1. Complex Projects I think the 21st century will be the century of complexity (Hawking, 2000) Carolyn Limbert, Principal Planner, Harmonic Ltd, October 2013

2. Outline What is Complex? Complex Projects Planning and Control in Complex Projects APM View on Complexity

3. What is Complex? Making Mayonnaise?Building a Jumbo Jet?

4. What is Complex?

7. Aircraft Carrier – Complicated or Complex?

8. National Audit Office – Complex Projects MoD – Ministry of Defence DfT – Department for Transport DCSF – Department for Children, Schools and Families DCLG – Department for Communities and Local Government DCMS – Department for Culture, Media and Sports HO – Home Office MoJ – Ministry of Justice DWP – Department for Work and Pensions DH – Department of Health DECC – Department of Energy and Climate Change HMRC – HM Revenue & Customs (National Audit Office, 2009)

9. Back to Basics New view on PM Technical CostSchedule Technical ScheduleCost ContextFinancing (Strategic Highway Research Program, 2012) The intrinsic complexity of projects, in part, is driven by political, social, technological and environmental issues, as well as tight fiscal pressures, end user expectations which may change dramatically during the life of a project, and government instability. (ICCPM, 2012)

10. Complex Projects Adapted from; (Dombkins, 1997) Scope: WHAT Objectives are to be achieved Delivery: HOW To implement objectives Low Uncertainty High Uncertainty Low Uncertainty Initiation Concept Definition Mobilisation Implementation Closure

11. Complex Projects Adapted from; (Dombkins, 1997) Scope: WHAT Objectives are to be achieved Delivery: HOW To implement objectives Low Uncertainty High Uncertainty Low Uncertainty Closure Initiation Concept Definition Mobilisation Implementation

12. Complex Projects (Remington, 2011) Processes are clear Things go to plan Risk events escalate rapidly Innovation & learning high ComplicatedComplex Simple, best practice leadership Expert based consultative leadership Experimental, collaborative leadership Crisis leadership, directive, rapid action to prevent collapse Tipping point: usually no way back Control Chaos

13. Planning Complexity System Engineering Enterprise Environment Management Enterprise Processes Investment Management System Life Cycle Process Management Resource Management Quality Management Project Processes PlanningAssessmentControl Decision Making Risk Management Configuration Management Information Management Technical Processes Stakeholder Requirements Definition Requirements Analysis Architectural Design ImplementationIntegration VerificationTransitionValidation OperationMaintenance Disposal Enterprise Environment Management Agreement Processes Investment Management Process Guidelines

14. Planning Complexity You cannot optimise a system by separately optimising its components Focus on defining customer needs and required functionality early in the development cycle Understand the whole problem before you try to solve it System Engineering

15. Planning Complexity Scope start with the Finish Scope Management; Product Scope – Required Deliverables meeting the agreed specifications – WHAT? Project Scope – Work required to deliver the product scope – HOW? Upfront Planning: Scope

16. Planning Complexity Must have The Project cannot deliver on the target date without this There is no point deploying the solution without this requirement The solution will not be legal / safe / fit for purpose Should have The requirement is important but not vital The requirement may be painful to leave out but the solution is still viable The requirement may need some form of workaround Could have The requirement is wanted or desirable but less important If the requirement is left out, the impact is minimal Wont have* Project team has agreed it will not deliver this requirement Requirement is not needed for the solution, and is a low priority Agile DSDM – MoSCoW Prioritisation * This time…

17. Planning Complexity Rolling Wave Project Timeline PlanDesignBuildTestHandover Support Planning Detail Gate Review Planning Period

18. Planning Complexity A suggested approach: Design Phase Project Timeline Must Have Requirements Subsystem A Should Have Design ElementsCould Have Design ElementsMust Have Design Elements Should Have Requirements Could Have Requirements Subsystem BSubsystem E Subsystem CSubsystem D Subsystem F Subsystem G

19. Summary Ambiguity heightens complexity Upfront scope planning contributes to project success Fight the rush – you dont want to have implementation starting with no scope definition and no planning Prioritisation – Know your Must Haves from your Could Haves

20. APM Project Complexity Matrix

21. APM Project Complexity