Presentation on theme: "WHERE TRANSPORTATION IS GOING: Transportation in the CLIOS System Era"— Presentation transcript:
1WHERE TRANSPORTATION IS GOING: Transportation in the CLIOS System Era Dean’s LectureSchool of Systems and EnterprisesStevens Institute of TechnologyMarch 20, 2009Joseph M SussmanJR East Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering and Engineering SystemsMIT
2Engineering Science ENGINEERING SYSTEMS Viewed as a distinct approach from the engineering science revolution of the late 1950s and early 1960s. Engineering science built on the physical sciences: physics, mathematics, chemistry, etc., to build a stronger quantitative base for engineering, as opposed to the empirical base of years past.This approach, while extraordinarily valuable, tends to be very micro in scale, and focuses on mechanics as the underlying discipline.Engineering SystemsNow engineering systems takes a step back from the immediacy of the technology and is concerned with how the system in its entirety behaves, for example, emergent behavior of complex systems.
3ENGINEERING SYSTEMS (at the interface of Engineering, Management, & Social Sciences)
4Complex Large-scale Interconnected Open Socio-technical C L I O S SystemComplexLarge-scaleInterconnectedOpenSocio-technical
5C L I O S System Complex Structural complexity The number of components in the system and the network of interconnections between themBehavioral complexityThe type of behavior that emerges due to the manner in which sets of components interactEvaluative complexityThe competing perspectives of stakeholders who have different views of “good” system performanceNested Complexity- The interaction between a complex “physical” domain and a complex “institutional” sphereComplex
6Nested Complexity Physical system More quantitative principles Engineering & economic modelsInstitutional “sphere”More qualitative in nature and often more participatoryStakeholder evaluation and organizational analysisDifferent methodologies are requiredwithin the physical systembetween the policy system and the physical systemwithin the policy systemInstitutional SpherePhysical System
7TRANSPORTING SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL Large-scale in Geographic extent, and C L I O S SystemTRANSPORTING SPENT NUCLEAR FUELLarge-scale inGeographic extent, andImpactComplexLarge-scaleYucca Mountain
8TRANSPORTING SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL Transportation interconnected with: C L I O S SystemTRANSPORTING SPENT NUCLEAR FUELTransportation interconnected with:EnergyGlobal Climate ChangeComplexLarge-scaleInterconnected
9Social Factors Political Factors Economic Factors C L I O S SystemTRANSPORTING SPENT NUCLEAR FUELComplexLarge-scaleInterconnectedOpenSocial FactorsRiskPolitical FactorsGeopoliticsEconomic FactorsDevelopment
10TRANSPORTING SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL Complex Technology C L I O S SystemAn Example of a Socio-technical System:ComplexLarge-scaleInterconnectedOpenSocio-technicalTRANSPORTING SPENT NUCLEAR FUELComplex TechnologyImportant Social Impacts
11DESIGN, EVALUATION, SELECTION The C L I O S ProcessREPRESENTATIONImplementationDESIGN, EVALUATION, SELECTIONA 3-Stage, 12-step, iterative process used to study CLIOS SystemsWe develop a new process as a customized CLIOSTemplate for customized processesNested complexity: good fit for the issue
12DRIVING FACTORS IN TRANSPORTATION Sussman, Joseph M., “The New Transportation Faculty: The Evolution to Engineering Systems”, Transportation Quarterly, Eno Transportation Foundation, Washington, DC, Summer 1999.
13Transportation Eras Infrastructure Era Transportation Systems Era The Transportationas CLIOSSystems Era
14Focus on physical facilities Focus on mobility Infrastructure EraBuild what “they” wantFocus on physical facilitiesFocus on mobilityFocus on economic growthLargely a modal perspective
15Transportation Systems Era Economics-based frameworkSupplyDemandEquilibriumNetworksFocus on economic development and environmental concernsFocus on both mobility and accessibilityRecognition of unpriced externalities as causing problems – congestion, air quality, sprawlIntermodal Perspective (largely limited to freight)
16The Transportation as CLIOS System Era Focused on transportation as aComplex, Large-scale, Interconnected, Open, Socio-technical (CLIOS) SystemCharacterized by:Advanced Technology and MathematicsInstitutional Change – the New Concept of Enterprise ArchitectureTransportation Connected to other Sociotechnical SystemsExpanded Role for Stakeholders and a Broader Definition of Interested Stakeholders“Macro-design” Performance Considerations for the Transportation Enterprise – the “ilities”
17The Transportation as CLIOS System Era is Characterized by: Advanced Technology and Mathematics Enabling…Operations FocusTailored Customer ServiceA Rich Information EnvironmentA Higher and More Effective Level of Intermodalism Extending into Supply Chain ManagementLarge-scale Optimization
18The Transportation as CLIOS System Era is Characterized by: Advanced Technology and Mathematics Enabling… (cont.)Disaggregate Demand AnalysisReal-time Network Control and Provision of Traveler InformationVehicle Automation and a Crash-Avoidance Safety PerspectiveSophisticated PricingYield ManagementPricing of ExternalitiesRegionally-scaled Transportation Operations and Management
19The Transportation as CLIOS System Era is Characterized by: Institutional Change—the New Concept of Enterprise ArchitecturePublic Sector Change—among and within levels of governmentPrivate Sector Change – with new business models and players beyond the traditional onesPublic/ Private Relationships/ Partnerships
20The Transportation as CLIOS System Era is Characterized by: Institutional Change—the New Concept of Enterprise Architecture(cont.)An International/Global PerspectiveandThe Challenge of Operating Regionally and with Advanced TechnologyThe Relationship of Logistics and Supply Chain Management to Regional Strategic Transportation Planning and the Idea of Transportation Investment and Operations as a Means to Enhance Regional Competitive Advantage
21The Transportation as CLIOS System Era is Characterized by: Transportation Connected to other Sociotechnical SystemsEnvironmentEnergyEconomicGlobal Climate ChangeNational Defense/ GeopoliticsTelecommunications
22The Transportation as CLIOS System Era is Characterized by: Expanded Role for Stakeholders and a Broader Definition of Interested StakeholdersIn system definition and representationIn developing performance metricsIn developing strategic alternativesIn considering implementation strategiesIn decision-making
23The Transportation as CLIOS System Era is Characterized by: “Macro-design” Performance Considerations for the Transportation Enterprise---the “ilities”(in addition to traditional micro-design considerations such as cost, level-of service (LOS) variables such as price, travel time, service reliability, service frequency, safety….)FlexibilityAdaptabilityRobustnessResilience (the opposite of vulnerability)ScalabilityModularityStability …
24The Transportation as CLIOS System Era is Characterized by: “Macro-design” Performance Considerations for the Transportation Enterprise---the “ilities”… and, perhaps the most important “ility”SUSTAINABILITYas an overarching design principle–The 3 Es---Economics, Environment and Social Equity
26How Transportation Must Change in Academia Reaching beyond engineering to management, social science, planning.Recognizing the need for qualitative as well as quantitative analysis.Eschewing narrow representations of complex systems that can be formally solved, but that have little relevance to real-world issues.
27How Transportation Must Change in Academia Realizing that “optimal” solutions are often beyond the pale; a small set of feasible solutions is often all we can hope for because of evaluative complexity.Learning to approach with considerable humility, our intervention in complex socio-technical domains – remember that behavioral complexity makes predictions extraordinarily difficult.Relating our work in education and research to those of colleagues in other domains – Energy, Manufacturing, Logistics, Telecommunications – these are all CLIOS Systems too.