Presentation on theme: "Rich Byrne Vice President, The MITRE Corporation"— Presentation transcript:
1 Rich Byrne Vice President, The MITRE Corporation firstname.lastname@example.org ‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World (using the science of complexity)This talk proposes a common root cause for the pervasive problems that plague DOD acquisitions and operations. The traditional systems engineering thinking being used today no longer holds when the systems and their environments are so complex that they require a radical rethink of the basic engineering principles used. A set of these new principles and examples of their impact will be discussed from adaptive C2 systems to enterprise data sharing to reversing the cyber asymmetric threat.Rich ByrneVice President, The MITRE Corporation
2 OPERATIONS: Why is Winning a War Easy, but Keeping the Peace Hard?
3 ACQUISITION: Have We Lost the Recipe for Big Programs?
4 CYBER: How Do You Fight a Virtual War where the Enemy has the all the Asymmetric Advantages?
5 And It’s Not Just in the DOD Financial MeltdownHealthcareCrisis
6 Complexity Theory May Have an Answer! 20022009200320072005
7 Unpredictable Emergent Behavior is Ubiquitous From‘Fixed Perfect’ Requirements(watchmaker)to‘Adapting Good Enough” Requirements(gardener)
8 ‘Adapting Good Enough’ Successes (80% Solution) >60%of Army systems in theater aren’t Programs of RecordCPOFTIGRROVERGMTIPredatorFalconviewInnovation Easier Than Integration(Healthy Complex Networks a Balance!)
9 Composable Capability on Demand (Harmonizing Innovation with Integration)GeoRSS, SensorXMLCoT, UCORE, OntologiesRSS, Mashups, Chat, OfficeIP Gateways, IPoL, IPLoose Couplers for Global Integration across “Groups”APPLICATIONSSOA1SOA2SOA3ESBERPWeb2.0RESTINFO INFRASTRUCTURETADILJLink-22Nato-ExJVMFUSMTFEPLRSACARSSensor breakthrough will change all radar designs of the futureNetworks to the edge using mobile devices and adaptive algorithms promise dramatic connectivity improvements in theaterInfrastructure efficiency through virtualization and rapid, cheap enterprise data sharing through loose coupler conceptsApp stores for military mobile devices and App stores for building ops centers on demandContinuous and Rapid LocalInnovations in “Groups”NETWORKSINMARSATJTIDSJTRSARC210TTNTCTIIPRC117SENSORSSIGINTIMINTOSINTMASINTCellphonesHumansCommercial
10 Virtualization (A Key Enabler of CCoD) SPEEDISPAN: Deployment from 1-12 wks to 8 hrsWEIGHTTDC: Reduced from 1800 to 600 lbsFOOTPRINTAOC: 60% less machines, 78% less power/HVACADAPTABILITYComposable Ops Centers on Demand using App Stores
11 Large Networks Have Radically Different Statistics FromBell CurvestoPower Laws
12 Loose Couplers Applied to Enterprise Data Sharing Blue Force Tracking:What: FriendlyWhere: º...When: 1930Z—…Details:Surveillance results:What: ISR dataWhere: 73º—74º...Details: www. intel.af//...Direct Fire Mission:What: HostileWhere: º...When: 1950Z—…Details: www. biggun.army//...Air Space Deconfliction:What: ReservationWhere: 72º, 73º, 74º,Details: www. batttery.army...
13 UAV Data Sharing Using Loose Couplers (Based on Power Laws) Predator-Link16“we are using the C2PC adapter for our Scan Eagle UAV’s. ..working extremely well…we want more!”S/F, Maj Rob BuzbyIMEF Info Management OfficerCamp Fallujah Iraq (11/12/04)Scan EagleUAV SA JFCOM Cmdr. James M. Joyner, “a de facto standard for tactical system integration." (1/06/05)Pioneer
14 Loose Couplers at Network Level EcommerceApplicationsSearchesDatalinkDiversityApplicationIPTargetingPayrollDWMCable ModemEthernetDatalinksATMDial-Up(loose coupler) IPTechnologiesDSLIP (loose coupler)SONETDatalinksSONETDial-UpATMEthernetCable ModemTechnologiesDWMDSLDiverse Local Innovations Above and Below the Convergent IP Loose Coupler
15 JSTARS & AWACS IP/Chat as Loose Couplers (Based on Power Laws) PC + LegacyRadioRadio DriverIP TransportChatImagerySAIP-Based System
16 Self-Organizing Critical States Are Natural FromCentralized(single failure point)toDecentralized(distributed failure points)
18 Accept Uncertainty From Protection (they will get in) to Resilience (fight thru attack)
19 Resilient Cyber Solutions (Reversing the Asymmetric Advantage) Constantly Change the Attack Surface from a Million Random VariationsVM ‘physics’ is very differentAssume Attacks Will Succeed& Rebuild VMs RoutinelySeparate Internal/ExternalNetworks to Slow DownMassive Data Exfiltration
20 Complexity Best Shaped with Long Term not Short Term Variables FromShort Term Targets (symptoms)toLong Term Targets (underlying diseases)
21 Smart Power’s Longer Term Focus For “Deep Security” Training CampsHuman CapitalFighters and LeadersTechnical ExpertiseWeapons SuppliersSympathetic Membersof Legitimate Govt’sAQAMEXTREMISTIDEOLOGYFinanciers and Front Companies$Safe HavensRecruitment and EducationInternet and ProselytizingMedia and PropagandaIdeologicallySympathetic NGOsFacilitators, SmugglersWMD Research and Development
22 ‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World Emergent Behavior (CCoD) From: Perfect, fixed req’tsTo: Adaptive, good enough req‘ts‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex WorldPower Laws (LOOSE COUPLERS) From: Uniform data interop req’tsTo: 80/20 data interop req’tsSOC (POWER TO THE EDGE) From: Centralized solutionsTo: Decentralized solutionsUncertainty (FIGHT THRU ATTACK) From: Eliminating uncertainty/riskTo: Accepting uncertainty/riskDeep Security (SMART POWER) From: Short-term symptomsTo: Long-term diseases
23 Changing Impossible Problems Into Great Opportunities OPERATIONS: Winning Battles of ComplexityDecentralize: Push power to the edgeAdapt: Enable warriors to compose new capabilities on demandFocus: Address the long term networks, not just the short term threatsACQUISITIONS: Getting Back the RecipeCost: Maintain continuous competition and evolution of small thingsSchedule: Build integrate-able components not integrated systemsPerformance: Fixed perfect req’ts become adaptive good enough req’tsCYBER: Taking Back the Initiative in CyberAsymmetry: Dramatically increase the cost of cyber attacksMission focus: Use technology for effectiveness, not efficiencyDoctrine: Learn to leverage the ‘new’ physics of cyber (time, space, cost)
24 ‘Adapting Good Enough’ For a Complex World Traditional Systems EngThe Gardener: Plant, Fertilize, Weed; Repeat.Enterprise Systems EngDynamic: Constant ChangeCompetitive: Crops competeScale Free: RuleThe Watchmaker: Everything has its place.Static: As Is – To Be ViewsPassive: One Design ChoiceUniform: All Parts Are Equal