1. What are 21st Century Problems?

2. First, well provide some context... Human activity is putting such a strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planets ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board

3. Other scientific assessments have come to the same conclusion... Certain current trends of population and habitation, wealth and consumption, technology and work, connectedness and diversity, and environmental change are likely to persist well into the coming century.... If they do persist, many human needs will not be met, life support systems will be dangerously degraded, and the numbers of hungry and poor will increase. U.S. National Academy of Sciences

4. What are some of these 21st century problems? Global climate change Long-lived organic toxins in our food chains, Pernicious extreme poverty and hunger, Lack of access to primary education, Gaps in gender equality, Childhood mortality Deadly diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria

5. 21st century problems have three fundamental properties in common (1)Complexity (2)Panarchy (3)Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

6. Well deal with complexity first

7. Complex is not another word for complicated!

8. Complicated systems: simple systems with many parts (1)Interactions among parts are well-defined, (2)Interactions among parts are predictable, (3)The system is well defined and predictable.

9. Complex is not another word for complicated ! Complex systems have (1)Changing connections among parts (2)Changing types of interactions (3)Changing intensity of interactions (4)Non-linear interactions (5)Feedback loops

10. Complex is not another word for complicated ! Complex systems exhibit emergent behavior: that is behavior that cant be predicted by studying the parts

11. Complex is not another word for complicated ! Complicated problem: On a flat stretch of pavement with a 60 degree curve, what is the stopping distance of a car traveling 60 miles per hour given a particular coefficient of friction between the tires and the road? Assume the brakes fully engage 0.5 seconds after the signal to stop is given.

12. Complex is not another word for complicated ! Complex problem: On a flat stretch of pavement with a 60 degree curve, what is the stopping distance of a car traveling 60 miles per hour given a particular coefficient of friction between the tires and the road? Assume the driver has consumed three beers and had a fight with his girl friend 2 hours ago.

13. 21st Century Problems Have Three Properties (1)Complexity (2)Panarchy (3)Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

14. Definition: Panarchy An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.

15. What??? Definition: Panarchy An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.

16. Lets break this down... you are familiar with hierarchical systems Unites States New York State Tompkins County Ithaca

17. And another example of a hierarchical system

18. Now we have to add in the other elements that take a hierarchy and make it a true panarchy An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.

19. Now we have to add in the other elements that take a hierarchy and make it a true panarchy An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels. This is more easily explained with an example

20. Lets build a simple panarchy to understand global CO2 emissions and climate change

21. You exhibit certain behaviors that effect your personal CO2 emissions You do or dont turn off your computer when you leave your room You do or dont recycle your soda cans You do or dont drive from the circles to campus You do or dont wear certain brands of clothes You do or dont fly in an airplane to get home at breaks

22. However, you dont live isolated from other people You Your barber Your sibling Your friend

23. And your behaviors influence each other You Your barber Your sibling Your friend

24. Together, these individual behaviors add up to a group behavior Person

25. Different groups develop different norms of behavior Person Group #1 Group #2

26. Different groups develop different norms of behavior Person For example, the group of students at Ithaca College behave differently from the group of professors at Ithaca College Group #2 Group #1

27. Your group interacts with other groups that have different group behaviors Person I.C. Students I.C. Professors Local Merchants

28. And these groups create larger groups that interact For example, the U.S., India, and Germany

29. The CO2 emissions of these groups add up to total emissions for humanity CO2

30. Which effects total global atmospheric CO2

31. And… Global Atmospheric CO2 Heat Content of Atmosphere effects

32. And… Global Atmospheric CO2 Heat Content of Atmosphere effects Weather

33. And… Global Atmospheric CO2 Heat Content of Atmosphere effects Weather effects Food Availability

34. And… Global Atmospheric CO2 Heat Content of Atmosphere effects Weather effects Food Availability effects Food Prices

35. And weve come back full circle... food prices effect – national, regional, state, and individual behavior

36. Definition: Panarchy A Hierarchy can be... Simple [few levels with straightforward connections ] Complicated [lots of levels with straightforward connections] Complex [ levels interrelated by changing connections, feedback loops, etc] and still not be a Panarchy!

37. An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels. In a Panarchy, not only are the interactions among levels changing [leading to complexity], but the levels themselves are changing through time! Definition: Panarchy

38. 21st Century Problems Have Three Properties (1)Complexity (2)Panarchy (3)Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS

39. Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS System components are related in such a way that the system as a whole has the ability to adjust or even fundamentally alter the connections and interactions among components, and even the components themselves, based on experience with, pressure from, or even sometimes anticipation of, external forces.

40. Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS lakes forests economy of U.S.A. human body earths atmosphere street gangs NATO

41. So what do we do?

42. Train 21 st century problem-solvers!

43. Who are 21st Century Problem Solvers? Strong understanding of sustainability as a content area Strong systems thinking skills The ability to comfortably shift among disciplinary, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary perspectives Developing skills and willingness to communicate across, not only the traditional STEM disciplines, but also expand to include essentially all areas of human thought and endeavor

44. Who are 21st Century Problem Solvers? Developing the art of questioning An acute awareness of values-based learning Ability to connect result with real world consequences Ability to devise, understand, and choose among several multi-faceted solutions

45. Your Turn

46. Global climate change Long-lived organic toxins in our food chains Pernicious extreme poverty and hunger Lack of access to primary education Gaps in gender equality Childhood mortality Deadly diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria Explain why these are 21 st century problems.