Presentation on theme: "21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch1 People & the Planet by John Sulston FRS April 2012 A brief review by Richard Vernon 21st September 2012."— Presentation transcript:
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch1 People & the Planet by John Sulston FRS April 2012 A brief review by Richard Vernon 21st September 2012
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch2 Report background Sir John Sulston FRS was assisted by a working group of 22 experts in the same or related fields. The report was reviewed by an independent panel of 8 experts before being published by the Royal Society in April 2012
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch3 Tips to access People & Planet Printed version available from Royal Society has good Contents page but no index, so: Download electronic version from http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_So ciety_Content/policy/projects/people- planet/2012-04-25-PeoplePlanet.pdfhttp://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_So ciety_Content/policy/projects/people- planet/2012-04-25-PeoplePlanet.pdf One can then search in lieu of index
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch4 Some conventions Least Developed Countries 48 countries mostly in Africa & Asia, with low per capita income & human assets Less Developed Countries Others in Africa & Asia + some in L. America, Caribbean, Pacific Islands. More Developed Countries Europe, N America, Australia, New Zealand & Japan
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch5 3 Key Challenges raise worlds 1.3 billion poorest out of extreme poverty reduce consumption of the most developed and emerging economies slow global population growth
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch6 1st Challenge: 1.3 billion poorest out of extreme poverty In 2000 World leaders commited to Millenium Development Goals – 1 st of which was to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Critical to reducing global inequalities Needs increased per capita consumption for this group – for improved nutrition & health care Needs reduced family size where currently high p.7, 13
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch7 2 nd Challenge: reduce consumption by the rest of us Current levels unsustainable Requires radical change of society & current economic models Requires politicians to effect this Requires us to drive change at political level p. 11, Chap 3.
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch8 3rd Challenge: slow global population growth Policy interventions can impact through investment in: education, especially for females where currently excluded health care including family planning services trade policies to encourage local entreprenurial activities Section 5.4 – p. 91...
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch9 Demographic basics Sulston describes: Total fertility rate (TFR) Demographic transition Replacement fertility Youth dependency ratio Old age dependency ratio Total dependency ratio Demogrpahic dividend Demographic deficit Demographic momentum Demographic inertia See page 17 for a brief explanation of these terms
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch10 Key Demographic components that affect population size & composition Migration (international) Fertility Mortality Demographic Transition shift from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility p15 increase in proportion of old people p. 21 et seq.
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch11 Migration most dynamic population change factor in destination countries increasing: 1990: 156m 2010: 214m (+38%) driven mostly by economic change refugees are only c. 8% (2010) (– was 12% in 1990) p. 26, 103
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch12 Migration: pros & cons Origin countryDestination country + remittances $125billion (cf $60b ODA) - 2004 return with new skills meet labour & skills shortages enhance investment, trade, international relations - brain drain social costs displace workers demands on housing, services p. 36
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch13 Fertility Source of the greatest effect on future population size More Developed Cntrs: mostly < 2.1 Replacement level Least Developed Cntrs: high fertility rates, > 4.2, – population projected to x2 in next 40 years Fertility levels declining everywhere but: due to the Demographic Momentum - see next slide, p16 populations will go on rising for decades p45 due to large proportion of people of child-bearing age eg Niger p38 Ghana – see next slide. p. 30. Recommendation 3.
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch14 Fertility: Demographic Momentum 2010: Ghana population c. 20 million fertility rate of 4 births per woman. If by 2020 fertility declines to replacement level Then in 2060: population would stabilise at c. 40 million. p. 21
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch15 Mortality declined faster than fertility in most Less and Least Developed Countries and especially in infant & child mortality So these are seeing : increase in mothers of child bearing age and greatest population increases p18, 28
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch16 Other issues raised: Age structure rate of ageing & the number of old people in the population are unprecedented in human history. Globally, over 65s: – big variations between More, Less & Least DCs p.26 1950 5% 2010 9% 205020%
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch17 Other issues raised: Urbanisation the increase in proportion of population living in urban areas a global phenomonen, but much faster in the More Developed Countries p28, 34 Least DCsLess DCsMoreDCsGlobal 195029 % 200527 %46 %74 %49 % (2050)(69 %)
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch18 Urbanisation effects + can reduce material consumption + can reduce environmental impact through efficiency delivery of services rapid urbanisation risk of slum conditions – needs well planned provision of water supply, waste disposal, power and other services See Recommendation 5
21 Sept 2012Population Matters Oxford Branch19 Other issues: Gross Domestic Product GDP most widely used indicator of a countrys prosperity but – a poor indicator of degree to which human needs are met – ignores depletion of natural capital: agricultural land, forests, watersheds, fisheries, fresh water etc – becomes a driver of consumption instead of saving p. 13, 58, 87