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Rich Byrne Vice President, The MITRE Corporation

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1 Rich Byrne Vice President, The MITRE Corporation rbyrne@mitre.org
‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World (using the science of complexity) This talk proposes a common root cause for the pervasive problems that plague DOD acquisitions and operations. The traditional systems engineering thinking being used today no longer holds when the systems and their environments are so complex that they require a radical rethink of the basic engineering principles used. A set of these new principles and examples of their impact will be discussed from adaptive C2 systems to enterprise data sharing to reversing the cyber asymmetric threat. Rich Byrne Vice President, The MITRE Corporation

2 OPERATIONS: Why is Winning a War Easy, but Keeping the Peace Hard?

3 ACQUISITION: Have We Lost the Recipe for Big Programs?

4 CYBER: How Do You Fight a Virtual War where the Enemy has the all the Asymmetric Advantages?

5 And It’s Not Just in the DOD
Financial Meltdown Healthcare Crisis

6 Complexity Theory May Have an Answer!
2002 2009 2003 2007 2005

7 Unpredictable Emergent Behavior is Ubiquitous
From ‘Fixed Perfect’ Requirements (watchmaker) to ‘Adapting Good Enough” Requirements (gardener)

8 ‘Adapting Good Enough’ Successes (80% Solution)
>60% of Army systems in theater aren’t Programs of Record CPOF TIGR ROVER GMTI Predator Falconview Innovation Easier Than Integration (Healthy Complex Networks a Balance!)

9 Composable Capability on Demand
(Harmonizing Innovation with Integration) GeoRSS, SensorXML CoT, UCORE, Ontologies RSS, Mashups, Chat, Office IP Gateways, IPoL, IP Loose Couplers for Global Integration across “Groups” APPLICATIONS SOA1 SOA2 SOA3 ESB ERP Web2.0 REST INFO INFRASTRUCTURE TADILJ Link-22 Nato-Ex JVMF USMTF EPLRS ACARS Sensor breakthrough will change all radar designs of the future Networks to the edge using mobile devices and adaptive algorithms promise dramatic connectivity improvements in theater Infrastructure efficiency through virtualization and rapid, cheap enterprise data sharing through loose coupler concepts App stores for military mobile devices and App stores for building ops centers on demand Continuous and Rapid Local Innovations in “Groups” NETWORKS INMARSAT JTIDS JTRS ARC210 TTNT CTII PRC117 SENSORS SIGINT IMINT OSINT MASINT Cellphones Humans Commercial

10 Virtualization (A Key Enabler of CCoD)
SPEED ISPAN: Deployment from 1-12 wks to 8 hrs WEIGHT TDC: Reduced from 1800 to 600 lbs FOOTPRINT AOC: 60% less machines, 78% less power/HVAC ADAPTABILITY Composable Ops Centers on Demand using App Stores

11 Large Networks Have Radically Different Statistics
From Bell Curves to Power Laws

12 Loose Couplers Applied to Enterprise Data Sharing
Blue Force Tracking: What: Friendly Where: º... When: 1930Z—… Details: Surveillance results: What: ISR data Where: 73º—74º... Details: www. intel.af//... Direct Fire Mission: What: Hostile Where: º... When: 1950Z—… Details: www. biggun.army//... Air Space Deconfliction: What: Reservation Where: 72º, 73º, 74º, Details: www. batttery.army...

13 UAV Data Sharing Using Loose Couplers (Based on Power Laws)
Predator-Link16 “we are using the C2PC adapter for our Scan Eagle UAV’s. ..working extremely well…we want more!” S/F, Maj Rob Buzby IMEF Info Management Officer Camp Fallujah Iraq (11/12/04) Scan Eagle UAV SA JFCOM Cmdr. James M. Joyner, “a de facto standard for tactical system integration." (1/06/05) Pioneer

14 Loose Couplers at Network Level
Ecommerce Applications Searches Datalink Diversity Application IP Targeting Payroll DWM Cable Modem Ethernet Datalinks ATM Dial-Up (loose coupler) IP Technologies DSL IP (loose coupler) SONET Datalinks SONET Dial-Up ATM Ethernet Cable Modem Technologies DWM DSL Diverse Local Innovations Above and Below the Convergent IP Loose Coupler

15 JSTARS & AWACS IP/Chat as Loose Couplers (Based on Power Laws)
PC + Legacy Radio Radio Driver IP Transport Chat Imagery SA IP-Based System

16 Self-Organizing Critical States Are Natural
From Centralized (single failure point) to Decentralized (distributed failure points)

17 COIN Collector on the iPhone

18 Accept Uncertainty From Protection (they will get in) to Resilience
(fight thru attack)

19 Resilient Cyber Solutions (Reversing the Asymmetric Advantage)
Constantly Change the Attack Surface from a Million Random Variations VM ‘physics’ is very different Assume Attacks Will Succeed & Rebuild VMs Routinely Separate Internal/External Networks to Slow Down Massive Data Exfiltration

20 Complexity Best Shaped with Long Term not Short Term Variables
From Short Term Targets (symptoms) to Long Term Targets (underlying diseases)

21 Smart Power’s Longer Term Focus For “Deep Security”
Training Camps Human Capital Fighters and Leaders Technical Expertise Weapons Suppliers Sympathetic Members of Legitimate Govt’s AQAM EXTREMIST IDEOLOGY Financiers and Front Companies $ Safe Havens Recruitment and Education Internet and Proselytizing Media and Propaganda Ideologically Sympathetic NGOs Facilitators, Smugglers WMD Research and Development

22 ‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World
Emergent Behavior (CCoD) From: Perfect, fixed req’ts To: Adaptive, good enough req‘ts ‘Adapting Good Enough’ for a Complex World Power Laws (LOOSE COUPLERS) From: Uniform data interop req’ts To: 80/20 data interop req’ts SOC (POWER TO THE EDGE) From: Centralized solutions To: Decentralized solutions Uncertainty (FIGHT THRU ATTACK) From: Eliminating uncertainty/risk To: Accepting uncertainty/risk Deep Security (SMART POWER) From: Short-term symptoms To: Long-term diseases

23 Changing Impossible Problems Into Great Opportunities
OPERATIONS: Winning Battles of Complexity Decentralize: Push power to the edge Adapt: Enable warriors to compose new capabilities on demand Focus: Address the long term networks, not just the short term threats ACQUISITIONS: Getting Back the Recipe Cost: Maintain continuous competition and evolution of small things Schedule: Build integrate-able components not integrated systems Performance: Fixed perfect req’ts become adaptive good enough req’ts CYBER: Taking Back the Initiative in Cyber Asymmetry: Dramatically increase the cost of cyber attacks Mission focus: Use technology for effectiveness, not efficiency Doctrine: Learn to leverage the ‘new’ physics of cyber (time, space, cost)

24 ‘Adapting Good Enough’ For a Complex World
Traditional Systems Eng The Gardener: Plant, Fertilize, Weed; Repeat. Enterprise Systems Eng Dynamic: Constant Change Competitive: Crops compete Scale Free: Rule The Watchmaker: Everything has its place. Static: As Is – To Be Views Passive: One Design Choice Uniform: All Parts Are Equal


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