Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 1 Center for Business and Economic Research.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 1 Center for Business and Economic Research."— Presentation transcript:

1 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 1 Center for Business and Economic Research

2 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 2

3 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 3 Employees: 2,693 (Oct. 2013) Additional engineering jobs to be created: up to 400 * Supplier/vendor locations: 234** Supplier/vendor purchases: $483 million** * The firm is establishing a new research center in Huntsville that will focus on simulation and decision analytics and metals and chemical technology; one of five technology centers nationwide. ** 2012 data

4 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 4 New missile contract: $3.9 billion* Huntsville employees: 850 Troy employees: by 2020 * New contract for Terminal High Altitude Defense Weapons Systems will boost the firms operating facility in Troy and program office in Huntsville.

5 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 5 Investment: $600 million Employees: up to 1,000 First delivery: 2016 Investment: $75 million Employees: up to 400 by 2020

6 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 6

7 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 7

8 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 8

9 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 9

10 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 10

11 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 11

12 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 12

13 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 13 1Healthcare Healthcare costs; Affordable Care Act; Medicare, Medicaid 2Government Federal and state government; taxation; regulations 3 Education/ Training Quality of education; workforce development 4 Economy/ Businesses Economic growth and recovery; small businesses; business costs and investment 5Jobs Job growth; unemployment; better quality jobs Note: Football championships/Alabama loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl issue was mentioned by 2.5% of respondents. Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists Poll, Nov.-Dec

14 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 14 1Government Policy (e.g., uncertainty, sequestration); taxation; regulations 2 Company Finances and Development Profitability; business costs; cash flow; availability of credit; business opportunities; competition; concern about customers 3Economy Economic growth; housing market; demand and consumer confidence 4HealthcareHealthcare costs; Affordable Care Act 5WorkforceLack of skilled labor; employee development Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists Poll, Nov.-Dec

15 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 15 Alabama Change from Q ABCI National Economy Alabama Economy Industry Sales Industry Profits Industry Hiring Capital Expenditures Index above 50 indicates positive outlook. Index below 50 indicates negative outlook.

16 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 16

17 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 17

18 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 18

19 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 19 Change from Q1 2014Q Construction Manufacturing Transportation/Information/Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Professional/Scientific/Technical Services Healthcare Services All Other Services

20 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama

21 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 21

22 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 22

23 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 23 Alabama Population by Age Group 2010 and Projected 2025 and Age GroupNumberPercentNumberPercentNumberPercent 0-4 years304, , , years971, , ,004, years2,845, ,925, ,037, years657, ,010, ,199, years75, , , Total4,779, ,242, ,567, Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

24 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 24 Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

25 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 25 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight, U.S. Census Bureau, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

26 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 26 Total number of occupations = 785 High-demand = 40 (growth- and wages-weighted & minimum 40 annual job openings) Fast-growing = 20 (3.40% annual growth rate & 15 annual job openings minimum) High-earning = 50 (annual salary of $90,490 - $251,470) Sharp-declining = 20 (10% or more job decline & minimum net job loss of 40) YTD 2013* Labor force 2,153,828 Employed 2,010,681 Underemployment rate 23.8% Number of underemployed workers 478,542 Unemployed 143,147 Available labor pool 621,689 * through November 2013 Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama and Labor Market Information Division, Alabama Department of Labor.

27 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 27 Efforts to address skill needs, shortfalls in critical occupations, and both medium and long term worker shortfalls must include: Improving education and its funding Focusing on hard-to-serve populations (e.g. out-of-school & at-risk youth) Lowering the high school dropout rate Programs to assess, retrain, and place dislocated workers especially those affected by outsourcingshould be continued and enhanced because they can improve the labor force participation rate Recruiting: Using economic opportunities to attract new residents Facilitating in-commuting Encouraging older worker participation

28 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 28 GDP and Employment Exports Auto Industry Forecast A better year in 2014!

29 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 29 Not Seasonally Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Civilian Labor Force2,137,1732,126,952 Percent Change from Year Ago Level-0.8%-1.2% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level-17,125-25,216 Employed2,017,8641,994,571 Percent Change from Year Ago Level0.0%-0.4% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level1,249-8,641 Unemployed119,309132,381 Percent Change from Year Ago Level-13.3%-11.1% Absolute Change from Year Ago Level-18,374-16,575 Alabama Unemployment Rate5.6%6.2% Alabama Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2012)6.4%6.9% U.S. Unemployment Rate6.6%7.0% U.S. Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2012)7.4%7.8% Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.

30 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 30 Source: Alabama Department of Labor. Anniston-Oxford

31 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 31 Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division. November 2011 to November 2012 November 2012 to November 2013 Total Nonfarm 12,4002,800 Natural Resources and Mining Construction-2,400-2,600 Manufacturing6,3005,500 Durable Goods Manufacturing6,4002,600 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing-1002,900 Trade, Transportation and Utilities-1,8002,200 Wholesale Trade Retail Trade-4,2005,500 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities2,100-2,600 Information Financial Activities1, Professional and Business Services6,800-1,900 Educational and Health Services3, Leisure and Hospitality4,1004,900 Other Services6000 Government-5,400-4,000 Federal Government-1,400-1,200 State Government-4,900-1,200 Local Government900-1,600

32 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 32 Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division. January 2011 November 2013Change Total Nonagricultural 1,839,4001,898,80059,400 Natural Resources and Mining12,10012, Construction77,20075,700-1,500 Manufacturing233,200251,00017,800 Durable Goods Manufacturing143,500158,40014,900 Nondurable Goods Manufacturing89,70092,6002,900 Trade, Transportation and Utilities358,800371,90013,100 Wholesale Trade70,90072,3001,400 Retail Trade221,500232,40010,900 Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities66,40067, Information23,50021,500-2,000 Financial Activities91,10093,1002,000 Professional and Business Services208,200220,20012,000 Educational and Health Services213,200221,7008,500 Leisure and Hospitality159,500177,00017,500 Other Services78,40080,2001,800 Government384,200373,900-10,300 Federal Government57,20054,400-2,800 State Government110,400104,900-5,500 Local Government216,600214,600-2,000

33 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 33 (Number of Months)

34 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 34 Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

35 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 35

36 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 36 Source: Alabama OEM reports.

37 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 37 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Center. Total Transportation Equipment

38 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 38 Source: Estimates based on U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

39 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 39 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

40 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 40 Source: IHS Global Insight, January (Percent change unless otherwise noted) Real GDP Consumption Residential Investment Commercial, Healthcare Structures Nonresidential Fixed Investment Federal Government State & Local Government Exports Imports Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate CPI Inflation Light Vehicle Sales (Millions)

41 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 41 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Alabama Department of Labor, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

42 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 42 Probability: Forecast (60 Percent) and Range (90 percent) (Percent change) Real GDP range2.0 to to 4.0 Employment range0.5 to to 2.0 Total Tax Receipts, FY range3.5 to to 6.0

43 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 43

44 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 44 Understanding the economy and economic development Economy = People + Institutions + Property = Private & Public Sectors Economic Development = Higher or better quality of life Human Capital Development = Improved education and healthcare Institutional Development = Better government, companies, culture Physical Capital Development = Better infrastructure and environment There is no economic development without education (a public good) *** Informal education is also important Pre-Kindergarten to High School (Pure Public Good) Universities (Largely Public Good) Vocational and Community Colleges (Mostly Public Good) Development Policies must be Optimal = Efficient, Fair, Flexible, Sustainable

45 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 45 Labor force participation (2012): Alabama 57.3% United States 63.7% Educational Attainment (Age 25 and over population) (2012)AlabamaUnited States High school graduates82.6% (84.0%)85.7% (86.4%) Bachelors or higher degree22.3% (23.3%)28.5% (29.1%) Population GrowthAlabamaUnited States %13.2% %9.7% %2.4%

46 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 46 Per CapitaPercent Change Incomefrom 2011 United States$43, Alabama$35, Anniston-Oxford$32, Auburn-Opelika$30, Birmingham-Hoover$41, Daphne-Fairhope-Foley $38, Decatur$33, Dothan$35, Florence-Muscle Shoals$33, Gadsden$32, Huntsville$41, Mobile$32, Montgomery$37, Tuscaloosa $34, Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

47 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 47 AveragePercent Wageof State United States$45, Alabama$39, Anniston-Oxford$35, Auburn-Opelika$36, Birmingham-Hoover$42, Decatur$37, Dothan$35, Florence-Muscle Shoals$34, Gadsden$33, Huntsville$49, Mobile$39, Montgomery$39, Tuscaloosa$39, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Occupational Employment Statistics, May 2012.

48 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 48

49 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 49

50 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 50

51 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 51

52 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 52

53 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 53 $

54 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 54 $

55 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama Source: Estimates based on Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

56 Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama : U.S. $697 Alabama $ : U.S. $43,735 Alabama $35,926


Download ppt "Center for Business and Economic Research, Culverhouse College of Commerce, The University of Alabama 1 Center for Business and Economic Research."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google