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Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute The Complexity Experience An introduction.

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Presentation on theme: "Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute The Complexity Experience An introduction."— Presentation transcript:

1 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute The Complexity Experience An introduction to modeling and simulation of complex systems Michel MORVAN – Chairman, The CoSMo Company

2 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute COMPLEX SYSTEMS HIERARCHICAL DYNAMICALY COUPLED HETEROGENEOUS MULTI-SCALE

3 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute WHAT IS TRUE IN BIOLOGY IS ALSO TRUE FOR OTHER DOMAINS HIERARCHICAL COUPLED DYNAMICLY HETEROGENEOUS MULTI-SCALE

4 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute TWO CRITICAL POINTS Complex systems modeling Complex systems simulation

5 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute TWO CRITICAL POINTS Complex systems modeling How to run simulations on complex systems ?

6 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute Real Estate Water Supply System Population Waste Water Treatment Transport System Smart Grid Biofuel Production Energy System Waste Treatments Food & Goods Renewable Energies Logistics Quality of life THE EXAMPLE OF SYSTEMS IN A CITY

7 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute HOW WE TEND TO SEE IT Real Estate Water Supply System Population Transport System Smart Grid Biofuel Production Energy System Waste Treatments Food & Goods Renewable Energies Logistics Quality of life 132

8 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute SIMPLIFICATION

9 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute IF YOU DONT GO THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS…

10 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute … YOU WONT DISCOVER THE WONDERFULL OPPORTUNITIES OFFERED BY COMPLEX SYSTEMS MODELING!

11 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute THE SFI MOTTO FROM SIMPLICITY TO COMPLEXITY!

12 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute TWO CRITICAL POINTS How to model complex systems ? Complex systems simulations

13 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute CHAOTIC BEHAVIOUR STRUCTURAL UNPREDICTIBILITY STUDY THEM VIA SIMULATION WHY DO WE NEED SIMULATION ? COMPLEX SYSTEM ARE ALMOST UNPREDICTABLE

14 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute EMERGENT PHENOMENA SYSTEM RESILIENCY / ADAPTABILITY ROBUSTNESS / VULNERABILITY MANAGE AND UNDERSTAND CASCADING EFFECTS WHY CAN WE DO WITH SIMULATION ?

15 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute THE NEED OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS SIMULATION Resilience tests Optimization Sensitivity analysis EX : Test and improve emergency plans, optimize crisis management CAPEX and OPEX EX : Optimize the maintenance of a big energy network, evaluate and reduce the environmental impact of a new infrastructure, define the optimal configuration of a complex multi-modal transport network or supply chain. EX : Test and improve the robustness of a supply chain (ensure continuity of service), improve the robustness of critical systems (water networks in refinery plants) Testing Scenarios EX : Measuring the impact of urban master plans on a set of different KPIs such as GHG emissions, congestion, …

16 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF NEW INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS ON THE CITY OF VERSAILLES ? TESTING SCENARIOS – COSMO + ESRI

17 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute LAND USE MODEL DISCTRICTS, AREAS, BUILDINGS NEW BUILDINGS & INFRASTRUCTURE OCCUPATION RULES HOW IS THE LAND USED AND WHAT RULES DEFINE IT ?

18 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute TRANSPORT NETWORK MODEL ROADS PUBLIC TRANSPORTS GHG DIFFUSION RULES NOISE HOW DOES THE TRANSPORTATION NETWORK IS ORGANIZED AND HOW DOES IT WORKS ?

19 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute INVESTMENT MODEL INVESTMENT RULE OFFER & DEMAND DIFFERENT SOCIO- ECONOMICS NEEDS HOW DOES INVESTMENT FIRMS BEHAVE ?

20 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute COUPLING THE 3 MODELS ? ? ? HOW DOES THOSE THREE MODELS INTERACT ?

21 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute STEP 1: BUILD CONCEPTUAL MODELS

22 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute LOAD DATA (MAINLY FROM GIS) STEP 2: INSTANTIATE MODELS ON THE SPECIFIC CITY

23 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute REAL ESTATE PRICES

24 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute POPULATION DENSITY

25 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute EXISTING AND PLANNED INFRASTRUCTURE

26 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute STEP THREE : RUN YOUR SIMULATION

27 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute DENSITY EVOLUTION ( ) STEP FOUR : VISUALIZE AND ANALYZE THE RESULTS

28 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute ROAD CONGESTION EVOLUTION ( )

29 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute GHG EMISSION EVOLUTION ( )

30 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute EVIDENCE BASED DECISION GHG evolution with public transport incentivisation GHG evolution without public transport incentivisation SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 RUN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND CHOOSE THE MOST EFFECTIVE ONE

31 Propriété exclusive de The CoSMo Company – Ne pas diffuser / Exclusive property of The CoSMo Company – Do not distribute MODELING AND SIMULATION TRAINING: COSMO + SYSTEMX 1 day – End of January (date to be confirmed) 20 to 25 persons SystemX offices Offered for CSD&M participants


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