growing exponentially in 2010 CompanyQ2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10e Aixtron154170101130159 Veeco722364881100 Nippon Sanso075 225 Other0000712 Total22138181224443496 Q/Q Growth31%24%98%12% Y/Y Growth1914%259% Source: YMR

8 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 8 Wafer Capacity (000) Wafer size shifting from 2 and 3 to 4 6 wafers increase market share in terms of capacity 20092010Growth2009 Share2010 Share 2"452556075134%73%63% 3"50704378-14%8%5% 4"1113030257172%18%31% 6"3561710380%1%2% Total618129709657%100% Wafer (000) 2009 Area2010 AreaGrowth2009 Share2010 Share 2"9212334%43%29% 3"2320-14%11%5% 4"90245172%43%58% 6"631380%3%7% Total21242098%100% sq. m (000) Wafer Size Source: YMR

9 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 9 Die Capacity(m) and Growth 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 Q1'09Q2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10Q4'10 Die(m) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Growth Total Q/Q Growth Y/Y Growth Source: YMR

10 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 10 Binned Die(m)and Growth 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 Q1'09Q2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10Q4'10 Binned Die (m) -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Growth Total Y/Y Growth Q/Q Growth Source: YMR Includes epi and binned die yields Includes utilization and packaging yields

11 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 11 Binned Die – Regional Share 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% Q1'09Q2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10 Share TaiwanKorea JapanChina USAEurope Source: YMR

12 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 12 Leading Manufacturers of LED Die (m) Binned Die Production Rank CompanyQ1'09Q2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10 1Nichia1099 111812791636 2LG Group259261281373399619836 3Epistar609623629714636730773 4HUGA326339351430467641749 5Tekcore382 397421535713 6Samsung LED328337351390399516625 7Epivalley525528533 502521620 8Seoul Opto9297105123133348554 9Forepi369 385392445487 10Genesis Photonics391 369411427 Others4037405040944211392646865726 Total841784788586904687621073113148 Die (m) Source: YMR

13 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 13 Taiwan LED Revenues (TWD) Taiwan LED m/m revenues down in Oct/Sept. 2010 due to LED (LCD) TV inventories Source: Company Reports

14 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Demand

15 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 15 Demand Model Demand Sources –Backlights LCD TVs Notebooks Monitors Small/Medium Displays –Camera Flashes –Illumination Products Residential Commercial Industrial Outdoor –Automotive/Display/Others

16 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 16 Small/Medium Display Demand 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2009201020112012201320142015 Panels (m)/LED (m) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Growth Panel Shipments LED Shipments Shipment Growth LED Growth Source: YMR

17 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 17 Large Area Displays 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2009201020112012201320142015 Panels (m) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 LEDs (m) NotebookMonitors CRTLCD (CCFL) LCD (LED)PDP OtherLED Source: YMR/IMS

18 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 18 LED Backlit L/A Panels & LED Growth L/A LED Displays L/A LED Display Growth LED Growth 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2009201020112012201320142015 Panels (m) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Growth Source: YMR/IMS

19 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 19 Converting from Traditional to SSL 201020112012201320142015 Output (lm)808897106117129 Power (W)1.0 Electrical Efficiency90%91%92%93%94%95% Thermal Efficiency90%91%92%93%94%95% Optical Efficiency90%91%92%93%94%95% LED Degradation6% Luminaire Efficiency69%71%73%76%78%81% Cost per LED$1.50$1.35$1.22$1.09$0.98$0.89 Source: YMR $- $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00 $250.00 IncandescentCFLFluorescentHID Price Differential 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

20 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 20 Lighting Shipments(m) by Application 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 201020112012201320142015 Outdoor Industrial Commercial Residential 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 201020112012201320142015 Outdoor Industrial Commercial Residential LuminairesLamps Source: YMR

21 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 21 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 201020112012201320142015 IncandescentCFL FluorescentHigh Intensity 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 201020112012201320142015 IncandescentCFL FluorescentHigh Intensity Lighting Shipment Share by Technology LuminairesLamps Source: YMR

22 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 22 Conversion from Traditional to SSL 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 201020112012201320142015 ResidentialCommercial IndustrialOutdoor 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 201020112012201320142015 ResidentialCommercial IndustrialOutdoor Luminaires (m)Lamps (m) Source: YMR

23 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 23 LED Shipments (m) and Share 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 201020112012201320142015 ResidentialCommercial IndustrialOutdoors 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 201020112012201320142015 ResidentialCommercial IndustrialOutdoors Shipments (m) Share Source: YMR

24 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 24 LED/Traditional Lamp – Annual Shipments 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Trad. LampsSSL Lamps SSL Share Source: YMR

25 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 25 LED Demand – Automotive/Signals/Other 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 2009201020112012201320142015 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Other Signals/Automotive Growth Source: YMR

26 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply/Demand

27 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 27 LED Demand and Growth 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 20082009201020112012201320142015 LED Demand (m) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Growth Other Lighting Small/Medium Backlights Large Area LCD Backlight Growth Source: YMR/IMS

28 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 28 LED Supply/Demand -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 200920102011201220132014 Binned Die (M) Binned Die (m) Supply Binned Die (m) Demand @105% Die Glut (m) @105% of demand Supply Fixed at 2010 Levels Source: YMR

29 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 29 Reactor Demand Forecast 128 1447 1457 1482 299 691 774 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2009201020112012201320142015 Reactors Base 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Base) Source: YMR

30 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential Forecast Deviations

31 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 31 CNT Based Backlight Replacement Replacement Characteristics Catalyst -- metallic nanoparticles are embedded in a matrix Thin –.5 mm glass –<1 mm spacers Eliminates – color filter Provides local dimming Redundant Emitters Progressive scan capability No gate requirement Cost issues using HFCVD equipment, potential for printing High Voltage Anode (~10-15 kV) High Luminance Forecast Penetration5%10%15% TVs195225250 CNT102338 LEDs (m)48751012515188 Source: YMR/Motorola

32 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 32 AMOLED TVs Samsung (SMD) expected to announce 8 th Gen Fab dedicated to OLED TVs –Timeframe – 2012-2013 installation –18 40 panels/substrate –Target Capacity Year 1 -- 30k substrates/month Year 2 -- 60k substrates/month Year 3 -- 90k substrates/month –LG Display, AUO, Panasonic, Chinese likely to follow Forecast (40 panels/year) OLED201320142015 Fab 11593829513704 Fab 215938295 Fab 38295 Total (000)1593988830293 LEDs (m)797444912269 Source: YMR

33 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 33 OLED Lighting Current Status –>15 companies developing prototypes and pilot lines, including Philips – Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Osram Opto -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent GE – Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R Panasonic -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Konica Minolta -- Solution Based Phosphorescent, R-T-R Lumiotec -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent Zumtobel/Thorne Lighting/Ledon/Fraunhofer – Polymer Based Mitsubishi/Pioneer -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent, 2 nd Gen Fab Moser Baer -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent Samsung -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent, 2 nd Gen Fab LG -- Small Molecule –Phosphorescent ModisTech – Polymer, R-T-R NEC Lighting -- Small Molecule --Fluorescent/Phosphorescent –Target Size Substrate 2 nd Gen 2010 4 th Gen 2012

34 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 34 OLED Lighting Primary Market Currently, OLED lighting is limited to demonstration programs and decorative/architectural lighting. Future – 3 to 5 years away –Fluorescent Luminaire Replacements –Integrated into acoustic ceiling tiles –Compete with LEDs Source: Osram OptoSource: Lumiotec Source: Acuity BrandsSource: General Electric Source: Lumiotec Source: Philips

35 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 35 OLED Lighting Assumptions –Production Capacity –Performance –LED/OLED Replacement 201320142015 250x250 mm16 Substrates (000)3607201080 Utilization70%80%85% Yields50%75%85% Production (m)2712 730x920sq. mcd/m2lumensLm/WW$/klm 10"0.06330005891005.9255 12"0.0934000116711010.6171 14"0.1265000198612016.6126 LEDs201320142015 per Luminaire262320 Luminaires (m)9911 Lamps (m)126327666 Total (m)135336677 Total LEDs (m)3522773013535 OLED Share (m)734102 Total LEDs (m)1767732030 OLED Fabs459 Source: YMR

36 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential 36 Impact of CNT & OLEDs on MOCVD Installs PlanDeviation Difference% Change -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 201020112012201320142015 Reactors -200% -150% -100% -50% Change Source: YMR

37 Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential Questions barry@oled-a.org YMR Produces: Quarterly High Brightness LED Supply and Supply/Demand Report Available from IMS Research Quarterly Model for Solid State Lighting (SSL) Adoption LED Material Report (under construction) OLED Lighting & Display Report (under construction)


Download ppt "Copyright © 2010 YMR, · All Worldwide Rights Reserved · Confidential LED Supply/Demand Outlook October 25 - 27, 2010 San Diego Convention Center, San Diego,"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google