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The Tubis Family of Quantitative Systems for Integrity Management of Gas Distribution Pipeline Networks Presentation to ONEOK Corporation January 19-21,

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Presentation on theme: "The Tubis Family of Quantitative Systems for Integrity Management of Gas Distribution Pipeline Networks Presentation to ONEOK Corporation January 19-21,"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Tubis Family of Quantitative Systems for Integrity Management of Gas Distribution Pipeline Networks Presentation to ONEOK Corporation January 19-21, 2010

2 Who is Optima Established in 1984 Pioneer in developing models and methods for large-scale decision and optimization problems in: Risk assessment and safety enhancement Asset management Maintenance and improvement strategies for infrastructure networks Optimal replacement and budget planning Characteristics of Problems Solved: Multi-objective problems with budget constraints Uncertainties, incomplete information and probabilistic consequences: optimal decisions under uncertainty Dynamic decisions and multi-stage planning Need for multi-disciplinary effort Optima Inc. Confidential2

3 Systems for Gas Utilities Tubis Comprehensive decision support tool for risk assessment, risk reduction and cost optimization of gas distribution networks Super-Tubis Unique optimization system for monitoring, coordinating, and allocating resources to independent networks to achieve corporate objectives while maintaining independence of network decisions SALAS Innovative, unique, fast and inexpensive tool for segmenting pipe networks and attaching pipe data and histories to individual pipes Meter Sampling and Replacement Model Optimal sampling of residential meters and optimal repair/replacement strategies Gas Supply Planning Model Optimal strategies for purchasing, storing and transporting natural gas when uncertainties in cost, capacity and availability exist Optima Inc. Confidential3

4 Other Systems for Infrastructures Pontis National bridge management system adopted by FHWA and AASHTO, implemented in 48 states. Won 1996 Edelman Prize Road Network Optimization System (NOS) Beginning with Arizona pavement management system, it has transformed network pavement management worldwide. Won 1982 Edelman Prize PRISM Latest generation of road management system implemented in several European countries ASOP System for optimal selection of performance levelswidely used in maintaining non-pavement elements and bridge management Multi-network Management System for City of Beijing Optima Inc. Confidential4

5 Under Development Web-based Tubis system Multi-attribute risk assessment model for plastic pipes (OTD and GTI) Tubis plastic module (ONEOK) Country-wide multi-network optimization model (Portugal, Hungary) Tubis for water networks- Pilot Tubis for electrical transmission networks (feasibility study for PSE&G) Optima Inc. Confidential5

6 Awards The Institute for Management Sciences 1982 Winner of International TIMS Competition and Edelman Prize – for Arizona PMS The Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences 1996 Edelman Finalist Prize – for Pontis Edelman Prize is an annual award to the winner of international competition for the most innovative high impact application of management sciences Optima Inc. Confidential6

7 Infrastructure Management Clients Federal Highway Administration The World Bank Portugal National Road Directorate Ministry of Communications, Saudi Arabia States of California, Arizona, Kansas, Vermont, Washington, Minnesota, North Carolina City of San Francisco City of Beijing National Science Foundation The Urban Institute Optima Inc. Confidential7 World Bank

8 Energy Clients US Department of Energy Gas Research Institute New York Gas Group Gas Technology Institute Rochester Gas and Electric Niagara Mohawk Central Hudson Gas and Electric Pacific Gas and Electric KeySpan Energy Corporation Optima Inc. Confidential8

9 Energy Clients (continued) British Gas Gaz de France Long Island Lighting Company Dominion: Pennsylvania, Ohio ONEOK Corporation New Jersey Natural Gas Consolidated Edison of NY CenterPoint Energy Public Service Electric and Gas Optima Inc. Confidential9

10 Benefits of PMS in Arizona Saved $14 million ($32 vs. $46 million in first year) Saved over $100 million in next 5 years Focal point of centralized decision process Coordinated data gathering and management Made budget requests defensible Optima Inc. Confidential10

11 Impacts of Arizona PMS Pioneering system and impetus for Intermodal Surface Transportation Act Forms the core of courses in infrastructure mgt Some countries and states using the model: Optima Inc. Confidential11 Holland Finland Portugal Hungary Australia (NSW) Saudi Arabia Greece Arizona Kansas Alaska Colorado California New Jersey

12 Impacts of Pontis Major and influential system, adopted by Federal Highway Administration and AASHTO Implemented in 48 States Fundamentally changed all aspects of: Data gathering and information management Maintenance, repair and replacement decisions, and Federal funding allocations for managing bridge networks in US Adopted by several other countries Forms the core of infrastructure management courses in Berkeley, M.I.T. and Cornell, among others Optima Inc. Confidential12

13 Impacts of Tubis Has influenced (we hope) risk management by introducing rigorous analytical methods and learning systems to deal with uncertainties Approved by NY PSC, CA PUC, OPS and NTSB Saved CHG&E 8 mill. in penalties Helped PG&E negotiate budget for cast iron replacement in San Francisco Helped RG&E settle long-standing regulatory issues Optima Inc. Confidential13

14 Introducing our partner PAconsulting.com

15 Introduction to PA Consulting Optima Inc. Confidential15 PA Consulting has a world-wide presence and is involved in Energy in many countries. PA is probably the largest utility consulting firm in the world Revenues $ 660 Million Staffing: ~ 4,000 Revenues $ 660 Million Staffing: ~ 4,000 Americas Boulder, CO Buenos Aires Cambridge, MA Chicago, Il Houston, TX Los Angeles, CA Madison, WI New York, NY Plainsboro, NJ Washington, DC Main U.S. Office In D.C. Asia-Pacific Australia Japan ChinaMalaysia Hong KongNew Zealand Indonesia Singapore Optima and PA Group Inc. are working together to expand their footprint in this market. Europe BelgiumItaly Czech RepublicLuxembourg DenmarkNetherlands FinlandNorway FranceSpain GermanySweden IrelandUnited Kingdom

16 Who is PA? PAs has a number of related practices. Over 20% of PAs market share is in Energy. Optima Inc. Confidential16 Environmental & Resource Analytics Product & Process Engineering Strategy & Marketing Energy Global Strategy & Industries Strategy & Industries Business Transformation Business Transformation Systems Integration & Solutions Systems Integration & Solutions Government Transport & Infrastructure Government Transport & Infrastructure IT Consulting & Technology IT Consulting & Technology Wireless Technology Manufacturing Wholesale Energy Markets Energy Strategy & Risk Management Enterprise Wide Solutions Financial Services Project Management Business Ops & Performance People & Organizational Change IS Implementation Transportation Infrastructure & Dev Services Govt & Public Services Life Sciences & Technology Decision Sciences IT Infrastructure IT Strategy Energy Business Transformation Energy Business Transformation

17 Relevant Experience Optima Inc. Confidential17 PA Energy Clients

18 Management of Pipeline Networks

19 19 Regulatory Environment

20 Optima Inc. Confidential20 The Problem What is the optimal balance between Risk reduction Short-term costs Long-term costs Public perception What is the value of additional inspection/data? What additional data should be collected? What is the optimal pipe replacement policy?

21 Optima Inc. Confidential21 Objectives Reduce risks to public Reduce risks to property Preserve investments in distribution systems Minimize expected long term costs Maintain reliability of service Meet regulatory concerns Coordinate with other activities

22 Optima Inc. Confidential22 Analysis & Decision Making Risk Management of Gas Pipes Individual Recommended Actions Information Data knowledge Need More Information

23 Optima Inc. Confidential23 Issues New regulations External and internal economic concerns Dynamism of budget planning Actions and budge spent now affect: future conditions future risks future actions needed future costs Decisions are made under uncertainty

24 Areas of Uncertainty Physical condition of pipes Soil environment of pipes Rates of deterioration Consistency of past information History on construction, repair and other activities Effect of various factors on failure rates Future regulatory requirements Optima Inc. Confidential24

25 What needs to be done?

26 Optima Inc. Confidential26 Approach Use common basis for assessment of all risks Produce policies that can be quantified justified Show effect of policies (or lack of) on future conditions future risks future budget needs future asset value

27 Design Considerations Comprehensive information management, budget allocation, and planning tool Rigorous, defensible system Require minimum amount of past data Be easy to use and inexpensive to implement. Address corporate and regulatory concerns. Implement, improve and expand Compatible with GIS and other systems Optima Inc. Confidential27

28 This presentation is confidential to Optima Inc. and should not be duplicated or distributed. Overview Optima Incorporated

29 Objective Optima Inc. Confidential29 Tubis is a comprehensive information management, gas pipeline maintenance and risk management system designed to assist gas utilities with decisions in maintenance and replacement planning and resource allocation. The principal objectives of the system are to help in: Increasing public safety, Reducing risks to property, Minimizing overall short and long term costs, and Preserving the integrity of the pipeline system

30 Optima Inc. Confidential30 Specification Experience Opportunity Maintenance Survey History Policy Network Information Risk Management Resource Allocation Replace Repair Mantain Tubis Recommendations

31 Meeting Data Needs The foundation of Tubis information needs is a database of segments from your network and relevant info which is produced jointly with client. We can use geographic information system or a proprietary product developed by Optima, known as SALAS to build it. Optima Inc. Confidential31 Geographic Information Company Leak Data Knowledge & Practice Dynamic Updating

32 Optima Inc. Confidential32 General Features of Tubis A state-of-the-art system to assist planners in pipe replacement decisions A defensible tool for optimal budget planning A database management system for all relevant field, historical, and economic data. A formal mechanism for building on experience and judgment of engineers. Ability to automatically achieve higher accuracy with time.

33 Functions of Tubis Pipe and leak dynamic information management Risk assessment Risk management Optimal pipe replacement Network-wide risk management Network-wide optimization Optima Inc. Confidential33

34 Characteristics of Tubis Provides comprehensive information management Uses existing knowledge base Models learn automatically with time Extensive optimization capabilities Can coordinate with public work opportunities Defensible risk and seismic models Considers economics, risk, environmental, segment specific data, population, and corporate policy Answers what if ? questions Optima Inc. Confidential34

35 Optimization and Planning Models Provides answers for: budget planning resource allocation prioritization of replacements coordination with opportunities effect of budget and length constraints entire or any subset of network resolution of conflicts captures dynamics of decision making utilities specific planning objectives Optima Inc. Confidential35

36 Adaptive Learning of the Prediction Models Learns from future data Adapts the probabilities and/or ranges Direct updating of the probabilities Indirect updating of the probabilities Optima Inc. Confidential36

37 Risk Assessment and Quantification Optima Inc. Confidential37 Probability of corrosion leak, graphitization, break, and joint leak Various levels of risk consequences for every pipe segment in system Seismic activity on pipe rupture and its consequences as a result of Surface faulting Liquefaction Landslides

38 Risk Assessment contd Probability of gas entering buildings is calculated thru various engineering and geotechnical models. All aspects of economical and public safety issues are quantified. Optima Inc. Confidential38

39 Tubis Considers the Risks of: Effect of seismic activity on pipe rupture Surface faulting Liquefaction Landsliding Cast iron breaks Cast iron joint leaks Steel corrosion leaks Plastic slow growth failure Plastic breaks Plastic joint leaks Optima Inc. Confidential39

40 Regulatory Evaluation and Acceptance Tubis has been approved by: New York State Public Service Commission California Public Utilities Commission National Transportation Safety Board Optima Inc. Confidential40

41 Optimal Segmental Policy Model Quantifies risks and other factors in economic terms Detailed replacement cost calculations Sophisticated multi-period optimization model Defensible replacement priority ranking Optima Inc. Confidential41

42 Network Risk Evaluation Ranks all segments by risk For any budget finds optimal set of pipes to be replaced Can accept budgets as constraints by material network geographical divisions administrative divisions Can accept minimum replacement lengths as constraints Optima Inc. Confidential42

43 The Super Tubis Corporate-wide administrative, auditing and budget planning tool Optimal allocation of resources Considers planning needs of each division in overall network decisions Considers budget policies Ties different regional TUBIS and related systems Possibility of expansion to transmission and service lines Optima Inc. Confidential43

44 Benefits Provides least cost maintenance strategy, saves money and reduces risk Comprehensive Flexible, answers what if questions Addresses uncertain nature of pipeline risk and maintenance management Ties in different planning and budgetary policies Optima Inc. Confidential44

45 Who contributed to Tubis? Dr. Kamal Golabi, Principal Investigator Operations Research- modeling and optimization models (Optima) Dr. Chi-Hyuck Jun, Operations Research predictive models (Optima) Dr. James McNab, Corrosion Engineering corrosion models (Exponent) Dr. Rose Ray, Statistics (Exponent) Dr. Shirley Nozaki, Data base (Consultant) Dr. Aldo Moezzi, Data base (Optima) Dr. Michael Gordon, learning systems (Optima) Data analysis and statistical models Optima Inc. Confidential45

46 Contribution (continued) Jose Wong, statistical analysis (Optima) Michael Clements, programming (Optima) Sergio Beider, system design and programming (Optima) Yan Kitsis, system design and programming (Optima) Anil Garg, system design and programming (Optima) Dr. Li-Hui Tsai, Learning systems (Optima and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory) Dr. Woody Savage, (PG&E) Seismic Models Optima Inc. Confidential46

47 Framework of Tubis Plastic Failure Prediction Model Optima Inc. Confidential47

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