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© 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Engineering a Complex System: The Air & Space Operations Center (AOC) as a Complex Systems Exemplar Doug.

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Presentation on theme: "© 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Engineering a Complex System: The Air & Space Operations Center (AOC) as a Complex Systems Exemplar Doug."— Presentation transcript:

1 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Engineering a Complex System: The Air & Space Operations Center (AOC) as a Complex Systems Exemplar Doug Norman Senior Technical Advisor, AOC-WS Dept Head, AF Battle Management / Command & Control dnorman@mitre.org 22 Oct 2004 2004 MIT SDM Alumni Conference Innovative Product and System Development

2 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Caveat The author's affiliation with The MITRE Corporation is provided for identification purposes only, and is not intended to convey or imply MITRE's concurrence with, or support for, the positions, opinions or viewpoints expressed by the author.

3 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Outline for Discussion n What is an AOC? n Whats the issue? Why Rethink Systems Engineering? n Complexity and Complex Systems n Engineering Complex Systems

4 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Roche cites AOC as Top Weapon

5 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 TBMCS: the Engine of the AOC 03 Association for Enterprise Integration (AFEI) winner – Excellence in Enterprise Integration

6 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 An AOC

7 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 What an AOC Does: e.g.Global Strike CONOPS AOC WS is the Key C2ISR node and enabler for GSTF

8 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 How it does it: Todays ATO Process JFCCOMPONENTCOORD JOINT JOINT ATO ATODEVELOPMENT WEAPONEERINGALLOCATION FORCE EXECUTION ASSESSMENT STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT Find Fix Track Target Engage Assess TST

9 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 How it does it: AOC Block 10.1 System List Mission Applications 1. Collection Management Mission Application 2. Command and Control Information Processing System 3. Command and Control Personal Computer 4. Generic Area Limitation Environment Lite 5. Global Command and Control System 6. Global Decision Support System 7. Global Transportation Network 8. Imagery Product Library 9. Information Warfare Planning Capability 10. Interim Targeting Solution 11. Joint Deployable Intelligence Support System 12. Operational Model Exploiting GPS Accuracy 13. PC Integrated Intelligence and Imagery 14. Planning and Decision Aid System 15. Personnel Recovery Mission Software 16. Portable Flight Planning System 17. RAINDROP 18. Requirement Management System 19. Space Battle Management Core System 20. Theater Battle Management Core System 21. Theater Weather Server 22. Worldwide Origin Threat System 23. Weapons System Video 24. Combat Survivor/Evader Locator 25. Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance Manager 26. Time Critical Targeting – F 27. All Source Satellite Evaluation Tool 28. Commanders Tactical Terminal 29. Generic Area Limitation Environment 30. Global Command and Control System – I3 31. Powerscene Services 32. Air Operations Net 33. Broadsword 34. Defense Message System 35. Global Broadcast System 36. INTELINK and INTELINK-S 37. Joint Collaboration Environment 38. NSA Threat Warning Net 39. Predator Video 40. Purple Net 41. Tactical Data Information Exchange System-Broadcast 42. Tactical Intelligence Broadcast System 43. Tactical Related Applications 44. CSP AUTODIN 45. Internet Relay Chat 46. Combat Track II 47. Hummingbird Exceed 48. JWARN 49. Global Hawk Access 50. Geospatial Product Library (Eagle Express) 51. Multi-Media Message Manager (M3 AMHS) 52. Outlook Web Access (OWA) 53. Sky Media Infrastructure 54. Data wall 55. Domain Core 56. Perimeter Security System 57. JICO Support System 58. Radiant Mercury 59. Imagery Support Server Environment Guard 60. Community of Interest Network 61. C2 Weapon System Part Task Trainer 62. Joint Worldwide Intelligence Comm System 63. Sensitive but Unclassified Internet Protocol Net 64. Secure Internet Protocol Router Network 65. Tactical Data Links in formats A, B, J 66. Air Defense System Integrator – TSQ-214 67. Deployable Transit-case System 68. Joint Tactical Air Ground System 69. Precision Lightweight Global Position Receiver 70. Tactical Data Processing Suite 71. Tactical Data Terminal 72. Tactical Receive Suite 73. Air Force DoDIIS Infrastructure (aka JEDI) 74. AOC Security Portal 75. Access Net 76. CENTRIX-S 77. Gigabyte Ethernet 78. GPS Timing 79. Network Appliance Filer System (NAS) 80. STAMPS 81. Multi-Level Security Capabilities Improved ATO production & dissemination Common air picture Initial Formal Training Unit (FTU) infrastructure Initial Battlespace Visual. Initial TCT Capability Initial Plans Automation Initial ISR Management Limited Coalition Interop Transportable – limited deployability Improved M2M Initial Info Services Capability Airspace management Collaboration (chat) Comm/Info management Common weather picture IW/Space Air Mobility Coordination Combat Search and Rescue

10 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 What is Traditional Systems Engineering (TSE)? n Definition taken from the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE – www.incose.org ):www.incose.org Systems Engineering is an interdisciplinary approach and means to enable the realization of successful systems. It focuses on defining customer needs and required functionality early in the development cycle, documenting requirements, then proceeding with design synthesis and system validation while considering the complete problem: –Operations –Performance –Test –Manufacturing –Cost & Schedule –Training & Support –Disposal Systems Engineering integrates all the disciplines and specialty groups into a team effort forming a structured development process that proceeds from concept to production to operation. Systems Engineering considers both the business and the technical needs of all customers with the goal of providing a quality product that meets the user needs. What are the boundary conditions for this to be successful?

11 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Boundary conditions for TSE n Boundaries for successful applications of TSE: –The specific desired outcome must be known a priori, and it must be clear and unambiguous (implied in this is that the edges of the system, and thus responsibility, are clear and known); –There must be a single, common manager who is able to make decisions about allocating available resources to ensure completion; –Change is introduced and managed centrally; –There must be fungible resources (that is money, people, time, etc.) which can be applied and reallocated as needed.

12 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 The tension between users and acquirers… n User-assessed value is related to: –Immediate usefulness to the operators –Agility of potential interconnections and interconnected elements –Acceptance of innovation n Both technical and operational n The Operators Problem with current Acquisition as the source of AOCs: –Late to need –Too bureaucratic –Seldom delivers whats needed –Too expensive –Too-early demand for unknown (and potentially unknowable) answers to needs –Hard to argue with, and win – they tend to have the documentation justifying what theyve done n But often, what they do feels wrong n The problem is probably Systems Engineering – and that which it implies and includes –Why Rethink Systems Engineering? –Complexity and Complex Systems –Engineering Complex Systems –Complex Systems Engineering in Practice

13 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Observation 1: No grand design possible n The AOC System of Systems is an opportunistic aggregation, not a design –Only the AOC System Program Office (SPO), which has the acquisition responsibility, has a strong interest in an AOC design, yet it has no way to impose its design on others, –As currently structured, since many of the elements dont belong to the AOC SPO, and the AOC SPO has the responsibility for the integration, delivery, and operational admin of the AOC, the AOC SPO has insufficient authority to execute its responsibilities, –Since the AOC doesnt spend its money for many of the elements, the element-owners have little incentive to comply with an AOC design, –The need for, and the appearance of, a specific new tool or application at the AOC is often driven by a new, immediate need.

14 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Multiple System-owners ESC-Managed Systems in Red Mission Applications 1. Collection Management Mission Application (Navy) 2. Command and Control Information Processing System (AMC) 3. Command and Control Personal Computer (USMC) 4. Generic Area Limitation Environment Lite (NRO) 5. Global Command and Control System (ESC/DI) 6. Global Decision Support System (AMC) 7. Global Transportation Network (TRANSCOM) 8. Imagery Product Library (NIMA) 9. Information Warfare Planning Capability (ESC/SR) 10. Interim Targeting Solution (AFRL) 11. Joint Deployable Intelligence Support System (NMIC) 12. Operational Model Exploiting GPS Accuracy (ESC/NDC) 13. PC Integrated Intelligence and Imagery (ESC/ACJ) 14. Planning and Decision Aid System (NSA) 15. Personnel Recovery Mission Software (JPRA) 16. Portable Flight Planning System (ESC/ACU) 17. RAINDROP (COTS) 18. Requirement Management System (DIA) 19. Space Battle Management Core System (ESC/NDC) 20. Theater Battle Management Core System (ESC/ACF) 21. Theater Weather Server (ESC/ACW) 22. Worldwide Origin Threat System (ESC/NDC) 23. Weapons System Video (AF/SCM) 24. Combat Survivor/Evader Locator (SMC/CZJ) 25. Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance Manager (ESC/SR) 26. Time Critical Targeting – F (ESC/ACF) 27. All Source Satellite Evaluation Tool (NRO) 28. Commanders Tactical Terminal (ESC/SR) 29. Generic Area Limitation Environment (NRO) 30. Global Command and Control System – I3 (ESC/DI) 31. Powerscene (n/a) Services 32. Air Operations Net (n/a) 33. Broadsword (AFRL) 34. Defense Message System (SSG) 35. Global Broadcast System (ESC/MC) 36. INTELINK and INTELINK-S (n/a) 37. Joint Collaboration Environment (COTS) 38. NSA Threat Warning Net (n/a) 39. Predator Video (ESC/SRG) 40. Purple Net (n/a) 41. Tactical Data Information Exchange System-Broadcast (ESC/SR)* 42. Tactical Intelligence Broadcast System (ESC/SR)* 43. Tactical Related Applications (ESC/SR)* 44. CSP AUTODIN 45. Internet Relay Chat (COTS) 46. Combat Track II (ESC/SRK) 47. Hummingbird Exceed (COTS) 48. JWARN (USMC SC) 49. Global Hawk Access (ASC/RAV) 50. Geospatial Product Library (Eagle Express) (NIMA) 51. Multi-Media Message Manager (M3 AMHS) (ESC/SR) 52. Outlook Web Access (OWA) (COTS) 53. Sky Media Infrastructure 54. Data wall (n/a) 55. Domain Core (n/a) 56. Perimeter Security System (ESC/ACF) 57. JICO Support System (ESC/ACF) 58. Radiant Mercury (ARFL) 59. Imagery Support Server Environment Guard (ARFL) 60. Community of Interest Network (n/a) 61. C2 Weapon System Part Task Trainer (AFC2TIG) 62. Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications System (n/a) 63. Sensitive but Unclassified Internet Protocol Network (n/a) 64. Secure Internet Protocol Router Network (n/a) 65. Tactical Data Links in formats A, B, J (n/a) 66. Air Defense System Integrator – TSQ-214 (ESC/DI) 67. Deployable Transit-case System (ESC/SRG) 68. Joint Tactical Air Ground System (Army) 69. Precision Lightweight Global Position Receiver (n/a) 70. Tactical Data Processing Suite (ESC/SR)* 71. Tactical Data Terminal (ESC/SR)* 72. Tactical Receive Suite (ESC/SR)* 73. Air Force DoDIIS Infrastructure (aka JEDI) (AFRL) 74. AOC Security Portal (n/a) 75. Access Net 76. CENTRIX-S (n/a) 77. Gigabyte Ethernet (n/a) 78. GPS Timing (n/a) 79. Network Appliance Filer System (NAS) (n/a) 80. STAMPS 81. Multi-Level Security (n/a) Over 30 separate PEs are represented in the AOC

15 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Observation 2: Issues with Integration n Integration-enabling technologies, and integration developments (glueware), are grafted onto the elements (systems) of the AOC after delivery –Each element in the aggregate is designed and built with its own understanding of the world – around its own set of conceptual atoms n Integration among these elements requires effort to understand and bring these potentially disparate conceptual atoms in line so they can be composed –Integration is a source of work and revenue – using todays business model (employer/contractor) contractors sell engineering hours n Big Integration is a potential cash-cow for those who perform it n Little incentive to limit the work, or find ways to be more effective –Late integration guarantees the delivery of an integrated, operational AOC will lag behind the availability of the individual elements; however, the expectation from the field is that general availability and integrated are synonymous. This potential disappointment is further compounded by the need to expend additional funds for the integration proper.

16 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Observation 3: Funds for Integration n Funds for integration are limited –Ability for user to wait is limited –Barriers for building automated functionality (in software) are low, setting expectations that its easy and quick –Integration tends to be built around a defined work flow which implements a specific concept of operation. Integration glue which implements the CONOP binds systems into rigid relationships. This is contrary to achieving agility and netcentricity. –Testing issues

17 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Observation 4: Planning and Expectations n Planning as a primary SoS strategy has problems –Focuses on the future – but is based in the past n Imposes expectations, and dependencies, on partially-interested participants n Design implied in the plan is based on todays understandings. As things change in the world all the elements to be composed are subject to different pressures and decisions which likely will not align n Measures of Success based on promises – not achievements –Plans focus on things rather than collaborations about things

18 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Where we spend our resources What we ignore Observation 5: What consumes our time and resources? Half-life of entity Short Long Breadth of utility Narrow Wide Operator Position Tools Decision Support Tools Shared Understanding (Language) Storage, Access Technologies & Information Distribution Services Loose Coupling Tight Coupling Information Services Communitys Information Architecture Waters the eyes Considered boring… mere details Assumed Knowledge

19 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 The Issue(s), so far (condensed) n The Govt (and industry in general – world wide, in fact) has been unable to build large systems, or integrate systems into larger collections predictably. –This is as true for the AOC as it is for others… –How do we position ourselves and our engineering activities to avoid this outcome? n For the most part, todays systems are not composable. The systems: –Dont share a common conceptual basis. –Arent built for the same purpose, or for use within specific work flows, or for use exclusively at AOCs, –Share an acquisition environment which pushes them to be stand alone (regardless of any statements to the contrary), –Have no common control or management, –Dont share common funding which can be directed to problems as required, –Many of the systems have many customers, of which the AOC is only one, –Evolve at different rates (as do system components). Integrating the AOC is an unbounded, unpredictable engineering activity

20 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Can TSE be applied to the AOC? n Boundaries for successful applications of TSE: –The specific desired outcome must be known a priori, and it must be clear and unambiguous (implied in this is that the edges of the system, and thus responsibility, are clear and known); n Not true for the AOC –There must be a single, common manager who is able to make decisions about allocating available resources to ensure completion; n Not true for the AOC –Change is introduced and managed centrally; n Not true for the AOC (although it attempts to be) –There must be fungible resources (that is money, people, time, etc.) which can be applied and reallocated as needed. n Not True for the AOC TSE does not fit the context of the AOC as currently structured

21 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 So… How can we characterize this new context? n A metaphor: the Watchmaker and the Gardener –A useful (set of) metaphor(s) for framing the differences in problem spaces n The watchmaker – has a specific outcome –Develops and uses an a priori design which has been well- vetted, and well-analyzed n Can prove the design – it is correct & complete n Can price the design – all requirements/elements are known and stable n Can schedule the creation n The gardener – has an outcome space –Develops a desired outcome; generally an architecture-like statement of acceptability n Specific result not known a priori n Sense – and – respond to conditions as they emerge n Guides garden into the desired outcome space Sounds like a complexity problem?

22 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 What is Complexity? n A measure of potentiality n It does not mean Difficult to understand n Contrast with Intricacy n Mousetrap example Mousetrap® Game by Milton Bradley Intricate Complex http://www.ento.csiro.au/science/ants/pests.htm Ants at honey Intricate Complex Shannon number Low High brittle resilient

23 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 What is a Complex System? n A Complex System is a system: –Whose structure and behavior is not deducible, nor may it be inferred, from the structure and behavior of its component parts; –Characteristics by the presence of independent agents which introduce changes –Whose elements can change in response to imposed pressures from neighboring elements (note the reciprocal and transitive implications of this); –Has a large number of useful potential arrangements of its elements; –That continually increases its own complexity given a steady influx of energy (raw resources); Tend to be both Bottoms-up & Top-down

24 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Is the AOC a Complex System? n A Complex System is a system: –Whose structure and behavior is not deducible, nor may it be inferred, from the structure and behavior of its component parts; n Partially true for the AOC –Characteristics by the presence of independent agents which introduce changes n True for the AOC –Whose elements can change in response to imposed pressures from neighboring elements (note the reciprocal and transitive implications of this); n True for the AOC –Has a large number of useful potential arrangements of its elements; n True for the AOC –That continually increases its own complexity given a steady influx of energy (raw resources); n True for the AOC Yes, the AOC is a Complex System

25 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Yet another Observation: Dissonance and Partial-connectivity between two Ecosystems n Ecosystem 1: User/Ops –About the flow of Information and transformations of information n Ecosystem 2: Business –About the flow of revenue n How is selective pressure realized in each? n What are the interrelations? Flow: Information User/Ops Flow: Revenue Business Needs Things

26 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 What would CSE involve? n Deliberate and accelerated mimicry of the processes that drive Natural Selection –Characteristics of environments supporting natural evolution (an Ecosystem) n Co-existence and interact-ability – required to form an environment n Evolvability – must be able to change n Sensitivity to environment – change a function of selective pressure n Variety – competitors within a niche n Fitness – differential response to environment –Artificial Engineering Environment for (co)Evolution n Development Environment – setting up a continuous interaction space n Outcome Spaces (not outcomes) n Developmental Precepts – forced rules for interaction n Continuous Characterization – continuing selective pressure n Judging – choices made, with consequences n Rewards based on achieved result and value n Safety Regulations – sensitivity to unsuccessful varieties n Duality – the coexistence of build time and run time

27 © 2004 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SDM 2004 Summary n Many systems exist which have the characteristics and behaviors of Complex Systems – such as the AOC n Traditional Systems Engineering only takes one so far n Something akin to Complex Systems Engineering is needed n Complex Systems Engineering should support the deliberate mimicry of evolution/co-evolution


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