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The Tubis Family of Quantitative Systems

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Presentation on theme: "The Tubis Family of Quantitative Systems"— Presentation transcript:

1 The Tubis Family of Quantitative Systems
for Integrity Management of Gas Distribution Pipeline Networks Presentation to ONEOK Corporation January 19-21, 2010

2 Who is Optima Established in 1984
Pioneer in developing models and methods for large-scale decision and optimization problems in: Risk assessment and safety enhancement Asset management Maintenance and improvement strategies for infrastructure networks Optimal replacement and budget planning Characteristics of Problems Solved: Multi-objective problems with budget constraints Uncertainties, incomplete information and probabilistic consequences: optimal decisions under uncertainty Dynamic decisions and multi-stage planning Need for multi-disciplinary effort Optima Inc. Confidential

3 Systems for Gas Utilities
Tubis Comprehensive decision support tool for risk assessment, risk reduction and cost optimization of gas distribution networks Super-Tubis Unique optimization system for monitoring, coordinating, and allocating resources to independent networks to achieve corporate objectives while maintaining independence of network decisions SALAS Innovative, unique, fast and inexpensive tool for segmenting pipe networks and attaching pipe data and histories to individual pipes Meter Sampling and Replacement Model Optimal sampling of residential meters and optimal repair/replacement strategies Gas Supply Planning Model Optimal strategies for purchasing, storing and transporting natural gas when uncertainties in cost, capacity and availability exist Optima Inc. Confidential

4 Other Systems for Infrastructures
Pontis National bridge management system adopted by FHWA and AASHTO, implemented in 48 states. Won 1996 Edelman Prize Road Network Optimization System (NOS) Beginning with Arizona pavement management system, it has transformed network pavement management worldwide. Won 1982 Edelman Prize PRISM Latest generation of road management system implemented in several European countries ASOP System for optimal selection of performance levels—widely used in maintaining non-pavement elements and bridge management Multi-network Management System for City of Beijing Optima Inc. Confidential

5 Under Development Web-based Tubis system
Multi-attribute risk assessment model for plastic pipes (OTD and GTI) Tubis plastic module (ONEOK) Country-wide multi-network optimization model (Portugal, Hungary) Tubis for water networks- Pilot Tubis for electrical transmission networks (feasibility study for PSE&G) Optima Inc. Confidential

6 Awards The Institute for Management Sciences
1982 Winner of International TIMS Competition and Edelman Prize – for Arizona PMS The Institute for Operations Research and Management Sciences 1996 Edelman Finalist Prize – for Pontis Edelman Prize is an annual award to the winner of international competition for ‘the most innovative high impact application of management sciences’ Optima Inc. Confidential

7 Infrastructure Management Clients
Federal Highway Administration The World Bank Portugal National Road Directorate Ministry of Communications, Saudi Arabia States of California, Arizona, Kansas, Vermont, Washington, Minnesota, North Carolina City of San Francisco City of Beijing National Science Foundation The Urban Institute World Bank Optima Inc. Confidential

8 Energy Clients US Department of Energy Gas Research Institute
New York Gas Group Gas Technology Institute Rochester Gas and Electric Niagara Mohawk Central Hudson Gas and Electric Pacific Gas and Electric KeySpan Energy Corporation Optima Inc. Confidential

9 Energy Clients (continued)
British Gas Gaz de France Long Island Lighting Company Dominion: Pennsylvania, Ohio ONEOK Corporation New Jersey Natural Gas Consolidated Edison of NY CenterPoint Energy Public Service Electric and Gas Optima Inc. Confidential

10 Benefits of PMS in Arizona
Saved $14 million ($32 vs. $46 million in first year) Saved over $100 million in next 5 years Focal point of centralized decision process Coordinated data gathering and management Made budget requests defensible Optima Inc. Confidential

11 Impacts of Arizona PMS Pioneering system and impetus for Intermodal Surface Transportation Act Forms the core of courses in infrastructure mgt Some countries and states using the model: Arizona Kansas Alaska Colorado California New Jersey Holland Finland Portugal Hungary Australia (NSW) Saudi Arabia Greece Optima Inc. Confidential

12 Impacts of Pontis Major and influential system, adopted by Federal Highway Administration and AASHTO Implemented in 48 States Fundamentally changed all aspects of: Data gathering and information management Maintenance, repair and replacement decisions, and Federal funding allocations for managing bridge networks in US Adopted by several other countries Forms the core of infrastructure management courses in Berkeley, M.I.T. and Cornell, among others Optima Inc. Confidential

13 Impacts of Tubis Has influenced (we hope) risk management by introducing rigorous analytical methods and learning systems to deal with uncertainties Approved by NY PSC, CA PUC, OPS and NTSB Saved CHG&E 8 mill. in penalties Helped PG&E negotiate budget for cast iron replacement in San Francisco Helped RG&E settle long-standing regulatory issues Optima Inc. Confidential

14 Introducing our partner
PAconsulting.com

15 Introduction to PA Consulting
PA Consulting has a world-wide presence and is involved in Energy in many countries. PA is probably the largest utility consulting firm in the world Americas Boulder, CO Buenos Aires Cambridge, MA Chicago, Il Houston, TX Los Angeles, CA Madison, WI New York, NY Plainsboro, NJ Washington, DC Europe Belgium Italy Czech Republic Luxembourg Denmark Netherlands Finland Norway France Spain Germany Sweden Ireland United Kingdom Main U.S. Office In D.C. Asia-Pacific Australia Japan China Malaysia Hong Kong New Zealand Indonesia Singapore Revenues $ 660 Million Staffing: ~ 4,000 Optima and PA Group Inc. are working together to expand their footprint in this market. Optima Inc. Confidential

16 Who is PA? PA’s has a number of related practices. Over 20% of PA’s market share is in Energy. IT Consulting & Technology Systems Integration & Solutions Energy Global Business Transformation Strategy & Industries Government Transport & Infrastructure IT Strategy IS Implementation People & Organizational Change Financial Services Gov’t & Public Services IT Infrastructure Enterprise Wide Solutions Business Ops & Performance Manufacturing Infrastructure & Dev Services Decision Sciences Project Management Strategy & Marketing Transportation Life Sciences & Technology Wireless Technology Energy Business Transformation Product & Process Engineering Environmental & Resource Analytics Wholesale Energy Markets Energy Strategy & Risk Management Optima Inc. Confidential

17 Relevant Experience PA Energy Clients Optima Inc. Confidential

18 Management of Pipeline Networks

19 Regulatory Environment

20 The Problem What is the optimal balance between
Risk reduction Short-term costs Long-term costs Public perception What is the value of additional inspection/data? What additional data should be collected? What is the optimal pipe replacement policy? Optima Inc. Confidential

21 Objectives Reduce risks to public Reduce risks to property
Preserve investments in distribution systems Minimize expected long term costs Maintain reliability of service Meet regulatory concerns Coordinate with other activities Optima Inc. Confidential

22 Risk Management of Gas Pipes
knowledge Information Data Need More Information Analysis & Decision Making Individual Recommended Actions Optima Inc. Confidential

23 Issues New regulations External and internal economic concerns
Dynamism of budget planning Actions and budge spent now affect: future conditions future risks future actions needed future costs Decisions are made under uncertainty Optima Inc. Confidential

24 Areas of Uncertainty Physical condition of pipes
Soil environment of pipes Rates of deterioration Consistency of past information History on construction, repair and other activities Effect of various factors on failure rates Future regulatory requirements Optima Inc. Confidential

25 What needs to be done?

26 Approach Use common basis for assessment of all risks
Produce policies that can be quantified justified Show effect of policies (or lack of) on future conditions future risks future budget needs future asset value Optima Inc. Confidential

27 Design Considerations
Comprehensive information management, budget allocation, and planning tool Rigorous, defensible system Require minimum amount of past data Be easy to use and inexpensive to implement. Address corporate and regulatory concerns. Implement, improve and expand Compatible with GIS and other systems Optima Inc. Confidential

28 Overview Optima Incorporated
This presentation is confidential to Optima Inc. and should not be duplicated or distributed.

29 Objective Tubis is a comprehensive information management, gas pipeline maintenance and risk management system designed to assist gas utilities with decisions in maintenance and replacement planning and resource allocation. The principal objectives of the system are to help in: Increasing public safety, Reducing risks to property, Minimizing overall short and long term costs, and Preserving the integrity of the pipeline system Optima Inc. Confidential

30 Network Information Tubis Recommendations Replace Repair Mantain Risk
Specification Experience Replace History Risk Management Resource Allocation Repair Survey Mantain Maintenance Opportunity Policy Optima Inc. Confidential

31 Meeting Data Needs The foundation of Tubis information needs is a database of segments from your network and relevant info which is produced jointly with client. We can use geographic information system or a proprietary product developed by Optima, known as SALAS to build it. Geographic Information Company Leak Data Knowledge & Practice Dynamic Updating Optima Inc. Confidential

32 General Features of Tubis
A state-of-the-art system to assist planners in pipe replacement decisions A defensible tool for optimal budget planning A database management system for all relevant field, historical, and economic data. A formal mechanism for building on experience and judgment of engineers. Ability to automatically achieve higher accuracy with time. Optima Inc. Confidential

33 Functions of Tubis Pipe and leak dynamic information management
Risk assessment Risk management Optimal pipe replacement Network-wide risk management Network-wide optimization Optima Inc. Confidential

34 Characteristics of Tubis
Provides comprehensive information management Uses existing knowledge base Models learn automatically with time Extensive optimization capabilities Can coordinate with public work ‘opportunities’ Defensible risk and seismic models Considers economics, risk, environmental, segment specific data, population, and corporate policy Answers ‘what if ?’ questions Optima Inc. Confidential

35 Optimization and Planning Models
Provides answers for: budget planning resource allocation prioritization of replacements coordination with ‘opportunities’ effect of budget and length constraints entire or any subset of network resolution of conflicts captures dynamics of decision making utilities’ specific planning objectives Optima Inc. Confidential

36 Adaptive Learning of the Prediction Models
Learns from future data Adapts the probabilities and/or ranges Direct updating of the probabilities Indirect updating of the probabilities Optima Inc. Confidential

37 Risk Assessment and Quantification
Probability of corrosion leak, graphitization, break, and joint leak Various levels of risk consequences for every pipe segment in system Seismic activity on pipe rupture and its consequences as a result of Surface faulting Liquefaction Landslides Optima Inc. Confidential

38 Risk Assessment cont’d
Probability of gas entering buildings is calculated thru various engineering and geotechnical models. All aspects of economical and public safety issues are quantified. Optima Inc. Confidential

39 Tubis Considers the Risks of:
Effect of seismic activity on pipe rupture Surface faulting Liquefaction Landsliding Cast iron breaks Cast iron joint leaks Steel corrosion leaks Plastic slow growth failure Plastic breaks Plastic joint leaks Optima Inc. Confidential

40 Regulatory Evaluation and Acceptance
Tubis has been approved by: New York State Public Service Commission California Public Utilities Commission National Transportation Safety Board Optima Inc. Confidential

41 Optimal Segmental Policy Model
Quantifies risks and other factors in economic terms Detailed replacement cost calculations Sophisticated multi-period optimization model Defensible replacement priority ranking Optima Inc. Confidential

42 Network Risk Evaluation
Ranks all segments by risk For any budget finds optimal set of pipes to be replaced Can accept budgets as constraints by material network geographical divisions administrative divisions Can accept minimum replacement lengths as constraints Optima Inc. Confidential

43 The “Super Tubis” Corporate-wide administrative, auditing and budget planning tool Optimal allocation of resources Considers planning needs of each division in overall network decisions Considers budget policies Ties different regional TUBIS and related systems Possibility of expansion to transmission and service lines Optima Inc. Confidential

44 Benefits Provides least cost maintenance strategy, saves money and reduces risk Comprehensive Flexible, answers “what if” questions Addresses uncertain nature of pipeline risk and maintenance management Ties in different planning and budgetary policies Optima Inc. Confidential

45 Who contributed to Tubis?
Dr. Kamal Golabi, Principal Investigator Operations Research- modeling and optimization models (Optima) Dr. Chi-Hyuck Jun, Operations Research predictive models (Optima) Dr. James McNab, Corrosion Engineering corrosion models (Exponent) Dr. Rose Ray, Statistics (Exponent) Dr. Shirley Nozaki, Data base (Consultant) Dr. Aldo Moezzi, Data base (Optima) Dr. Michael Gordon, learning systems (Optima) Data analysis and statistical models Optima Inc. Confidential

46 Contribution (continued)
Jose Wong, statistical analysis (Optima) Michael Clements, programming (Optima) Sergio Beider, system design and programming (Optima) Yan Kitsis, system design and programming (Optima) Anil Garg, system design and programming (Optima) Dr. Li-Hui Tsai, Learning systems (Optima and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory) Dr. Woody Savage, (PG&E) Seismic Models Optima Inc. Confidential

47 Framework of Tubis Plastic Failure Prediction Model
Optima Inc. Confidential

48


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