Presentation on theme: "Does a technology to reduce defectors negative impactsworsen social dilemmas? - Backfire effect of purchasing an eco-car Satoshi Fujii (Kyoto University)"— Presentation transcript:
Does a technology to reduce defectors negative impactsworsen social dilemmas? - Backfire effect of purchasing an eco-car Satoshi Fujii (Kyoto University) & Hiroyuki Ohta (Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport)
How to solve SD? 1) Behavioral solution - Behavior change from D to C. 2) Technological Solution - Reduction of negative impacts of D. e.g. promoting food with little packages, and promoting ECO -TV, -Air. Con. -Car with low CO2 emission
Unintended effects of reduction of negative impacts of D? IF such technology to reduce negative impacts of D has no effects on behavior, such technology could solve the problem to some extent. …HOWEVER… If the technology INCREASE frequency of defection, it would not solve the problem.
IF such technology to reduce negative impacts of D has no effects on behavior, such technology could solve the problem to some extent. …HOWEVER… If the technology INCREASE frequency of defection, it would not solve the problem. This is likely because the technology….. 1) reduce SENSE OF GUILT and 2) reduce COST to implement D. e;g; Bougherara,2005, Geyskens, K. et al., 2007, Wansink, B et al. 2006) Unintended effects of reduction of negative impacts of D?
Research Question Does a technology to reduce defectors negative impacts worsen social dilemmas? if so…… What we should do? – in case of ECO car -
Eco car For solving global environmental SD, the government provide subsidy to promote ECO car (such as PRIUS or electric vehicle) …as a consequence… Sales only for ECO car increased in Japan in spite of business depression these days.
- 51 samples who bought a 1500 CC class new car in the last 6 month (while replacing an old car). -The samples were recruited in all over Japan through internet survey. -2 wave panel survey. wave 1 = February, 2008 wave 2 = October, 2008 -Measurements > weekly vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) [measured by Odometer for a week] > self reported average weekly VKT in case of the previous car. > Do you think your car is ECO car? > Do you think that environmental problem would be solved by promotion of ECO car? Survey 7
Which car do they buy? ECO car perception Fuel economy NoYesTotal Rate (%) [km/L] HondaFit1458019.6 Mobilio Spike3142517.6 MazdaAxela101018 Demio02210020 Verisa101018.4 MitsubishiColt Plus01110018.4 NissanCube101019.4 Note02210019.4 Tiida404019.4 Tiida Latio01110019.4 SubaruImpreza505017.6 ToyotaAuris01110017.6 Carolla Axio1347518.2 Carolla Rumion101016.2 Ist1125018 Porte01110016 Premio101018 Prius0141410035.5 Ractis101018 Raum101016.2 Vitz101019.5 Total23315457.4 - [more efficient by 45%!] (t=5.28, p<.01) Fuel economy [km/L] EC= NO EC = Yes
9 Those who bought ECO car increased their VKT than those who bought non-ECO car. (relatively 1.64 times more) EC Non-EC Note : 258.38/171.13 141.75/154.11 1.64= Wave 1Wave 2 This increase of VKT leads INCREASE OF CO2 emission (15.7% increase) in spite of high fuel-efficiency of ECO car
ECO car users were split into 2 groups…. Increase in VKT was smaller for those who do NOT believe ECO car can stop EP (28% increase 11.6% decrease in CO2) than those DO believe (104% increase 40.8% increase in CO2). 10 ECO car can NOT stop EP. km/week ECO car CAN stop EP. wave1 wave2
Conclusion Does a technology to reduce defectors negative impacts worsen social dilemmas? YES! (15.7% increase in CO2 emission due to ECO car owning in spite of high fuel efficiency) However, if they do not believe EP would be solved by promotion of ECO car, they do NOT increase VKT largely, otherwise, they DO substantially increase. This implies too much reliance on technology eliminate its utility.
We could appropriately utilize the technology (e.g. ECO car), if and only if we understand the its limitation well. …therefore… We always need social communication for peoples well understanding of the technology, in addition to technological development. People, and… TOYOTA, NISSAN… should understand this!