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USING GIS FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT J.R. NUCKOLS, PhD COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY, FORT COLLINS, COLORADO, USA

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Presentation on theme: "USING GIS FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT J.R. NUCKOLS, PhD COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY, FORT COLLINS, COLORADO, USA"— Presentation transcript:

1 USING GIS FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT J.R. NUCKOLS, PhD COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY, FORT COLLINS, COLORADO, USA

2 GOALS FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES –GEOSPATIAL SCIENCE –HEALTH SCIENCE –ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT PROCESS - ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY STATE OF THE SCIENCE – GIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY

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4 FUNDAMENTALS GEOSPATIAL SCIENCE –SCALE –RESOLUTION –VALIDATION ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE –GEOPHYSICAL PLAUSIBILITY –MEAUREMENT DATA –ALGORITHMS –VALIDATION EPIDEMIOLOGY –BIOLOGICAL PLAUSIBILITY –CONFOUNDING FACTORS –STATISTICAL POWER

5 ENVIRONMENTAL = SPATIAL ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY: Evaluates associations between environmental exposures and health outcomes, with the purpose of further understanding the etiology of disease

6 COMMON SPATIAL FACTORS EPIDEMIOLOGY CONTAMINANT OF INTEREST STUDY POPULATION DEMOGRAPHICS INCIDENCE OF DISEASE EXPOSURE ASSMT SOURCE ID SYSTEM BOUNDARY FATE/TRANSPORT EXPOSURE METRIC

7 GIS-Based Exposure Assessment: Agricultural Chemicals and Childhood Cancer Principal Co-Investigators: Dr. Mary H. Ward, NCI-OEB Dr. Peggy Reynolds, CDHS-EHIB Mr. Robert Guiner, CDHS-EHIB Mr. Ryan Miller, USDA-APHIS Funding: USDHHS-NIH-NCI grants RO3 CA83071, RO1CA71745, and RO1CA92683, and USDHHS-NIH-NCI Occupational and Environmental Epidemiology Branch.

8 San Francicso Sacramento Fresno Kilometers STATE OF CALIFORNIA, USA

9 The Problem… landscape trends Highly integrated landscapes… …with multiple applications to many fields. Complex landscapes = Complex Processes … … Pesticide Use Patterns are Complex … Variable application method Aerial Ground Orchard Blast Fumigation Chemgation … Variable in time and space

10 CONTAMINANT OF INTEREST SOURCE IDENTIFICATION

11 Selection of Pesticides 850 Pesticides in California Pesticide Use Reporting Database Prioritized Study Pesticides based on: –Carcenogenicity –Transportability –Use in our study area 6 Pesticides in initial study, Approx 30 will be analyzed in validation study

12 California Pesticide Use Reporting Database Fresno, Madera, Kings, and Tulare Counties Fresno

13 STUDY POPULATION FATE/TRANSPORT

14 CPUR Expossure Metric Section A Section B 1,400 lbs - Methyl Bromide Applied to Grapes CASE/CONTROL RESIDENCE

15 California Department of Water Resources Database Fresno, Madera, Kings, and Tulare Counties Row and Field Crops Rice Orchards Urban Land Pasture Surface Water Vineyards Fresno Grain and Hay Crops

16 CDWR Metric Section A Section B 1,400 lbs - Methyl Bromide Applied to Grapes Vineyard Spatial Refinement of Pesticide Use Data Residences

17 0.4 1,230

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20 EPIDEMIOLOGICAL RISK EXPOSURE METRIC

21 SENSITVITY AND SPECIFICITY OF THE PUR EXPOSURE METRIC USING THE CDWR METRIC AS THE GOLD STANDARD TrifuralinSimazinePropargiteDicofol Methyl Bromide Sensitivity 100% Specificity 78%72%68%87%74% Prevalence 2.1%0.3%3.8%2.4%2.1%

22 Non-differential exposure misclassification Example: 2% exposure prevalence, true RR = Specificity Sensitivity Source: Norell SE, 1987

23 VALIDATION

24 IOWA NHL STUDY: Satellite image boundaries & residences (from Ward et al., 2003)

25 750 m OR = 11.0 OR = 3.5 OR = 2.8 OR = 1.6* *Not statistically significantRef: Ward et al. (2003) Odds Ratio (OR) of detecting 1 of 9 herbicides in house dust Residences with vs without corn or soybean fields in buffer N = 112 residences Residence

26 SCORECARD GEOSPATIAL SCIENCE –SCALE –RESOLUTION –VALIDATION ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE –GEOPHYSICAL PLAUSIBILITY –MEAUREMENT DATA –ALGORITHMS –VALIDATION EPIDEMIOLOGY –BIOLOGICAL PLAUSIBILITY –CONFOUNDING FACTORS –STATISTICAL POWER

27 STATE OF THE SCIENCE EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT RESEARCH

28 INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT IN THE USA PROGRAMS –Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry –National Cancer Institute –Unites States Environmental Protection Agency –Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ISSUES –FEASIBILITY –COST –IMPLEMENTATION

29 PROPOSED RESEARCH INITIATIVES MORE CASE STUDIES / METHODS DEVEL AND VALIDATION ROLE OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND STATISTICS UNCERTAINTY IN EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS – INCORPORATING TEMPORAL ASPECT LONG TERM STUDY SITES

30 Understanding ecological phenomena over long temporal and large spatial scales. Create a legacy of well-designed and documented long-term experiments. Conducting major synthetic and theoretical efforts. Providing information for the identification and solution of ecological problems. NSF Long Term Ecological Research Network

31 International LTER Network Currently 21 Countries Actively Contribute

32 Proposed NCI Geographic-Based Surveillance Project Disease Incidence Ecological Information Understanding Long Term Influence of Environmental Factors.

33 CONCLUSIONS USE OF GIS IS FEASIBLE FOR EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT –USE OF GIS CAN IMPROVE EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH ESSENTIAL –MUST CONSIDER FUNDAMENTALS OF EACH SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINE NEED EXPANDED EDUCATIONAL AND INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT


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