Presentation on theme: "Electric, Hybrid, and Fuel Cell Vehicles Oct. 24, 2003 Gary Flomenhoft, BSME, MAPP, CEE Research Associate Gund Institute, SNR Owner: InnEVations.com."— Presentation transcript:
Electric, Hybrid, and Fuel Cell Vehicles Oct. 24, 2003 Gary Flomenhoft, BSME, MAPP, CEE Research Associate Gund Institute, SNR Owner: InnEVations.com
Electric Vehicles 1st Wave The years 1899 and 1900 were the high point of electric vehicles in America, as they outsold all other types of cars. Source: US DOE Better batteries 10 years away Liars, damn liars, and battery manufacturers. -Thomas Edison (Ni-Fe)
Hubbert Oil Cycle M. King Hubbert
Julian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resourcesJulian Simon view: technological developments and human ingenuity will yield more resources –Drowning in oil The Economist, March 6 th -12 th 1999, pp Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oilColin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert curves to predict the end of oil –The End of Cheap Oil Scientific American, March 1998, pp (Campbell and Laherrere) Two Views S. Gürcan Gülen, Ph.D.
Source-World Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
Hubbert-Epoch of Fossil Fuel
World Oil Extraction
Atmospheric CO2 since 1000AD CO2 PPM
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Does CO2 change the climate and how bad is it?
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Does CO2 change the climate and how bad is it? 2 BILLION YEARS You are here
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Does CO2 change the climate and how bad is it?
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE Arctic Ice thinned by 40%: US subs
Europe in August 2003 COUNTRYDEATHSDETAILS France14,802 Temperatures soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the country; temperatures in Paris were the highest since record-keeping began in Germany7000 High temperatures of up to degrees Fahrenheit, the hottest since records began in 1901, raised mortality some 10 percent above average. Spain4230 High temperatures coupled with elevated ground- level ozone concentrations exceeding the European Union's health-risk threshold. Italy4175 Temperatures in parts of the country averaged 16 degrees Fahrenheit higher than previous year. UK2045 The first triple digit (Fahrenheit) temperatures were recorded in London. Neth1400 Temperatures ranged some 14 degrees warmer than normal. Portugal1316 Temperatures were above 104 degrees Fahrenheit throughout much of the country. Belgium150 Temperatures exceeded any in the Royal Meteorological Society's records dating back to TOTAL35,118
Jet Industries: Citi-Car (Beaumont) ElectricarLectra 1980s 2nd Wave of EVs Better batteries 10 years away
Source: WRI Estimate Based on Data from "National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1995," 1996, EPA 454/R Percentage Sector Contribution to Air Pollution Emissions (1995) AIR POLLUTION FATALITIES NOW EXCEED TRAFFIC FATALITIES BY 3: 1
US CO2 by Sector (1999) Source: (US EPA)
Hummer H1 Sticker price $106,185 Current law Equipment deduction $25,000 Total tax deduction* $60,722 Bush economic plan Equipment deduction $75,000 Total tax deduction* $88,722 * Includes bonus tax write-off enacted by Congress in March 2002 and a deduction for normal depreciation. Sources: Detroit News research, IRS, Taxpayers for Common Sense Gas Hog Tax Credit
Source: Center for A New American Dream If World consumption = US: Need 4 more planets
Cars per Thousand People Source: JustAuto.com Today there are 670 million vehicles in the world. By 2050 that number is expected to increase to 4.5 billion or maybe more. Thomas Gross, US DOE
1990-CARB Mandate More than 95% of Californians live in areas that do not meet health-based federal or state air quality standards. Approximately 50% of smog-forming pollutants come from gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. Although many automobiles sold in California today are 98% cleaner than those sold 30 years ago, population growth and increased driving may soon outpace our ability to improve air quality if we rely solely on continued improvements to gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. ZEVS required for further reductions Why did automakers build EVs in 90s? NOT Env. Or MARKET DRIVEN! Gas is cheap. ($400 billion annual subsidy)
1990 CA Air Resources Board Mandates Model YearsZEVs reqd. in CA 19982%* 20015%* % % % % % * Requirement modified in 1996
Even when taking into account power plant emissions, ZEVs are 95% cleaner than even the lowest emitting conventional vehicle. Do ZEVs simply shift air emissions from one place to another? Source: CA Air Resources Board ZEV EMISSIONS
EVs 3rd Wave 1990+: First Phase = (Small Conversion companies) Solar Electric Engineering (US Electricar) Better batteries 10 years away
Solectria: Tropica (Beaumont) Corbin: 1990s 2nd Phase: Small Corporations, US Better batteries 10 years away
Europe: City-El 5000 Sold Party
Phase 3: Nearing 1998 Detroit and Japan Detroit: We cant do it. Hire Lawyers.( Cant do seatbelts, 5mph bumpers, side impact protection, unleaded gas, better gas mileage, airbags, etc.) GM EV-1 Gen 1: Lead Acid miles Gen 2: Nickel Metal Hydride miles Model YearsZEVs reqd. in CA 19982%* 20015%* % % % % % * Requirement modified in 1996
Cost of regulations-OMB report Annual Cost: $37-43 billion EPA conservative approach, Consistently overestimates costs, not considering least cost approach and technical innovation Annual Benefits: $ EPA consistently underestimates benefits USING ACTUAL NOT THEORETICAL CASES BENEFITS OUTWEIGH COSTS 5:1
Honda EVPlus Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles Japan: We can do it. Hire engineers. EV Plus Specs Length: in. Width: 68.9 in. Height: 64.2 in. Wheel Base 99.6 in. Track Front/Rear: 59.1/58.7 Curb Weight: Drive Train: Front Wheel Drive Occupants: Four Voltage: 288 Motor: Brushless PM Power: 49 Kw (66hp) Battery 24 12v NiMH Charger: On-board Conductive Recharge: 6-8 hrs Acceleration: 4.9 sec (0-30 mph) Maximum Speed: 80+ mph Range: 100 miles (80% discharge) Lease Cost: $455/mo for 36 mo.
Better Batteries are finally here, but you cant afford them. Nissan Altra Lithium-ion miles Toyota RAV4-EV Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles Japan: We can do it. Hire engineers. Honda EVPlus Nickel Metal Hydride 80 miles
Neighborhood Electric Vehicles FORD Th!nkNissan Hypermini Toyota E-com Chrysler GEM OTHER EVS
ENERGY STORAGE Performance of Energy Storage Systems Fuel Specific Energy Wh/kg Gasoline12,300 Natural gas9,300 Hydrogen33,000 Lead-acid battery30 Advanced Lead Acid48 Gasoline:C 8 H 18
ENERGY STORAGE Performance of Advanced EV Battery Systems Energy Density Wh/kg Power Density W/kg Life Cycles Lead-acid battery Advanced Lead Acid GM Ovonic nickel metal hydride 70220>600 SAFT nickel metal hydride ,500 SAFT lithium ion Lithium polymer <600 Evercel Nickel-zinc Zinc-Air low? Composite Flywheels 120 Supercapacitors Source: USABC and others
SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC. LITHIUM-ION BATTERY
COMPOSITE FLYWHEELS SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.
SUPERCAPACITORS SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.
ZINC-AIR FUEL CELL SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC.
SOURCE: ELECTRIC STORAGE ASSOC. ENERGY DENSITY BY WEIGHT AND VOLUME
Passenger car emissions reduction HCCONOx TLEV - Transitional Low-Emission Vehicle 50%NR LEV - Low-Emission Vehicle 70%NR50% ULEV - Ultra-Low-Emission Vehicle ( 50% cleaner than the average new 2003 model year vehicle. ) 85%50% SULEV- Super-Ultra-Low-Emission Vehicle (90% cleaner than 2003 average) 96%70%95% PZEV- Partial Zero-Emission- Vehicle 96%70%95% SULEV & 15 year/150K mile warranty and 0 evaporative emissions. AT PZEV -Advanced Technology PZEV (CNG, hybrid-electric, methanol, fuel cell) 96%70%95% PZEV & and include advanced technology components. ZEV -Zero-Emission Vehicles (98% cleaner than the average new 2003 model year vehicle.) 100% CARB DEFINITIONS CLEANERCLEANER
What is a Hybrid Electric Vehicle?
Available Hybrid Electric Vehicles TOYOTA PRIUS HONDA INSIGHT HONDA CIVIC $22,000-$26, hwy 48 city $19,180-21,380 Std:68 auto:62/58 $20,260-$21,110 std:46/51 auto:48/47
Hybrid Electric Vehicles 2005 FORD ESCAPE HYBRID 2004 GM FlexPower Chevy Silverado Pickup Semi-hybrid Loaded ICE $26,700 Hybrid ~35-40 mpg city 10-15% mpg improvement
Future Hybrid Electric Vehicles Nissan Tino Nissan's Hybrid Vehicle(HV) is called the Tino. It is powered by a combination of a 1.8-liter four-cylinder engine and an electric motor with lithium-ion batteries. The vehicle is a five passenger car that achieves twice the fuel economy and 50% less emissions. Nissan's Tino hybrid electric car will be sold only in Japan, initially. Spring 2004 LEXUS HYBRID Fall 2004 Toyota Hylander
Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV) Since 1993-$1.1 billion GM Precept Hybrid Chrysler ESX 2 Hybrid Dodge ESX-3 hybrid 1.5-liter direct-injection three-cylinder diesel engine 15-kW or 20-hp, permanent magnet electric motor/generator 21-kW lithium-ion battery pack Ford Futura
Future Hybrid Electric Vehicles ManufacturerModelYear FordExplorer2005+ GMChevy Suburban 2005 Saturn VUE2005 Chevy Equinox2006 GMC Yukon2007 Chevy Tahoe2007 Daimler- Chrysler Dodge Ram Pickup 2005 Mercedes S- class 2006
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2004 FORD The Ford Focus FCV fuel cell system is efficient, quiet, and produces zero emissions. Ford has announced plans to have a three year demonstration program of 5-10 fleet vehicles in Vancouver, Canada in 2004.
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2003 Honda Honda is delivering a family of new FCX fuel- cell vehicles to its first customer, the city of Los Angeles. Honda plans to lease approximately 30 fuel-cell cars in California and Japan during the next several years. The fuel-cell itself is propelled by electricity generated by a hydrogen-oxygen chemical reactionand its only emission, remarkably, is water vapor.
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-2003 TOYOTA Its only exhaust is water vapor. Its secret? A hydrogen fuel cell that harnesses the electricity of separated atoms and molecules as they strive to be electrically balanced. Developed entirely in-house, FCHV-4 shows Toyota on the leading edge of fuel-cell technology. (NOT AVAILABLE)
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-NISSAN X-TRAIL FCV Nissan is actively developing fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) that have low environmental impact and save energy. Commercialization is scheduled for 2003.(?????)
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-GM The Hy-wire has no internal combustion engine, instrument panel, brake or accelerator pedals – but it does have ample power supplied by a GM fuel cell that runs on hydrogen. PROTOTYPE
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-DAIM/CHRYSLER
FUEL CELL VEHICLES-HYUNDAI
HYDROGEN FUEL CELL OPERATION SOURCE: Schatz Energy Lab Humboldt State U.
PEM HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS SOURCE: Schatz Energy Lab Humboldt State U. PEM= Proton Exchange Membrane (Nafion tm )
SOME SURPRISING FACTS ABOUT HYDROGEN A) HYDROGEN STORES & TRANSPORTS ENERGY. A CARRIER NOT A SOURCE. A) BATTERIES Where does hydrogen come from? Fossil: nat gas, propane, gasoline, methanol Renewable: electric wind, solar, etc. electrolyze water Methane (CH4), methanol(CH3OH), ammonia(NH3?) Q1) IS HYDROGEN A revolutionary NEW ENERGY SOURCE? Q2) WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT, FUEL CELL OR BATTERIES?
INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE oil (gasoline) -> IC engine 15% H2 Fuel Cell Efficiency BATTERY POWERED ELECTRIC VEHICLE Oil-> power plant -> electricity ~=45% transmission~=80% battery charging ~=80% electric drive system ~=80%.45 x.8 x.8 x.8 = 23% FUEL CELL POWERED ELECTRIC VEHICLE Oil-> power plant-> electricity~=45% electricity transmission ~=80% H2 electrolyzer max efficiency ~=70% H2 fuel cell max efficiency ~=50% Electric drive system ~=80%.45 x.8 x.7 x.5 x.8 = 10%
SOLAR FUEL CELLS ? SOURCE: Schatz Energy Lab Humboldt State U. last