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Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Car industry crash & vehicle shipping.

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Presentation on theme: "Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research www.lrfairplay.com/research Car industry crash & vehicle shipping."— Presentation transcript:

1 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Crash boom bang

2 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Agenda Status right now Background and LV forecasts Supply of ships The balance Conclusions

3 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Port calls –rapid decline

4 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Ships laying idle

5 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Production of cars, per region

6 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Sales of cars, per region

7 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Production – sales, per region + 100% in 7 years !!

8 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Ordering behavior, ships avg: 4,764 ceu ships Avg: 5,307 ceu

9 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Orderbook 1.2M ceu = 38% fleet 9.3% pa Vehicle carrier fleet changes (register data)

10 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Vehicle carrier fleet forecast 5.3% forecast Fleet growth 9.3 % yearly FORECAST Removals 647k ceu (+1,575%)

11 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Vehicle carrier, Supply vs Demand, the Asia Indicator -32% +15% +18% The Asia Indicator illustrates the base demand for vehicle carriers capacity over time

12 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Vehicle carrier, Supply vs Demand, the Asia Indicator, seaborne tonnes cars

13 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Conclusions – Average annual net fleet capacity growth : 5.3% – Average annual demand growth : 2.9% – Vehicle carriers (and terminals) under threat from containerization – Can take cargo from conventional roro and general cargo – Turning point: Late-2010 for cars, earlier for project cargoes – modest levels to 2013

14 Car industry crash & vehicle shipping market foundering Lloyds Register-Fairplay Research Thank you! Niklas Bengtsson


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