Presentation on theme: "The future of energy in Germany – Towards an age of renewables"— Presentation transcript:
1 The future of energy in Germany – Towards an age of renewables Dr. Georg Maue, First Secretary Climate and Energy Policy Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany M Street NW, Suite 300 , Washington, DC Tel: +1 (202) Fax: +1 (202)
2 Introducing the „Energiewende“ (1. Message) There is abundance of Renewables – even in GermanyRE PotentialDemandin addition: with energy efficiency we only need a fraction of the today’s demand!
3 US, Spain have large solar potentials, but even with Germany‘s small potential...
4 Today‘s installed PV Cap. in Germany is over 27.000 MW ! ...huge installed capacities are possible and efficient (provided a policy support)Today‘s installed PV Cap. in Germany is over MW !
6 Introducing the „Energiewende“ (2. Message) The Energiewende is a VERY COMPLEX PROCESSWhy?It means transforming almost all of today's energy supplyit involves all players in the energy business and all consumersit is about a new design of supply and demand chains and patternsetc.This entails..mechanisms and costs/benefits are hardly understoodmisleading messages by politics, lobbies and media
7 Introducing the „Energiewende“ (3. Message) The Energiewende offers immense BENEFITSfor economy, environment and energy securityWhy?efficiency saves energy demand and costsnew investments, new jobs, more innovation and researchcosts for traditional fuels and power plants rise, those for RE installations decreasedrastic reduction of emissions (GHG and pollutants)This entails:all serious projections show the Energiewende path is clearly advantageous compared to the business as usual for economy, society and climate
8 The BASIS: A triangle of three energy policy goals EconomicefficiencyGuidelinesfor politicalactionSupplysecurityEnvironmentalcompatibility
9 The status quo Energy supply in Germany today: Not secure We import 70% infinite energy sourcesNot efficient Fossil fuels cost rise, they have high external costsNot environmentally compatible Greenhouse gases and air pollutants we need to restructure towards sustainable energy supply
10 What does sustainable energy policy mean? secure: sustainable and reliable energy ressources (less imports)economic: long term at affordable prices (no/less external costs)environmental friendly: no/less emissions of pollutants or greenhouse gasesonly renewable energies meet these criteriaenergy concept concentrates on renewable energies andenergy efficiency (in order to reduce the denominator (= energy demand))
11 The „Generation-Programme“ The German Government's Energy Concept The Energy Concept:Approach:Long-term, comprehensive and specific:Long-term: Timeline 2050Comprehensive: All relevant sectorsSpecific:TargetsMeasures: ca. 180 specific measuresFundingMonitoring
13 Energy Concept: A three-pronged approach 1. Renewable energy sources:Rapid, continuous expansionCost-efficient and environmentally friendly3. Efficiency:Reduce energy consumptionEnsure efficiency2. Future grids:Flexible and powerfulIntegration of electricity from renewable sourcesBrief description of the energy concept/contents13
14 Effects of the German nuclear phase out In the aftermath of the Fukushima catastrophe Germany shut down the 7 eldest NPPThe German Energy Transformation in June 2011 laid down to speed up the implementation of the energy concept and to phase out nuclear power faster (similar to the 2001 decision)
15 Effects of the German nuclear phase out Power companies, some industries and critics said this will:let electricity prices (spot market and futures) explode,CO2 certificate prices will increase (by 5 €/t CO2)Germany will become net importer of electricitythe grid will collapse – black outs at ChristmasCO2 emissions will rise
16 The reality looks like: after a short increase during spring, electricity prices on the stock market continued to fall and are at 5-years low
19 GHG emissions continued to decrease while economy rose
20 Compensation of NPP Output in GW Assured output (January 2011) Fossil fuel plants under constructionDecommissioning of old fossil fuel plants by 2022New biomass power plantsNuclear power plants decommissionedAdditional fossil fuel plants needed by 2022Maximum annual load and permanent reserve*Excluding the Brunsbüttel and Krümmel nuclear power plants with 2.1 GW, as they have already been decommissioned for some timeSource: Own representation20
21 Targets and Success so far with Renewable Energies
22 SummaryThe transformation of the German energy system (the „Energiewende“)is needed to achieve sustainable energy supplyis beneficial: for economy (costs, energy security), society (jobs) and climateis a complex task, which needs a generation to implement itneeds political will and a programme: the Energy Concept 2050Renewables, intelligent grids and energy efficiency are key ! If it happens in Germany, it can happen everywhere!